UN SC Kosovo session on Monday

Can I just ask... What are people's thoughts about what the Serbian government's long-term strategy is for Kosovo?

Jeremic has been very successful in his round-the-world trip of convincing countries not to recognise Kosovo's independence, but it still cannot conceal the fact that most of the countries that matter (the US and most EU countries, including the most powerful) have all shown strong support for an independent Kosovo. Surely the Pristina government will never give in to Serbia with that kind of support, and surely the West is unlikely to renege on their backing. Isn't it far more likely that the trend will be for ever more countries to recognise Kosovo, even if this only happens over time? Isn't Kosovo's independence an accomplished fact that Serbia (even with her ally Russia) is far too weak to do revoke?

What are Jeremic, Kostunica, Tadic and the rest playing at? What fruits are they hoping to reap from their policies? Isn't Kosovo irrevocably lost? Isn't theirs just a hopeless cause?

I don't mean my questions to sound wry and provocative in any way. I'm genuinely interested in what Serbia is trying to get out of their strategy. Is it partition? A special relationship with Kosovo that establishes Serbia as the main influential? Or are the parties in Belgrade doing so much simply because they don't want to lose face in the eyes of the Serbian public?

Please it would be interesting to hear some speculations.

The reality on the ground is that the enclaves and North are not under Albanian control. There is a defacto partition, and the Albanians still won't be recognised as having a legal country named "Kosova". lol

most of the countries that matter (the US and most EU countries, including the most powerful) have all shown strong support for an independent Kosovo. -

Surely you must mean the reverse - Most powerful, populated, emerging, potential superpowers have reaffirmed their faith in International laws and therefore in a strong, united, territorial integrated Serbia...

Please check your facts before clicking on the keyboard...!

I spoke with a Croat some days ago and he told me that it's all a question of money..
He said to me that in his country there is speculation that if Eu gives Serbia 50 mil euros and the territory north to the Ibar river ..Kosovo is tradable...

So Vencor, do you think Serbia is just holding out until China and Russia are in a position to reverse Kosovo's independence. That could make sense but it would appear a very long-term strategy. For now you must agree that the countries that matter most in the region are the EU states and the US (as everywhere). Russia isn't as strong yet as its rhetoric would lead us to believe. It wasn't able to prevent the UDI. But yes, I agree that it is a rising power.

But still, something tells me Serbia isn't banking on a change in geopolitics. That would be far too uncertain and long-term.

Luigi, I find that proposition interesting. Partition is a reality on the ground, maybe Serbia is just trying to get as many additional benefits as possible before it accepts partition as a solution. As far as I know, partition would go down ok with the Serbian public. Even my quite nationalistic Serbian friends think partition would be tolerable if it also meant Serbia would get a ticket into the EU.

Good question Martin. The answer really depends on which government you are talking about, and subsequently on the outcome of the coming election.

If SRS/DSS obtain a majority vote I am afraid we face 10 wasted years or more. Such a government will never accept anything but a full reversal of the UDI, followed by new negations about how much/little autonomy the Kosovo-Albanian areas will be allowed to have.

They will talk, they will bring the Kosovo issue up in all imaginable international fora, but not much will come of it. At most, an offer of autonomy for the northern part of Kosovo, but such an offer will be summarily rejected, and as the rest of the Balkans moves towards further integration into EU and NATO, Serbia will be left behind. Hence the 10 wasted years, both for Serbia and for the rest of Europe.

If DS and friends gets a majority vote, I think it can be taken as a strong sign that the Serbian voters see their future inside the EU. A DS government will probably trade an independent Kosovo for extensive autonomy in the Serb dominated areas, guarantees of strong protection for the rest of the Serb enclaves, a pre-allocated number of seats for the Serb minority in the Kosovo parliament, and finally some special treatment upon joining the EU. Here I am thinking both some kind of financial package (e.g. for the farming/food industry), but also something like no delay before Serbs are allowed to take residence or work in the old EU, exemption from EU-wide minimum company taxes (so they will be better able to attract foreign investment), etc.

