“If Kosovo can be independent, so can Abkhazia”

This is the kind of thing that happens when countries like the US and UK try to pick and choose which bits of international law they wish to obey and which bits to ignore. With Serbia's province of Kosovo, they are trying to bend or break international law and that can reignite dormant conflicts elsewhere, as Russia is hinting.

This is exactly what I have been speaking about all along. This isn't the first time Moscow has said they will recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Knowing how Russia dealt with Chechnya, I don't see why they wouldn't recognize these states and cause more turmoil in the Caucasus.

This is why I believe that the US and Russia are acting incredibly irresponsibly, because for them it has nothing to do with the interests of those who want to break away. It is all pure politics.

If Kosovo can be independent, then so can Republika Srpska, and so can the North Mitrovica pocket. I don't think the Russians could have been any more clear to the US as to what will happen if they go ahead with their illegal and immoral recognition of
'greater albania'.

Yeah, now that i think about,
i always liked those Ossetians wanting to get rid of Georgian tyranny! :)

And indeed if Russia pushes for indepencde for South Ossetia and Abkhazia then Chechnya can become independend as well.
(Richard Z, 25. October 2007 12:33)

No,it can not Richard?And you know why?Cause Russia has like 3.000 nuclear warheads,and country who has that can do what it wants...more or less:-)

EA: "Can you see that Russia is looking to Kosova as a bargain point? That is how Russia sees it! Kosova is not for bargain."

How do you think the US sees it? They too are using it as a bargaining chip.

Richard Z - I agree that Russia and the US are making things more complicated, but disagree that Russia is 'blocking any resolution'.

They are blocking independence of 15% of a sovereign nation being forced through illegally.

The US, UK and others have used their vetoes in the UN far more than Russia. While I am not a natural supporter of Russia, in this case I am.

Why should the US or any other nation be allowed to bypass international law and just decide to cut off part of a country? It's a terrible precedent.

If Kosovo will be part of Serbia again, will Russia then also stop occupying parts of Moldova and Georgia, withdraw the Russian military and facilitate re-integration of Abchazia and South-Ossetia into Georgia and Trans-Djnestria into Moldavia?

Politics or not Peter, but what's good for the goose is good for the gander.
If the US thinks it can break the law and nobody is going to care they will get a wake up call.
Nobody is above the law, including the US.
I agree with you that we don't want to stir up any more trouble around the world, but how else can Russia get through to the US that they cannot go on bullying the world and deciding who lives and who dies.

Unfortunate as it may be but you have to fight fire with fire sometimes.

Maybe this will alert Europe not to follow American foreign policy so blindly. Just because the US is a democratic country doesn't mean they are just. Justice HAS to be considered instead of profit and control.
Apart from the civil war American people have never had to fight a war on their territory, so they don't know how brutal war it. Europe has had to endure wars for centuries and they should be smarter than that.
Europeans have to stop their governments doing America's dirty work and think about the consequences of doing what is best for America instead of what is best for Europe.
We should stop thinking in terms of following the US or Russia but think in terms of what is best for Europe.

teni and Richard Z

Chechnya of today has a pro-Moscow government, and most of the separatist leaders (Aslan Maskhadov and Shamil Basayev) have been killed, so it is generally now a stable region that is undergoing economic recovery. Even the OECD claims that the economy has improved drastically since 2000, so I think Chechnya will not push for independence any more. The Ichkeria government is unpopular and supported only by a few fundamentalists, so there is not even a risk of separatism from Chechnya on the whole. Yeltsin made a horrible mistake with Chechnya, but Putin managed to sort things out, so I don't believe an independent Kosovo or Abkhazia would start a precedent in Chechnya or Dagestan.

EA

"it is a unique case"

How?

The parallelism is absolutely not wrong in terms of:

History (the way Albanian Kosovo was butted onto Serbia after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire is identical to how Abkhazia and South Ossetia were randomly butted onto Georgia by Stalin)

Geography (how is this unique? Georgia is a part of Europe too, hence these two regions are also! What does it matter if one is in the Caucasus and one in the Balkans?)

The ethnic cleansing committed by the Serbian State (fair enough, but remember, the Serbian crackdown came after a declaration of unilateral independence, same thing happened in both South Ossetia and Abkhazia, both declared unilateral independence and both suffered a Georgian military crackdown (I speak more of Abkhazia than South Ossetia, as it was far more intense). I quote International Crisis Group:

"Significant human rights violations and atrocities were reported on all sides, and peaked in the aftermath of the Abkhaz capture of Sukhumi on September 27, 1993, which was followed by a large-scale campaign of ethnic cleansing against ethnic Georgian population. From 13,000 to 20,000 have been reported to be killed on all sides, more than 250,000 became internally displaced and refugees, and 2,000 are considered missing."

