Tadić: Europe within Serbia's reach

Sorry Tadic, but it is not good for Serbia to accept the European values of being their economic colony... much like Slovakia or Bulgaria is today. We should not want to solve unemployment by having people flee to western europe in search of jobs. Furthermore, we need our trade barriers because we can not compete against the Western Giants. We are not prone to accept other western values, such as homosexualism, or individualism. We are orthodox, and should align ourselves with our true ally, Russia. Hm, I wonder if Tadic supported the Bombing of Serbia in 1999... those were European Values. Breaking Kosmet away from Serbia is also considered to be European values. It's not good.

I respect Mr. Tadic's love and respect for Serbia and the Serbian people. It is clear that he wants to do what he thinks is best for Serbia.

However the European Union is not whats best for Serbia. How is it possible to join such a organization that wants to strip away our own soverignty from us. Nobody made Belguim, Spain, France strip any land away from there soverignty and that shouldn't happen to Serbia.

Therefore The EU is not best for Serbia

the European Union and the United States is not the entire world.... accelerating economic cooperation with Russia, China, India, the Arab World and plus the EU countries who will not recognize a independent Kosovo.. Spain, Greece, Cyprus, Slovakia and Romania

no shortcuts to serbia,
if serbia will join by shortcut, albania should join in the same time, in order to keep the balance.
we know that serbs,and they supporters will do anything to keep us out of EU.
Albania must join also so that even if serbs will make EU difficult for us, albania will make it easy for us.

Doni

Albania is still too poor to join the EU. It needs to have the minimal requirements as per the Copenhagen Criteria to become a candidate. Have a look at who is a candidate now: Croatia, who is about the same economically as Poland, Macedonia, who is about the same economically as Bulgaria, Turkey, who is about the same economically as Romania, but Albania still needs to speed up their development in order to join as they are behind even those countries.

Serbia on the other hand has a more developed and more stable economy than Albania and does not need the same level of reforms in order to join. Even aside from the Kosovo issue, Serbia is quite ready to become an EU candidate, as they are roughly on par with Romania, Bulgaria and Macedonia.

In general, I agree that no shortcuts should be given to any country, but if it will defuse tension then I don't see why there should be no exceptions made. Kosovo will get their independence outside of the UNSC, so there should be no double standard against Serbia.

peter

i agree with you, but everything should be based on merits, freedoms, rights,etc etc ...in few words all good things that citiziens benefit.
but not shortcuts, Because serbia takes it for granted and serbs will never appreciate it, and will use their possition to satisfy their "inat" by blocking Kosova wherever and whenever they can. Instead of using it for common good for all EU citisiens.
and this will create another problem huge in EU or maybe the end of EU over unity, now it seems far away, but it will come.
Serbia is not in EU and you have divisions imagine if serbia is in EU. and be realistic, dont think like yourself.
why albania in EU if serbia in EU? albania has shown that it has contributed a lot in the regional stability despite others.
if albania would have behaved like serbia when seeing that ethinic albanians outside its borders were being misstreated and undermined, then you can oppose.
but albania played constructive role, for the common good of all, and this made the West understand the truth.

Bruce, I don't think that Serbia's only problem is the Hague. The Hague is only symptomatic of deeper political problems with Serbia, and that is the level of nationalism that is incompatible with European values. A country where an ultra-nationalist party such as the Radical Party is the most voted party in parliament, a country that hasn't yet come to terms with its violent and agressive past and acknowledged its crimes in Bosnia, Croatia and Kosova, is not fit to become a member of EU. Serbia still maintains an agressive posture towards its neighbors, as witnessed by Kostunica's remarks towards Bosnia and that posture causes still much instability in the region. And, right now everything is up in the air with Serbia, it might choose an European path or it might go towards the Russian orbit and invite Russian bases on its soil. A Serbia within EU would actually serve as a Russian 5th column and try to divide and mine the organization from within. That would be a disaster for EU.
To speed Serbia to the EU, as a result of blackmail and uncooperative attitude, would be utterly unfair to the countries that have gone through a grueling entrance process, such as Bulgaria and Romania, or countries that have played by the rules for so long, as Macedonia, Croatia or Albania. It would be a reward for exactely the wrong reasons, and would set an example that you can get your way with EU only if you bully it enough.

