Troika presents Kosovo report to Ban

What ever Moon decide the independence wont take place before May 2008 according the International Crisis group. After May 2008 the decision on status will be prolonged for December 2008, and after that who knows, maybe independence never actually happen.

However, if Kosovo gain illegal independence Republika Srpska will make referendum on selfdetermination (read independence)

Ahtisaari Plan will lead to long term instability and much resentment. It will act as a precedent for several other conflicts - including in the Balkans. The principle of ethnic take over will be well established and lead to fascistic and nationalistic politics in many more countries.

It's not a good idea.

If the international community really cared about human rights they would be invading Dafur where the number of killed and abused is astronomical compared with the numbers affected in Kosovo.

As expected. When will the world realize that they are wasting valuable time. Serbia is dedicating way too much of its resources to an impossible goal. Kosovo is being held off from turning to development issues and improving the life of people there.

I think the best way to proceed, morally and logically would be the following:
http://www.newkosovareport.com/20071206304/Views-&-Analysis/Kosovo-Countdown-A-Blueprint-for-Transition.html

It very clearly states how the world should proceed and why.

Romania turned around yesterday by saying they will do whatever the US and EU coordinate...

Rice is supposed to pressure Greece today in the NATO summit.

So yeah, I mean, these small countries aren't a big deal anyway. The only big one is Spain, and Spain is a much more mature political body so it can be pursued with Western tactic.

Serbia will keep losing unfortunately. We will lose Kosovo, won't be able to get let into the EU until Mladic gets caught, even when he does get caught something else will come along, and Republic of Srpska will not be able to become independent.

This report will be positive for albanians I am sure of it.
Because US will never allow anyone to undermine Albanians anywhere in the world.

I think that this will happen:

Report is submitted today, December the 19th the UNSC will discuss the report, Russia will threaten a veto and demand further discussions, US will pressure EU unity to byspass the UNSC and enforce the Ahtisaari Plan in Kosovo, NATO will prepare for unrest.

The thing is it is not known whether or not the EU states with reservations will be pursuaded with the situation as it is now, obviously the US will not be able to pressure them, but major EU powers might try, not sure if they will achieve anything.

The question is how will Pristina react. For this to go smoothly they cannot declare unilateral indendence unless they have the whole of the EU on their side, individual nations here and there recognizing it while others not will just show that the international community has failed and that international law is not upheld at all times.

Best solution now would be the Ahtisaari Plan, I am pretty sure that after December the 19th the UN head will suggest this as the best plan on the table.

Now the real issue is no longer what the status of Kosova will be, because that is a foregone conclusion with even Spain and Romania jumping on board and dropping their objections. The real issue is what is Serbia gonna do about it. And this could be tricky indeed for all involved because many Serb politicians like Kostunica seem to suffer from an irrational 'Czar Lazar and Battle of Kosovo' complex and this is really dangerous.

I knew that Romania and Greece could not hold out for too long. The reason is regional interests. While they of course have an affinity with Serbia, they also see that independence of Kosovo is inevitable, whether they like it or not, and they risk to loose out on an opportunity for some very profitable investments. Kosova is parched for investments and it also has one of the richest soil in Balkans in minerals. On top of it, it has the largest reserves of lignite that can light up the Balkans for decades to come, at the time when the energy markets in the region are starved for new sources of energy after Bulgaria's nuclear plants were closed down by the EU last year. And with Serbia threatening an economic blockade, it opens up oportunities in import-export too. The security risks are minimal as long as NATO is in and Aviano is only 20 mins away by fighter jet, and everyone can see that behind Belgrade's alarmist statements, there will not be another conflict in the region.
So, whoever remains close to Kosova when the dust of intl recognition settles, in the next 6-12 months, stands to make a hefty profit. Bulgaria is positioning itself in that respect and Greece and Rumania see this. Their heart might be with Belgrade, but their pockets pull them in the opposite direction. So they might make declarations for now, but when push comes to shove 3 months down the road, they will move in with the rest of the pack.

I been tring to imagin how Serbia would look wihtout s-kosovo and the RS attached to it. The Serbian population in Voivodina will boom to 80-85% & thats what the Hungarien minority is afraid of. Sorry Joe but you supported indep of Kosovo. This may have an up side to it. We may gain in the future the RS after they declair independence and threaten with unrest untill they get it. But Serbia can rid it's self of "2 million albanians" that wish for the death of Serbia. & gain the Serbs and land of the RS since Bosnia is a failed state and will fall apart shortly. Then we can sit back and watch as the Albanians rip apart Macedonia, Montenagro & Northern Greese & the misson of "Greater Albania" will be achived, then we will have peace in the Balkans. It will be a trategy that we may lose a part of Kosovo but we must look to the future of Serbia & the addtion of the RS to it.

