Victor,
Your frequent use of the phrase “all Serbs” is a clear indication of your belief in collective guilt.
Maybe you don’t understand the definition of collective guilt.
As a purported psycho-educator(and I am not quite sure what that is), I would expect you to know the damage that is caused when you encourage individuals to assume responsibility for someone else’s behavior.
Also, I am not Matthew. I am Roger7 and I am, and only me, responsible for my posts on B92 and no one else.
"In essence EU is an endeavour that aims to draw from cooperation and complexity of interdependence. As such it can not restrict access to the club by using the same criteria that it has set herself initially"
Dear Village-Bey, of course you're not wrong about this, but it is only one aspect. 'Realism' and real power interests are always there behind the scenes and have their impact. I stressed "many in the EU" rather than the EU officially. For example, the objection to Turkey has two sides. On one side, there is the very valid objections to the very great restrictions, or even open violations, of human and democratic rights in Turkey, as well as its own role in Cyprus (keeping its troops there), violations of Kurdish righs (though there has been some improvement) etc. On the other, many EU leaders have openly expressed the view that Turkey has no place in a Christian club like the EU. What's more, Turkey is much poorer, with millions of poor peasants, and many EU states do not ant them to have acesss to the EU labour market; or more cyncally, they want them to have access, as they do now, but only as low-paid guest workers, with no rights; if they were in the EU, they would have the same rights to social security etc as do other European workers. And the simple fact is that both Kosova and Albania are much poorer than their neighbours (due to Kosova being a colony of Serbia for decades followed by a decade of limbo, Albania being under Hoxhaism followed by Berisha's 'pyramid' capitalism etc) and I believe the EU will therefore use every excuse to hold up the process. But that's why I also think the Kosovar leadership needs to get smarter politically, and needs to do more solid stuff about what is obviously wrong there, it's not all their fault sure, but they can't evade resposnibility either, and it's nothing to be proud of. And Serbia in the EU first does give it a veto, simple as that. And there is no doubt the EU wants Serbia in fast - take a look at a map of the Balkans to see it is in the centre. Croatia is already ahead of Serbia since turning in Gotovina, and I believe many in the EU did not want Croatia much ahead of Serbia in order to not create tensions. Fact is, if Serbia could find the guts or decency to confront its chauvinisic extreme right and hand in Mladic, it would be in the EU in a flash.
Tim Duc
Great analysis and really and enjoyable read.
One thing that I like to stress though.
Predominantly all our comment come from a realist prospective of international relations and that’s understandable as the states have been the major contributors to our crisis at hand. Namely you can trace all the Balkan wars to Serbia and her adoption of nationalistic agenda. My interpretation of Kosova conflict is that it took place in a two state setting.
It is also true that the wars at least in appearance have been fought for straight and narrow national interest. Everything that you say in this framework stands.
I have to disagree with you on the EU front though.
The design of EU can be explained by a numerous schools of thought but the least believable of these explanations is given by realism.
In essence EU is an endeavour that aims to draw from cooperation and complexity of interdependence. As such it can not restrict access to the club by using the same criteria that it has set herself initially.
If Kosovo can get independence without the consent of UNSC and UNSCR1244 taken into consideration, why can't Serbia join the EU instantly and Copenhagen Criteria bypassed?
You seem to think Serbia should follow international law but Kosovo not? What logic is that?
Jovan, this is of common knowledge that he is a minister; and his visit in France should be permitted only when his country complies fully with the Hague. Until then, he has no affair in France, even though he is Minister of F Affairs...
Victor says today…”tarnished the image of my nation and of all Serbs for that matter.”
On a previous post Victor said... "You know well that no posters on this forum refer to all Serbs as bad and evil. This is a 'free affirmation'. On this forum, we only speak of Serbs who perpetrated horrible crimes, and not about the ordinary Serbs. Most of the Serb readers don't establish this simple difference."
You prove me right again and again Victor. You preach the dangerous thought of collective guilt and because you contradict yourself over and over again, you tarnish your own image on this site.
Blacky’s theory is very interesting. It’s also good to see a relatively civilized level of discussion just here at the moment.
It might even be right, but here’s a couple of snags. Firstly, if the EU is going to take Serbia because, Blacky believes, it has met all the requirements re rule of law, minority rights etc (doubtful, but getting there), which he believes (quite rightly) that Kosova hasn’t yet, then if the EU were to take in Serbia including Kosova as an “autonomous” province, as he suggests, then Serbia would not be meting the requirements until they are all met fully in Kosova as well, thus it would slow down Serbia’s accession.