Serbia's only real problem with regards candidacy is the Hague in my opinion. The economy of Serbia is fine for candidate status. The Kosovo issue is difficult but not actually a deal breaker on that front (as long as Serbia itself doesn't reject the EU). Cyprus is a member and has a similar frozen conflict. However, I con't see Kosovo becoming a member of the EU anytime soon. I can't see how a state that can't join the UN could join the EU. Albania may act as a supporter, but Peter is right they are also a long way from membership. Kosovo's economy is non existent, and I suppose if Serbia really wanted to block it's EU accession (if Serbia becomes an EU member) it could. Membership is a veto issue, and so All the friendship in the world from Albania may not be enough. However, the EU is very much a "you scratch my back" club, and this is all a long way in the future. The reason Turkey and Croatia have candidate status is because both Britain and Austria wanted one country but not the other, but to get there way on one issue they had to give in on another.

Strange how historically similarities are showing up:
In 1389 Serbia's existance was sacrificed at Kosovo because, due to many reasons, Western Europe did not come to her aid. Now, Serbia "might" get EU status if she abides by European demands, one of which is loss of Kosovo. Will Tadic, who is very pro-EU, again sacrifice "in" Kosovo for, "maybe" EU membership?
What I don't understand is why Serbia cannot become the state he envisions without being in EU. There are a lot of other countries in the world with whom she can create economic ties and be the nation Tadic envisions.
As for Serbia being in geographically in Europe, that cannot change with or without being in the EU. Yes, it would be great to be a part of this economic union, but at what price? Are Serbs to sacrifice their land, heritage, honor, and so much more than any other country to become part of this organization?

Peter,
It seems to me that your evaluations of the economies of W Balkans are more based on general opinion than on actual data. According to the World Bank data, the economies of the W Balkans are pretty much in the same league. See the data below for 2006.

http://ddp-ext.worldbank.org/ext/DDPQQ/member.do?method=getMembers&userid=1&queryId=135


GNI per capita (US$)
Serbia 3910
Albania 2960
Macedonia 3060
Bosnia 2980
Montenegro 3860
Bulgaria 3990
Romania 4850
Croatia 9330
Slovenia 18890
Turkey 5400
Russia 5780
Poland 8190

GDP growth (annual %)
Serbia 5.8
Albania 5.0
Macedonia 3.1
Bosnia 5.7
Montenegro 6.5
Bulgaria 6.1
Romania 7.7
Croatia 4.6
Slovenia 5.2
Turkey 6.1
Russia 6.7
Poland 5.8

Inflation (annual %)
Serbia 14.1
Albania 2.4
Macedonia 3.5
Bosnia 6.8
Montenegro 4.0
Bulgaria 8.1
Romania 10.1
Croatia 2.9
Slovenia 2.3
Turkey 11.5
Russia 16.1
Poland 1.3

Gross capital formation (% of GDP)
Serbia 21.5
Albania 25.6
Macedonia 22.1
Bosnia ..
Montenegro 21.6
Bulgaria 31.9
Romania 23.9
Croatia 30.2
Slovenia 27.5
Turkey 27.0
Russia 20.9
Poland 20.3

Bruce and Peter I very much agree with your posts.

I thought that most of you did not want to be associated with EU nevermind be a member of EU.
There are many hurdless that Serbia needs to go past. \
Kosova is done deal, all they have to do is accept the reality. Next Serbian politicinas will do that easy.
Presheva BUjanovca dn Medvegja region is a big problem.
Mladic, Karadzic and few more hundreds and many more hurdless.
Economy is not performing acording to EU standars.
Infaltion in double figures.

So, Serbia in Eu seems as a logn way away.
I wish that Serbia get in EU tomorrow but not with those problems.

Tadic is choosing his words very carefully here. He's not talking of a EU membership in 2008, rather a European oriented Serbia, which could mean signing the SAA. However, Serbia should join the EU as this would benefit not just the Serbs but also the Albanians, Croats, Macedonians and others. A European Serbia cannot indulge in chauvenistic nationalism that's why its membership is opposed by radicals and those that set the Balkans alight. As for Albania and KosovA, their turn it will come soon enough, don't you worry.

Membership is a veto issue, and so All the friendship in the world from Albania may not be enough.-Bruce

Albania will just find ways for Kosova have all EU benefits even without Kosova being an EU member.
about UN, dont warry, it's achieveable this one

Adrian Gashi

Your statistics do not reflect the economies of the countries in question in a way to compare them, Adrian. GDP Growth is relative (Montenegro has higher growth than Poland, Croatia and Slovenia, does that make its economy better?), Gross Capital Formation is by no means a way to compare economic performance either, that is also relative.

