Sources: Radical new mayor of Belgrade

This is an excellent news, which also means that DSS-NS-SPS-SRS alliance is almost a fact.
Now to form the government of Serbia, independent of foreign stooges.

Hold the speculation and wait till the annoucement tomorrow.

That said if the new Government coalition is declared tomorrow already then that is an excellent and strong start for Serbian governance. Clearly much detail will still need to be ironed out and it is important that everyone is clear on the difficult and hard task ahead. With the likes of some in the west who will create hurdles and challenges Serbia will face a task ahead but nothing is insurmountable and the US and many in the west have economic difficulties to face themselve to create too many new ones for Serbia. Not only that but lets hope the US has a change in the right direction when they hold their Presidential elections - the world is holding its breath for that!

Ultimately the sooner the national government is formed the sooner it can get on with governing ALL of Serbia by standing (Устани) proud, supporting (Подржи) economic development for all and going forward (Напред) !!!

Excellent news! Vucic is a very energetic and bright young man, and I am sure he will make an excellent mayor for Belgrade.
I am very happy to see that the SRS-DSS-SPS are co-operating, despite the propoganda you hear from the DS and Solana's boys.
Cheers!

Congragulations to the Mayor!

This is great. I am living it.
Seeing Radicals make a new Serbian Government that will be the greatest thing for Kosova. "Congratulation" Serbia, you got what you wished for, Radicals for your government.

That's good !!

Wake up my loved country!
WAKE UP SERBIA!!

willie sorry my friend but I don't believe you - unless that you can name senior individuals involved that is.

And by the sounds of it your analysis of G17 is pretty out of tune as well.

Nice try at leading me a merry dance though :)

I guess the bridge over the Ada won't be built after all then...

Still perhaps it won't matter, if we all put on badges it will surely solve all of our problems!

bganon,

I see you're not a fan of the SRS then?

Regarding our other exchange on another thread, my source in the DS is somewhat concerned about the long term viability of his party when it is a well known secret that certain senior individuals in the party have already promised the international community their acquiescence in seeing Pristina fully independent.

As to G17, they are, like the DSS, bordering on becoming a spent force unless they 'modernise'. I suspect they are both quite incapable of the feat and will both just resort to opportunistically riding the coat-tails of whichever mainstream party offers the best deal.

Hello bganon,

It's a shame you do not practise what you preach.

Belgrade is alive with political rumors and gossip of all shapes, sizes and colors.

You may bring what you like to B92 and allow the reader to form their own opinion. You can chose to dismiss outright rumors and gossip brought by others, and you can do so at your own peril.

I cannot think of a single aquaintance in a position of influence in the SRS. Probably because we share so little in common. On the otherhand, I have a handful of personal friends and numerous aquaintences at most levels of the DS and G17 parties. Nevertheless, I am still able to avoid being blinded by the public rhetoric.

On Sunday evening, the President claimed victory for his party and proclaimed that nobody should form a government against the wishes of the people. Hmmmm! Somewhat premature methinks on a number of levels.

The DS remains only the second largest party in Serbia and the 'EU leaning bloc' (ZeS-LDP) can muster no more than 44-45% of the popular vote. Hardly victory, and certainly no mandate to dictate who should or should not form the next government.

The DS probably offers Serbia the best future. That is why I, and others, fear the potential whiplash to their recent campaigning methods.

Listen to the President now. Apparently, the DS shares exactly the same ideology as the Socialists. So you want to live in a socialist state do you bganon? Or do you consider this is another of the President's politically expedient lies?

Is Dacic the mystery non-DS candidate for PM that the President hinted at a couple of weeks back? Or was it the former (twice) deputy-PM Covic?

Willie whether other people believe me or not is not something I'm concerned with.

People can make their own minds up. If somebody holds a consistent view and appears to have some knowledge and gets a few things right then I will have time for them, no matter which party they support.

If on the other hand they are not interested in facts, constantly harp on what they wish to be true - rather than the reality, place a heavy emphasis upon avenging this or that, then again, no matter which option they support, I won't have much time for them.

You revealed that your agenda is not to engage in discussion but to prove a point. By concocting a story about DS (ostensibly to get one up on DS that you hate, but to also prove the point to me that it is possible to invent stories) you've shown that you arent worth the tapping on my keyboard.

Willie with all due respect you quoted me a report in Kurir, then equated the president with Kurir which not only contradictory but patently untrue.

Tadic may lie upon occasion, but he is nowhere near the level of Kurir. If you don't know this you truly don't have a clue.

And his 'entire campaign based on lies'. If you want to have a serious discussion with me this kind of rubbish needs explanation. For sure there were exaggerations but an 'entire campaign' of lies, from you who proclaim to be 'able to avoid being blinded by public rhetoric'.

You say that DS remains the second largest party in Serbia. Just a little thought must push you to consider something else. Remember you alluded a day or so ago to the fact that G17 would struggle to reach the census and needs to hang onto coat-tails etc? If you are correct well, lets be generous and say they have 6 percent support. Where does that leave DS exactly? The most supported party in Serbia by about 3 points. Even if we G17 could get 8 percent it would still leave DS as the largest party in Serbia. But I'm not sure what your point is anyway. What irks me is your lack of thought on this.

Yeah what Tadic said was premature and silly, probably inspired through the buzz of coming first, wow, you know, how important is that exactly in the scheme of things?

Yes I do want to live in a centre left, that is a democratic socialist state. One that mitigates the excesses of capitalism and helps the less well off. Having said that I occasionally agree with centre right philosophy. What kind of state do you want to live in? A state where workers don't have rights or are not paid pensions on time? I am genuine on this and at this stage don't have reason to doubt Tadic on this subject either. Read the DS manifesto.

Just wondering if you say that DS offers the best future then why the fixation on criticising that party. Are you trying to balance things up on this site?

I think you should also tell your friends in G17 and DS what you said here. I'd be interested to see whether they found some of your comments more constructive than I did.

bganon,

So, you feel it an 'honest' an 'equal' discussion where you expect me and others to accept your gossip from anonymous sources as factual on the excuse that, "I would reveal it [the source] but it could get B92 into trouble."

On the otherhand, you are unwilling to consider anybody else's gossip from anonymous sources, "unless ... you can name senior individuals involved that is."

Well the answer is bganon, that I 'can' name senior individuals, but 'choose' not to for their sake not that of a media outlet.

I have no brief from any political party here in Serbia or elsewhere. I am not particularly interested in domestic politics per se. Nevertheless, I find it hugely entertaining reading the words of public gossip mongers such as yourself who think you can influence opinion with your humorous anecdotes.

And at the same time, close your eyes and refuse to contemplate other gossip which doesn't fit your personal paradigm.

And as regards to the factual reliability of Kurir, yes, it is often found wanting. However, no less so than the President himself who has built an entire election campaign upon lies!

Hello bganon,

Kurir carried interviews and direct quotations from Ilic and Markovic. Both were posed questions framed precisely to explore the rumors that you promulgate - it was not just some Kurir commentary.

Ignoring direct quotations simply because you distrust Kurir and don't both to read it is, in my opinion, rather naive. Dismissing specific content when you haven't bothered to read it is, well????

I believe the DSS and G17 are heading for the fringes of parliamentary representation rather than mainstream organisation. This puts them into the same category as LDP and SPS: 5-7% This does not mean whitewash as experienced by SPO last year.

In 2003, G17 polled 438K; last year 275K; this year unknown. If the public were give a choice between DS and G17, who would they have chosen?

As you point out, either DS has grown from 23% to 30% and G17 has shrunk - or G17 has grown and DS is significantly behind SRS. It cannot be both.

How many seats will DS have in parliament? How many will SRS have? As regards which had the highest share of the popular vote, it is impossible to tell.

The DS campaign was characterised by two main themes: we will get you into EU sooner than the others; but we also won't give up Kosovo without a fight. I think the line went something like, 'better to fight for Kosovo from with EU than from the outside'.

So, given that the EU has, at the policy level, decided to recognise Kosovo as independent and encourage it to join the organisation as an equal to Serbia, it is fundamentally impossible to get into the EU unless Serbia has given up ALL claim to the territory of Kosovo. You cannot have EU and Kosovo unless the EU decides to do a u-turn on its current strategic vision.

Second, it has been made abundantly clear that, irrespective of the Kosovo issue, Serbia will not be closing on EU membership until AFTER full cooperation with ICTY has been established. Does Tadic have it in his power, and the intention, to arrest General Mladic and extradite him to the Hague? If not, then - unless the EU does yet another major u-turn on ICTY - the DS does not offer any quicker route to EU than the DSS.

The two main campaign points used by the DS were founded upon outright untruths - or, at the very least, an ignorance of the mutual incompatability of their policies. I do not believe that the DS leadership is stupid. The rest was just window dressing - irrespective of its veracity.

