Frmr. diplomat: Serbia must acknowledge new reality

"The West, in correcting a historical mistake of 1913, proves it does eventually have a conscience,although close to a century later."

Azir, I can assure you with full confidence the West doesn't care about rectifying any perceived historical injustices of 1913. The West is supporting your independence because it is the best of a series of bad options to choose from. I can assure you there is no overwhelming sympathy on part of having some sort of conscience. We're not interested in your history. We barely write about it in our papers, and when we do, we rarely go back before 1999. No over ever speaks about the Balkan Wars. This is a tactical strategy on part of Washington to establish a pro-American regime that is dependent on American aid and allows us to set up a huge military base, and little else. Consider your independence and our national interest a coincidential series of events for the moment.

No doubt about it, there will be a new reality but not legal as far as the Serbians are concerned.

What will the Serbs of Northern Kosovo break away from? They will not recognise Kosovo's independence so they will just continue to pledge their loyalty to Serbia (as a part of Serbia) just like the other regions.

A defaco partition already exists so after the party, not much changes on the ground. The EU forces will have no control of the Serbs and have no choice but to accept parallel institutions otherwise they risk destabling the whole region.

Now Tadic is the weakest link and I have faith that Kostunica will put an end to that if necessary. Serbia should tell the EU to forget about membership but that does not mean severing economic links with friendly neighbours. Once independence is declared the damage is done and Serbia/Russia can then inflict damage as this new precedent allows.

Mike, I have to disagree with your position. I think you underestimate the Serbian people. This is not something that can ever be forgotten or forgiven and that message should continue throughout the generations until Serbia once again is whole. That is our nature.

Mike,

Your position is an admirable one and in many ways I hope you are right.

There are though a few nagging issues that just might derail your hopes. One is the fate of the 100,000 Serbs in Kosovo. Then there's the rich Orthodox heritage and finally the "attachment" of most Serbs to the province. These are the great imponderables at the moment. What do you think?

As a citizen of an EU country I wouldn't dream of advising the Serbs not to join, as Ireland's economy has benefitted greatly from membership. However, it has come at a huge cost. In gaining riches we have lost our soul.

Yes, Serbia deserves "nothing less" than a lot from the EU. But after all that has happened will it be enough? I fear it will not and if that is the case I will understand why.

Regards.

Finally we hear a Serbian tell the truth and not only what the Serbs want to hear but what needs to be said.If only Kostunica, Jeremic and others where so honest.The Serb community is in for a rude awakeing tommorrow.If only they weren't so dilusional to the fact that Kosovars and the international community are united in promoting and suppporting permanent peace by recognizing the inevitable right of self-determination for over 2 milion Kosovars who rightly deserve their freedom.The West, in correcting a historical mistake of 1913, proves it does eventually have a conscience,although close to a century later.Now this is the century of a united Albanian states in the E.U.

No one here thinks full diplomatic relations will be cut with Western countries. Tadic's main goal in running for reelection was to maintain a path towards EU integration, so barring something completely unforeseen, Serbia is not going to march itself into a corner.

However, I do think, and this is MY own opinion, is that once the dust settles over Kosovo and the EU assumes full administrative responsibilities, a renewed focus and political emphasis will shift towards Belgrade.

Serbia is mad at what is happening and with good reason. No state wants to be in this position, and Serbia is acting no different than any other state that would experience territorial fragmentation against its will. In fact, i have to commend Tadic and Jeremic for taking the moral high ground in placing this completely in legal matters and not threatening to unleash the dogs of war, as Milosevic would have done. Serbia can hold its head up high for acting maturely and with dignity during this incredibly difficult period.

Therefore, I think the EU will go into immediate damage control starting Monday with Serbia. They want Belgrade to continue its path towards EU membership and no one has mentioned anything about "punishing" Belgrade, or that Serbia is "getting what it deserved". Quite the opposite: The EU has shown a greater desire to see Serbia within its ranks than Serbs do. So I think that the same degree of attention that has been placed on Kosovo will now reshift towards Serbia. There will probably be some backroom dealing over the status of K-Serbs, and I wouldn't be surprised if Brussels acquiesces over parallel Serb institutions if it keeps Serbia from going off the deep end and from northern Kosovo from territorially breaking away.

The country is surely in for a readjustment in the coming month, but Brussels knows this and will probably extend a number of generous offerings as a concession. For what Serbia has gone through, it deserves nothing less.