Yes, GNI and Inflation show a lot, but the best way to show economic performance of a country a good comparisons are using the following (other than the latter two):

- Trade Deficit (Imports vs. Exports)
- National Budget (Revenue vs. Expenses)
- Economic Makeup by Sector (Services, Industrial and Agricultural) in terms of percentages
- Economic Aid
- Unemployment
- Population below Poverty Line

This is the best way to do it Adrian. Have a look at those countries in question, then you will see what I mean. Half of your indicators are relative and cannot be compared, have a look according to the criteria I have given you above.

Unfortunately for countries such as Bosnia, Albania and Turkey some members of the European Union, Holland for example, have serious objections against states with a Muslim majority entering the EU. They fear that sooner or later the Islamic culture will take over their Christian traditions. Even though the Serbs have a bad reputation in some EU countries, they will probably enter the EU before Bosnia, Albania and even Turkey will be made members.

Masimmo, you are right, people have been fleeing. The country was unethically chocked with sanctions and then they bombed our civilian targets. Life was extremely hard, so fleeing is a natural consequence. The thing is that at least 10 times more would flee in the first year alone if we joined the EU. We need that skilled labor.

What pains me is to see how the serbian youth of the migrants who fled have been assimilated and have lost serbian culture.

Peter, I do not get what your point is about Serbs being in other countries in the world. They are slowly being assimilated and losing what it means to be serbs. It has happened to every european group that migrated to the US, they become american and are no longer german or irish. They lose their roots. EU investments come for things that give the EU profits, not for things to help out our population. They want to privatize our industry, to buy it off for peanuts. You speak of roads... the EU does not care about most roads. They care about big roads, for their trucks to be able to go from greece to Germany without much trouble. Why should we give them this superb highway for free? Many western values have affected Poland... the youth more so than the older people.

Please do not compare Poland to Serbia, in terms of relations with Russia. Poland has always fought against Russia, so it's Russia's natural enemy. Serbia on the other hand has always been Russia's friend and we have always benefited from cooperation with Russia. Poland has not, but we have. We need something like COMECON back, so that we can have low oil and gas prices. If we are in the EU we can not have this. The Russian market and consumption is booming... it is an ideal place to send our exports... the EU market is not growing nearly as much, so there is less place for us to sell our goods on the EU market.

Dear Lazar, Serbian people, and above all young and more educated people, have been fleeing Serbia for the last 20 years in order to find a better place to live in.

Lazar

Serbs live all over the world. UK, USA, Canada, South Africa, Australia, New Zealand, they are everywhere, so this will not change a thing, only thing is they will not need to fight with citizenship and naturalization issues (plus they will not have to be so far away from Serbia in relation to the latter). The money coming in from the richer EU countries will definitely contribute a big portion of the GDP, investment from the EU countries will improve roads, banking, communications, infrastructure and other things. Don't worry about homosexuality and individualism, it hasn't affected Poland, it won't affect Serbia, if the people want it that way.

As for allying with Russia, why should the EU be an obstacle to that? If it chooses to do so, it can be a part of the EU and a friend of Russia. Also as a Pole, I can tell you that economic reliance like we had for 50 years on Russia (well, USSR then) does not do great things for the economy at all. I am a great admirer of Russia and the Russian people, but I am happy we are a part of the EU.

Olf

Serbia has the same problems all candidate states did, the reason they are joining the EU is to improve their economy. They are not far away at all, much further ahead than Albania, Montenegro and Bosnia and Herzegovina, for instance.

Doni

Of course Serbia has the war criminal issue to overcome. As for recognition of Kosovo, this is not the issue. By the time Kosovo reaches EU candidate standards, Serbia's government may have changed five times. I hope one day that the whole of the Balkans will be in the EU. They don't have to love each other, but as long as they live peacefully, that is all that counts and the best option for the future of everyone.

I'm in full agreement with Peter and Bruce here. The only thing keeping Serbia out of the EU are extraeneous factors; not institutional criteria. Solve Kosovo and meet the requirements for the Hague, and Serbia can begin the long overdue road to the EU immediately. There's not much more to add than what these two posts already said. I like Tadic, and I fully support his party and his political direction. I wish him and Serbia all the best for 2008.

peter
when kosova will be ready for EU, serbia may have changed 1000 governments, but will serbia(people,politicans) have change their attitude??