Serbian politics is in a real mess. Choosing the DS as the 'best' is no more than trying to pick the 'lesser evil' of those on offer. By doing so, I do not feel in any way obliged to simply ignore their failings and refrain from criticism. I'd like Serbs to realise that all they have on offer is mutton, even though some is dressed very beautifully - and marketed as - as prime cuts of lamb.

I have expressed my criticism directly to those anonyomous figures of whom I speak. The reception was varied. :)

On an economic and social policy level, SRS is more 'socially' attuned than the DS. In that sense, their policies would better fit your leanings. This suggest that your preference for DS/G17 over SRS is not based on their domestic policy.

Experience over the past 50 years, and particularly the past 20, have indicated (caring) capitalism provides far greater growth and prosperity to the majority than any (populist) socialist paradigm. Admittedly, it has yet to solve the problem of how to deal satisfactorarily with how to deal with the small minority who are most needy and those of the welfare class - those who could work, but choose not to because welfare handouts are more lucrative.

Tadic may well have been grandstanding on Sunday night. Nevertheless, it demonstrats his political weaknesses and exposes him to political attack from with and from without. I would not like to get B92 into trouble by naming names, but there is at least one very real-life brutus plotting his downfall within the DS. Tadic needs an SPS rabbit to appear from the hat very quickly.

We have never met bganon, so you have no idea who I am - unless you have asked friends in B92 to trace my IP. It is clear from your words, that you have decided to interpret my words in a way that does not accord to my thinking. This has lead you into a false perception of what my words represent and thus the credibility of some of my comments. Not fitting your paradigm doesn't make them irrelevent.

Willie I didn't interpret your words I merely reminded you of what you previously wrote. Now that all of a sudden you have become serious and reasonable don't blame me for forming the wrong impression of you.
I genuinely invite you to briefly re-read what you wrote and see for yourself.

I'm also a little uncertain as to whether you still believe that Tadic is as factually reliable as Kurir. Do you take that back? As I believe I've shown its not that Tadic is so great, its that Kurir is notorious. And I don't avoid reading it and just call it notorious through snobbishness either, I read it.

We generally agree about the fate of G17 and DSS but I'd add that G17 are in a way victim of DS recent success but don't forget G17's political fortunes were borne from DS misfortunes the Bodrums, basically a protest vote so its hardly surprising. Kostunica has just been inept, suffers from a lack of vision and is simply unwilling to make tough decisions.

So - we will get you into the EU sooner than the others. That DS claim was true, further a vote for DS was a mandate to locate / arrest Ratko Mladic. If voters don't know by now that he is an obstruction to EU progress they never will. Thus if they vote for EU they vote to resolve Mladic. Of course with the current situation it will prove difficult dealing with SPS on this but if a government is formed I believe SPS will bite their tounges on this - for a price.

I've tried to read your comments on Kosovo / EU a number of times but still don't understand them. There simply is no condition meaning that Serbia must recognise Kosovo in order to enter the EU. There will be problems down the line perhaps - although Kosovo will be years behind Serbia in EU integration but Serbia cannot be forced.

You are half right with SRS and their social aspect but their concern (as is DSS') is not based on a deeply held belief that society should be fair, it is based upon placating what they see as their constituency of voters. And it is precisely SRS that is the most populist party in Serbia. What is the significance of relating populism to socialism? I am not referring to preferring socialism of the home grown variety. I'm talking of democratic socialism of the type seen in Sweden for example or if we have to go back in history the Clement Atlee type. The populist parties in Serbia today are not truly democratically socialist in the slightest SRS, DSS and PSS. They are manipulative and cynical and have mercilessly abused the Kosovo issue for example. A truly democratic socialist party would never adopt such a position. As for SRS economic policies I truly believe they don't have any. They have implied as much by handing over these portfolio's to DSS, with the exception of Minister of Finance. That would be fun.

Well Brutus would be a nice description of a key member of DS with a grizzly voice and a beard, but he hasn't got the muscle to topple Tadic. No, I don't think there is a chance in hell of that happening after DS performance in the last 2 elections and were DS to sit in opposition you must know that their support could only rise...

Hello bganon,

(mis)interpretations:
You misinterpreted "spent force" and "riding the coat tails" as the inability to attain 5% of the popular vote. You misinterpreted my reference to Kurir as simply their commentary. I criticise DS and Tadic, you misinterpret this as my support for the SRS. I could go on, but I hope you now understand the point.

Tadic v Kurir:
I would trust neither as far as I could throw them. To try and establish which is the least untrustworthy is not possible without a very lengthy analysis.

DS v G17:
Indeed, they are for the same vote. For me, G17 lost it's 'inclusive' appeal after Dinkic re-enacted the Night of the Long Knives.

EU entry:
I do not accept that DS will get Serbia into EU 'quicker and less painfully' than any other party. All the important variables are beyond DS's control. The only real weopan they have in their armory that DSS/SRS do not possess is the twin notions of capitulation and subservience.

EU v Kosovo:
There is no written condition that Serbia must first recognise an independent Kosovo before entry to the EU. It is a fact of life that no candidate will be admitted if they make claims over territory of a neighbor - or worse still another candidate. Macedonia is going nowhere fast just because Greece doesn't like the name and infers this is an implicit claim on their territory! Nevertheless, there are reams of documents specifying what is expected of candidate countries in regards to regional cooperation. Claiming another sovereign state as an illegal entity is not really what the EU is about.

Social policy:
We may have to agree to disagree on this point, but in my opinion 90% of social policy is based upon political parties propping up their core voter support - irrespective of whether it is SRS, DS or even New Labour in the UK. To get into the EU, Serbia is going to have to massively REDUCE its social spending in order to meet financing and budgetry harmonisation. One of the reasons why a 'socialist' DS is not going to close on the EU as quick as they will have you believe.

Brutus:
The individual of whom I speak is sharpening his cutlery as we speak. He is clean-shaven. And this one 'thinks' he has the power to topple. My analysis is he doesn't, but has enough muscle to cause a real mess and an implosion. Not forming a government after the 'promises' made, is a likely trigger point for action. There again, maybe it was all just grandstanding and polite mutterings of agreement that I was party to.

Willie a way to stop misinterpretations from others is to use clear language, which doesn't come easy for those that like to remain ambiguous and claim afterward that they meant something else.

It would have been easy for you to solve the question in your last post but I'll have to ask you now. How much of the grand total for the DS coalition was for G17?

I don't believe you are unable to distinguish between degrees of trust such as a comparison between Tadic and Kurir. We make these types of decisions about greater and lesser evils every day. For example today in Kurir we had a bit of child pornography. Is that Tadic's level, really? Is admitting an exaggeration a problem for you?

I do believe that DS will get Serbia into the EU more quickly, but less painfully is your addendum. It will be painful, but life is.

Radical language again (not SRS but radical none the less) 'capitulation and subservience'. For a while you can sound quite reasonable but in the end... Let me give you my perspective - obstructionism, overly proud and inability to create a constructive solution for Kosovo or the EU issue. I am of course referring to Kostunica. And perhaps it isn't so much a case of DS doing it faster, perhaps its a case of Kostunica doing it slower, but it amounts to the same thing. I do, by the way, think that all of Kosovo could be lost if 'negotiations' (which have not finished in my humble) are undertaken by Kostunica / SRS. Do you truly believe that Kostunica / SRS can save Kosovo, make the situation better for Serbs?

Your Greek example on the EU issue doesn't stand up by the way for reasons we know full well - Greece is a member of the EU, Kosovo is not.

Hello bganon,

G17 popular support within ZeS:
You should know that that answer is impossible to determine accurately unless you have a lie detector attached to each and every one of those who circled 1 when you ask the question: 'who did you vote for?' Knowingly asking questions that are manifestly impossible to determine is dishonest debate - or deliberate spoiling by one schooled in 'spin'.

Admitting exaggerations:
No problem for me. On reflection, the 90% statement was a tad bold.

Pornography:
Does the President have a reason to discuss pornography publically? I understand that he has a reputation for a wandering eye.... :) What has a Kurir article about said subject got to do with having 'trust' in those that are elected to represent oneself? Kurir can invent stories as much as it likes and it will have little bearing on Serbia's future. Just a little white lie from the President can have unimaginable consequences.

I suggest that your accusation about not being "..able to distinguish between degrees of trust" may well be better suited to yourself.

Radical language:
I've never been called a 'radical' before. I shall bask in the 'glory' of a first. Can I wear a badge too? :)

I repeat, the main factors determining Serbia's entry to the EU are beyond DS's control (any party for that matter). The only 'aces' that the DS holds is their willingness to be far more 'amenable' to EU/US demands. Is that a little less radical for you?

If you doubt the validity of my words on this matter, then I encourage you to demonstrate what exactly the DS will be doing to advance EU membership.