Secondly, Blacky says that some of the Albanians “will say that they will take that chance”, meaning accepting the kinds of conditions you list that will be imposed on them, such as “you will be required to deal with the return of refugees from Serbia, rebuild destroyed churches” etc. Now what if I suggested that Kosova is already restoring destroyed churches – not fast enough perhaps, with its limited resources, but nevertheless happening, and not something the Albanians object to, and no Kosovar leaders have ever objected to Serb refugees return, they even have a ‘Ministry of Returns’ headed by a Serb. Certainly it has been appallingly slow, but there is no objection.
So when you condescendingly advise Albanians to “put your nationalism and hatred to the side” and stay with Serbia, maybe they are already happy to do that on their own, independently, without being part of the state that recently tried to annihilate them, speaking of “nationalism and hatred”.
But then, that would be problematic for the Albanians, not necessarily because of “nationalism and hatred” as you imagine, but rather because once Serbia is in the EU by itself, without Kosova, then Serbia has veto power, and will find every conceivable objection, real or imaginary, to block Kosova’s entry, virtually until it agrees to becoming a Serbian colon again, in all but name.
That is the danger for the Kosovars. What’s more, I doubt the EU would object too much to Serbian obstruction. The EU, true, has tended to be less enthusiastic about independence than the US, mainly because Serbia is part of Europe and the centre of the Balkans, and they don’t want instability, plus are worried about some other national questions in Europe. However, there is another aspect to this: just as the EU does not want Turkey, I also believe it does not want 5 million Albanians in the EU either, due to good old stuck up European racism and trying to keep the EU a “Christian club” and above all because Albanians are poor. From that point of view many in the EU would prefer Serbia lose Kosova, not to help Kosova, but to accept in Serbs but not Albanians.
Of course that would leave a huge security problem in the Balkans, so the EU would have to promise Kosovar and Albanian membership in the distant future, but be able to hold it off for as long as possible, via the Serbian veto, as they can, meantime trying to inject some money into the place, perhaps.
I don’t say any of this because I want that to be the case, on the contrary, I say it because that is what I think of many of the “oh so civilized” leaders of the EU.
The EU is thus stuck between wanting to placate Serbia and not mess things up with Russia, and thus rejecting full independence, on one hand, and wanting to be able to take in Serbia without for the moment taking in the Albanian population, thus wanting something like the Ahtissari Plan, on the other.
The suggestion by one of the Albanian posters that accepting Kosova independence is one of the conditions for Serbian EU membership is fanciful. The EU heads are being honest when they say membership and Kosova are unrelated, in the same way as the Greek Cypriots were able to reject the Annan Plan for two confederal (Greek and Turkish) states in Cyprus, the UN plan backed by the EU, even though the Turkish Cypriot population were brave enough to vote for it and reject their own extremist leadership, yet still Cyprus was let into the EU, with the part controlled by the Turks effectively left outside, but without any status. And now Cyprus has veto power.
In these circumstances it is understandable for the Albanians to be latching on to the US promise, despite the US role in the world, but I doubt the US promise can mean much, except as a propaganda stunt and a bargaining chip with Putin. Unless that is the Kosovar Albanians get real smart and get really political about this, and begin to really show in practice that they want to do something honestly about the appalling conditions of the minorities and really enhance return and reconciliation, and make it really look like it is something they are doing on their own because they think it’s right, not because some great power is telling them, try to win the propaganda battle with real stuff so that it becomes really very hard for the EU to accept Serbian arguments.
And if this means putting forward your own version of the Annan Plan for Cyprus in Kosova – two confederal states within and independent Kosova – then not only would it be going as far as possible to assuage the minority’s concerns, but it would also be difficult for the EU to say no to a plan that it pushed for in Cyprus. It would be a huge step towards Kosova’s independent membership of the EU, and even Russia would be able to imagine it was her diplomacy that ‘forced’ the Kosovars to give a better deal to the minority.
«Deputy Prime Minister Božidar Đelić hopes Serbia will attain an EU candidate status by the end of 2008. »
There are individuals in this world who are ashamed of nothing. If I were a Serbian minister, I would be shy to talk about a possible candidacy status of my country by the end of 2008... unless Serbia complies to the ICTY and deliver to the Hague all those who have tarnished the image of my nation and of all Serbs for that matter.