Peter, you've ignored the data that I brought, so short of uploading the whole WB database here with any conceivable kind of data, I probably won't "win" this argument :)
Yes, I've compared the data that you mentioned, as much as it is available and it again seems that the countries of western Balkans (Serbia, Albania, Macedonia, BH and Montenegro) have pretty much comparable indicators. Bulgaria and Romania are a little bit better, but not by much, and Croatia and Slovenia are a different story. Maybe 20 years ago Albania and Yugoslavia had a huge difference, but these days that's not the case any longer. Albania has had political stability for about 10 years now, while Serbia has still political problems and the direction of the country is uncertain. And don't forget that Albania has a large immigrant population that brought into the country last year close to a billion dollars in remittances. For a small country that amount that enters the local economy is pretty hefty.
So to go back to the original discussion, neither of these countries has any more economic merits than the rest to be in EU. Political and diplomatic considerations on the other hand are a different thing. But I doubt that EU will be making decisions based on some amateurish wishful thinking that on this site are plentiful. The pro-Serbian camp here might have the delusion that Serbia is playing the EU - and that is fine by me - but it appears that EU is just as capable of playing Serbia too around the circle.
In any case I believe is premature to talk of Serbia's chances in EU, since that country doesn't even have the SAA yet. Still a long road before talking of a candidate status.

Marco, yes I'm aware that there is a fringe element in the EU public that would make decisions based on the religion first. But that's not the majority. Also,there is a big difference between Turkey and Albania. The first has an Islamic culture, the second doesn't. Albanians are non-religious by a vast majority and the EU politicians know this, and that why Ambassador van Voorst has stated many times that the Netherlands supports Albania's EU bid. But religion apart, Turkey's case is a different ball game. To begin with, it's too big, and in a few years it will be the most populous country if it was in EU and therefore it would have to be given substantial amount of decision making. That's what really scares EU-crats, and that's why religion becomes a convenient justification for leaving it half-way out. And of course some people will take it, because they can't see any further than religion.

Lazar

Assimilation into the culture Serbs work in is a relative issue. Some will integrate, some won't (they will maintain their roots), all the EU does is give a choice to the average Serb whether they want to stay in Serbia or whether they want to go elsewhere in Europe. You say Poles have been affected by Western values, yes, some have, but this is also relative. Some Poles have been untouched by Western values (most I also am against, such as materialism and individualism), some have only incorporated elements while some have completely submerged into the culture (for lack of a better word) of wherever they are in the West, but at the end of the day, it is their choice.

Yes, perhaps the EU does buy out Serbian government run companies, but this in no way harms the Serbian economy. Serbs are given new job opportunities with new companies appearing, they no longer need visas to travel between European countries to do business, attend conferences, summits and such things, decentralization will just mean that more opportunities will arise for people within the commercial, agricultural and industrial sectors.

The EU does not come to build roads (of course they don't care), however, the EU sets aside money to countries to develop their own roads. How this will harm Serbia, I don't know.

As far as cooperation with Russia goes, like I said, being a part of the EU will not harm relations with Russia. Sure, Russia's economy has performed very impressively lately, but why should Serbia limit its options to Russia only? How would economic cooperation with the EU harm Serbia? In any case Lazar, proportionately speaking, Russia has a long way to go to reach levels of development as seen in Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands, for example. They would not be able to assist in Serbia's economic development like the EU could when so much of Russia remains heavily underdeveloped (I have been to Russia twice, I can say something about this).

To conclude: Serbia should not close their doors to anybody, unless they plan to fall behind everyone else.

Adrian

You are also quite right that times have changed since the times when I had a huge interest in economics (about five years ago, actually), so naturally there have been many factors that could have influenced the economies of the Balkan countries. I am sure you have more perspective than me on this (I have never been to the Balkans, once I was in Bulgaria), so don't quote me on anything recent.

I must actually look into some recent economic developments, then I could perhaps provide a more solid argument than what was then.

I am not saying that connections with the EU should be totally closed. I am just saying that Russia should be our priority, and that we should join the Customs Union that they are making with Belarus and Kazakhstan, called the C.E.S. We can not be in both the CES and the EU. One thing is clear, and that is that the CES is culturally closer to us, and that it has more potential for growth. Yeah, you are right though, Russia as a whole is not like Germany... but Moscow alone is. They are not left in the dust, they are rising like crazy.