Remember, the the recently signed SAA is worthless until: first, full cooperation with the ICTY is established (ie Mladic) by the EU Council and second, each individual member state ratifies the document in their national parliaments. Does the President have the intent AND capacity to comply with this?

This is just the first, the very first, step required along a very tortuous path to acceptance.

DSS/SRS saving Kosovo:
Kosovo was lost in 1998-9 by Milosevic - my opinion! Nevertheless, that doesn't excuse in any way the process implemented by the international community.

Moreover, given that my opinion is irrelevant, the Serbian electorate has chosen to vote as follows:-
Turn our back on Kosovo: 5%
Do everything possible to keep Kosovo: 40-48%
Fight for Kosovo within EU (allegedly): 38%

Can DSS/SRS save it? Probably not. However, there seems a pretty strong indicator that fighting for Kosovo is still a significant aspect of domestic politics.

The DS keeps putting out communiques (appearing here on B92 and elsewhere) that they do not consider any government other than one lead by themselves as morally legitimate (my paraphrasing) - they concede it's perfectly legal - because they were victorious. Head in sand denial from a party who had deluded itself into victory only to see itself defeated. ZeS=38%:DSS/NS-SRS=41% Thankfully their logic did not apply for the past XX years otherwise Nikolic would have been PM for the entire period!

Willie in your final slightly triumphalistic statement I see that you added together the SRS and DSS total, as if they stood together. That total neither describes the election results, nor the final electoral deal reached by the parties. Tadic may have got ahead of himself, but you are doing something similar here.

Its a pity you show full ability to give your estimations on a whole host of subjects including figures on those that would turn their backs on kosovo, but call for lie detector tests to find out how many people voted for G17. Its a dishonest defence. You do have an estimate on the G17 figure, but you won't say it because if you exaggerate it to make your argument true (that SRS was the most voted for party) it will appear silly. The alternative is climbing down on your earlier statement. By the way, I think you will find climbing down, or admitting mistakes is not a problem for me.

Putting Tadic and Kurir on the same level of truth-telling or 90 percent it just absurd. Such outlandish statements do you no credit.

On Kosovo, there is a crucial difference between fighting for something and being seen to fight for something. More importantly than either fighting for something or impressing the electorate with grandiose statements, is the final result. Unless a coherent plan is made for a solution rather than the yelling of slogans, wearing of badges, outpourings of emotion, there is no chance to salvage anything in Kosovo. Its a clear as crystal that this DSS/SRS approach on Kosovo will fail, above all because it is not aimed at resolving Kosovo, rather it is aimed at impressing the Serb(ian) people. They key question SRS/DSS are facing is whether the Serbian people will be impressed by a supposed almighty battle and loss of Kosovo rather than a true compromise, which will be interpreted by the patriotic lobby as a defeat. They are afraid of what this would do to their constituency. Thus Kosovo is bound to be lost with SRS/DSS.

I'd say that results of the election have shown that Kosovo is not the all important issue it used to be, that considering the crisis its a surprise that more didn't vote for the patriotic parties.

Please read more carefully I have already spoken of the mandate for EU SAA and thus to resolve Hague co-operation. Provided SPS don't make problems I am confident that one way or another it (Mladic) will be resolved by a DS led government. I am equally confident that SRS/DSS would not resolve this issue. And no I don't think that Belgium and Holland will obstruct once the Hague issues a satisfactory report. So provided SPS doesn't obstruct yes he does is my answer to your question. And if we do get a ds led government you can hold me to this. If I'm wrong I will state it openly and condemn Tadic for not delivering. So much for SAA.

As for EU entry you are right but usually it gets you to your destination quicker if you stand in the queue rather than loiter around in the car park, promising to stand in the queue one day (and a part of you has no intention of standing in the queue, never mind getting on the train).

Yes in a way Kosovo was lost by Milosevic in 98-99 but it was probably lost before then. Still, you do realise don't you that it is sacrilege to talk like this? Because if you say this its easy to be accused by the populists that you support Kosovo independence, or those that claim that you won't fight hard enough for Kosovo.

Now theres another contradiction!



I'd say that that your altered description was far less loaded with emotional/populistic language yes. Far more clear what you mean as well. But you are wrong that the US demands have anything to do with the signing of the SAA. And the EU 'demands' as you call them, are in fact not demands, they are conditions to sign SAA. A demand suggests that action, military or otherwise will be taken if the 'demand' is not fulfilled.

Hello bganon,

Triumphalism:
A DSS/NS-SRS pact is not a done deal. Accepted. But they are being now being touted as one by just about everybody when it comes to calculating likely outcomes.

G17 popular support:
Now you read minds do you? Well, if you do, your literacy is poor. I do not know how many votes G17 picked up at this election.

I have no idea how you can state that I have an estimate of the G17 vote. Such a figure simply does not exist.

Unless you can demonstrate a reliable way of calculating precisely how the ZeS vote is divided, all I can work on is the following analysis:

January 2007: DS 23.1%; G17 6.9%; SPO 3.4%; LSV ??; SDP ?? - Total 33.4% (excl. LSV)
May 2008 (estimated): ZeS 38.4%; SRS 29.4%

For DS to have received a greater share of the vote than SRS, it requires an increase from 23.1% to 29.5% ie 6.4%. Yet the ZeS result is just 5% greater than last January's combined total (ignoring LSV). So, if DS is now more popular than SRS (ie gained that 6.4%) it has grown at the expense of G17 and/or SPO.

The numbers are really not that hard to understand.

90%:
My 90% 'admission' refered to my comment that "90% of socialist policy...". Look back to confirm. That, I now consider, was a tad exaggerated. I have not changed my view on Tadic/Kurir. I do not consider them outlandish in any respect. They just don't fit your paradigm.

Kosovo:
The fate of Kosovo is beyond Serbia's hands - albeit not fully decided. Whether we speak of DSS, SRS, DS or LDP. Until people here realise that fact - yourself included - there will be forever a debate about who could/would have done better!

So, in that respect, fighting or giving the illusion of fighting is indeed exactly the same - IRRELEVANT! With one exception, one is not lieing about their actions and intentions.

Patriotic support:
'Patriotic support' is greater than 'non-patriotic support' in Serbia, and you try to dismiss it as an irrelevancy. ??

EU entry timing:
The big plan is for HR, CG, BiH, SR, MK and Kosovo all to join at the same time. Whether DS (in the queue) or SRS (in the car park) is at the helm, the entry date is going to be determined, amongst other things, by the slowest candidate.

Independence:
I do agree with independence for Kosovo. I have no fear of saying that outloud and in public. Look what I just did. However, I have a major problem with the manner in which this is being implemented (it's plain wrong) and have deep concerns (fears) for the future both regionally and worldwide.

Demands:
There are more demands upon Serbia than I have time to write if my diary was free for the next week. The SAA is actually an irrelevance in the bigger picture - however hyped the act of signing was made out here in Serbia.

Willie ok so you don't know, are not able to estimate how much support the DS led coalition received from G17 and thus whether DS has more support than SRS.

Well my opinion, and note I said opinion, is that 6.5 is about their score. It would be lower but I actually think that they impressed with the brawling, whilst the DS campaign was more aloof. I don't consider Draskovic a factor any longer by the way and that poll's estimate seems generous to me. By the way its funny isn't it that as soon as write my estimate of the G17 figure it exists. It may not be right but I'm not going to pretend that I don't have an estimate because I can't find the exact figure.

But remember that you stated that DS came second. Its interesting (not in the sense that I suspect you secretly support SRS, but in the sense that you are prone to outlandish statements and don't much like to backtrack) that you said that DS came second to SRS. If you claim not to know how much support DS had on its own then on what do you base your opinion that SRS came first? Which numbers have you 'understood'? Where does this figure 'exist'?

I did not dismiss 'patriotic' support as an irrelevancy at all. I said that it is surprising that in the current situation regarding Kosovo I'm surprised that more people didn't vote for 'patriotic' parties. Certainly Kostunica thought that he could go to the country on the issue and win. As you know he failed.

I can see that accusations of irrelevant(cy) and its variants, plus paradigm, is a favourite of yours. Actually I don't subscribe to any paradigm. If you haven't been able to sense that by now, then I suspect you are too blinded by your own. If we agreed completely I suppose that I wouldn't have these paradigm problems that you speak of so often. Strange really because I suspect we share some core beliefs.

On Kosovo which block isn't lying about the issue? Which block can offer a solution for Kosovo? Which block is offering false promises to poor, ordinary people who have been evicted from their homes, at truth rallies etc? I'd say that both blocks have been / dishonest. You appear to believe that one side has been honest and the other dishonest. That just doesn't stand up.