Independent of Kosova marks an end of dark ages throughout balkans characterized with wars lead by the Miloshevic. But at the same time, it starts a new chapter for Serbians as well, because sooner or later whether you like or not you will need to face the reality if you want to avoid isolation from the West. Serbs younger generation will see the benefits of an independent Kosova, as this will help them to view the world from another perspective, teach them about respect of other human beings and inter-ethnic tolerance. There are critical challenges ahed for Serbs to select their destiny. Hope that the right one is selected....

Actually, Mike, you are off-base. It may be true that the pre-WW1 Balkan wars and accompanying atrocities are not on the mind of most Washington power-brokers, or even many Americans. But there remains a very strong sense in this country of fairness, of right and wrong, even if our foreign policies may not always reflect this. The US involvement in the Balkans in not all about setting up a military base in Kosovo/a, that is a plain lie. It is much about what we witnessed in the Balkans throughout the 90's, where our attempts at intervention (esp. in Bosnia) were too little, too late, and probably made things much worse than they otherwise might have been -- particularly the arms embargo which mainly stripped Bosnia of the ability to defend itself while Serb forces were blowing civilians (of all ethnicities) to kingdom come with JNA weaponry that was supposed to be defending the people instead of killing them. Oh my God, don't get me started...

It really wasn't until 1999, that Albright, Holbrooke and Clinton (possibly in that order) said: Enough is Enough! and forces were expelled from Kosovo/a. The concluding chapter, or A concluding chapter is playing out this weekend for the world to witness, and for many of us to celebrate.

To all of my Kosovar frnds and colleagues here on this site and throughout the world, I wish to offer my congratulations and my country's best wishes for the future. Perhaps one day we may all live in peace; or perhaps that is just a silly and fallacious dream. But this weekend belongs to you all!


Robert0 from San Francisco

ZK,

I think living in the UK, or wherever blinds you to the reality of the situation in Serbia today when you write:

"Now Tadic is the weakest link and I have faith that Kostunica will put an end to that if necessary."

Perhaps you don't know, but at the elections last week, more than 50% of those voting, voted for Tadic. By contrast, during the last parliamentary elections where there was a lower turnout, Vojo and his entire party could only muster 7.5%. Tadic will still be president of Serbia long after Vojo gets the boot.

Remember the government is a coalition of parties.

One wrong step by Tadic and Kostunica with his 7% can pull the plug (if necessary). Tadic is a weak link but I expect Vojo to keep him in line.

ZK UK

Of course I'd never suggest that Kosovo is something that Serbs can forget, let alone forgive. But Serbs can do two things: they can rail against the system that worked to dismember its state despite all legal obstacles, or they can accept the unforunate reality they now face and work with what they have. I'm actually glad that Kostunica told K-Serbs to stay in their land. This is a far difference from Milosevic who would have said "run for your lives, the Albanians and their Western masters will kill you." Photos of long lines of Serb refugees leaving Kosovo would benefit no one except Milosevic. Kostunica is different, by not only telling Serbs to stay, but also working to create parallel institutions, he's giving a big fat "screw you" to Washington and Pristina.

Roberto

Unforunately I have to disagree with some of your assessments of our actions in the 1990s. While it was certainly true Europe was dragging its feet while the JNA was blowing everyone to bits, and while the US felt it needed to do something to stop the killing, how we resolved the conflict was and continues to be incredibly problematic. We have a difficult time looking at all sides equally, and instead pick one race horse and back it. Croatian democracy was secured at the expulsion of 250,000 Serbs and Kosovo's "stability" can only be seen by severing it from Serbia. Were we really objective in this, we would have demanded significant rights to the Albanians after 2000 to the new Serbian government, but mandated that Serbia's territory not change. The burden would be on Belgrade to come through, but they would have cooperated. With the actual severing of territory, we gain an overwhelmingly pro-American regime in Pristina while squandering one in Belgrade. Our intentions may be good, but they are often accompanied by ulterior motives and zero-sum gains, and if one side only gains at another's expense, I really have to question my country's intentions.

Tom

The best thing that could happen to Kosovo right now, and more specifically Kosovo Serbs would be for them to form their political institutions. There is absolutely zero trust between the two camps, so anyone thinking Serbs are going to join Albanians together in a new state in the immediate future is deluding themselves. While AP provides for Serbs to be practically autonomous in Kosovo, the question remains to be seen how much control Belgrade will yield. I suspect Belgrade will have an enormous influence at first. If things calm down and the EU actually makes something out of Kosovo, we may see Serb institutions moving away from Belgrade and taking care of their own affairs, similar to RS. Everything depends however on the behavior of Pristina and the administrative duties of the EU.