The culture thing of assimilation... it is not their choice. It's forced upon them, especially the youth, without them knowing. You are wrong too, for the privatization process harms us as much as it helps us. When the company buys off our company for a few euros, they give lay-offs, so that increases unemployment. They also do not reinvest all of their profits in our country.

no shortcuts to serbia,
if serbia will join by shortcut, albania should join in the same time, in order to keep the balance.
we know that serbs,and they supporters will do anything to keep us out of EU.
Albania must join also so that even if serbs will make EU difficult for us, albania will make it easy for us.

I thought that most of you did not want to be associated with EU nevermind be a member of EU.
There are many hurdless that Serbia needs to go past. \
Kosova is done deal, all they have to do is accept the reality. Next Serbian politicinas will do that easy.
Presheva BUjanovca dn Medvegja region is a big problem.
Mladic, Karadzic and few more hundreds and many more hurdless.
Economy is not performing acording to EU standars.
Infaltion in double figures.

So, Serbia in Eu seems as a logn way away.
I wish that Serbia get in EU tomorrow but not with those problems.

Bruce, I don't think that Serbia's only problem is the Hague. The Hague is only symptomatic of deeper political problems with Serbia, and that is the level of nationalism that is incompatible with European values. A country where an ultra-nationalist party such as the Radical Party is the most voted party in parliament, a country that hasn't yet come to terms with its violent and agressive past and acknowledged its crimes in Bosnia, Croatia and Kosova, is not fit to become a member of EU. Serbia still maintains an agressive posture towards its neighbors, as witnessed by Kostunica's remarks towards Bosnia and that posture causes still much instability in the region. And, right now everything is up in the air with Serbia, it might choose an European path or it might go towards the Russian orbit and invite Russian bases on its soil. A Serbia within EU would actually serve as a Russian 5th column and try to divide and mine the organization from within. That would be a disaster for EU.
To speed Serbia to the EU, as a result of blackmail and uncooperative attitude, would be utterly unfair to the countries that have gone through a grueling entrance process, such as Bulgaria and Romania, or countries that have played by the rules for so long, as Macedonia, Croatia or Albania. It would be a reward for exactely the wrong reasons, and would set an example that you can get your way with EU only if you bully it enough.

Sorry Tadic, but it is not good for Serbia to accept the European values of being their economic colony... much like Slovakia or Bulgaria is today. We should not want to solve unemployment by having people flee to western europe in search of jobs. Furthermore, we need our trade barriers because we can not compete against the Western Giants. We are not prone to accept other western values, such as homosexualism, or individualism. We are orthodox, and should align ourselves with our true ally, Russia. Hm, I wonder if Tadic supported the Bombing of Serbia in 1999... those were European Values. Breaking Kosmet away from Serbia is also considered to be European values. It's not good.

Dear Lazar, Serbian people, and above all young and more educated people, have been fleeing Serbia for the last 20 years in order to find a better place to live in.

Tadic is choosing his words very carefully here. He's not talking of a EU membership in 2008, rather a European oriented Serbia, which could mean signing the SAA. However, Serbia should join the EU as this would benefit not just the Serbs but also the Albanians, Croats, Macedonians and others. A European Serbia cannot indulge in chauvenistic nationalism that's why its membership is opposed by radicals and those that set the Balkans alight. As for Albania and KosovA, their turn it will come soon enough, don't you worry.

peter

i agree with you, but everything should be based on merits, freedoms, rights,etc etc ...in few words all good things that citiziens benefit.
but not shortcuts, Because serbia takes it for granted and serbs will never appreciate it, and will use their possition to satisfy their "inat" by blocking Kosova wherever and whenever they can. Instead of using it for common good for all EU citisiens.
and this will create another problem huge in EU or maybe the end of EU over unity, now it seems far away, but it will come.
Serbia is not in EU and you have divisions imagine if serbia is in EU. and be realistic, dont think like yourself.
why albania in EU if serbia in EU? albania has shown that it has contributed a lot in the regional stability despite others.
if albania would have behaved like serbia when seeing that ethinic albanians outside its borders were being misstreated and undermined, then you can oppose.
but albania played constructive role, for the common good of all, and this made the West understand the truth.

Membership is a veto issue, and so All the friendship in the world from Albania may not be enough.-Bruce

Albania will just find ways for Kosova have all EU benefits even without Kosova being an EU member.
about UN, dont warry, it's achieveable this one

peter
when kosova will be ready for EU, serbia may have changed 1000 governments, but will serbia(people,politicans) have change their attitude??

Doni

Albania is still too poor to join the EU. It needs to have the minimal requirements as per the Copenhagen Criteria to become a candidate. Have a look at who is a candidate now: Croatia, who is about the same economically as Poland, Macedonia, who is about the same economically as Bulgaria, Turkey, who is about the same economically as Romania, but Albania still needs to speed up their development in order to join as they are behind even those countries.