EU entry, yes there is a block within the EU that supports former Yug coming in together. There is another block that does not support this. I don't know where your assumption comes from to suggest that the former will win the argument. Nor am I certain that the former block will be able to persuade those in the queue and their EU opponents to wait until the slowest straggler decides to waltz in from the car park. Again too many invariables in your argument.

Well good for you that you support Kosovo independence. I am against it, or rather I resignedly support the division of Kosovo. My message to you is that it is fine to have your opinion but we differ. I do not want to stone you in public, call you names, say you want to sell Kosovo etc. But you are arguing the toss with me, not with those that might want to lynch you.

Yes the SAA is irrelevant in of itself in the bigger picture, completely. But in the Serbian context it symbolises the direction the country is taking. Believe it or not I am not a euro-enthusiast.

Hello bganon,

G17 support:
Given the non-existance of reliable data as to the breakdown of the ZeS voting patterns, it is impossible to make a meaningful estimate leading to a meaningful discussion. I saw, and still see, no profit in discussions based upon numbers plucked from thin air.

SPO results:
I'm disappointed that you view official RIK results as "generous". Do you dispute their data?

As regards this year's polling, who knows? But to write them off in order to fit your DS/G17 paradigm is naive. SRS and LDP achieved almost the same results as last year, the DSS lost 200,000 and ZeS gained 260,000ish (no calculation made for LSV share) over previous individual scores. What evidence do you have that apparent disaffected DSS/NS supporters turned to ZeS because of DS or G17 rather than SPO? Maybe we could find something in the local results , but I have neither the time nor the inclination to follow that up. Feel free to run that analysis yourself and present me with your findings if it suits your argument.

DS coming second:
In the absence of any reliable and meaningful data on actual votes achieved by DS, all we have is the representation that they will have in parliament. Looks like 65ish to DS and 78 to SRS. Wen i woz brung up, 78 woz bigest than 65. Still no backtrack from me. Although I have conceeded that it is indeed possible that they could have polled greater than the SRS, but it must have been at the expense of its ZeS allies. We simply cannot tell.

Patriotic support:
The 'wholly patriotic' parties secured 48% of the vote. The 'apparent patriotic' party secured 38%. Combined: 86%. How great does the figure have to be?

Kostunica:
8 weeks ago, he could have legally put together a coalition of the DSS/NS and SRS from the then existing representation (81+47) without needing to negotiate with SPS. He chose not to. Why? I cannot read his mind, but I doubt he believed he could 'win' the election. I suspect he was playing his normally pedantic self and judging that it was 'right' to give the people the chance to vote before re-creating a government by stealth.

Core beliefs:
I have no doubt that we do share a majority of beliefs. The stumbling block at this moment is the veracity of DS electioneering, the relevence of 'guessed' polling returns, and the relevence of certain acts regarding entry to the EU.

Kosovo:
If anybody says that they 'will' or 'can' save Kosovo, then they are lieing or deluded as to the reality of the situation. If anybody says that they 'will do everything possible' to save Kosovo, then it is not a lie, just an overgenerous sense of their own significance. If anybody says that they 'will fight for Kosovo from within the EU', then they are blatantly lieing or self-deluded as to the realities of international relations.

EU:
Indeed the EU is far from being an homogenous organisation. However, the corporate view in Brussels is that all the candidates have to enter together, or we will end up with the Greece/Macedonia scenario with one member vetoing new entrants for (childish) historical and other dubious reasons.

Kosovo 2:
I support the creation of an independent state which may take the name 'Kosovo/a'. I do not support the method in which it is currently being enforced, nor the arbitrary division of territory. See, we have even more in common than you thought!

The European Soviet Union:
I think the title leads you to understanding that we appear to have even more in common.

SAA 'meaning':
No. It has taken on this meaning due to one party in particular seeing it as their last grasp chance for 'victory'. The symbolism is entirely illusionary. An illusion created by a political party for selfish political reasons.

And with that last sentence, I trust that you maybe better understand why I have taken the time to debate this with you. You are still presenting statements and opinions supporting the 'vision' of one section of the political elite. Promulgating that 'vision' as being right, just, real and desireable. I call it your 'paradigm'. Visions that I am trying to demonstrate as being at best, window dressing; at worst, deliberate lies.

Willie I like it when you go all scientific on me. And I'm sure you are not trying to imply that your opinions are based on facts only and that somebody who doesn't agree is stuck in some paradigm.

Perhaps this isn't the first time you have banded the word about to demean a position you oppose?

I'm afraid whatever you call it, it is time wasted that should be spent upon real issues.

Why would I dispute the RIK figure? I stated that an SPO figure of 3.5 percent seems a little high to me, quite obviously for these elections (as if you didn't know what I was talking about).

Neither have I the inclination to study the statistics, but tell me Willie in this world of facts of yours, are there any opinions, or must all opinions be abandoned in the search for evidence? Apart from when of course one moves the goalposts and talks about the amount of mandates received in parliament as if that accounted for the amount of votes for G17, or if one tries to combine the SRS/DSS total as if it were a voting block, or if one believes that the amount of lies that come from Kurir are equal to the amount of lies coming from Tadic - then that does not merit scientific investigation / in depth study? Or an entire campaign based on lies?

Truly I find the emphasis on hard evidence and then the dropping of this insistence when it suits, completely absurd.

Perhaps we could drop this silliness and restore normal service. We cannot prove anything totally and you know it. So I ask you one last time for your opinion of how much support G17 accounted for at this election.

I doubt very much that any politician goes to the polls deliberately believing that he will lose support. Kostunica was advised that Kosovo could be a vote winner, as it was used in the past. That is why Kostunica lurched to the right during the campaign and only attacked Tadic. His aim was clearly to attract SRS supporters.

Your patriotic point I fail to understand. If you know post war Serbian history you will understand the role that Kosovo has played in elections past, since 1990 yes but before then as well. It is surprising that more people weren't fooled by the radical rhetoric.

The stumbling block for me is the focus on one party only. You are being extremely selective in putting DS under the microscope - your paradigm if you please. Thats fine but to ignore naming and shaming other parties is a little disingenuous.

The SAA was not just symbolic for DS in the way you specified but (as usual) you negated its significance to other parties. DSS in particular ran their campaign on not signing (rejecting) the SAA. They gambled that this would win them votes in the same way that DS did. The difference is of course that DSS lost.
Please check out the transcript of this evenings Utisak Nedelje if you didn't catch it. Samardzic said that DSS opposition to SAA should be seen in the light of elections. He also kept saying that he didn't know if DSS would reject the SAA or not at a vote - when they went to the country on a promise not to sign SAA. But he changed his mind at the end when pushed by Beckovic

The SAA was of course less significant in some way for SRS (their position was consistent) and I think their result somehow bears this out.

Perhaps we should move onto the next subject as I'm not sure we are making much progress.

Hello bganon,

Paradigm:
I always used to use the word 'opinion', but then got bored of it and started to use the word 'construct' (noun not verb). Then I got bored of that and so now use 'paradigm'. I'm sorry you take offence to it.

Election result estimates:
If you wish to guess a figure, I have no complaint. Nevertheless, I do not feel comfortable guessing a figure as believe it would be meaningless. I see little point in discussing whether these guesses are accurate or not given the lack of solid data. It's just those sort of discussion that create pointless arguments as neither side has any foundation on which to base their analysis.

Guess my thoughts:
Please refrain from assuming what I am thinking or not thinking. On both occasions, you have been quite wrong.

Lies:
I'm less interested in the "amount" of lies as to the 'impact' of those lies. That's why I consider that the President's lies are as severe (if not significantly greater) than Kurir.

G17 support:
Final answer.... I have no idea.

The straw poll I have conducted amongst friends in the past week suggests that there is a fair few who chose ZeS simply because it is a coalition. None of the parties would have received their support had the parties stood individually. How do you factor that into your calculations?

Patriotic rhetoric:
You are making an argument that support for 'patriotic' policies is waning. To a point, I concur. However, ZeS had to play the 'patriotic' card just as much as SRS/DSS etc. The only party campaining on a 'non-patriotic' platform secured 5%. What support would ZeS have achieved if they had stood on a 'non-patriotic' platform?

SAA symbolism:
I disagree. ZeS used the SAA as 'proof' of their ability to move Serbia into the EU. It was their symbol of the good times they promised. Uncover the rhetoric, and nothing has changed in the EU's stance on Serbia, they just decided to give a helping hand to ZeS by producing a worthless document. Worthless until the conditions are met - the very same conditions in place before the SAA was signed.

What the DSS did, was attack the veracity of the ZeS claims. I think the DSS played a very poor hand from a strong position - and thus they reap the results! Had they played the ball and not the man, they would have fared somewhat better. Kostunica clearly doesn not have a Carl Rove as his advisor. :)

Utisak nedelje:
I will try and track it down. I don't watch TV as a rule.