Now tell me, how is this unique? Abkhazia and Kosovo both declare independence, Georgia and Serbia invade them respectively, commit gross human rights abuses respectively, Abkhazia (supported by Russia) and Kosovo (supported by NATO) drive out the Georgians and the Serbs out of the regions, both later commit ethnic cleansing. Now both want to be independent. I quote Regnum:

"Post-Soviet Georgia was heavily affected by the war and suffered considerable financial, human and psychological damage. Abkhazia has been devastated by the war and subsequent continued sporadic conflict. The region, de facto independent from Georgia, suffers huge economic and social problems. Its status remains undetermined, and the region remains heavily dependent on Russia."

And Kosovo is supposedly unique to this region region? Instead of Soviet, put Yugoslav, instead of Georgia, put Serbia, instead of Russia, put UN and instead of Abkhazia, put Kosovo, and would it look in any way different?

EA, if one delves into these sort of things with an open mind, they tend not to believe some American politician who claims Kosovo is a "sui generis" case anymore.

Peggy

I cannot agree with you more!

Olf

Abkhazia will be no more Turkish Cyprus than Kosovo if the UNSC cannot find a consensus. Russia and China will veto Kosovo's independence through UNSC, same as the USA, France and UK will veto Abkhazia's independence.

It is called politics. The Russian move is no less desperate as the US one because both situations are EXACTLY THE SAME. Can you dispute that?

"Kosova is moving towards a new status before the final one. The will of the people will have o be accepted. "

Put Abkhazia instead of Kosova and is it any different?

"Peter, suggest something constructive for majority of the population of Kosova. I would like to listen to that"

I thought I knew but now I don't know anymore. You can't sidestep the UNSC and illegally carve up sovereign states, but on the other hand, you cannot suppress almost two million people who suffered under Serb rule. Truth is, I don't know.

I am only a reflectionist.

John3

No they wouldn't, because like the US, they are too stubborn and too egotistical as superpowers to lose face in the superpower club. This is why you have past and present disasters like Chechnya, Afghanistan, Vietnam, Korea, Balkan wars, Caucasian Wars and Iraq. Who loses out most?

Lert me tell you that; Kosova will not be held hostage for 50000 Russian speaking citizens that live in Abkhazi. Russia does not care for those 50000, just wants to expand its territory.
Kosova and abkhazi have nothing in common. In the end I do not care what goes on in former soviet states, just like Russia should not care what goes on in former Yug states. USSR and Yugo disintegrated once and for all. Done deal guys.

Peter,
Can you see that Russia is looking to Kosova as a bargain point? That is how Russia sees it! Kosova is not for bargain. Kosova has its own history that many Serbs here are trying very hard to forget about it, it is a unique case, it is a European issue and everything has been co-ordinated long long time ago between the USA and Europe. The parallelism here is very wrong because doesn't take into consideration the historical facts, geography and the ethnic cleansing committed by the Serbian State. I am certain that if there was no ethnic cleansing in Kosova we could have talked now about the 95 to 99 percent "substantial autonomy". These are REAL FACTS.

That is just posturing on the part of Russia and they are playing with fire if they go down this road. As far as I am concerned Abkhazia can get independence but if Abkhazia can why not Chechnya?
And it is dishonest to say the least because Russia has been pushing for Abkhazia's independence for a long long time.

Are we going to witness another human catastrophe same as Chechnya just because Ex SFRJ Republic, Serbia, is not prepared to accept loos.
Is there enough support for such a action by the Abkhazia?
US and allies will veto SC decision! Abkhazia will become new T-Cyprus
As for Kosova Russia and Serbia will not recognise but the rest will.
This move by the Russians is the most desperate move up to now.
Kosova is moving towards a new status before the final one. The will of the people will have o be accepted.

Peter, suggest something constructive for majority of the population of Kosova. I would like to listen to that

Peter,
Just a quick not as you seem to be confused. Who is ruling or adminstering Abkhazia today? Who is ruling and adminstering Kosova today? Why? After some cool analisys you will see the differences between to cases.

Jibs

"The "Kosovo precedent" will not take place unless Russia implements it"

So the US illegally recognizing a part of Serbia as an independent state will not set a precedent, but Russia illegally recognizing a part of Georgia in response will set a precedent? Are you joking?

