Strategic analysis: Serbia's options limited

While I respect Stratfor I think that they are contradicting themselves here, although perhaps there are bits of their report missing.

On one hand they say that there is little Serbia could do and then they go on to say:

"The options with less drastic consequences are however much less dramatic. They are based on efforts by the northern Kosovo Serbs to reintegrate with Serbia.

"The only thing the Albanians could do to stop this would be to instigate a conflict, though it is unlikely that NATO would wish to get involved in something like this.

"Moreover, one can expect Serbia to cut all ties with an independent Kosovo, thus forcing the province to import everything from food to electricity from different sources.

"This would turn Kosovo, which is already a “territory that does not function,” into an “economic disaster” and would force NATO and the EU in the best case to instigate a long-term humanitarian aid program, predicts the U.S. agency."

This sounds like plenty that Serbia is able to do, and which would certainly have a major impact.

They also don't mention the legal aspects and the implications of the UN's failure to recognise the province as a state. The limbo would be a longerm headache to residents and the international community.

STRAFOR's a couple of years behind the times. Belgrade has repeatedly said they would not use military means to respond to Kosovo's UDI. Furthermore, there's really no serious momentum to instigate any secession in RS. Dodik is in a great position as it stands now. RS is far more politically stable and economically viable than Federation, and as a confederation in a larger country, doesn't bear the responsibility of military security or others obligations a formal state is responsible for. RS is getting the best of both worlds and will not risk detaching itself.

As far as K-Serbs ignoring Albanian institutions in Kosovo, we can pretty much resolve ourselves to that, especially north of the Ibar. What remains now is whether the EU, "for the sake of peace and stability" will allow these parallel institutions to function. Doing so may complicate matters in Pristina (but hey, why give Thaci an easy job unilaterally doing what he wants), but it may ensure the Serbs remain in Kosovo. Keeping the peace may be more important than unifying the region, and if that means Serbs form their own government in Kosovo, so be it.

But in the end, actions taken by the West will almost invariably produce a reaction in Serbia, so I really don't have any sympathy for the EU if matters are complicated in Kosovo after a UDI. They made their bed, now sleep in it.

Any blockade by Serbia will only have a short term effect. New trades routes will be established soon with Macedonia and Albania.

I hope and I am praying that Serbia does start this blockade, while initially this might make things a bit more difficult, in long term its a great thing for Kosovo, because not only we will be politicaly independent from Serbia but also economically. At least then our money will go to are good neighbours in Albania and Macedonia, thus leading to their economic development too.

You will be doing us a favour.Please, block the borders.

What comes around goes around. If the Albanians succeed in stealing Kosovo away the they should expect the worse case situation comeing from Belgrade. If the Albanians don't get their illegal independence will they just sit their and give up? probably not they would fight allover again. What do you expect from Belgrade a congradulations letter, NOT. They will make it as hard as posible for this illegal quazi-state to function. Niksala your wish may come true. So you may want to rethink it. The only people to suffer from this "Action Plan" from Belgrade are the K-Albanians. Belgrad WILL take care of Serbs and non-Albanians in Kosovo.

We albanians choose Nato, instead off Russia and Congo! ha ha!

Mike writes:
'actions taken by the West will almost invariably produce a reaction in Serbia, so I really don't have any sympathy for the EU if matters are complicated in Kosovo after a UDI. They made their bed, now sleep in it.'

This is an interesting take on the current state of affairs. Let me spell it out for you: It is not the EU losing out here, it's Serbia. It may be difficult to get used to the fact, but Serbia is now lying in the bed made for her by its leaders. As for Kosovo, no need to worry. It will survive and flourish.

"The options with less drastic consequences are however much less dramatic. They are based on efforts by the northern Kosovo Serbs to reintegrate with Serbia.

The only thing the Albanians could do to stop this would be to instigate a conflict, though it is unlikely that NATO would wish to get involved in something like this."