You last point:
I tend to agree. Do not choose football or Eurovision as the next subject as I have not the slightest interest in either. :)

This is great. I am living it.
Seeing Radicals make a new Serbian Government that will be the greatest thing for Kosova. "Congratulation" Serbia, you got what you wished for, Radicals for your government.

I guess the bridge over the Ada won't be built after all then...

Still perhaps it won't matter, if we all put on badges it will surely solve all of our problems!

This is an excellent news, which also means that DSS-NS-SPS-SRS alliance is almost a fact.
Now to form the government of Serbia, independent of foreign stooges.

Excellent news! Vucic is a very energetic and bright young man, and I am sure he will make an excellent mayor for Belgrade.
I am very happy to see that the SRS-DSS-SPS are co-operating, despite the propoganda you hear from the DS and Solana's boys.
Cheers!

Congragulations to the Mayor!

bganon,

I see you're not a fan of the SRS then?

Regarding our other exchange on another thread, my source in the DS is somewhat concerned about the long term viability of his party when it is a well known secret that certain senior individuals in the party have already promised the international community their acquiescence in seeing Pristina fully independent.

As to G17, they are, like the DSS, bordering on becoming a spent force unless they 'modernise'. I suspect they are both quite incapable of the feat and will both just resort to opportunistically riding the coat-tails of whichever mainstream party offers the best deal.

willie sorry my friend but I don't believe you - unless that you can name senior individuals involved that is.

And by the sounds of it your analysis of G17 is pretty out of tune as well.

Nice try at leading me a merry dance though :)

That's good !!

Wake up my loved country!
WAKE UP SERBIA!!

Hold the speculation and wait till the annoucement tomorrow.

That said if the new Government coalition is declared tomorrow already then that is an excellent and strong start for Serbian governance. Clearly much detail will still need to be ironed out and it is important that everyone is clear on the difficult and hard task ahead. With the likes of some in the west who will create hurdles and challenges Serbia will face a task ahead but nothing is insurmountable and the US and many in the west have economic difficulties to face themselve to create too many new ones for Serbia. Not only that but lets hope the US has a change in the right direction when they hold their Presidential elections - the world is holding its breath for that!

Ultimately the sooner the national government is formed the sooner it can get on with governing ALL of Serbia by standing (Устани) proud, supporting (Подржи) economic development for all and going forward (Напред) !!!

bganon,

So, you feel it an 'honest' an 'equal' discussion where you expect me and others to accept your gossip from anonymous sources as factual on the excuse that, "I would reveal it [the source] but it could get B92 into trouble."

On the otherhand, you are unwilling to consider anybody else's gossip from anonymous sources, "unless ... you can name senior individuals involved that is."

Well the answer is bganon, that I 'can' name senior individuals, but 'choose' not to for their sake not that of a media outlet.

I have no brief from any political party here in Serbia or elsewhere. I am not particularly interested in domestic politics per se. Nevertheless, I find it hugely entertaining reading the words of public gossip mongers such as yourself who think you can influence opinion with your humorous anecdotes.

And at the same time, close your eyes and refuse to contemplate other gossip which doesn't fit your personal paradigm.

And as regards to the factual reliability of Kurir, yes, it is often found wanting. However, no less so than the President himself who has built an entire election campaign upon lies!

Willie whether other people believe me or not is not something I'm concerned with.

People can make their own minds up. If somebody holds a consistent view and appears to have some knowledge and gets a few things right then I will have time for them, no matter which party they support.

If on the other hand they are not interested in facts, constantly harp on what they wish to be true - rather than the reality, place a heavy emphasis upon avenging this or that, then again, no matter which option they support, I won't have much time for them.

You revealed that your agenda is not to engage in discussion but to prove a point. By concocting a story about DS (ostensibly to get one up on DS that you hate, but to also prove the point to me that it is possible to invent stories) you've shown that you arent worth the tapping on my keyboard.

Hello bganon,

It's a shame you do not practise what you preach.

Belgrade is alive with political rumors and gossip of all shapes, sizes and colors.

You may bring what you like to B92 and allow the reader to form their own opinion. You can chose to dismiss outright rumors and gossip brought by others, and you can do so at your own peril.

I cannot think of a single aquaintance in a position of influence in the SRS. Probably because we share so little in common. On the otherhand, I have a handful of personal friends and numerous aquaintences at most levels of the DS and G17 parties. Nevertheless, I am still able to avoid being blinded by the public rhetoric.

On Sunday evening, the President claimed victory for his party and proclaimed that nobody should form a government against the wishes of the people. Hmmmm! Somewhat premature methinks on a number of levels.

The DS remains only the second largest party in Serbia and the 'EU leaning bloc' (ZeS-LDP) can muster no more than 44-45% of the popular vote. Hardly victory, and certainly no mandate to dictate who should or should not form the next government.

The DS probably offers Serbia the best future. That is why I, and others, fear the potential whiplash to their recent campaigning methods.

Listen to the President now. Apparently, the DS shares exactly the same ideology as the Socialists. So you want to live in a socialist state do you bganon? Or do you consider this is another of the President's politically expedient lies?

Is Dacic the mystery non-DS candidate for PM that the President hinted at a couple of weeks back? Or was it the former (twice) deputy-PM Covic?

Willie with all due respect you quoted me a report in Kurir, then equated the president with Kurir which not only contradictory but patently untrue.

Tadic may lie upon occasion, but he is nowhere near the level of Kurir. If you don't know this you truly don't have a clue.

And his 'entire campaign based on lies'. If you want to have a serious discussion with me this kind of rubbish needs explanation. For sure there were exaggerations but an 'entire campaign' of lies, from you who proclaim to be 'able to avoid being blinded by public rhetoric'.

You say that DS remains the second largest party in Serbia. Just a little thought must push you to consider something else. Remember you alluded a day or so ago to the fact that G17 would struggle to reach the census and needs to hang onto coat-tails etc? If you are correct well, lets be generous and say they have 6 percent support. Where does that leave DS exactly? The most supported party in Serbia by about 3 points. Even if we G17 could get 8 percent it would still leave DS as the largest party in Serbia. But I'm not sure what your point is anyway. What irks me is your lack of thought on this.

Yeah what Tadic said was premature and silly, probably inspired through the buzz of coming first, wow, you know, how important is that exactly in the scheme of things?

Yes I do want to live in a centre left, that is a democratic socialist state. One that mitigates the excesses of capitalism and helps the less well off. Having said that I occasionally agree with centre right philosophy. What kind of state do you want to live in? A state where workers don't have rights or are not paid pensions on time? I am genuine on this and at this stage don't have reason to doubt Tadic on this subject either. Read the DS manifesto.

Just wondering if you say that DS offers the best future then why the fixation on criticising that party. Are you trying to balance things up on this site?

I think you should also tell your friends in G17 and DS what you said here. I'd be interested to see whether they found some of your comments more constructive than I did.

Hello bganon,

Kurir carried interviews and direct quotations from Ilic and Markovic. Both were posed questions framed precisely to explore the rumors that you promulgate - it was not just some Kurir commentary.

Ignoring direct quotations simply because you distrust Kurir and don't both to read it is, in my opinion, rather naive. Dismissing specific content when you haven't bothered to read it is, well????

I believe the DSS and G17 are heading for the fringes of parliamentary representation rather than mainstream organisation. This puts them into the same category as LDP and SPS: 5-7% This does not mean whitewash as experienced by SPO last year.

In 2003, G17 polled 438K; last year 275K; this year unknown. If the public were give a choice between DS and G17, who would they have chosen?

As you point out, either DS has grown from 23% to 30% and G17 has shrunk - or G17 has grown and DS is significantly behind SRS. It cannot be both.

How many seats will DS have in parliament? How many will SRS have? As regards which had the highest share of the popular vote, it is impossible to tell.

The DS campaign was characterised by two main themes: we will get you into EU sooner than the others; but we also won't give up Kosovo without a fight. I think the line went something like, 'better to fight for Kosovo from with EU than from the outside'.

So, given that the EU has, at the policy level, decided to recognise Kosovo as independent and encourage it to join the organisation as an equal to Serbia, it is fundamentally impossible to get into the EU unless Serbia has given up ALL claim to the territory of Kosovo. You cannot have EU and Kosovo unless the EU decides to do a u-turn on its current strategic vision.

Second, it has been made abundantly clear that, irrespective of the Kosovo issue, Serbia will not be closing on EU membership until AFTER full cooperation with ICTY has been established. Does Tadic have it in his power, and the intention, to arrest General Mladic and extradite him to the Hague? If not, then - unless the EU does yet another major u-turn on ICTY - the DS does not offer any quicker route to EU than the DSS.

The two main campaign points used by the DS were founded upon outright untruths - or, at the very least, an ignorance of the mutual incompatability of their policies. I do not believe that the DS leadership is stupid. The rest was just window dressing - irrespective of its veracity.