"After that, any potential friendship with Georgia can be forgotten – which would also mean losing the “key to the Caucasus” – Georgia’s sun will never rise from the north again."

I am sure Russian can do without Georgia just fine.

"Even if it does recognize those breakaway regions, what will this mean? A few other countries will follow Russia’s example, and that’s it. This will only make the situation in the Caucasus less stable, as Georgia will not give up its territorial claims one way or another."

Haha, and how does this differ from the Balkans? It is identical! US and a few others recognize Kosovo and threaten to destabilize the Balkans, as Serbia "will not give up its territorial claims one way or the other".

ahmet istufi

What are you talking about? Abkhazia is a population of over two hundred thousand people (of which 45% are ethnic Abkhaz, about 20% Georgian, 20% Armenian, at most 10% Russian and 5% Greek), what 50 000 Russians are you talking about? It's maybe half of that. In any case, Abkhazia is a multi-ethnic region, a vast majority not Russian.

I suggest you go and read about Abkhazia before writing nonsense on here.

Hamid Kari

215 000 is a big "village", bigger than other sovereign "villages" like Liechtenstein, Monaco, San Marino, Andorra and many little islands in the Pacific and Caribbean.

If we go according to your logic, well then what say you to Tibet, which has a population of almost three million or Kurdistan which has a population of almost thirty million? They have also endured massive oppression from their ruling states, or haven't they?

Oh wait, Kosovo is unique!

Richard Z

I understood you perfectly, I just wanted to state that Chechnya is not a similar comparison to Kosovo (well, in most cases it is, but if it were identical, Kosovo would have a pro-Serbia government in power and that would be that).

EA

Well EA, both have their own GOVERNMENTS, the only difference being that Kosovo is under UN ADMINISTRATION, while Abkhazia is under Georgian ADMINISTRATION. If Abkhazia was not in Russia's sphere of influence, it would most probably have been ADMINISTERED by the UN as well.

Fine, one difference, nonetheless, what difference does this one make?

Peter,
"Well EA, both have their own GOVERNMENTS, the only difference being that Kosovo is under UN ADMINISTRATION, while Abkhazia is under Georgian ADMINISTRATION. If Abkhazia was not in Russia's sphere of influence, it would most probably have been ADMINISTERED by the UN as well"
Peter Peter again,
Why is Kosova under UN administration? THAT IS VERY VERY IMPORTANT difference. And to brainstorm you why has NATO come in Kosova on the first place? Was it invited by the Serbian government?

I have a feeling that only Kosova will gain international recognition.

I think of all the msgs/analysis, Jibs' is the most accurate. If Russia wants to make Ossetia and Abkhazia independent, it can do so very easily, since it has "peacekeeper" troops in those regions. Do you think Russian statemen are sitting around the room waiting how the status of Kosova will go, before they can resolve an issue of strategic importance to Russia? They can simply recognize those regions as independent state, and nobody will be able to do anything about it. But as independent states, they are worthless to Russia. Their populations are even less than a section of Prishtina. They worth to Russia is that of a leverage point to Georgia. Georgia is very important as long as Armenia and Azeirbaidjan are at loggerheads, which leaves Georgia as the only safe channel where several pipelines are being built to bring the Caspian Oil into Europe. Russia needs to control the whole of Georgia and have it under its sphere of influence so it can have a monopoly of energy over Europe. And if Russia recognizes SO and Abkhazia, it will aleniate Georgia even further and throw it firmly into NATO and American arms, that will be seen as the only guarantors of Georgian sovereinty in face of Russian hostility. Russia knows this very well, and that's why it will threaten to recognize those territories, but won't actually do so at the end, or if it does will be undermining its own long term interests in the region.

And that's how Kosova is different from SO and Abkhazia. The players' interests are different, which makes the whole situation different. Every conflict is local, it has always been, it will always be.

I agree the U.S. and Russia are only making the situation more complicated. Russia by blocking any resolution and statements like this, and the U.S. by speaking openly about suporting independence.

And indeed if Russia pushes for indepencde for South Ossetia and Abkhazia then Chechnya can become independend as well.

The "Kosovo precedent" will not take place unless Russia implements it - there is a chance that they might recognize both Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Russia, however, would rather not do that at all - as giving independence to the enclaves in the Caucasus cannot mean anything good for Russia itself, who has quite a few of its own hot spots there.