(me looks up from his glasball)

The reality on the ground is that the enclaves and North are not under Albanian control. There is a defacto partition, and the Albanians still won't be recognised as having a legal country named "Kosova". lol

Can I just ask... What are people's thoughts about what the Serbian government's long-term strategy is for Kosovo?

Jeremic has been very successful in his round-the-world trip of convincing countries not to recognise Kosovo's independence, but it still cannot conceal the fact that most of the countries that matter (the US and most EU countries, including the most powerful) have all shown strong support for an independent Kosovo. Surely the Pristina government will never give in to Serbia with that kind of support, and surely the West is unlikely to renege on their backing. Isn't it far more likely that the trend will be for ever more countries to recognise Kosovo, even if this only happens over time? Isn't Kosovo's independence an accomplished fact that Serbia (even with her ally Russia) is far too weak to do revoke?

What are Jeremic, Kostunica, Tadic and the rest playing at? What fruits are they hoping to reap from their policies? Isn't Kosovo irrevocably lost? Isn't theirs just a hopeless cause?

I don't mean my questions to sound wry and provocative in any way. I'm genuinely interested in what Serbia is trying to get out of their strategy. Is it partition? A special relationship with Kosovo that establishes Serbia as the main influential? Or are the parties in Belgrade doing so much simply because they don't want to lose face in the eyes of the Serbian public?

Please it would be interesting to hear some speculations.

I spoke with a Croat some days ago and he told me that it's all a question of money..
He said to me that in his country there is speculation that if Eu gives Serbia 50 mil euros and the territory north to the Ibar river ..Kosovo is tradable...

most of the countries that matter (the US and most EU countries, including the most powerful) have all shown strong support for an independent Kosovo. -

Surely you must mean the reverse - Most powerful, populated, emerging, potential superpowers have reaffirmed their faith in International laws and therefore in a strong, united, territorial integrated Serbia...

Please check your facts before clicking on the keyboard...!

So Vencor, do you think Serbia is just holding out until China and Russia are in a position to reverse Kosovo's independence. That could make sense but it would appear a very long-term strategy. For now you must agree that the countries that matter most in the region are the EU states and the US (as everywhere). Russia isn't as strong yet as its rhetoric would lead us to believe. It wasn't able to prevent the UDI. But yes, I agree that it is a rising power.

But still, something tells me Serbia isn't banking on a change in geopolitics. That would be far too uncertain and long-term.

Luigi, I find that proposition interesting. Partition is a reality on the ground, maybe Serbia is just trying to get as many additional benefits as possible before it accepts partition as a solution. As far as I know, partition would go down ok with the Serbian public. Even my quite nationalistic Serbian friends think partition would be tolerable if it also meant Serbia would get a ticket into the EU.

Good question Martin. The answer really depends on which government you are talking about, and subsequently on the outcome of the coming election.

If SRS/DSS obtain a majority vote I am afraid we face 10 wasted years or more. Such a government will never accept anything but a full reversal of the UDI, followed by new negations about how much/little autonomy the Kosovo-Albanian areas will be allowed to have.

They will talk, they will bring the Kosovo issue up in all imaginable international fora, but not much will come of it. At most, an offer of autonomy for the northern part of Kosovo, but such an offer will be summarily rejected, and as the rest of the Balkans moves towards further integration into EU and NATO, Serbia will be left behind. Hence the 10 wasted years, both for Serbia and for the rest of Europe.

If DS and friends gets a majority vote, I think it can be taken as a strong sign that the Serbian voters see their future inside the EU. A DS government will probably trade an independent Kosovo for extensive autonomy in the Serb dominated areas, guarantees of strong protection for the rest of the Serb enclaves, a pre-allocated number of seats for the Serb minority in the Kosovo parliament, and finally some special treatment upon joining the EU. Here I am thinking both some kind of financial package (e.g. for the farming/food industry), but also something like no delay before Serbs are allowed to take residence or work in the old EU, exemption from EU-wide minimum company taxes (so they will be better able to attract foreign investment), etc.

(me looks up from his glasball)