Serbia will keep losing unfortunately. We will lose Kosovo, won't be able to get let into the EU until Mladic gets caught, even when he does get caught something else will come along, and Republic of Srpska will not be able to become independent.
(belgrader, 7 December 2007 13:07)

Belgrader cheer up. As for Kosova, it was never yours or Serbias..it belongs to the Kosovars. As for the EU, it's true that you have to work at it, let go of the international wanted terrorists and stop electing criminals in parliament---they only plan to stay in power, anti-patriotic to the bone.

I'm sure someday Kosova and Serbia in EU; it's not a dream, it can happen.

Wow I guess this is the wrong comment section I seem to have stumbled in a parallel universe.

"US will never allow anyone to undermine Albanians anywhere in the world."

LOL and there it is...my friend the US Never and I mean never does anything for free, more importantly the US has no friends only interests, they don't give a hoot for albanians and neither does Europe, you luckily only serve there interest this one time but don't get too cozy they will expect their payment soon.

belgrader? I am not sure how much of a belgrader you really are...

funcakes get out of the kitchen and stop making up lies, Romania said nothing like that.

The report will be negative for the albanians simply because they have done no negotiating.

"it was never yours or Serbias..it belongs to the Kosovars"

...first off learn to spell, second whats a Kosovar?

no recognition
no prosperity
no independence

not while Serbia is still here ;)

"Because US will never allow anyone to undermine Albanians anywhere in the world."

What a naive statement!
The majority of Americans don't even know where Albania is on a world map.
Surely, you can’t be serious.

Over 90% of Kosova is Albanian population. Serbia has occupied Kosova for a period of 100 years and they officially lost it in 1999. There is a small percentage of serbs in Kosova. They would be better off if the Serbian state recognized Kosova. Otherwise, serbs in Kosova will be manipoulated by Serbia (as they are). I invite Kosova serbs to abandon the senseless manipulative relationship with Serbia and to become honest citizens of Kosova. It will serve them better.

B92: If you gut to cut something, I'd rather you wouldn't post my comment at all. I really do not understand why you thought the rest of my comment inappropriate,but that is up to you. What I am not happy with is that you turned a comment that was supposed to be ironic into a dire warning. Anyway, thanx for the good work.

Just look at the reactions here.I must say that this forum has come to and gone way beyond a sort of comic relief.Anytime there is any vague news about what a diplomat thinks or what some group has stated everyone jumps to the point of view they support a grand wishful thinking.All of a sudden various posters here become experts on Serbian politics or world leaders true thoughts.Sure Mr Moon's statement is important I would say 98% of the comments cannot hold water and range from the interesting to the utterly absurd.As far as the first comment from Hes I stopped reading the link when I read the incorrect spelling of Kosovo.

Well we've basically got two routes now: the UN and the EU.

If we go through the UN, we know Russia and/or China will veto the bill, so there will be the process of watering down the resolution enough to get the Russians/Chinese to at least abstain. At the point, there's little left to Kosovo's future.

If we go through the EU, we have at least 7 states that are opposed to independence, and a good number more that want a negotiated solution. The EU route is easier since Russia is out of the picture, and the likelihod for compromise (albeit a tangible compromise) is more likely.

Implement AP as a default is a good start to at least empower the necessary political institutions to make Kosovo a workable entity, though I can only imagine the social and local provisions will be enacted first - the issues pertaining to sovereignty are most likely to be put off for a while.

"If we go through the UN, we know Russia and/or China will veto the bill,"

Mike, not that it really matter, but where did you hear that China would use its veto? When a chinese diplomat has ever said that? China has no reason whatsoever to antagonize the west for the sake of Serbia. There is no logic why China would veto the bill. China probably doesn't like the idea of Kosova's independence but it doesn't need to use its veto. When it comes to Taiwan then it will use it if that's the case.

Serb camp always claim that "the albanians want greater serbia" but here you have a prime example such as Delije who is talking about ripping self proclaimed RS and doing this and that and adding to Serbia. Tell me this..when was the last time any pro-independence camp said, "as soon as kosova is independent let's join it with Albania and have Cameria join Albania as well?" You ever heard that? NO!!! Albanians demand equal treatment of it's people world-wide.