The Deputy Prime Minister Božidar Đelić seems to possess a ‘demeasured’ arrogance to address his counterpart on a subject which is out of order in the circumstances.
Blacky,
With your "theory"... What if the rush to allow Serbia in as an EU member isn't some way of solving the Kosovo situation without independence?
EU is not a night club my friend. You didn't sleep well last night coming up with nonsense.
hi blacky i really doubt what you are saying, the EU is in no rush to get Serbia in. I think this is just a carrot tossed out so Belgrade's politicians will be focused on that "achievement" than independence.
For all the talk from Serbia's politicians about there being no compromise over Kosovo for EU membership, i simply do not believe them.
I think they will sacrifice Kosovo for a guarantee of EU membership in the very near future - that being the key - VERY NEAR future.
they are probably gauging the Serbian populations possible reaction to independence at the moment alongside against wha tthey think they can obtain from the Russians if they stick to their line and try to keep Kosovo.
There is a fine balance to be struck here. There is no doubt that a great amount of effort is gone into handling Serbia with care. Kosova is extensively discussed at the top level diplomacy and to be fair this sort of attention is quite disproportionate to the specific weight of this small and undeveloped corner of southeast Europe.
In a European context, and I agree this is primarily an European matter excluding Russia, this acquires further significance as it remains an unresolved security matter and directly stands in the way of a EU expansion plans.
The main issue here is how to deal with Serbia and there are in my opinion a combination of two factors that make this matter essential topic of concern.
One is that despite her appalling reputation Serbia is yet significant internationally.
Secondly that she is still wrapt up in a nationalistic fever, yet immature democratically, reasons that make her act as a irresponsible child whom you should handle with care.
At the other side of the spectrum Europe cannot look towards the Albanians for more than Ahhtisaari’s Plan as it would be betraying its own core values and everything else that she stands for.
Even if it tried Albanians are highly mobilised and motivated and their will would be hard to ignore. Their determination equals that to any national-social movement and maybe even more. One of the few parallels comparisons of our modern time would be that with Solidarnos movement in Poland.
Thus Europe is engaged in an great illusion act aimed primarily at Serbia. The magical trick will be to convince Serbia that she is not the great looser after all. It might offer Serbia a package that it would be hard to refuse or it might play it cool after a unilateral declaration of independence by giving assurances to Kosovars for a gradual international recognition.
The only thing that remains a pretty safe bet in here is that Kosova will get her independence pretty soon. The rest is anybody’s guess.
Serbia should be fully aware that there are no shortcuts to join the EU. The standards are there for each country which have aspiration to join EU. For Serbia, handover of all war criminals, fighting crime and corruption, reform of all institutions, good relationships with its neighbours, full respect with its minority rights and compliance with the European convention on Human Rights, accepting the sovereignity of the Republic of Kosova. If Serbian doesn't like this package then it would be quite easier to join the Russian Federation.
I have a theory... What if the rush to allow Serbia in as an EU member isn't some way of solving the Kosovo situation without independence?
Think about it... Serbia enters the EU. Would the push for independence in Kosovo be as strong if the EU tells the Kosovars "Look, you will require years and years before you become a candidate? And not only that, but you will be required to deal with the return of refugees from Serbia, rebuild destroyed churches, and make more deals with Serbs that weren't in the original agreement."
(Please let's not be naive and think that won't happen. Simply look at Bosnia to see how the Dayton agreement has changed dramatically over the past few years in order to bring that nation closer to EU status. All at the expense of those who wanted nothing to do with their minorities)
So would the push for independence be as strong? I recently read an article in which the Albanians were applying for Serbian passports. Strange, huh? But not really since those who were doing so said that they had to in order to enjoy a better life.
So let's continue and see what the alternatives would be... either stay within Serbia as an autonomous province with substantial freedom and EU membership privileges; or you go for independence, without a UN vote, very little investment, isolation from Serbia, possibly Montenegro (in order to stay friendly with Serbia) and absolutely no domestic product you could live off of. Those mines you seem to think will change Kosovo into a rich country will mostly be in the north and will suffer directly from the lack of UN recognition. Don't expect those mines to go into full operation when the status of Kosovo is in question and the Nothern half is under Serbian control.
So what you end up with is a state that would be dirt poor and totally isolated from all of Europe.
Or, you have EU membership.
Some of the Albanians on here will say that they will take that chance, but seriously now, put your nationalism and hatred to the side and think about it. In the end, people will care more about Visas, EU perks, and a better life. In the end, the people of Kosovo will have a choice and many will soon change their tune. If Serbia could go from being very nationalistic during the 1990s to being more moderate and EU friendly, then the same will happen to the Albanians.