Serbia on the other hand has a more developed and more stable economy than Albania and does not need the same level of reforms in order to join. Even aside from the Kosovo issue, Serbia is quite ready to become an EU candidate, as they are roughly on par with Romania, Bulgaria and Macedonia.

In general, I agree that no shortcuts should be given to any country, but if it will defuse tension then I don't see why there should be no exceptions made. Kosovo will get their independence outside of the UNSC, so there should be no double standard against Serbia.

Strange how historically similarities are showing up:
In 1389 Serbia's existance was sacrificed at Kosovo because, due to many reasons, Western Europe did not come to her aid. Now, Serbia "might" get EU status if she abides by European demands, one of which is loss of Kosovo. Will Tadic, who is very pro-EU, again sacrifice "in" Kosovo for, "maybe" EU membership?
What I don't understand is why Serbia cannot become the state he envisions without being in EU. There are a lot of other countries in the world with whom she can create economic ties and be the nation Tadic envisions.
As for Serbia being in geographically in Europe, that cannot change with or without being in the EU. Yes, it would be great to be a part of this economic union, but at what price? Are Serbs to sacrifice their land, heritage, honor, and so much more than any other country to become part of this organization?

I respect Mr. Tadic's love and respect for Serbia and the Serbian people. It is clear that he wants to do what he thinks is best for Serbia.

However the European Union is not whats best for Serbia. How is it possible to join such a organization that wants to strip away our own soverignty from us. Nobody made Belguim, Spain, France strip any land away from there soverignty and that shouldn't happen to Serbia.

Therefore The EU is not best for Serbia

the European Union and the United States is not the entire world.... accelerating economic cooperation with Russia, China, India, the Arab World and plus the EU countries who will not recognize a independent Kosovo.. Spain, Greece, Cyprus, Slovakia and Romania

Peter,
It seems to me that your evaluations of the economies of W Balkans are more based on general opinion than on actual data. According to the World Bank data, the economies of the W Balkans are pretty much in the same league. See the data below for 2006.

http://ddp-ext.worldbank.org/ext/DDPQQ/member.do?method=getMembers&userid=1&queryId=135


GNI per capita (US$)
Serbia 3910
Albania 2960
Macedonia 3060
Bosnia 2980
Montenegro 3860
Bulgaria 3990
Romania 4850
Croatia 9330
Slovenia 18890
Turkey 5400
Russia 5780
Poland 8190

GDP growth (annual %)
Serbia 5.8
Albania 5.0
Macedonia 3.1
Bosnia 5.7
Montenegro 6.5
Bulgaria 6.1
Romania 7.7
Croatia 4.6
Slovenia 5.2
Turkey 6.1
Russia 6.7
Poland 5.8

Inflation (annual %)
Serbia 14.1
Albania 2.4
Macedonia 3.5
Bosnia 6.8
Montenegro 4.0
Bulgaria 8.1
Romania 10.1
Croatia 2.9
Slovenia 2.3
Turkey 11.5
Russia 16.1
Poland 1.3

Gross capital formation (% of GDP)
Serbia 21.5
Albania 25.6
Macedonia 22.1
Bosnia ..
Montenegro 21.6
Bulgaria 31.9
Romania 23.9
Croatia 30.2
Slovenia 27.5
Turkey 27.0
Russia 20.9
Poland 20.3

Peter, you've ignored the data that I brought, so short of uploading the whole WB database here with any conceivable kind of data, I probably won't "win" this argument :)
Yes, I've compared the data that you mentioned, as much as it is available and it again seems that the countries of western Balkans (Serbia, Albania, Macedonia, BH and Montenegro) have pretty much comparable indicators. Bulgaria and Romania are a little bit better, but not by much, and Croatia and Slovenia are a different story. Maybe 20 years ago Albania and Yugoslavia had a huge difference, but these days that's not the case any longer. Albania has had political stability for about 10 years now, while Serbia has still political problems and the direction of the country is uncertain. And don't forget that Albania has a large immigrant population that brought into the country last year close to a billion dollars in remittances. For a small country that amount that enters the local economy is pretty hefty.
So to go back to the original discussion, neither of these countries has any more economic merits than the rest to be in EU. Political and diplomatic considerations on the other hand are a different thing. But I doubt that EU will be making decisions based on some amateurish wishful thinking that on this site are plentiful. The pro-Serbian camp here might have the delusion that Serbia is playing the EU - and that is fine by me - but it appears that EU is just as capable of playing Serbia too around the circle.
In any case I believe is premature to talk of Serbia's chances in EU, since that country doesn't even have the SAA yet. Still a long road before talking of a candidate status.

