DS: State, Belgrade govts. to match

Bganon,

"Kolundžija told journalists at parliament that once the government was formed, talks would continue on creating a Belgrade local authority"

- seems like D yeS have accepted the orders coming down from the likes of Solano & Co. - its more important for us you form a Euro-nationalist government sharpish - EULEX is waiting - then to give it all up on your petty insistance for a Belgrade Mayor!

What a U-turn and shows up a lack of bargaining position held by D yeS as you believed Bganon. Do they believe that having formed the goverenement tehir position will be any better - what will D yeS do pull the Govt ??? I very much doubt it it would not be so favourable that they were so petty to dissolve govt because Djilas is not Mayor!!! http://www.b92.net/eng/news/comments.php?nav_id=51497

Princip I hate to rain on your parade but you are wrong again. I don't agree with the viewpoint that those that govern Belgrade should also govern nationally or vice versa, nor have I ever.

If you bothered to actually listen before making your mind up as to what think a person believes, you would know this. Probably better for you to go back to repeating yourself, and making up silly names...

Oh, not that you will take any notice of what I'm going to say, but you might want to consider that DS will do what is in its best interest ahead of the interest of the country and that of the EU, - as every other political party in Serbia does. Shock horror! Princip doesn't actually think that political parties put their country ahead of their party interests...???

We still live in a party state Princip or have you not noticed?

By the way I'd tidy up on typos and grammar if I were you, if you are going to draw attention to grammar and spelling....

On the SPS question of making the census, that was a bad answer.

Lets consider the other options - not that I have looked into this a great deal.

1. DS/DSS/SPS? I don't think the DSS will agree.
2. DS/LDP/SPS? SPS have already dismissed it.
3. DSS/SRS/SPS? Looks like the most likely option.

Are there any others?

Princip we will see how 'bad' DS' position is when / if they make up central / Belgrade government.

You might want to remember that the parties with a poor negotiating position are those that will lose votes at the next election. Parties that would lose out will not want to quit the government. Thus we shall see G17 and SPS as stalwarts of the new government.

The only way SPS can escape being under the census in the next few years will be if they baulk in a scenario where Mladic is arrested and resign from the government on a matter of 'principle'. That would be a hell of an election. But I think its an outside bet, both on Mladic being found and arrested and on SPS quitting the government. I expect that if it did happen SPS would increase their support to about 8 percent.

I think we are looking in the wrong place. If anything its LDP that will be the 'danger'.

If DS drags its heels or gives in to too many SPS demands LDP could quit the government and pick up another 3-5 percent from DS.

Of course I may be wrong, but I'm prepared to stick my head on the block and hold my hands up if I get it wrong.

Bganon,

one thing is certain this shows up quite clearly that D yeS are in a very poor bargaining position and I guess this will be the case throughout such a government. Its a very precarious position and hardly gives confidence for foreign investment. Who will be the next scapegoat will be hanging over this governmnet during its existance!

Oh but please don't try to imply that a SRS government would be better for foreign investment.

That is simply untrue and I think you know it. If we are honest the sticking point about all this is Kosovo. Some truly believe that an SRS/DSS government can somehow fight a better battle to win Kosovo, but precious few SRS/DSS supporters will claim they will bring in more foreign investment than the DS led coaltion.

Bganon,

I would agree that LDP will be winners from DS in that scenario and realistically given the possible fragility of this minority govt its more likely then not that they will be kept in SPS check - if you gather my meaning. However such a fragile govt could be beneficial to both DS and SPS if they are wise - if!

I'll tend to disagree that foereign investment under an SRS govt wouldn't be as productive - it really matters on the perception of stability and guarantees for future returns by any investors and again if SRS were in govt and again if (sure big if) they were wise. However, I have seen a to certain degree that they would be wise to foreign investment and that an SRS dominated govt would and could be just as successful - though for now that is ironically specualtion.

So sure I'll retract my comment and place an if the politicians act rationally in the best interest of all this fragile minority govt will bring in foreign invetsment. However, they will need to increase the perception of a stable and lasting govt for this to be truly succesful. There must be clarity of direction and strength in which ever govt to build confidence for investors - the investors only care about what they can make in terms of profit and large investments need long term stability. In that respect kosovo is a crucial matter - since it remians unresolved and can and has brought down govts.

That said upon reflection the dynamics are all in place for a great deal of (positive) manipulation if D yeS get it right. A minority govt being checked by SPS may well last 4 four years if the pension issue is resolved next year - that is a big if and depends on the intransigence of PUPS on this voter promise.

