CeSID expects higher turnout in run-off

"Čedomir Jovanović 3 percent"

That must be all albanians in Belgrade + all muslims in Sandzak that votes for him. No serb that I know of support him or his party.

Statistics are what someone wants them to be! The vote that counts is on the day and all should make their vote count!

One interesting point is;

"Of the 2.75 million voters that will definitely vote, the SRS candidate can expect to receive 1.15 million votes to the DS candidate’s 1.05 million."
- what if Nikolic musters all of his 1.5 million potential in the first round ? Thus the total vote would be 3.1 million and give Nikolic 48.4% in the first round - given errors for staistical analysis or last minute tactical voting this means he could potentially win outright in the first round - food for thought !

Guys,

This race will go right down (judging from those polls) to the wire and i'd say Tadic is bricking it right now. If the Radicals are ahead in the 1st round you can be sure that there will be gasps of shock horror in the Western capitals and the Serb bashing will commence.

Having been to Serbia many times and speaking to friends here is my 2 cents;

Radicals and DS will pull away from the rest in the 1st Round with the Radicals ahead.

The best of the rest;
Illic - New Serbia - 5%

Socialists backed by Pensioners & SKJ - 5%

Pastor & the Hungarians - 2%
will get support from Magyars, Croats, Slovaks, Bosniaks in Vojvodina. However some of Magyar Vojvodina vote will go to Tadic.

Jovanovic - 3% will get backing from Albanians in Presevo and Belgrade as well as Belgrade liberals like G17. Sandjak Muslims will back Tadic en masse.

First round Nikolic ahead 28 to Tadic's 23.

Second Round;
Tadic will make up ground on Nikolic be getting the Albanian, Hungarian we well as half DSS, G17, Liberals, New Serbia, minor candidates.

However what could swing it could be the Socialists if they get their voters out. If the Left mobilizes behind Nikolic, Tadic could be in big trouble if he doesnt get a sizeable chunk of the DSS behind him.

This is too close to call. You could get a good price in the bookies for a Nikolic win. Stick on a score.

Ok, I'm putting my neck on the line, Tadic to win, but only just.

"Čedomir Jovanović 3 percent"

That must be all albanians in Belgrade + all muslims in Sandzak that votes for him. No serb that I know of support him or his party.

Statistics are what someone wants them to be! The vote that counts is on the day and all should make their vote count!

One interesting point is;

"Of the 2.75 million voters that will definitely vote, the SRS candidate can expect to receive 1.15 million votes to the DS candidate’s 1.05 million."
- what if Nikolic musters all of his 1.5 million potential in the first round ? Thus the total vote would be 3.1 million and give Nikolic 48.4% in the first round - given errors for staistical analysis or last minute tactical voting this means he could potentially win outright in the first round - food for thought !

Guys,

This race will go right down (judging from those polls) to the wire and i'd say Tadic is bricking it right now. If the Radicals are ahead in the 1st round you can be sure that there will be gasps of shock horror in the Western capitals and the Serb bashing will commence.

Having been to Serbia many times and speaking to friends here is my 2 cents;

Radicals and DS will pull away from the rest in the 1st Round with the Radicals ahead.

The best of the rest;
Illic - New Serbia - 5%

Socialists backed by Pensioners & SKJ - 5%

Pastor & the Hungarians - 2%
will get support from Magyars, Croats, Slovaks, Bosniaks in Vojvodina. However some of Magyar Vojvodina vote will go to Tadic.

Jovanovic - 3% will get backing from Albanians in Presevo and Belgrade as well as Belgrade liberals like G17. Sandjak Muslims will back Tadic en masse.

First round Nikolic ahead 28 to Tadic's 23.

Second Round;
Tadic will make up ground on Nikolic be getting the Albanian, Hungarian we well as half DSS, G17, Liberals, New Serbia, minor candidates.

However what could swing it could be the Socialists if they get their voters out. If the Left mobilizes behind Nikolic, Tadic could be in big trouble if he doesnt get a sizeable chunk of the DSS behind him.

This is too close to call. You could get a good price in the bookies for a Nikolic win. Stick on a score.

Ok, I'm putting my neck on the line, Tadic to win, but only just.