If Russia indeed does what it now threatens to do, then prospects for Russia's influence in the Caucasus will be limited to Abkhazia and South Ossetia. After that, any potential friendship with Georgia can be forgotten – which would also mean losing the “key to the Caucasus” – Georgia’s sun will never rise from the north again.

Even if it does recognize those breakaway regions, what will this mean? A few other countries will follow Russia’s example, and that’s it. This will only make the situation in the Caucasus less stable, as Georgia will not give up its territorial claims one way or another.

Furthermore, will Russia be able to influence "independent" Abkhazia and South Ossetia as much as it does now?

The population size of abhkazia isequal of a village. Not every village can be a state.

Peter if you understood me you would have agreed with me.
I am not talking about the fact wheter it's likely or not that Chechnya becomes independent, or wheter it's a stable state now. Which I very much doubt, you can remove the anti Rusian goverment but that doesn't mean the population is pro Moscow now.
I am talking about the hypocrite stand of Russia. They are referening to regions in other countries, without refering to their own country with regions that also would like to become independend.

FREE KURDISTAN!

Russians are playing like childrens, I think that Georgia should take military offensive in that region and drive out Russian army because they are there ilegally. Russians cannot dictate the will of Kosovars (Kosovo Albanians), Kosovars should declare independence on December 10th and about the next step of Abhkasia we really dont care about that.

What about individuals - can anyone have their self determination recognised by the US ? In which case I guess what will be left of the US to recognise anyone else!

Following the Russian logic, "If birds can fly, so can cows".

Sure, if an animal flies, it demonstrates that it is possible for an animal to fly, but it does not mean that all animals could just spread their limbs and fly away at will.

EA,

I see your point in 'Kosovo is governed by UN'.

But that is exactly the issue! Why no UN/NATO intervention in Taiwan, Tibet or Kurdistan.

You say: Kosovo is unique because there was a NATO intervention there?
Well, then let's have much more NATO interventions. Wait 8 years. And apply the Kosovo solution?

OK? :)

Russia is starting to sound desperate...what's new?

Perhaps, maybe, potentially, who knows, lol, come on. Just say you'll do it if you really mean it.

Abkhazia as far as I am concerned can be Independent.
I think that major power should sit and discuss the changes to international laws. This is not just because of Kosova issue for the for the future 100 years. History has told us that with the time always new states emerge, i.e. Croatia, Montenegro, Serbia, Slovenia, Bosnia and former USSRS republics. International law, that many of Serb posters are in favour, has been violated so many times that now it really has no meaning., Serbia is the one that violated it first.

I think that for the sake of the future stability and prosperity of the Europe we should change something that is man written, law, and suit it to new reality. I don’t believe that any law says that respecting it means violating the human right that are above everything, in the case of Kosova respect of Int. law means violation of the human rights. Kate has every right to think the way she wants but not in any case to violate the human rights, especially the right for self-determination.

Peter, I am bit confused as well, but there is a small chance for compromise and this is the Ahtisaari plan, accepted by most EU except Russia’s hesitation. Unity team of Kosova is really coming up with tempting proposals for EU countries and are prepared to accept everything but any kind of Autonomy. ESDP mission TO Kosova is ready to be deployed and it does not need SC resolution for this. EU countries that accept some kind of independence will contribute to ESDP while countries that favour 1244 i.e. Russia, will be invited to join. This is very tempting offer even for Russia. On the other hand Serbia will get closer to EU doors.

As for Abkhazia, I say that lets forget it. No one stopped Russia form accepting the Independence of Abkhazia earlier. If they really wanted to do that they would have done it.

Apologies for such a long post

what a great county:
“From my diplomatic answer, it is clear in which direction the situation could potentially develop. The recognition of Kosovo will set a precedent for us,”
2M albanians = 20K rusians... great defence of teh international law :)))

Ron,
Let's get Kosova's independent first. Then we can talk about Kurdistan, Tibet and other world's problem. One thing I wanted to say to you that NOT EVERY CONFLICT IN EACH COUNTRY IS THE SAME. We need to look realistically into the history and geography related to any conflict. As you are mentioning Kurdistan quite a lot let me say you something. If people in Iraq where most of the Kurds are concentrated are not asking for indpendence why should we worry at this stage?

EA,

The Kurds in Turkey do want to be indepedent. Still no UN or NATO intervention there?
Strange!?

And what about Taiwan.

No special deal for Kosovo.

Look to Ethiopia and Eritrea... if both sides agree a split can be there. Good luck!