Serbia will keep losing unfortunately. We will lose Kosovo, won't be able to get let into the EU until Mladic gets caught, even when he does get caught something else will come along, and Republic of Srpska will not be able to become independent.
(belgrader, 7 December 2007 13:07)

Belgrader cheer up. As for Kosova, it was never yours or Serbias..it belongs to the Kosovars. As for the EU, it's true that you have to work at it, let go of the international wanted terrorists and stop electing criminals in parliament---they only plan to stay in power, anti-patriotic to the bone.

I'm sure someday Kosova and Serbia in EU; it's not a dream, it can happen.

Romania turned around yesterday by saying they will do whatever the US and EU coordinate...

Rice is supposed to pressure Greece today in the NATO summit.

So yeah, I mean, these small countries aren't a big deal anyway. The only big one is Spain, and Spain is a much more mature political body so it can be pursued with Western tactic.

This report will be positive for albanians I am sure of it.
Because US will never allow anyone to undermine Albanians anywhere in the world.

Serbia will keep losing unfortunately. We will lose Kosovo, won't be able to get let into the EU until Mladic gets caught, even when he does get caught something else will come along, and Republic of Srpska will not be able to become independent.

As expected. When will the world realize that they are wasting valuable time. Serbia is dedicating way too much of its resources to an impossible goal. Kosovo is being held off from turning to development issues and improving the life of people there.

I think the best way to proceed, morally and logically would be the following:
http://www.newkosovareport.com/20071206304/Views-&-Analysis/Kosovo-Countdown-A-Blueprint-for-Transition.html

It very clearly states how the world should proceed and why.

I think that this will happen:

Report is submitted today, December the 19th the UNSC will discuss the report, Russia will threaten a veto and demand further discussions, US will pressure EU unity to byspass the UNSC and enforce the Ahtisaari Plan in Kosovo, NATO will prepare for unrest.

The thing is it is not known whether or not the EU states with reservations will be pursuaded with the situation as it is now, obviously the US will not be able to pressure them, but major EU powers might try, not sure if they will achieve anything.

The question is how will Pristina react. For this to go smoothly they cannot declare unilateral indendence unless they have the whole of the EU on their side, individual nations here and there recognizing it while others not will just show that the international community has failed and that international law is not upheld at all times.

Best solution now would be the Ahtisaari Plan, I am pretty sure that after December the 19th the UN head will suggest this as the best plan on the table.

Now the real issue is no longer what the status of Kosova will be, because that is a foregone conclusion with even Spain and Romania jumping on board and dropping their objections. The real issue is what is Serbia gonna do about it. And this could be tricky indeed for all involved because many Serb politicians like Kostunica seem to suffer from an irrational 'Czar Lazar and Battle of Kosovo' complex and this is really dangerous.

I knew that Romania and Greece could not hold out for too long. The reason is regional interests. While they of course have an affinity with Serbia, they also see that independence of Kosovo is inevitable, whether they like it or not, and they risk to loose out on an opportunity for some very profitable investments. Kosova is parched for investments and it also has one of the richest soil in Balkans in minerals. On top of it, it has the largest reserves of lignite that can light up the Balkans for decades to come, at the time when the energy markets in the region are starved for new sources of energy after Bulgaria's nuclear plants were closed down by the EU last year. And with Serbia threatening an economic blockade, it opens up oportunities in import-export too. The security risks are minimal as long as NATO is in and Aviano is only 20 mins away by fighter jet, and everyone can see that behind Belgrade's alarmist statements, there will not be another conflict in the region.
So, whoever remains close to Kosova when the dust of intl recognition settles, in the next 6-12 months, stands to make a hefty profit. Bulgaria is positioning itself in that respect and Greece and Rumania see this. Their heart might be with Belgrade, but their pockets pull them in the opposite direction. So they might make declarations for now, but when push comes to shove 3 months down the road, they will move in with the rest of the pack.

Over 90% of Kosova is Albanian population. Serbia has occupied Kosova for a period of 100 years and they officially lost it in 1999. There is a small percentage of serbs in Kosova. They would be better off if the Serbian state recognized Kosova. Otherwise, serbs in Kosova will be manipoulated by Serbia (as they are). I invite Kosova serbs to abandon the senseless manipulative relationship with Serbia and to become honest citizens of Kosova. It will serve them better.

What ever Moon decide the independence wont take place before May 2008 according the International Crisis group. After May 2008 the decision on status will be prolonged for December 2008, and after that who knows, maybe independence never actually happen.