I have been predicting de facto partition for ages. And that's what's about to happen soon.

Mospyt, maybe you haven't been paying attention to the rest of the Kosovo story outside what you want to hear and what you want to believe, but if we are to take Thaci's sincerity for proclaiming a UDI this weekend, you should also take Kostunica's reactions with sincerity. The minute Kosovo proclaims its independence, K-Serbs have plans to proclaim government institutions of their own.

Now this is where it gets interesting. Ivanovic has said he will not "secede" from Kosovo (more like he will not secede from the rest of Serbia), and this is in agreement with EU policy of keeping the region from being partitioned. What it boils down to is this: if separate Serbian institutions set up throughout Kosovo will keep the Serbs from leaving, seceding, or creating other forms of instability, I feel the EU will be willing to acknowledge their existence as a concession to Serbia. Furthermore, I may not like Thaci, but I think he's pragmatic enough to realize that he has about as much authority in Mitrovica and Gracanica as Kostunica has in Pristina. Therefore, "in order to keep the peace", he'll begrudgingly acknowledge Serb parallel institutions if it creates a long-lasting solution to the region.

No one loses out. Albanians get their state, the EU gets their Mission, and Serbs get their security. And in the end, Kosovo moves towards the bi-zonal confederation that should have been proposed months ago.

K-Serb detachment is as about "inevitable" and "unstoppable" as your UDI.

" And in the end, Kosovo moves towards the bi-zonal confederation that should have been proposed months ago.

K-Serb detachment is as about "inevitable" and "unstoppable" as your UDI.
(Mike, 13 February 2008 19:50) "

Mike it is interesting what you say. It is the leaders in Belgrade that did not agree with this because it had the word independence in it. When Ahtisari made his proposal probably most Albanians would have a agreed with a federation solution you say as long as it was stated that Albanian inhabited parts are completely independent from Belgrade. The Serbs parts then could have their own institutions within this federation, pretty much like Bosnia. We as Albanians are realistic when it comes to that. If we don't want to be governed by Serbs then most likely they don't wanna be governed by us, so be it lets make it happen. You can't force people to be governed by you when they don't want to. It will always lead to conflict. The average Serbs and Serb politicians don't see it this way. If they did they would have agreed to such a plan which I am pretty sure it was mentioned to them during these 9 years. The way Serb politicians see it is that agreeing to what you, Mike proposed, would mean losing the Albanian inhabited areas of Kosova/o forever. So lets not agree. Let there be a declaration of independence, and if 50 or 100 years from now there's a war we could get the Albanian inhabited areas too because there is no UN resolution. They look for another war, another conflict as their solution rather than work for a realistic solution to end the conflict. By the way neither full independence nor autonomy (proposed by Belgrade) are the real compromise.

What I would call a true compromise are:

1) Kosova/o being a Federative state.

2) Partition ( Belgrade does not want that to happen more than Prishtina)

3) Serbia turning into a federative country of 2 states, Kosova and Serbia both with Veto Powers, Both with equal representation in the institutions.

(Not a lot of people like this.)

Belgrade is not interested in institutionalizing any of these compromises hence we are where we are today, which in the long run might result more beneficiary for us Albanians than all the compromise solutions mentioned above. We just have to wait and see, and I hope it does.

Johny, I appreciate your response. If there's one thing I disagree with on part of Belgrade, it's that they want all of Kosovo, from Leposavic to Dragas. The only problem is that they're not offering the Albanains any major incentives. I would have been totally happy had Belgrade opted for a Bosnia-like model for Kosovo. It's messy, but it's both pragmatic and realistic: Albanians and Serbs manage their own affairs and are protected by their own political institutions. It's also a concession each side has to make: Serbia agrees to let Kosovo go, but Pristina agrees to let the Serbs be under their own form of self-rule.

Unfortunately, not only Belgrade, but Washington was also opposed to this, as they were against any form of partition from the start. Yet such a scenario may just result in the coming weeks and months.