Serbian politics is in a real mess. Choosing the DS as the 'best' is no more than trying to pick the 'lesser evil' of those on offer. By doing so, I do not feel in any way obliged to simply ignore their failings and refrain from criticism. I'd like Serbs to realise that all they have on offer is mutton, even though some is dressed very beautifully - and marketed as - as prime cuts of lamb.

I have expressed my criticism directly to those anonyomous figures of whom I speak. The reception was varied. :)

On an economic and social policy level, SRS is more 'socially' attuned than the DS. In that sense, their policies would better fit your leanings. This suggest that your preference for DS/G17 over SRS is not based on their domestic policy.

Experience over the past 50 years, and particularly the past 20, have indicated (caring) capitalism provides far greater growth and prosperity to the majority than any (populist) socialist paradigm. Admittedly, it has yet to solve the problem of how to deal satisfactorarily with how to deal with the small minority who are most needy and those of the welfare class - those who could work, but choose not to because welfare handouts are more lucrative.

Tadic may well have been grandstanding on Sunday night. Nevertheless, it demonstrats his political weaknesses and exposes him to political attack from with and from without. I would not like to get B92 into trouble by naming names, but there is at least one very real-life brutus plotting his downfall within the DS. Tadic needs an SPS rabbit to appear from the hat very quickly.

We have never met bganon, so you have no idea who I am - unless you have asked friends in B92 to trace my IP. It is clear from your words, that you have decided to interpret my words in a way that does not accord to my thinking. This has lead you into a false perception of what my words represent and thus the credibility of some of my comments. Not fitting your paradigm doesn't make them irrelevent.

Willie I didn't interpret your words I merely reminded you of what you previously wrote. Now that all of a sudden you have become serious and reasonable don't blame me for forming the wrong impression of you.
I genuinely invite you to briefly re-read what you wrote and see for yourself.

I'm also a little uncertain as to whether you still believe that Tadic is as factually reliable as Kurir. Do you take that back? As I believe I've shown its not that Tadic is so great, its that Kurir is notorious. And I don't avoid reading it and just call it notorious through snobbishness either, I read it.

We generally agree about the fate of G17 and DSS but I'd add that G17 are in a way victim of DS recent success but don't forget G17's political fortunes were borne from DS misfortunes the Bodrums, basically a protest vote so its hardly surprising. Kostunica has just been inept, suffers from a lack of vision and is simply unwilling to make tough decisions.

So - we will get you into the EU sooner than the others. That DS claim was true, further a vote for DS was a mandate to locate / arrest Ratko Mladic. If voters don't know by now that he is an obstruction to EU progress they never will. Thus if they vote for EU they vote to resolve Mladic. Of course with the current situation it will prove difficult dealing with SPS on this but if a government is formed I believe SPS will bite their tounges on this - for a price.

I've tried to read your comments on Kosovo / EU a number of times but still don't understand them. There simply is no condition meaning that Serbia must recognise Kosovo in order to enter the EU. There will be problems down the line perhaps - although Kosovo will be years behind Serbia in EU integration but Serbia cannot be forced.

You are half right with SRS and their social aspect but their concern (as is DSS') is not based on a deeply held belief that society should be fair, it is based upon placating what they see as their constituency of voters. And it is precisely SRS that is the most populist party in Serbia. What is the significance of relating populism to socialism? I am not referring to preferring socialism of the home grown variety. I'm talking of democratic socialism of the type seen in Sweden for example or if we have to go back in history the Clement Atlee type. The populist parties in Serbia today are not truly democratically socialist in the slightest SRS, DSS and PSS. They are manipulative and cynical and have mercilessly abused the Kosovo issue for example. A truly democratic socialist party would never adopt such a position. As for SRS economic policies I truly believe they don't have any. They have implied as much by handing over these portfolio's to DSS, with the exception of Minister of Finance. That would be fun.

Well Brutus would be a nice description of a key member of DS with a grizzly voice and a beard, but he hasn't got the muscle to topple Tadic. No, I don't think there is a chance in hell of that happening after DS performance in the last 2 elections and were DS to sit in opposition you must know that their support could only rise...

Hello bganon,

(mis)interpretations:
You misinterpreted "spent force" and "riding the coat tails" as the inability to attain 5% of the popular vote. You misinterpreted my reference to Kurir as simply their commentary. I criticise DS and Tadic, you misinterpret this as my support for the SRS. I could go on, but I hope you now understand the point.

Tadic v Kurir:
I would trust neither as far as I could throw them. To try and establish which is the least untrustworthy is not possible without a very lengthy analysis.

DS v G17:
Indeed, they are for the same vote. For me, G17 lost it's 'inclusive' appeal after Dinkic re-enacted the Night of the Long Knives.

EU entry:
I do not accept that DS will get Serbia into EU 'quicker and less painfully' than any other party. All the important variables are beyond DS's control. The only real weopan they have in their armory that DSS/SRS do not possess is the twin notions of capitulation and subservience.

EU v Kosovo:
There is no written condition that Serbia must first recognise an independent Kosovo before entry to the EU. It is a fact of life that no candidate will be admitted if they make claims over territory of a neighbor - or worse still another candidate. Macedonia is going nowhere fast just because Greece doesn't like the name and infers this is an implicit claim on their territory! Nevertheless, there are reams of documents specifying what is expected of candidate countries in regards to regional cooperation. Claiming another sovereign state as an illegal entity is not really what the EU is about.

Social policy:
We may have to agree to disagree on this point, but in my opinion 90% of social policy is based upon political parties propping up their core voter support - irrespective of whether it is SRS, DS or even New Labour in the UK. To get into the EU, Serbia is going to have to massively REDUCE its social spending in order to meet financing and budgetry harmonisation. One of the reasons why a 'socialist' DS is not going to close on the EU as quick as they will have you believe.

Brutus:
The individual of whom I speak is sharpening his cutlery as we speak. He is clean-shaven. And this one 'thinks' he has the power to topple. My analysis is he doesn't, but has enough muscle to cause a real mess and an implosion. Not forming a government after the 'promises' made, is a likely trigger point for action. There again, maybe it was all just grandstanding and polite mutterings of agreement that I was party to.

Willie a way to stop misinterpretations from others is to use clear language, which doesn't come easy for those that like to remain ambiguous and claim afterward that they meant something else.

It would have been easy for you to solve the question in your last post but I'll have to ask you now. How much of the grand total for the DS coalition was for G17?

I don't believe you are unable to distinguish between degrees of trust such as a comparison between Tadic and Kurir. We make these types of decisions about greater and lesser evils every day. For example today in Kurir we had a bit of child pornography. Is that Tadic's level, really? Is admitting an exaggeration a problem for you?

I do believe that DS will get Serbia into the EU more quickly, but less painfully is your addendum. It will be painful, but life is.

Radical language again (not SRS but radical none the less) 'capitulation and subservience'. For a while you can sound quite reasonable but in the end... Let me give you my perspective - obstructionism, overly proud and inability to create a constructive solution for Kosovo or the EU issue. I am of course referring to Kostunica. And perhaps it isn't so much a case of DS doing it faster, perhaps its a case of Kostunica doing it slower, but it amounts to the same thing. I do, by the way, think that all of Kosovo could be lost if 'negotiations' (which have not finished in my humble) are undertaken by Kostunica / SRS. Do you truly believe that Kostunica / SRS can save Kosovo, make the situation better for Serbs?

Your Greek example on the EU issue doesn't stand up by the way for reasons we know full well - Greece is a member of the EU, Kosovo is not.

Hello bganon,

G17 popular support within ZeS:
You should know that that answer is impossible to determine accurately unless you have a lie detector attached to each and every one of those who circled 1 when you ask the question: 'who did you vote for?' Knowingly asking questions that are manifestly impossible to determine is dishonest debate - or deliberate spoiling by one schooled in 'spin'.

Admitting exaggerations:
No problem for me. On reflection, the 90% statement was a tad bold.

Pornography:
Does the President have a reason to discuss pornography publically? I understand that he has a reputation for a wandering eye.... :) What has a Kurir article about said subject got to do with having 'trust' in those that are elected to represent oneself? Kurir can invent stories as much as it likes and it will have little bearing on Serbia's future. Just a little white lie from the President can have unimaginable consequences.

I suggest that your accusation about not being "..able to distinguish between degrees of trust" may well be better suited to yourself.

Radical language:
I've never been called a 'radical' before. I shall bask in the 'glory' of a first. Can I wear a badge too? :)

I repeat, the main factors determining Serbia's entry to the EU are beyond DS's control (any party for that matter). The only 'aces' that the DS holds is their willingness to be far more 'amenable' to EU/US demands. Is that a little less radical for you?

If you doubt the validity of my words on this matter, then I encourage you to demonstrate what exactly the DS will be doing to advance EU membership.