However, if Kosovo gain illegal independence Republika Srpska will make referendum on selfdetermination (read independence)

Ahtisaari Plan will lead to long term instability and much resentment. It will act as a precedent for several other conflicts - including in the Balkans. The principle of ethnic take over will be well established and lead to fascistic and nationalistic politics in many more countries.

It's not a good idea.

If the international community really cared about human rights they would be invading Dafur where the number of killed and abused is astronomical compared with the numbers affected in Kosovo.

B92: If you gut to cut something, I'd rather you wouldn't post my comment at all. I really do not understand why you thought the rest of my comment inappropriate,but that is up to you. What I am not happy with is that you turned a comment that was supposed to be ironic into a dire warning. Anyway, thanx for the good work.

"Because US will never allow anyone to undermine Albanians anywhere in the world."

What a naive statement!
The majority of Americans don't even know where Albania is on a world map.
Surely, you can’t be serious.

I been tring to imagin how Serbia would look wihtout s-kosovo and the RS attached to it. The Serbian population in Voivodina will boom to 80-85% & thats what the Hungarien minority is afraid of. Sorry Joe but you supported indep of Kosovo. This may have an up side to it. We may gain in the future the RS after they declair independence and threaten with unrest untill they get it. But Serbia can rid it's self of "2 million albanians" that wish for the death of Serbia. & gain the Serbs and land of the RS since Bosnia is a failed state and will fall apart shortly. Then we can sit back and watch as the Albanians rip apart Macedonia, Montenagro & Northern Greese & the misson of "Greater Albania" will be achived, then we will have peace in the Balkans. It will be a trategy that we may lose a part of Kosovo but we must look to the future of Serbia & the addtion of the RS to it.

Wow I guess this is the wrong comment section I seem to have stumbled in a parallel universe.

"US will never allow anyone to undermine Albanians anywhere in the world."

LOL and there it is...my friend the US Never and I mean never does anything for free, more importantly the US has no friends only interests, they don't give a hoot for albanians and neither does Europe, you luckily only serve there interest this one time but don't get too cozy they will expect their payment soon.

belgrader? I am not sure how much of a belgrader you really are...

funcakes get out of the kitchen and stop making up lies, Romania said nothing like that.

The report will be negative for the albanians simply because they have done no negotiating.

"it was never yours or Serbias..it belongs to the Kosovars"

...first off learn to spell, second whats a Kosovar?

no recognition
no prosperity
no independence

not while Serbia is still here ;)

Just look at the reactions here.I must say that this forum has come to and gone way beyond a sort of comic relief.Anytime there is any vague news about what a diplomat thinks or what some group has stated everyone jumps to the point of view they support a grand wishful thinking.All of a sudden various posters here become experts on Serbian politics or world leaders true thoughts.Sure Mr Moon's statement is important I would say 98% of the comments cannot hold water and range from the interesting to the utterly absurd.As far as the first comment from Hes I stopped reading the link when I read the incorrect spelling of Kosovo.

Well we've basically got two routes now: the UN and the EU.

If we go through the UN, we know Russia and/or China will veto the bill, so there will be the process of watering down the resolution enough to get the Russians/Chinese to at least abstain. At the point, there's little left to Kosovo's future.

If we go through the EU, we have at least 7 states that are opposed to independence, and a good number more that want a negotiated solution. The EU route is easier since Russia is out of the picture, and the likelihod for compromise (albeit a tangible compromise) is more likely.

Implement AP as a default is a good start to at least empower the necessary political institutions to make Kosovo a workable entity, though I can only imagine the social and local provisions will be enacted first - the issues pertaining to sovereignty are most likely to be put off for a while.

"If we go through the UN, we know Russia and/or China will veto the bill,"

Mike, not that it really matter, but where did you hear that China would use its veto? When a chinese diplomat has ever said that? China has no reason whatsoever to antagonize the west for the sake of Serbia. There is no logic why China would veto the bill. China probably doesn't like the idea of Kosova's independence but it doesn't need to use its veto. When it comes to Taiwan then it will use it if that's the case.

Serb camp always claim that "the albanians want greater serbia" but here you have a prime example such as Delije who is talking about ripping self proclaimed RS and doing this and that and adding to Serbia. Tell me this..when was the last time any pro-independence camp said, "as soon as kosova is independent let's join it with Albania and have Cameria join Albania as well?" You ever heard that? NO!!! Albanians demand equal treatment of it's people world-wide.