Eventually the West will be able to get one of their moderates into Pristina, like they did with Serbia and Djindjic or Ukraine or countless other nations. And this moderate will eventually tell the people "It's either the EU (with) Serbia, or independence and years of poverty and isolation."
Perhaps the rush for EU membership is a way of killing two birds with one stone. Give the Serbs an incentive to stay democratic by rewarding them, and solve the Kosovo problem by including them in any EU membership Serbia gets.
I think this could be the solution that will work. I wonder if others agree.
I have a theory... What if the rush to allow Serbia in as an EU member isn't some way of solving the Kosovo situation without independence?
Think about it... Serbia enters the EU. Would the push for independence in Kosovo be as strong if the EU tells the Kosovars "Look, you will require years and years before you become a candidate? And not only that, but you will be required to deal with the return of refugees from Serbia, rebuild destroyed churches, and make more deals with Serbs that weren't in the original agreement."
(Please let's not be naive and think that won't happen. Simply look at Bosnia to see how the Dayton agreement has changed dramatically over the past few years in order to bring that nation closer to EU status. All at the expense of those who wanted nothing to do with their minorities)
So would the push for independence be as strong? I recently read an article in which the Albanians were applying for Serbian passports. Strange, huh? But not really since those who were doing so said that they had to in order to enjoy a better life.
So let's continue and see what the alternatives would be... either stay within Serbia as an autonomous province with substantial freedom and EU membership privileges; or you go for independence, without a UN vote, very little investment, isolation from Serbia, possibly Montenegro (in order to stay friendly with Serbia) and absolutely no domestic product you could live off of. Those mines you seem to think will change Kosovo into a rich country will mostly be in the north and will suffer directly from the lack of UN recognition. Don't expect those mines to go into full operation when the status of Kosovo is in question and the Nothern half is under Serbian control.
So what you end up with is a state that would be dirt poor and totally isolated from all of Europe.
Or, you have EU membership.
Some of the Albanians on here will say that they will take that chance, but seriously now, put your nationalism and hatred to the side and think about it. In the end, people will care more about Visas, EU perks, and a better life. In the end, the people of Kosovo will have a choice and many will soon change their tune. If Serbia could go from being very nationalistic during the 1990s to being more moderate and EU friendly, then the same will happen to the Albanians.
Eventually the West will be able to get one of their moderates into Pristina, like they did with Serbia and Djindjic or Ukraine or countless other nations. And this moderate will eventually tell the people "It's either the EU (with) Serbia, or independence and years of poverty and isolation."
Perhaps the rush for EU membership is a way of killing two birds with one stone. Give the Serbs an incentive to stay democratic by rewarding them, and solve the Kosovo problem by including them in any EU membership Serbia gets.
I think this could be the solution that will work. I wonder if others agree.
Serbia should be fully aware that there are no shortcuts to join the EU. The standards are there for each country which have aspiration to join EU. For Serbia, handover of all war criminals, fighting crime and corruption, reform of all institutions, good relationships with its neighbours, full respect with its minority rights and compliance with the European convention on Human Rights, accepting the sovereignity of the Republic of Kosova. If Serbian doesn't like this package then it would be quite easier to join the Russian Federation.
«Deputy Prime Minister Božidar Đelić hopes Serbia will attain an EU candidate status by the end of 2008. »
There are individuals in this world who are ashamed of nothing. If I were a Serbian minister, I would be shy to talk about a possible candidacy status of my country by the end of 2008... unless Serbia complies to the ICTY and deliver to the Hague all those who have tarnished the image of my nation and of all Serbs for that matter.
The Deputy Prime Minister Božidar Đelić seems to possess a ‘demeasured’ arrogance to address his counterpart on a subject which is out of order in the circumstances.
Victor says today…”tarnished the image of my nation and of all Serbs for that matter.”
On a previous post Victor said... "You know well that no posters on this forum refer to all Serbs as bad and evil. This is a 'free affirmation'. On this forum, we only speak of Serbs who perpetrated horrible crimes, and not about the ordinary Serbs. Most of the Serb readers don't establish this simple difference."
You prove me right again and again Victor. You preach the dangerous thought of collective guilt and because you contradict yourself over and over again, you tarnish your own image on this site.