Some more on the topic...
http://blogs.tol.org/conflicts

If Kosovo will be part of Serbia again, will Russia then also stop occupying parts of Moldova and Georgia, withdraw the Russian military and facilitate re-integration of Abchazia and South-Ossetia into Georgia and Trans-Djnestria into Moldavia?

This is the kind of thing that happens when countries like the US and UK try to pick and choose which bits of international law they wish to obey and which bits to ignore. With Serbia's province of Kosovo, they are trying to bend or break international law and that can reignite dormant conflicts elsewhere, as Russia is hinting.

This is exactly what I have been speaking about all along. This isn't the first time Moscow has said they will recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Knowing how Russia dealt with Chechnya, I don't see why they wouldn't recognize these states and cause more turmoil in the Caucasus.

This is why I believe that the US and Russia are acting incredibly irresponsibly, because for them it has nothing to do with the interests of those who want to break away. It is all pure politics.

Are we going to witness another human catastrophe same as Chechnya just because Ex SFRJ Republic, Serbia, is not prepared to accept loos.
Is there enough support for such a action by the Abkhazia?
US and allies will veto SC decision! Abkhazia will become new T-Cyprus
As for Kosova Russia and Serbia will not recognise but the rest will.
This move by the Russians is the most desperate move up to now.
Kosova is moving towards a new status before the final one. The will of the people will have o be accepted.

Peter, suggest something constructive for majority of the population of Kosova. I would like to listen to that

Lert me tell you that; Kosova will not be held hostage for 50000 Russian speaking citizens that live in Abkhazi. Russia does not care for those 50000, just wants to expand its territory.
Kosova and abkhazi have nothing in common. In the end I do not care what goes on in former soviet states, just like Russia should not care what goes on in former Yug states. USSR and Yugo disintegrated once and for all. Done deal guys.

Russia is starting to sound desperate...what's new?

Perhaps, maybe, potentially, who knows, lol, come on. Just say you'll do it if you really mean it.

I have a feeling that only Kosova will gain international recognition.

That is just posturing on the part of Russia and they are playing with fire if they go down this road. As far as I am concerned Abkhazia can get independence but if Abkhazia can why not Chechnya?
And it is dishonest to say the least because Russia has been pushing for Abkhazia's independence for a long long time.

If Kosovo can be independent, then so can Republika Srpska, and so can the North Mitrovica pocket. I don't think the Russians could have been any more clear to the US as to what will happen if they go ahead with their illegal and immoral recognition of
'greater albania'.

The population size of abhkazia isequal of a village. Not every village can be a state.

Peter,
Just a quick not as you seem to be confused. Who is ruling or adminstering Abkhazia today? Who is ruling and adminstering Kosova today? Why? After some cool analisys you will see the differences between to cases.

Peter,
Can you see that Russia is looking to Kosova as a bargain point? That is how Russia sees it! Kosova is not for bargain. Kosova has its own history that many Serbs here are trying very hard to forget about it, it is a unique case, it is a European issue and everything has been co-ordinated long long time ago between the USA and Europe. The parallelism here is very wrong because doesn't take into consideration the historical facts, geography and the ethnic cleansing committed by the Serbian State. I am certain that if there was no ethnic cleansing in Kosova we could have talked now about the 95 to 99 percent "substantial autonomy". These are REAL FACTS.

Russians are playing like childrens, I think that Georgia should take military offensive in that region and drive out Russian army because they are there ilegally. Russians cannot dictate the will of Kosovars (Kosovo Albanians), Kosovars should declare independence on December 10th and about the next step of Abhkasia we really dont care about that.

Yeah, now that i think about,
i always liked those Ossetians wanting to get rid of Georgian tyranny! :)

Furthermore, will Russia be able to influence "independent" Abkhazia and South Ossetia as much as it does now?

EA: "Can you see that Russia is looking to Kosova as a bargain point? That is how Russia sees it! Kosova is not for bargain."

How do you think the US sees it? They too are using it as a bargaining chip.

Richard Z - I agree that Russia and the US are making things more complicated, but disagree that Russia is 'blocking any resolution'.

They are blocking independence of 15% of a sovereign nation being forced through illegally.

The US, UK and others have used their vetoes in the UN far more than Russia. While I am not a natural supporter of Russia, in this case I am.

Why should the US or any other nation be allowed to bypass international law and just decide to cut off part of a country? It's a terrible precedent.