However back to the dynamics since for SAA this minority will have LDP but for NIS sale they have SRS and DSS-NS to back up - this govt will be wise on its limitations and its (positive) manipulations. As I said all along I believe it is very crucial that clarity is placed on any Serbian ratification of SAA. I truly believe it is required since illegal declarations occurred and some have chosen to defile the most fundamental principle of contract law pact sunt servanda - which has been broken by many EU states over their obligations in upholding UN SC resolution 1244 and all other norms and laws associated with UN recognised sovereignity for any state. Serbia must make it very clear that it ratifies SAA in good faith that its sovereignty is respected - to not do so will IMHO weaken this fragile grouping of parties and lead to an election where there will be clear winners and losers as already discussed.

I noted Tadic's speech in Athens which lets hope is a sign of where things are headed but thus far not quite clear enough. He can say all he wants to the likes of Eurocrats in private and softly in public but they really need a kick up the proverbial to really comprehend the seriousness of the message - Kosovo is Serbia - and that is what an SRS govt would have definetly done! Thus far Tadic has shown himself as either naive or complicit in what is a clear "indecent proposal" if not now definetly in the future - that was clear from Wordsworth. The longer this wrong perception is allowed to be perceived by the EUcrats as acceptable the harder it will be to correct it. Examples are their of this perception be it Belguim FM's "understanding" or the Czech PM's view that a D yeS led govt is a green light to defile Serbia's sovereignty. I'd like to see Tadic view the same opinion that he did in Athens just as publically in Prague and in hindsight he should have done this weeks ago if he was to be seen as credible and genuine!

As for the matter of "suspected" war criminals lets not pussy foot - Serbia has an obligation just as any other state be it BiH or Monetnegro who could be just as equally hardbouring the likes of Mladic or Karadzic. SPS could not block that obligation any more or less then SRS or DSS-NS. In fact SRS upheld this obligation above all other parties when its leader surrendered himself to what ultimately is a NATO set up Kangaroo court to continue with the biased western perception that Serbs bad all others good as they peddled throughout the 90's - you know and the Hague knows it too! For the EU Mladic ad Karadzic arrest are just bluffs used as an excuse for delaying progression - I have said it before and this is nothing new in 2008 as it was the case in 2006;

" think we know the stance offered by the EU with regards enlargement so it is a bit of a bluff to suggest that the arrest of Mladic is the only delay in EU accession. Like Bildt said "We will keep the doors open for Serbia, so that it all depends on how fast Serbia walks towards the EU.” I notice he states walk rather then run - even if Mladic was arrested there are numerous other issues that would not allow Serbia to run into the EU even if it did everything immediately - not much incentive really is it!!!

The EU has plenty of constitutional issues that it must first correct before it could even think about enlargement - something that will take many years to iron out. Beyond that I think the EU is finally starting to ask itself what is it all about and this is the crux of the issue as it has too many members each with their own interpretation of what the EU is about - almost schizophrenic in nature.
" - see commnet 13 http://194.109.152.234/eng/news/comments.php?nav_id=38684

Bganon, if you wished to go through the archives you'll also find that for me Mladic has his own conscience to deal with and that is something he should be held accountable for not the rest of the Serbiain population! I said it before if I had done wrong I would hand myself in but that does not mean I would respect the kangaroo court that I would be convicted given it has been set up on under the mission statement of "innocent until proven Serb"! If that was not the case there would have been more non-Serbs wanted and a more equal distribution of sentencing lengths. Clear example - a war was established in that 300+ innocent souls were abducted from Serbia and taken out of the country - irrespective of what happend to their organs the clear war crime established of abduction and removal out of the country was dropped!

Thanks for the post Princip and for explaining some of your views, some of which I agree completely with.

I'll only add that I know a little about Mladic, or rather have spoken to some people who met him. My impression is that he does not believe he has done anything wrong, so has no conscience.

He is a general of the old school who believes that wars are won using all means. And to a degree he is right, if we look at history.

However, a minimum standard must be upheld and even though it might be more 'effective' to win a war by killing prisoners rather than imprisoning them one has to think of humanity.
He simply was not raised / trained to look at war in this way, but he must face trial nonetheless. He must hand himself over... yesterday.

On the other hand I'll be honest, personally speaking, I would rather shoot my own comrades in the back than murder a bunch of civilians begging me for mercy.