Remember, the the recently signed SAA is worthless until: first, full cooperation with the ICTY is established (ie Mladic) by the EU Council and second, each individual member state ratifies the document in their national parliaments. Does the President have the intent AND capacity to comply with this?

This is just the first, the very first, step required along a very tortuous path to acceptance.

DSS/SRS saving Kosovo:
Kosovo was lost in 1998-9 by Milosevic - my opinion! Nevertheless, that doesn't excuse in any way the process implemented by the international community.

Moreover, given that my opinion is irrelevant, the Serbian electorate has chosen to vote as follows:-
Turn our back on Kosovo: 5%
Do everything possible to keep Kosovo: 40-48%
Fight for Kosovo within EU (allegedly): 38%

Can DSS/SRS save it? Probably not. However, there seems a pretty strong indicator that fighting for Kosovo is still a significant aspect of domestic politics.

The DS keeps putting out communiques (appearing here on B92 and elsewhere) that they do not consider any government other than one lead by themselves as morally legitimate (my paraphrasing) - they concede it's perfectly legal - because they were victorious. Head in sand denial from a party who had deluded itself into victory only to see itself defeated. ZeS=38%:DSS/NS-SRS=41% Thankfully their logic did not apply for the past XX years otherwise Nikolic would have been PM for the entire period!

Willie in your final slightly triumphalistic statement I see that you added together the SRS and DSS total, as if they stood together. That total neither describes the election results, nor the final electoral deal reached by the parties. Tadic may have got ahead of himself, but you are doing something similar here.

Its a pity you show full ability to give your estimations on a whole host of subjects including figures on those that would turn their backs on kosovo, but call for lie detector tests to find out how many people voted for G17. Its a dishonest defence. You do have an estimate on the G17 figure, but you won't say it because if you exaggerate it to make your argument true (that SRS was the most voted for party) it will appear silly. The alternative is climbing down on your earlier statement. By the way, I think you will find climbing down, or admitting mistakes is not a problem for me.

Putting Tadic and Kurir on the same level of truth-telling or 90 percent it just absurd. Such outlandish statements do you no credit.

On Kosovo, there is a crucial difference between fighting for something and being seen to fight for something. More importantly than either fighting for something or impressing the electorate with grandiose statements, is the final result. Unless a coherent plan is made for a solution rather than the yelling of slogans, wearing of badges, outpourings of emotion, there is no chance to salvage anything in Kosovo. Its a clear as crystal that this DSS/SRS approach on Kosovo will fail, above all because it is not aimed at resolving Kosovo, rather it is aimed at impressing the Serb(ian) people. They key question SRS/DSS are facing is whether the Serbian people will be impressed by a supposed almighty battle and loss of Kosovo rather than a true compromise, which will be interpreted by the patriotic lobby as a defeat. They are afraid of what this would do to their constituency. Thus Kosovo is bound to be lost with SRS/DSS.

I'd say that results of the election have shown that Kosovo is not the all important issue it used to be, that considering the crisis its a surprise that more didn't vote for the patriotic parties.

Please read more carefully I have already spoken of the mandate for EU SAA and thus to resolve Hague co-operation. Provided SPS don't make problems I am confident that one way or another it (Mladic) will be resolved by a DS led government. I am equally confident that SRS/DSS would not resolve this issue. And no I don't think that Belgium and Holland will obstruct once the Hague issues a satisfactory report. So provided SPS doesn't obstruct yes he does is my answer to your question. And if we do get a ds led government you can hold me to this. If I'm wrong I will state it openly and condemn Tadic for not delivering. So much for SAA.

As for EU entry you are right but usually it gets you to your destination quicker if you stand in the queue rather than loiter around in the car park, promising to stand in the queue one day (and a part of you has no intention of standing in the queue, never mind getting on the train).

Yes in a way Kosovo was lost by Milosevic in 98-99 but it was probably lost before then. Still, you do realise don't you that it is sacrilege to talk like this? Because if you say this its easy to be accused by the populists that you support Kosovo independence, or those that claim that you won't fight hard enough for Kosovo.

Now theres another contradiction!



I'd say that that your altered description was far less loaded with emotional/populistic language yes. Far more clear what you mean as well. But you are wrong that the US demands have anything to do with the signing of the SAA. And the EU 'demands' as you call them, are in fact not demands, they are conditions to sign SAA. A demand suggests that action, military or otherwise will be taken if the 'demand' is not fulfilled.

Hello bganon,

Triumphalism:
A DSS/NS-SRS pact is not a done deal. Accepted. But they are being now being touted as one by just about everybody when it comes to calculating likely outcomes.

G17 popular support:
Now you read minds do you? Well, if you do, your literacy is poor. I do not know how many votes G17 picked up at this election.

I have no idea how you can state that I have an estimate of the G17 vote. Such a figure simply does not exist.

Unless you can demonstrate a reliable way of calculating precisely how the ZeS vote is divided, all I can work on is the following analysis:

January 2007: DS 23.1%; G17 6.9%; SPO 3.4%; LSV ??; SDP ?? - Total 33.4% (excl. LSV)
May 2008 (estimated): ZeS 38.4%; SRS 29.4%

For DS to have received a greater share of the vote than SRS, it requires an increase from 23.1% to 29.5% ie 6.4%. Yet the ZeS result is just 5% greater than last January's combined total (ignoring LSV). So, if DS is now more popular than SRS (ie gained that 6.4%) it has grown at the expense of G17 and/or SPO.

The numbers are really not that hard to understand.

90%:
My 90% 'admission' refered to my comment that "90% of socialist policy...". Look back to confirm. That, I now consider, was a tad exaggerated. I have not changed my view on Tadic/Kurir. I do not consider them outlandish in any respect. They just don't fit your paradigm.

Kosovo:
The fate of Kosovo is beyond Serbia's hands - albeit not fully decided. Whether we speak of DSS, SRS, DS or LDP. Until people here realise that fact - yourself included - there will be forever a debate about who could/would have done better!

So, in that respect, fighting or giving the illusion of fighting is indeed exactly the same - IRRELEVANT! With one exception, one is not lieing about their actions and intentions.

Patriotic support:
'Patriotic support' is greater than 'non-patriotic support' in Serbia, and you try to dismiss it as an irrelevancy. ??

EU entry timing:
The big plan is for HR, CG, BiH, SR, MK and Kosovo all to join at the same time. Whether DS (in the queue) or SRS (in the car park) is at the helm, the entry date is going to be determined, amongst other things, by the slowest candidate.

Independence:
I do agree with independence for Kosovo. I have no fear of saying that outloud and in public. Look what I just did. However, I have a major problem with the manner in which this is being implemented (it's plain wrong) and have deep concerns (fears) for the future both regionally and worldwide.

Demands:
There are more demands upon Serbia than I have time to write if my diary was free for the next week. The SAA is actually an irrelevance in the bigger picture - however hyped the act of signing was made out here in Serbia.

Willie ok so you don't know, are not able to estimate how much support the DS led coalition received from G17 and thus whether DS has more support than SRS.

Well my opinion, and note I said opinion, is that 6.5 is about their score. It would be lower but I actually think that they impressed with the brawling, whilst the DS campaign was more aloof. I don't consider Draskovic a factor any longer by the way and that poll's estimate seems generous to me. By the way its funny isn't it that as soon as write my estimate of the G17 figure it exists. It may not be right but I'm not going to pretend that I don't have an estimate because I can't find the exact figure.

But remember that you stated that DS came second. Its interesting (not in the sense that I suspect you secretly support SRS, but in the sense that you are prone to outlandish statements and don't much like to backtrack) that you said that DS came second to SRS. If you claim not to know how much support DS had on its own then on what do you base your opinion that SRS came first? Which numbers have you 'understood'? Where does this figure 'exist'?

I did not dismiss 'patriotic' support as an irrelevancy at all. I said that it is surprising that in the current situation regarding Kosovo I'm surprised that more people didn't vote for 'patriotic' parties. Certainly Kostunica thought that he could go to the country on the issue and win. As you know he failed.

I can see that accusations of irrelevant(cy) and its variants, plus paradigm, is a favourite of yours. Actually I don't subscribe to any paradigm. If you haven't been able to sense that by now, then I suspect you are too blinded by your own. If we agreed completely I suppose that I wouldn't have these paradigm problems that you speak of so often. Strange really because I suspect we share some core beliefs.

On Kosovo which block isn't lying about the issue? Which block can offer a solution for Kosovo? Which block is offering false promises to poor, ordinary people who have been evicted from their homes, at truth rallies etc? I'd say that both blocks have been / dishonest. You appear to believe that one side has been honest and the other dishonest. That just doesn't stand up.

EU entry, yes there is a block within the EU that supports former Yug coming in together. There is another block that does not support this. I don't know where your assumption comes from to suggest that the former will win the argument. Nor am I certain that the former block will be able to persuade those in the queue and their EU opponents to wait until the slowest straggler decides to waltz in from the car park. Again too many invariables in your argument.