Peter if you understood me you would have agreed with me.
I am not talking about the fact wheter it's likely or not that Chechnya becomes independent, or wheter it's a stable state now. Which I very much doubt, you can remove the anti Rusian goverment but that doesn't mean the population is pro Moscow now.
I am talking about the hypocrite stand of Russia. They are referening to regions in other countries, without refering to their own country with regions that also would like to become independend.

I think of all the msgs/analysis, Jibs' is the most accurate. If Russia wants to make Ossetia and Abkhazia independent, it can do so very easily, since it has "peacekeeper" troops in those regions. Do you think Russian statemen are sitting around the room waiting how the status of Kosova will go, before they can resolve an issue of strategic importance to Russia? They can simply recognize those regions as independent state, and nobody will be able to do anything about it. But as independent states, they are worthless to Russia. Their populations are even less than a section of Prishtina. They worth to Russia is that of a leverage point to Georgia. Georgia is very important as long as Armenia and Azeirbaidjan are at loggerheads, which leaves Georgia as the only safe channel where several pipelines are being built to bring the Caspian Oil into Europe. Russia needs to control the whole of Georgia and have it under its sphere of influence so it can have a monopoly of energy over Europe. And if Russia recognizes SO and Abkhazia, it will aleniate Georgia even further and throw it firmly into NATO and American arms, that will be seen as the only guarantors of Georgian sovereinty in face of Russian hostility. Russia knows this very well, and that's why it will threaten to recognize those territories, but won't actually do so at the end, or if it does will be undermining its own long term interests in the region.

And that's how Kosova is different from SO and Abkhazia. The players' interests are different, which makes the whole situation different. Every conflict is local, it has always been, it will always be.

Abkhazia as far as I am concerned can be Independent.
I think that major power should sit and discuss the changes to international laws. This is not just because of Kosova issue for the for the future 100 years. History has told us that with the time always new states emerge, i.e. Croatia, Montenegro, Serbia, Slovenia, Bosnia and former USSRS republics. International law, that many of Serb posters are in favour, has been violated so many times that now it really has no meaning., Serbia is the one that violated it first.

I think that for the sake of the future stability and prosperity of the Europe we should change something that is man written, law, and suit it to new reality. I don’t believe that any law says that respecting it means violating the human right that are above everything, in the case of Kosova respect of Int. law means violation of the human rights. Kate has every right to think the way she wants but not in any case to violate the human rights, especially the right for self-determination.

Peter, I am bit confused as well, but there is a small chance for compromise and this is the Ahtisaari plan, accepted by most EU except Russia’s hesitation. Unity team of Kosova is really coming up with tempting proposals for EU countries and are prepared to accept everything but any kind of Autonomy. ESDP mission TO Kosova is ready to be deployed and it does not need SC resolution for this. EU countries that accept some kind of independence will contribute to ESDP while countries that favour 1244 i.e. Russia, will be invited to join. This is very tempting offer even for Russia. On the other hand Serbia will get closer to EU doors.

As for Abkhazia, I say that lets forget it. No one stopped Russia form accepting the Independence of Abkhazia earlier. If they really wanted to do that they would have done it.

Apologies for such a long post

Peter,
"Well EA, both have their own GOVERNMENTS, the only difference being that Kosovo is under UN ADMINISTRATION, while Abkhazia is under Georgian ADMINISTRATION. If Abkhazia was not in Russia's sphere of influence, it would most probably have been ADMINISTERED by the UN as well"
Peter Peter again,
Why is Kosova under UN administration? THAT IS VERY VERY IMPORTANT difference. And to brainstorm you why has NATO come in Kosova on the first place? Was it invited by the Serbian government?

Following the Russian logic, "If birds can fly, so can cows".

Sure, if an animal flies, it demonstrates that it is possible for an animal to fly, but it does not mean that all animals could just spread their limbs and fly away at will.

what a great county:
“From my diplomatic answer, it is clear in which direction the situation could potentially develop. The recognition of Kosovo will set a precedent for us,”
2M albanians = 20K rusians... great defence of teh international law :)))

Politics or not Peter, but what's good for the goose is good for the gander.
If the US thinks it can break the law and nobody is going to care they will get a wake up call.
Nobody is above the law, including the US.
I agree with you that we don't want to stir up any more trouble around the world, but how else can Russia get through to the US that they cannot go on bullying the world and deciding who lives and who dies.

Unfortunate as it may be but you have to fight fire with fire sometimes.