Princip I hate to rain on your parade but you are wrong again. I don't agree with the viewpoint that those that govern Belgrade should also govern nationally or vice versa, nor have I ever.

If you bothered to actually listen before making your mind up as to what think a person believes, you would know this. Probably better for you to go back to repeating yourself, and making up silly names...

Oh, not that you will take any notice of what I'm going to say, but you might want to consider that DS will do what is in its best interest ahead of the interest of the country and that of the EU, - as every other political party in Serbia does. Shock horror! Princip doesn't actually think that political parties put their country ahead of their party interests...???

We still live in a party state Princip or have you not noticed?

By the way I'd tidy up on typos and grammar if I were you, if you are going to draw attention to grammar and spelling....

On the SPS question of making the census, that was a bad answer.

Princip we will see how 'bad' DS' position is when / if they make up central / Belgrade government.

You might want to remember that the parties with a poor negotiating position are those that will lose votes at the next election. Parties that would lose out will not want to quit the government. Thus we shall see G17 and SPS as stalwarts of the new government.

The only way SPS can escape being under the census in the next few years will be if they baulk in a scenario where Mladic is arrested and resign from the government on a matter of 'principle'. That would be a hell of an election. But I think its an outside bet, both on Mladic being found and arrested and on SPS quitting the government. I expect that if it did happen SPS would increase their support to about 8 percent.

I think we are looking in the wrong place. If anything its LDP that will be the 'danger'.

If DS drags its heels or gives in to too many SPS demands LDP could quit the government and pick up another 3-5 percent from DS.

Of course I may be wrong, but I'm prepared to stick my head on the block and hold my hands up if I get it wrong.

Oh but please don't try to imply that a SRS government would be better for foreign investment.

That is simply untrue and I think you know it. If we are honest the sticking point about all this is Kosovo. Some truly believe that an SRS/DSS government can somehow fight a better battle to win Kosovo, but precious few SRS/DSS supporters will claim they will bring in more foreign investment than the DS led coaltion.

Bganon,

"Kolundžija told journalists at parliament that once the government was formed, talks would continue on creating a Belgrade local authority"

- seems like D yeS have accepted the orders coming down from the likes of Solano & Co. - its more important for us you form a Euro-nationalist government sharpish - EULEX is waiting - then to give it all up on your petty insistance for a Belgrade Mayor!

What a U-turn and shows up a lack of bargaining position held by D yeS as you believed Bganon. Do they believe that having formed the goverenement tehir position will be any better - what will D yeS do pull the Govt ??? I very much doubt it it would not be so favourable that they were so petty to dissolve govt because Djilas is not Mayor!!! http://www.b92.net/eng/news/comments.php?nav_id=51497

Lets consider the other options - not that I have looked into this a great deal.

1. DS/DSS/SPS? I don't think the DSS will agree.
2. DS/LDP/SPS? SPS have already dismissed it.
3. DSS/SRS/SPS? Looks like the most likely option.

Are there any others?

Bganon,

one thing is certain this shows up quite clearly that D yeS are in a very poor bargaining position and I guess this will be the case throughout such a government. Its a very precarious position and hardly gives confidence for foreign investment. Who will be the next scapegoat will be hanging over this governmnet during its existance!

Bganon,

I would agree that LDP will be winners from DS in that scenario and realistically given the possible fragility of this minority govt its more likely then not that they will be kept in SPS check - if you gather my meaning. However such a fragile govt could be beneficial to both DS and SPS if they are wise - if!

I'll tend to disagree that foereign investment under an SRS govt wouldn't be as productive - it really matters on the perception of stability and guarantees for future returns by any investors and again if SRS were in govt and again if (sure big if) they were wise. However, I have seen a to certain degree that they would be wise to foreign investment and that an SRS dominated govt would and could be just as successful - though for now that is ironically specualtion.

So sure I'll retract my comment and place an if the politicians act rationally in the best interest of all this fragile minority govt will bring in foreign invetsment. However, they will need to increase the perception of a stable and lasting govt for this to be truly succesful. There must be clarity of direction and strength in which ever govt to build confidence for investors - the investors only care about what they can make in terms of profit and large investments need long term stability. In that respect kosovo is a crucial matter - since it remians unresolved and can and has brought down govts.

That said upon reflection the dynamics are all in place for a great deal of (positive) manipulation if D yeS get it right. A minority govt being checked by SPS may well last 4 four years if the pension issue is resolved next year - that is a big if and depends on the intransigence of PUPS on this voter promise.