Finally we hear a Serbian tell the truth and not only what the Serbs want to hear but what needs to be said.If only Kostunica, Jeremic and others where so honest.The Serb community is in for a rude awakeing tommorrow.If only they weren't so dilusional to the fact that Kosovars and the international community are united in promoting and suppporting permanent peace by recognizing the inevitable right of self-determination for over 2 milion Kosovars who rightly deserve their freedom.The West, in correcting a historical mistake of 1913, proves it does eventually have a conscience,although close to a century later.Now this is the century of a united Albanian states in the E.U.

Actually, Mike, you are off-base. It may be true that the pre-WW1 Balkan wars and accompanying atrocities are not on the mind of most Washington power-brokers, or even many Americans. But there remains a very strong sense in this country of fairness, of right and wrong, even if our foreign policies may not always reflect this. The US involvement in the Balkans in not all about setting up a military base in Kosovo/a, that is a plain lie. It is much about what we witnessed in the Balkans throughout the 90's, where our attempts at intervention (esp. in Bosnia) were too little, too late, and probably made things much worse than they otherwise might have been -- particularly the arms embargo which mainly stripped Bosnia of the ability to defend itself while Serb forces were blowing civilians (of all ethnicities) to kingdom come with JNA weaponry that was supposed to be defending the people instead of killing them. Oh my God, don't get me started...

It really wasn't until 1999, that Albright, Holbrooke and Clinton (possibly in that order) said: Enough is Enough! and forces were expelled from Kosovo/a. The concluding chapter, or A concluding chapter is playing out this weekend for the world to witness, and for many of us to celebrate.

To all of my Kosovar frnds and colleagues here on this site and throughout the world, I wish to offer my congratulations and my country's best wishes for the future. Perhaps one day we may all live in peace; or perhaps that is just a silly and fallacious dream. But this weekend belongs to you all!


Robert0 from San Francisco

Independent of Kosova marks an end of dark ages throughout balkans characterized with wars lead by the Miloshevic. But at the same time, it starts a new chapter for Serbians as well, because sooner or later whether you like or not you will need to face the reality if you want to avoid isolation from the West. Serbs younger generation will see the benefits of an independent Kosova, as this will help them to view the world from another perspective, teach them about respect of other human beings and inter-ethnic tolerance. There are critical challenges ahed for Serbs to select their destiny. Hope that the right one is selected....

No one here thinks full diplomatic relations will be cut with Western countries. Tadic's main goal in running for reelection was to maintain a path towards EU integration, so barring something completely unforeseen, Serbia is not going to march itself into a corner.

However, I do think, and this is MY own opinion, is that once the dust settles over Kosovo and the EU assumes full administrative responsibilities, a renewed focus and political emphasis will shift towards Belgrade.

Serbia is mad at what is happening and with good reason. No state wants to be in this position, and Serbia is acting no different than any other state that would experience territorial fragmentation against its will. In fact, i have to commend Tadic and Jeremic for taking the moral high ground in placing this completely in legal matters and not threatening to unleash the dogs of war, as Milosevic would have done. Serbia can hold its head up high for acting maturely and with dignity during this incredibly difficult period.

Therefore, I think the EU will go into immediate damage control starting Monday with Serbia. They want Belgrade to continue its path towards EU membership and no one has mentioned anything about "punishing" Belgrade, or that Serbia is "getting what it deserved". Quite the opposite: The EU has shown a greater desire to see Serbia within its ranks than Serbs do. So I think that the same degree of attention that has been placed on Kosovo will now reshift towards Serbia. There will probably be some backroom dealing over the status of K-Serbs, and I wouldn't be surprised if Brussels acquiesces over parallel Serb institutions if it keeps Serbia from going off the deep end and from northern Kosovo from territorially breaking away.

The country is surely in for a readjustment in the coming month, but Brussels knows this and will probably extend a number of generous offerings as a concession. For what Serbia has gone through, it deserves nothing less.

ZK,

I think living in the UK, or wherever blinds you to the reality of the situation in Serbia today when you write:

"Now Tadic is the weakest link and I have faith that Kostunica will put an end to that if necessary."

Perhaps you don't know, but at the elections last week, more than 50% of those voting, voted for Tadic. By contrast, during the last parliamentary elections where there was a lower turnout, Vojo and his entire party could only muster 7.5%. Tadic will still be president of Serbia long after Vojo gets the boot.

"The West, in correcting a historical mistake of 1913, proves it does eventually have a conscience,although close to a century later."