Maybe this will alert Europe not to follow American foreign policy so blindly. Just because the US is a democratic country doesn't mean they are just. Justice HAS to be considered instead of profit and control.
Apart from the civil war American people have never had to fight a war on their territory, so they don't know how brutal war it. Europe has had to endure wars for centuries and they should be smarter than that.
Europeans have to stop their governments doing America's dirty work and think about the consequences of doing what is best for America instead of what is best for Europe.
We should stop thinking in terms of following the US or Russia but think in terms of what is best for Europe.

The "Kosovo precedent" will not take place unless Russia implements it - there is a chance that they might recognize both Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Russia, however, would rather not do that at all - as giving independence to the enclaves in the Caucasus cannot mean anything good for Russia itself, who has quite a few of its own hot spots there.

If Russia indeed does what it now threatens to do, then prospects for Russia's influence in the Caucasus will be limited to Abkhazia and South Ossetia. After that, any potential friendship with Georgia can be forgotten – which would also mean losing the “key to the Caucasus” – Georgia’s sun will never rise from the north again.

Even if it does recognize those breakaway regions, what will this mean? A few other countries will follow Russia’s example, and that’s it. This will only make the situation in the Caucasus less stable, as Georgia will not give up its territorial claims one way or another.

FREE KURDISTAN!

Ron,
Let's get Kosova's independent first. Then we can talk about Kurdistan, Tibet and other world's problem. One thing I wanted to say to you that NOT EVERY CONFLICT IN EACH COUNTRY IS THE SAME. We need to look realistically into the history and geography related to any conflict. As you are mentioning Kurdistan quite a lot let me say you something. If people in Iraq where most of the Kurds are concentrated are not asking for indpendence why should we worry at this stage?

I agree the U.S. and Russia are only making the situation more complicated. Russia by blocking any resolution and statements like this, and the U.S. by speaking openly about suporting independence.

And indeed if Russia pushes for indepencde for South Ossetia and Abkhazia then Chechnya can become independend as well.

And indeed if Russia pushes for indepencde for South Ossetia and Abkhazia then Chechnya can become independend as well.
(Richard Z, 25. October 2007 12:33)

No,it can not Richard?And you know why?Cause Russia has like 3.000 nuclear warheads,and country who has that can do what it wants...more or less:-)

teni and Richard Z

Chechnya of today has a pro-Moscow government, and most of the separatist leaders (Aslan Maskhadov and Shamil Basayev) have been killed, so it is generally now a stable region that is undergoing economic recovery. Even the OECD claims that the economy has improved drastically since 2000, so I think Chechnya will not push for independence any more. The Ichkeria government is unpopular and supported only by a few fundamentalists, so there is not even a risk of separatism from Chechnya on the whole. Yeltsin made a horrible mistake with Chechnya, but Putin managed to sort things out, so I don't believe an independent Kosovo or Abkhazia would start a precedent in Chechnya or Dagestan.

EA

"it is a unique case"

How?

The parallelism is absolutely not wrong in terms of:

History (the way Albanian Kosovo was butted onto Serbia after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire is identical to how Abkhazia and South Ossetia were randomly butted onto Georgia by Stalin)

Geography (how is this unique? Georgia is a part of Europe too, hence these two regions are also! What does it matter if one is in the Caucasus and one in the Balkans?)

The ethnic cleansing committed by the Serbian State (fair enough, but remember, the Serbian crackdown came after a declaration of unilateral independence, same thing happened in both South Ossetia and Abkhazia, both declared unilateral independence and both suffered a Georgian military crackdown (I speak more of Abkhazia than South Ossetia, as it was far more intense). I quote International Crisis Group:

"Significant human rights violations and atrocities were reported on all sides, and peaked in the aftermath of the Abkhaz capture of Sukhumi on September 27, 1993, which was followed by a large-scale campaign of ethnic cleansing against ethnic Georgian population. From 13,000 to 20,000 have been reported to be killed on all sides, more than 250,000 became internally displaced and refugees, and 2,000 are considered missing."

Now tell me, how is this unique? Abkhazia and Kosovo both declare independence, Georgia and Serbia invade them respectively, commit gross human rights abuses respectively, Abkhazia (supported by Russia) and Kosovo (supported by NATO) drive out the Georgians and the Serbs out of the regions, both later commit ethnic cleansing. Now both want to be independent. I quote Regnum:

"Post-Soviet Georgia was heavily affected by the war and suffered considerable financial, human and psychological damage. Abkhazia has been devastated by the war and subsequent continued sporadic conflict. The region, de facto independent from Georgia, suffers huge economic and social problems. Its status remains undetermined, and the region remains heavily dependent on Russia."