We albanians choose Nato, instead off Russia and Congo! ha ha!

Any blockade by Serbia will only have a short term effect. New trades routes will be established soon with Macedonia and Albania.

I hope and I am praying that Serbia does start this blockade, while initially this might make things a bit more difficult, in long term its a great thing for Kosovo, because not only we will be politicaly independent from Serbia but also economically. At least then our money will go to are good neighbours in Albania and Macedonia, thus leading to their economic development too.

You will be doing us a favour.Please, block the borders.

Mike writes:
'actions taken by the West will almost invariably produce a reaction in Serbia, so I really don't have any sympathy for the EU if matters are complicated in Kosovo after a UDI. They made their bed, now sleep in it.'

This is an interesting take on the current state of affairs. Let me spell it out for you: It is not the EU losing out here, it's Serbia. It may be difficult to get used to the fact, but Serbia is now lying in the bed made for her by its leaders. As for Kosovo, no need to worry. It will survive and flourish.

While I respect Stratfor I think that they are contradicting themselves here, although perhaps there are bits of their report missing.

On one hand they say that there is little Serbia could do and then they go on to say:

"The options with less drastic consequences are however much less dramatic. They are based on efforts by the northern Kosovo Serbs to reintegrate with Serbia.

"The only thing the Albanians could do to stop this would be to instigate a conflict, though it is unlikely that NATO would wish to get involved in something like this.

"Moreover, one can expect Serbia to cut all ties with an independent Kosovo, thus forcing the province to import everything from food to electricity from different sources.

"This would turn Kosovo, which is already a “territory that does not function,” into an “economic disaster” and would force NATO and the EU in the best case to instigate a long-term humanitarian aid program, predicts the U.S. agency."

This sounds like plenty that Serbia is able to do, and which would certainly have a major impact.

They also don't mention the legal aspects and the implications of the UN's failure to recognise the province as a state. The limbo would be a longerm headache to residents and the international community.

STRAFOR's a couple of years behind the times. Belgrade has repeatedly said they would not use military means to respond to Kosovo's UDI. Furthermore, there's really no serious momentum to instigate any secession in RS. Dodik is in a great position as it stands now. RS is far more politically stable and economically viable than Federation, and as a confederation in a larger country, doesn't bear the responsibility of military security or others obligations a formal state is responsible for. RS is getting the best of both worlds and will not risk detaching itself.

As far as K-Serbs ignoring Albanian institutions in Kosovo, we can pretty much resolve ourselves to that, especially north of the Ibar. What remains now is whether the EU, "for the sake of peace and stability" will allow these parallel institutions to function. Doing so may complicate matters in Pristina (but hey, why give Thaci an easy job unilaterally doing what he wants), but it may ensure the Serbs remain in Kosovo. Keeping the peace may be more important than unifying the region, and if that means Serbs form their own government in Kosovo, so be it.

But in the end, actions taken by the West will almost invariably produce a reaction in Serbia, so I really don't have any sympathy for the EU if matters are complicated in Kosovo after a UDI. They made their bed, now sleep in it.

What comes around goes around. If the Albanians succeed in stealing Kosovo away the they should expect the worse case situation comeing from Belgrade. If the Albanians don't get their illegal independence will they just sit their and give up? probably not they would fight allover again. What do you expect from Belgrade a congradulations letter, NOT. They will make it as hard as posible for this illegal quazi-state to function. Niksala your wish may come true. So you may want to rethink it. The only people to suffer from this "Action Plan" from Belgrade are the K-Albanians. Belgrad WILL take care of Serbs and non-Albanians in Kosovo.

Mospyt, maybe you haven't been paying attention to the rest of the Kosovo story outside what you want to hear and what you want to believe, but if we are to take Thaci's sincerity for proclaiming a UDI this weekend, you should also take Kostunica's reactions with sincerity. The minute Kosovo proclaims its independence, K-Serbs have plans to proclaim government institutions of their own.