Azir, I can assure you with full confidence the West doesn't care about rectifying any perceived historical injustices of 1913. The West is supporting your independence because it is the best of a series of bad options to choose from. I can assure you there is no overwhelming sympathy on part of having some sort of conscience. We're not interested in your history. We barely write about it in our papers, and when we do, we rarely go back before 1999. No over ever speaks about the Balkan Wars. This is a tactical strategy on part of Washington to establish a pro-American regime that is dependent on American aid and allows us to set up a huge military base, and little else. Consider your independence and our national interest a coincidential series of events for the moment.

No doubt about it, there will be a new reality but not legal as far as the Serbians are concerned.

What will the Serbs of Northern Kosovo break away from? They will not recognise Kosovo's independence so they will just continue to pledge their loyalty to Serbia (as a part of Serbia) just like the other regions.

A defaco partition already exists so after the party, not much changes on the ground. The EU forces will have no control of the Serbs and have no choice but to accept parallel institutions otherwise they risk destabling the whole region.

Now Tadic is the weakest link and I have faith that Kostunica will put an end to that if necessary. Serbia should tell the EU to forget about membership but that does not mean severing economic links with friendly neighbours. Once independence is declared the damage is done and Serbia/Russia can then inflict damage as this new precedent allows.

Mike, I have to disagree with your position. I think you underestimate the Serbian people. This is not something that can ever be forgotten or forgiven and that message should continue throughout the generations until Serbia once again is whole. That is our nature.

Mike,

Your position is an admirable one and in many ways I hope you are right.

There are though a few nagging issues that just might derail your hopes. One is the fate of the 100,000 Serbs in Kosovo. Then there's the rich Orthodox heritage and finally the "attachment" of most Serbs to the province. These are the great imponderables at the moment. What do you think?

As a citizen of an EU country I wouldn't dream of advising the Serbs not to join, as Ireland's economy has benefitted greatly from membership. However, it has come at a huge cost. In gaining riches we have lost our soul.

Yes, Serbia deserves "nothing less" than a lot from the EU. But after all that has happened will it be enough? I fear it will not and if that is the case I will understand why.

Regards.

Remember the government is a coalition of parties.

One wrong step by Tadic and Kostunica with his 7% can pull the plug (if necessary). Tadic is a weak link but I expect Vojo to keep him in line.

ZK UK

Of course I'd never suggest that Kosovo is something that Serbs can forget, let alone forgive. But Serbs can do two things: they can rail against the system that worked to dismember its state despite all legal obstacles, or they can accept the unforunate reality they now face and work with what they have. I'm actually glad that Kostunica told K-Serbs to stay in their land. This is a far difference from Milosevic who would have said "run for your lives, the Albanians and their Western masters will kill you." Photos of long lines of Serb refugees leaving Kosovo would benefit no one except Milosevic. Kostunica is different, by not only telling Serbs to stay, but also working to create parallel institutions, he's giving a big fat "screw you" to Washington and Pristina.

Roberto

Unforunately I have to disagree with some of your assessments of our actions in the 1990s. While it was certainly true Europe was dragging its feet while the JNA was blowing everyone to bits, and while the US felt it needed to do something to stop the killing, how we resolved the conflict was and continues to be incredibly problematic. We have a difficult time looking at all sides equally, and instead pick one race horse and back it. Croatian democracy was secured at the expulsion of 250,000 Serbs and Kosovo's "stability" can only be seen by severing it from Serbia. Were we really objective in this, we would have demanded significant rights to the Albanians after 2000 to the new Serbian government, but mandated that Serbia's territory not change. The burden would be on Belgrade to come through, but they would have cooperated. With the actual severing of territory, we gain an overwhelmingly pro-American regime in Pristina while squandering one in Belgrade. Our intentions may be good, but they are often accompanied by ulterior motives and zero-sum gains, and if one side only gains at another's expense, I really have to question my country's intentions.

Tom

The best thing that could happen to Kosovo right now, and more specifically Kosovo Serbs would be for them to form their political institutions. There is absolutely zero trust between the two camps, so anyone thinking Serbs are going to join Albanians together in a new state in the immediate future is deluding themselves. While AP provides for Serbs to be practically autonomous in Kosovo, the question remains to be seen how much control Belgrade will yield. I suspect Belgrade will have an enormous influence at first. If things calm down and the EU actually makes something out of Kosovo, we may see Serb institutions moving away from Belgrade and taking care of their own affairs, similar to RS. Everything depends however on the behavior of Pristina and the administrative duties of the EU.