Marco, yes I'm aware that there is a fringe element in the EU public that would make decisions based on the religion first. But that's not the majority. Also,there is a big difference between Turkey and Albania. The first has an Islamic culture, the second doesn't. Albanians are non-religious by a vast majority and the EU politicians know this, and that why Ambassador van Voorst has stated many times that the Netherlands supports Albania's EU bid. But religion apart, Turkey's case is a different ball game. To begin with, it's too big, and in a few years it will be the most populous country if it was in EU and therefore it would have to be given substantial amount of decision making. That's what really scares EU-crats, and that's why religion becomes a convenient justification for leaving it half-way out. And of course some people will take it, because they can't see any further than religion.

Serbia's only real problem with regards candidacy is the Hague in my opinion. The economy of Serbia is fine for candidate status. The Kosovo issue is difficult but not actually a deal breaker on that front (as long as Serbia itself doesn't reject the EU). Cyprus is a member and has a similar frozen conflict. However, I con't see Kosovo becoming a member of the EU anytime soon. I can't see how a state that can't join the UN could join the EU. Albania may act as a supporter, but Peter is right they are also a long way from membership. Kosovo's economy is non existent, and I suppose if Serbia really wanted to block it's EU accession (if Serbia becomes an EU member) it could. Membership is a veto issue, and so All the friendship in the world from Albania may not be enough. However, the EU is very much a "you scratch my back" club, and this is all a long way in the future. The reason Turkey and Croatia have candidate status is because both Britain and Austria wanted one country but not the other, but to get there way on one issue they had to give in on another.

Bruce and Peter I very much agree with your posts.

Lazar

Serbs live all over the world. UK, USA, Canada, South Africa, Australia, New Zealand, they are everywhere, so this will not change a thing, only thing is they will not need to fight with citizenship and naturalization issues (plus they will not have to be so far away from Serbia in relation to the latter). The money coming in from the richer EU countries will definitely contribute a big portion of the GDP, investment from the EU countries will improve roads, banking, communications, infrastructure and other things. Don't worry about homosexuality and individualism, it hasn't affected Poland, it won't affect Serbia, if the people want it that way.

As for allying with Russia, why should the EU be an obstacle to that? If it chooses to do so, it can be a part of the EU and a friend of Russia. Also as a Pole, I can tell you that economic reliance like we had for 50 years on Russia (well, USSR then) does not do great things for the economy at all. I am a great admirer of Russia and the Russian people, but I am happy we are a part of the EU.

Olf

Serbia has the same problems all candidate states did, the reason they are joining the EU is to improve their economy. They are not far away at all, much further ahead than Albania, Montenegro and Bosnia and Herzegovina, for instance.

Doni

Of course Serbia has the war criminal issue to overcome. As for recognition of Kosovo, this is not the issue. By the time Kosovo reaches EU candidate standards, Serbia's government may have changed five times. I hope one day that the whole of the Balkans will be in the EU. They don't have to love each other, but as long as they live peacefully, that is all that counts and the best option for the future of everyone.

I'm in full agreement with Peter and Bruce here. The only thing keeping Serbia out of the EU are extraeneous factors; not institutional criteria. Solve Kosovo and meet the requirements for the Hague, and Serbia can begin the long overdue road to the EU immediately. There's not much more to add than what these two posts already said. I like Tadic, and I fully support his party and his political direction. I wish him and Serbia all the best for 2008.

Adrian Gashi

Your statistics do not reflect the economies of the countries in question in a way to compare them, Adrian. GDP Growth is relative (Montenegro has higher growth than Poland, Croatia and Slovenia, does that make its economy better?), Gross Capital Formation is by no means a way to compare economic performance either, that is also relative.

Yes, GNI and Inflation show a lot, but the best way to show economic performance of a country a good comparisons are using the following (other than the latter two):

- Trade Deficit (Imports vs. Exports)
- National Budget (Revenue vs. Expenses)
- Economic Makeup by Sector (Services, Industrial and Agricultural) in terms of percentages
- Economic Aid
- Unemployment
- Population below Poverty Line

This is the best way to do it Adrian. Have a look at those countries in question, then you will see what I mean. Half of your indicators are relative and cannot be compared, have a look according to the criteria I have given you above.

