Chukuriuk
pre 15 godina
NATO and Russia going to war?
Wow, some of you need to put the pipe down, or put the war games away, or just get some fresh air and sunshine...
Aside from the unlikeliness of that scenario, it is even unlikely that Russia will intervene directly in the South Caucasus, however much you might click your heels and wish for it. To quote from a Jan. '08 TOL article by Valery Dzutsev (fairly old but still the smartest thing I've read on the subject):
"Any decisive outcome of the Georgian conflicts might potentially have negative implications for Russia. On the one hand, if South Ossetia and Abkhazia are reintegrated into Georgia, Russia will not be able to hinder Georgian progress into NATO. This would also send a message to the Russian North Caucasus and could trigger the revival of rebellions there and further jeopardize security in an already precarious region.
"On the other hand, if the restive Georgian territories are recognized by Russia and borders are changed, Russia loses some of its leverage in Georgia. Furthermore, it could trigger a conflict that would require intervention by Russian troops, creating a risky political situation as the Russian public is still wary of the human cost of the Chechen conflict.
"There is another huge risk to recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Conceding their separation from Georgia could give rise to other separatist movements, and not just in Chechnya. The Russian Federation is the most multinational – and therefore one of the most prone to break up along ethnic lines – among the countries of the former Soviet Union. In other words, Russia might gain new territory at the expense of Georgia, but might have to fight to retain the integrity of its borders elsewhere."
Yes, despite all appearances, Smiley's "bear" is walking a tightrope here folks... and however much it growls and waves its paws it's not likely to hurl itself into the abyss just to gratify a few loopy nationalists (of whichever country, theirs or yours). Pretty smart critters, those bears. Smarter than those carrion birds, eagles, I think (I hope)
Peace, C
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