Now this is where it gets interesting. Ivanovic has said he will not "secede" from Kosovo (more like he will not secede from the rest of Serbia), and this is in agreement with EU policy of keeping the region from being partitioned. What it boils down to is this: if separate Serbian institutions set up throughout Kosovo will keep the Serbs from leaving, seceding, or creating other forms of instability, I feel the EU will be willing to acknowledge their existence as a concession to Serbia. Furthermore, I may not like Thaci, but I think he's pragmatic enough to realize that he has about as much authority in Mitrovica and Gracanica as Kostunica has in Pristina. Therefore, "in order to keep the peace", he'll begrudgingly acknowledge Serb parallel institutions if it creates a long-lasting solution to the region.

No one loses out. Albanians get their state, the EU gets their Mission, and Serbs get their security. And in the end, Kosovo moves towards the bi-zonal confederation that should have been proposed months ago.

K-Serb detachment is as about "inevitable" and "unstoppable" as your UDI.

"The options with less drastic consequences are however much less dramatic. They are based on efforts by the northern Kosovo Serbs to reintegrate with Serbia.

The only thing the Albanians could do to stop this would be to instigate a conflict, though it is unlikely that NATO would wish to get involved in something like this."

I have been predicting de facto partition for ages. And that's what's about to happen soon.

" And in the end, Kosovo moves towards the bi-zonal confederation that should have been proposed months ago.

K-Serb detachment is as about "inevitable" and "unstoppable" as your UDI.
(Mike, 13 February 2008 19:50) "

Mike it is interesting what you say. It is the leaders in Belgrade that did not agree with this because it had the word independence in it. When Ahtisari made his proposal probably most Albanians would have a agreed with a federation solution you say as long as it was stated that Albanian inhabited parts are completely independent from Belgrade. The Serbs parts then could have their own institutions within this federation, pretty much like Bosnia. We as Albanians are realistic when it comes to that. If we don't want to be governed by Serbs then most likely they don't wanna be governed by us, so be it lets make it happen. You can't force people to be governed by you when they don't want to. It will always lead to conflict. The average Serbs and Serb politicians don't see it this way. If they did they would have agreed to such a plan which I am pretty sure it was mentioned to them during these 9 years. The way Serb politicians see it is that agreeing to what you, Mike proposed, would mean losing the Albanian inhabited areas of Kosova/o forever. So lets not agree. Let there be a declaration of independence, and if 50 or 100 years from now there's a war we could get the Albanian inhabited areas too because there is no UN resolution. They look for another war, another conflict as their solution rather than work for a realistic solution to end the conflict. By the way neither full independence nor autonomy (proposed by Belgrade) are the real compromise.

What I would call a true compromise are:

1) Kosova/o being a Federative state.

2) Partition ( Belgrade does not want that to happen more than Prishtina)

3) Serbia turning into a federative country of 2 states, Kosova and Serbia both with Veto Powers, Both with equal representation in the institutions.

(Not a lot of people like this.)

Belgrade is not interested in institutionalizing any of these compromises hence we are where we are today, which in the long run might result more beneficiary for us Albanians than all the compromise solutions mentioned above. We just have to wait and see, and I hope it does.

Johny, I appreciate your response. If there's one thing I disagree with on part of Belgrade, it's that they want all of Kosovo, from Leposavic to Dragas. The only problem is that they're not offering the Albanains any major incentives. I would have been totally happy had Belgrade opted for a Bosnia-like model for Kosovo. It's messy, but it's both pragmatic and realistic: Albanians and Serbs manage their own affairs and are protected by their own political institutions. It's also a concession each side has to make: Serbia agrees to let Kosovo go, but Pristina agrees to let the Serbs be under their own form of self-rule.

Unfortunately, not only Belgrade, but Washington was also opposed to this, as they were against any form of partition from the start. Yet such a scenario may just result in the coming weeks and months.