Unfortunately for countries such as Bosnia, Albania and Turkey some members of the European Union, Holland for example, have serious objections against states with a Muslim majority entering the EU. They fear that sooner or later the Islamic culture will take over their Christian traditions. Even though the Serbs have a bad reputation in some EU countries, they will probably enter the EU before Bosnia, Albania and even Turkey will be made members.

Masimmo, you are right, people have been fleeing. The country was unethically chocked with sanctions and then they bombed our civilian targets. Life was extremely hard, so fleeing is a natural consequence. The thing is that at least 10 times more would flee in the first year alone if we joined the EU. We need that skilled labor.

What pains me is to see how the serbian youth of the migrants who fled have been assimilated and have lost serbian culture.

Peter, I do not get what your point is about Serbs being in other countries in the world. They are slowly being assimilated and losing what it means to be serbs. It has happened to every european group that migrated to the US, they become american and are no longer german or irish. They lose their roots. EU investments come for things that give the EU profits, not for things to help out our population. They want to privatize our industry, to buy it off for peanuts. You speak of roads... the EU does not care about most roads. They care about big roads, for their trucks to be able to go from greece to Germany without much trouble. Why should we give them this superb highway for free? Many western values have affected Poland... the youth more so than the older people.

Please do not compare Poland to Serbia, in terms of relations with Russia. Poland has always fought against Russia, so it's Russia's natural enemy. Serbia on the other hand has always been Russia's friend and we have always benefited from cooperation with Russia. Poland has not, but we have. We need something like COMECON back, so that we can have low oil and gas prices. If we are in the EU we can not have this. The Russian market and consumption is booming... it is an ideal place to send our exports... the EU market is not growing nearly as much, so there is less place for us to sell our goods on the EU market.

Lazar

Assimilation into the culture Serbs work in is a relative issue. Some will integrate, some won't (they will maintain their roots), all the EU does is give a choice to the average Serb whether they want to stay in Serbia or whether they want to go elsewhere in Europe. You say Poles have been affected by Western values, yes, some have, but this is also relative. Some Poles have been untouched by Western values (most I also am against, such as materialism and individualism), some have only incorporated elements while some have completely submerged into the culture (for lack of a better word) of wherever they are in the West, but at the end of the day, it is their choice.

Yes, perhaps the EU does buy out Serbian government run companies, but this in no way harms the Serbian economy. Serbs are given new job opportunities with new companies appearing, they no longer need visas to travel between European countries to do business, attend conferences, summits and such things, decentralization will just mean that more opportunities will arise for people within the commercial, agricultural and industrial sectors.

The EU does not come to build roads (of course they don't care), however, the EU sets aside money to countries to develop their own roads. How this will harm Serbia, I don't know.

As far as cooperation with Russia goes, like I said, being a part of the EU will not harm relations with Russia. Sure, Russia's economy has performed very impressively lately, but why should Serbia limit its options to Russia only? How would economic cooperation with the EU harm Serbia? In any case Lazar, proportionately speaking, Russia has a long way to go to reach levels of development as seen in Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands, for example. They would not be able to assist in Serbia's economic development like the EU could when so much of Russia remains heavily underdeveloped (I have been to Russia twice, I can say something about this).

To conclude: Serbia should not close their doors to anybody, unless they plan to fall behind everyone else.

Adrian

You are also quite right that times have changed since the times when I had a huge interest in economics (about five years ago, actually), so naturally there have been many factors that could have influenced the economies of the Balkan countries. I am sure you have more perspective than me on this (I have never been to the Balkans, once I was in Bulgaria), so don't quote me on anything recent.

I must actually look into some recent economic developments, then I could perhaps provide a more solid argument than what was then.

I am not saying that connections with the EU should be totally closed. I am just saying that Russia should be our priority, and that we should join the Customs Union that they are making with Belarus and Kazakhstan, called the C.E.S. We can not be in both the CES and the EU. One thing is clear, and that is that the CES is culturally closer to us, and that it has more potential for growth. Yeah, you are right though, Russia as a whole is not like Germany... but Moscow alone is. They are not left in the dust, they are rising like crazy.

The culture thing of assimilation... it is not their choice. It's forced upon them, especially the youth, without them knowing. You are wrong too, for the privatization process harms us as much as it helps us. When the company buys off our company for a few euros, they give lay-offs, so that increases unemployment. They also do not reinvest all of their profits in our country.