Well good for you that you support Kosovo independence. I am against it, or rather I resignedly support the division of Kosovo. My message to you is that it is fine to have your opinion but we differ. I do not want to stone you in public, call you names, say you want to sell Kosovo etc. But you are arguing the toss with me, not with those that might want to lynch you.

Yes the SAA is irrelevant in of itself in the bigger picture, completely. But in the Serbian context it symbolises the direction the country is taking. Believe it or not I am not a euro-enthusiast.

Hello bganon,

G17 support:
Given the non-existance of reliable data as to the breakdown of the ZeS voting patterns, it is impossible to make a meaningful estimate leading to a meaningful discussion. I saw, and still see, no profit in discussions based upon numbers plucked from thin air.

SPO results:
I'm disappointed that you view official RIK results as "generous". Do you dispute their data?

As regards this year's polling, who knows? But to write them off in order to fit your DS/G17 paradigm is naive. SRS and LDP achieved almost the same results as last year, the DSS lost 200,000 and ZeS gained 260,000ish (no calculation made for LSV share) over previous individual scores. What evidence do you have that apparent disaffected DSS/NS supporters turned to ZeS because of DS or G17 rather than SPO? Maybe we could find something in the local results , but I have neither the time nor the inclination to follow that up. Feel free to run that analysis yourself and present me with your findings if it suits your argument.

DS coming second:
In the absence of any reliable and meaningful data on actual votes achieved by DS, all we have is the representation that they will have in parliament. Looks like 65ish to DS and 78 to SRS. Wen i woz brung up, 78 woz bigest than 65. Still no backtrack from me. Although I have conceeded that it is indeed possible that they could have polled greater than the SRS, but it must have been at the expense of its ZeS allies. We simply cannot tell.

Patriotic support:
The 'wholly patriotic' parties secured 48% of the vote. The 'apparent patriotic' party secured 38%. Combined: 86%. How great does the figure have to be?

Kostunica:
8 weeks ago, he could have legally put together a coalition of the DSS/NS and SRS from the then existing representation (81+47) without needing to negotiate with SPS. He chose not to. Why? I cannot read his mind, but I doubt he believed he could 'win' the election. I suspect he was playing his normally pedantic self and judging that it was 'right' to give the people the chance to vote before re-creating a government by stealth.

Core beliefs:
I have no doubt that we do share a majority of beliefs. The stumbling block at this moment is the veracity of DS electioneering, the relevence of 'guessed' polling returns, and the relevence of certain acts regarding entry to the EU.

Kosovo:
If anybody says that they 'will' or 'can' save Kosovo, then they are lieing or deluded as to the reality of the situation. If anybody says that they 'will do everything possible' to save Kosovo, then it is not a lie, just an overgenerous sense of their own significance. If anybody says that they 'will fight for Kosovo from within the EU', then they are blatantly lieing or self-deluded as to the realities of international relations.

EU:
Indeed the EU is far from being an homogenous organisation. However, the corporate view in Brussels is that all the candidates have to enter together, or we will end up with the Greece/Macedonia scenario with one member vetoing new entrants for (childish) historical and other dubious reasons.

Kosovo 2:
I support the creation of an independent state which may take the name 'Kosovo/a'. I do not support the method in which it is currently being enforced, nor the arbitrary division of territory. See, we have even more in common than you thought!

The European Soviet Union:
I think the title leads you to understanding that we appear to have even more in common.

SAA 'meaning':
No. It has taken on this meaning due to one party in particular seeing it as their last grasp chance for 'victory'. The symbolism is entirely illusionary. An illusion created by a political party for selfish political reasons.

And with that last sentence, I trust that you maybe better understand why I have taken the time to debate this with you. You are still presenting statements and opinions supporting the 'vision' of one section of the political elite. Promulgating that 'vision' as being right, just, real and desireable. I call it your 'paradigm'. Visions that I am trying to demonstrate as being at best, window dressing; at worst, deliberate lies.

Willie I like it when you go all scientific on me. And I'm sure you are not trying to imply that your opinions are based on facts only and that somebody who doesn't agree is stuck in some paradigm.

Perhaps this isn't the first time you have banded the word about to demean a position you oppose?

I'm afraid whatever you call it, it is time wasted that should be spent upon real issues.

Why would I dispute the RIK figure? I stated that an SPO figure of 3.5 percent seems a little high to me, quite obviously for these elections (as if you didn't know what I was talking about).

Neither have I the inclination to study the statistics, but tell me Willie in this world of facts of yours, are there any opinions, or must all opinions be abandoned in the search for evidence? Apart from when of course one moves the goalposts and talks about the amount of mandates received in parliament as if that accounted for the amount of votes for G17, or if one tries to combine the SRS/DSS total as if it were a voting block, or if one believes that the amount of lies that come from Kurir are equal to the amount of lies coming from Tadic - then that does not merit scientific investigation / in depth study? Or an entire campaign based on lies?

Truly I find the emphasis on hard evidence and then the dropping of this insistence when it suits, completely absurd.

Perhaps we could drop this silliness and restore normal service. We cannot prove anything totally and you know it. So I ask you one last time for your opinion of how much support G17 accounted for at this election.

I doubt very much that any politician goes to the polls deliberately believing that he will lose support. Kostunica was advised that Kosovo could be a vote winner, as it was used in the past. That is why Kostunica lurched to the right during the campaign and only attacked Tadic. His aim was clearly to attract SRS supporters.

Your patriotic point I fail to understand. If you know post war Serbian history you will understand the role that Kosovo has played in elections past, since 1990 yes but before then as well. It is surprising that more people weren't fooled by the radical rhetoric.

The stumbling block for me is the focus on one party only. You are being extremely selective in putting DS under the microscope - your paradigm if you please. Thats fine but to ignore naming and shaming other parties is a little disingenuous.

The SAA was not just symbolic for DS in the way you specified but (as usual) you negated its significance to other parties. DSS in particular ran their campaign on not signing (rejecting) the SAA. They gambled that this would win them votes in the same way that DS did. The difference is of course that DSS lost.
Please check out the transcript of this evenings Utisak Nedelje if you didn't catch it. Samardzic said that DSS opposition to SAA should be seen in the light of elections. He also kept saying that he didn't know if DSS would reject the SAA or not at a vote - when they went to the country on a promise not to sign SAA. But he changed his mind at the end when pushed by Beckovic

The SAA was of course less significant in some way for SRS (their position was consistent) and I think their result somehow bears this out.

Perhaps we should move onto the next subject as I'm not sure we are making much progress.

Hello bganon,

Paradigm:
I always used to use the word 'opinion', but then got bored of it and started to use the word 'construct' (noun not verb). Then I got bored of that and so now use 'paradigm'. I'm sorry you take offence to it.

Election result estimates:
If you wish to guess a figure, I have no complaint. Nevertheless, I do not feel comfortable guessing a figure as believe it would be meaningless. I see little point in discussing whether these guesses are accurate or not given the lack of solid data. It's just those sort of discussion that create pointless arguments as neither side has any foundation on which to base their analysis.

Guess my thoughts:
Please refrain from assuming what I am thinking or not thinking. On both occasions, you have been quite wrong.

Lies:
I'm less interested in the "amount" of lies as to the 'impact' of those lies. That's why I consider that the President's lies are as severe (if not significantly greater) than Kurir.

G17 support:
Final answer.... I have no idea.

The straw poll I have conducted amongst friends in the past week suggests that there is a fair few who chose ZeS simply because it is a coalition. None of the parties would have received their support had the parties stood individually. How do you factor that into your calculations?

Patriotic rhetoric:
You are making an argument that support for 'patriotic' policies is waning. To a point, I concur. However, ZeS had to play the 'patriotic' card just as much as SRS/DSS etc. The only party campaining on a 'non-patriotic' platform secured 5%. What support would ZeS have achieved if they had stood on a 'non-patriotic' platform?

SAA symbolism:
I disagree. ZeS used the SAA as 'proof' of their ability to move Serbia into the EU. It was their symbol of the good times they promised. Uncover the rhetoric, and nothing has changed in the EU's stance on Serbia, they just decided to give a helping hand to ZeS by producing a worthless document. Worthless until the conditions are met - the very same conditions in place before the SAA was signed.

What the DSS did, was attack the veracity of the ZeS claims. I think the DSS played a very poor hand from a strong position - and thus they reap the results! Had they played the ball and not the man, they would have fared somewhat better. Kostunica clearly doesn not have a Carl Rove as his advisor. :)

Utisak nedelje:
I will try and track it down. I don't watch TV as a rule.

You last point:
I tend to agree. Do not choose football or Eurovision as the next subject as I have not the slightest interest in either. :)