And Kosovo is supposedly unique to this region region? Instead of Soviet, put Yugoslav, instead of Georgia, put Serbia, instead of Russia, put UN and instead of Abkhazia, put Kosovo, and would it look in any way different?

EA, if one delves into these sort of things with an open mind, they tend not to believe some American politician who claims Kosovo is a "sui generis" case anymore.

Peggy

I cannot agree with you more!

Olf

Abkhazia will be no more Turkish Cyprus than Kosovo if the UNSC cannot find a consensus. Russia and China will veto Kosovo's independence through UNSC, same as the USA, France and UK will veto Abkhazia's independence.

It is called politics. The Russian move is no less desperate as the US one because both situations are EXACTLY THE SAME. Can you dispute that?

"Kosova is moving towards a new status before the final one. The will of the people will have o be accepted. "

Put Abkhazia instead of Kosova and is it any different?

"Peter, suggest something constructive for majority of the population of Kosova. I would like to listen to that"

I thought I knew but now I don't know anymore. You can't sidestep the UNSC and illegally carve up sovereign states, but on the other hand, you cannot suppress almost two million people who suffered under Serb rule. Truth is, I don't know.

I am only a reflectionist.

John3

No they wouldn't, because like the US, they are too stubborn and too egotistical as superpowers to lose face in the superpower club. This is why you have past and present disasters like Chechnya, Afghanistan, Vietnam, Korea, Balkan wars, Caucasian Wars and Iraq. Who loses out most?

Jibs

"The "Kosovo precedent" will not take place unless Russia implements it"

So the US illegally recognizing a part of Serbia as an independent state will not set a precedent, but Russia illegally recognizing a part of Georgia in response will set a precedent? Are you joking?

"After that, any potential friendship with Georgia can be forgotten – which would also mean losing the “key to the Caucasus” – Georgia’s sun will never rise from the north again."

I am sure Russian can do without Georgia just fine.

"Even if it does recognize those breakaway regions, what will this mean? A few other countries will follow Russia’s example, and that’s it. This will only make the situation in the Caucasus less stable, as Georgia will not give up its territorial claims one way or another."

Haha, and how does this differ from the Balkans? It is identical! US and a few others recognize Kosovo and threaten to destabilize the Balkans, as Serbia "will not give up its territorial claims one way or the other".

ahmet istufi

What are you talking about? Abkhazia is a population of over two hundred thousand people (of which 45% are ethnic Abkhaz, about 20% Georgian, 20% Armenian, at most 10% Russian and 5% Greek), what 50 000 Russians are you talking about? It's maybe half of that. In any case, Abkhazia is a multi-ethnic region, a vast majority not Russian.

I suggest you go and read about Abkhazia before writing nonsense on here.

Hamid Kari

215 000 is a big "village", bigger than other sovereign "villages" like Liechtenstein, Monaco, San Marino, Andorra and many little islands in the Pacific and Caribbean.

If we go according to your logic, well then what say you to Tibet, which has a population of almost three million or Kurdistan which has a population of almost thirty million? They have also endured massive oppression from their ruling states, or haven't they?

Oh wait, Kosovo is unique!

Richard Z

I understood you perfectly, I just wanted to state that Chechnya is not a similar comparison to Kosovo (well, in most cases it is, but if it were identical, Kosovo would have a pro-Serbia government in power and that would be that).

EA

Well EA, both have their own GOVERNMENTS, the only difference being that Kosovo is under UN ADMINISTRATION, while Abkhazia is under Georgian ADMINISTRATION. If Abkhazia was not in Russia's sphere of influence, it would most probably have been ADMINISTERED by the UN as well.

Fine, one difference, nonetheless, what difference does this one make?

What about individuals - can anyone have their self determination recognised by the US ? In which case I guess what will be left of the US to recognise anyone else!

EA,

I see your point in 'Kosovo is governed by UN'.

But that is exactly the issue! Why no UN/NATO intervention in Taiwan, Tibet or Kurdistan.

You say: Kosovo is unique because there was a NATO intervention there?
Well, then let's have much more NATO interventions. Wait 8 years. And apply the Kosovo solution?

OK? :)

Some more on the topic...
http://blogs.tol.org/conflicts

EA,

The Kurds in Turkey do want to be indepedent. Still no UN or NATO intervention there?
Strange!?

And what about Taiwan.

No special deal for Kosovo.

Look to Ethiopia and Eritrea... if both sides agree a split can be there. Good luck!