However back to the dynamics since for SAA this minority will have LDP but for NIS sale they have SRS and DSS-NS to back up - this govt will be wise on its limitations and its (positive) manipulations. As I said all along I believe it is very crucial that clarity is placed on any Serbian ratification of SAA. I truly believe it is required since illegal declarations occurred and some have chosen to defile the most fundamental principle of contract law pact sunt servanda - which has been broken by many EU states over their obligations in upholding UN SC resolution 1244 and all other norms and laws associated with UN recognised sovereignity for any state. Serbia must make it very clear that it ratifies SAA in good faith that its sovereignty is respected - to not do so will IMHO weaken this fragile grouping of parties and lead to an election where there will be clear winners and losers as already discussed.

I noted Tadic's speech in Athens which lets hope is a sign of where things are headed but thus far not quite clear enough. He can say all he wants to the likes of Eurocrats in private and softly in public but they really need a kick up the proverbial to really comprehend the seriousness of the message - Kosovo is Serbia - and that is what an SRS govt would have definetly done! Thus far Tadic has shown himself as either naive or complicit in what is a clear "indecent proposal" if not now definetly in the future - that was clear from Wordsworth. The longer this wrong perception is allowed to be perceived by the EUcrats as acceptable the harder it will be to correct it. Examples are their of this perception be it Belguim FM's "understanding" or the Czech PM's view that a D yeS led govt is a green light to defile Serbia's sovereignty. I'd like to see Tadic view the same opinion that he did in Athens just as publically in Prague and in hindsight he should have done this weeks ago if he was to be seen as credible and genuine!

As for the matter of "suspected" war criminals lets not pussy foot - Serbia has an obligation just as any other state be it BiH or Monetnegro who could be just as equally hardbouring the likes of Mladic or Karadzic. SPS could not block that obligation any more or less then SRS or DSS-NS. In fact SRS upheld this obligation above all other parties when its leader surrendered himself to what ultimately is a NATO set up Kangaroo court to continue with the biased western perception that Serbs bad all others good as they peddled throughout the 90's - you know and the Hague knows it too! For the EU Mladic ad Karadzic arrest are just bluffs used as an excuse for delaying progression - I have said it before and this is nothing new in 2008 as it was the case in 2006;

" think we know the stance offered by the EU with regards enlargement so it is a bit of a bluff to suggest that the arrest of Mladic is the only delay in EU accession. Like Bildt said "We will keep the doors open for Serbia, so that it all depends on how fast Serbia walks towards the EU.” I notice he states walk rather then run - even if Mladic was arrested there are numerous other issues that would not allow Serbia to run into the EU even if it did everything immediately - not much incentive really is it!!!

The EU has plenty of constitutional issues that it must first correct before it could even think about enlargement - something that will take many years to iron out. Beyond that I think the EU is finally starting to ask itself what is it all about and this is the crux of the issue as it has too many members each with their own interpretation of what the EU is about - almost schizophrenic in nature.
" - see commnet 13 http://194.109.152.234/eng/news/comments.php?nav_id=38684

Bganon, if you wished to go through the archives you'll also find that for me Mladic has his own conscience to deal with and that is something he should be held accountable for not the rest of the Serbiain population! I said it before if I had done wrong I would hand myself in but that does not mean I would respect the kangaroo court that I would be convicted given it has been set up on under the mission statement of "innocent until proven Serb"! If that was not the case there would have been more non-Serbs wanted and a more equal distribution of sentencing lengths. Clear example - a war was established in that 300+ innocent souls were abducted from Serbia and taken out of the country - irrespective of what happend to their organs the clear war crime established of abduction and removal out of the country was dropped!

Thanks for the post Princip and for explaining some of your views, some of which I agree completely with.

I'll only add that I know a little about Mladic, or rather have spoken to some people who met him. My impression is that he does not believe he has done anything wrong, so has no conscience.

He is a general of the old school who believes that wars are won using all means. And to a degree he is right, if we look at history.

However, a minimum standard must be upheld and even though it might be more 'effective' to win a war by killing prisoners rather than imprisoning them one has to think of humanity.
He simply was not raised / trained to look at war in this way, but he must face trial nonetheless. He must hand himself over... yesterday.

On the other hand I'll be honest, personally speaking, I would rather shoot my own comrades in the back than murder a bunch of civilians begging me for mercy.