If Kosovo can get independence without the consent of UNSC and UNSCR1244 taken into consideration, why can't Serbia join the EU instantly and Copenhagen Criteria bypassed?
You seem to think Serbia should follow international law but Kosovo not? What logic is that?
There is a fine balance to be struck here. There is no doubt that a great amount of effort is gone into handling Serbia with care. Kosova is extensively discussed at the top level diplomacy and to be fair this sort of attention is quite disproportionate to the specific weight of this small and undeveloped corner of southeast Europe.
In a European context, and I agree this is primarily an European matter excluding Russia, this acquires further significance as it remains an unresolved security matter and directly stands in the way of a EU expansion plans.
The main issue here is how to deal with Serbia and there are in my opinion a combination of two factors that make this matter essential topic of concern.
One is that despite her appalling reputation Serbia is yet significant internationally.
Secondly that she is still wrapt up in a nationalistic fever, yet immature democratically, reasons that make her act as a irresponsible child whom you should handle with care.
At the other side of the spectrum Europe cannot look towards the Albanians for more than Ahhtisaari’s Plan as it would be betraying its own core values and everything else that she stands for.
Even if it tried Albanians are highly mobilised and motivated and their will would be hard to ignore. Their determination equals that to any national-social movement and maybe even more. One of the few parallels comparisons of our modern time would be that with Solidarnos movement in Poland.
Thus Europe is engaged in an great illusion act aimed primarily at Serbia. The magical trick will be to convince Serbia that she is not the great looser after all. It might offer Serbia a package that it would be hard to refuse or it might play it cool after a unilateral declaration of independence by giving assurances to Kosovars for a gradual international recognition.
The only thing that remains a pretty safe bet in here is that Kosova will get her independence pretty soon. The rest is anybody’s guess.
For all the talk from Serbia's politicians about there being no compromise over Kosovo for EU membership, i simply do not believe them.
I think they will sacrifice Kosovo for a guarantee of EU membership in the very near future - that being the key - VERY NEAR future.
they are probably gauging the Serbian populations possible reaction to independence at the moment alongside against wha tthey think they can obtain from the Russians if they stick to their line and try to keep Kosovo.
Blacky,
With your "theory"... What if the rush to allow Serbia in as an EU member isn't some way of solving the Kosovo situation without independence?
EU is not a night club my friend. You didn't sleep well last night coming up with nonsense.
Jovan, this is of common knowledge that he is a minister; and his visit in France should be permitted only when his country complies fully with the Hague. Until then, he has no affair in France, even though he is Minister of F Affairs...
Victor,
Your frequent use of the phrase “all Serbs” is a clear indication of your belief in collective guilt.
Maybe you don’t understand the definition of collective guilt.
As a purported psycho-educator(and I am not quite sure what that is), I would expect you to know the damage that is caused when you encourage individuals to assume responsibility for someone else’s behavior.
Also, I am not Matthew. I am Roger7 and I am, and only me, responsible for my posts on B92 and no one else.
hi blacky i really doubt what you are saying, the EU is in no rush to get Serbia in. I think this is just a carrot tossed out so Belgrade's politicians will be focused on that "achievement" than independence.
Blacky’s theory is very interesting. It’s also good to see a relatively civilized level of discussion just here at the moment.
It might even be right, but here’s a couple of snags. Firstly, if the EU is going to take Serbia because, Blacky believes, it has met all the requirements re rule of law, minority rights etc (doubtful, but getting there), which he believes (quite rightly) that Kosova hasn’t yet, then if the EU were to take in Serbia including Kosova as an “autonomous” province, as he suggests, then Serbia would not be meting the requirements until they are all met fully in Kosova as well, thus it would slow down Serbia’s accession.
Secondly, Blacky says that some of the Albanians “will say that they will take that chance”, meaning accepting the kinds of conditions you list that will be imposed on them, such as “you will be required to deal with the return of refugees from Serbia, rebuild destroyed churches” etc. Now what if I suggested that Kosova is already restoring destroyed churches – not fast enough perhaps, with its limited resources, but nevertheless happening, and not something the Albanians object to, and no Kosovar leaders have ever objected to Serb refugees return, they even have a ‘Ministry of Returns’ headed by a Serb. Certainly it has been appallingly slow, but there is no objection.
So when you condescendingly advise Albanians to “put your nationalism and hatred to the side” and stay with Serbia, maybe they are already happy to do that on their own, independently, without being part of the state that recently tried to annihilate them, speaking of “nationalism and hatred”.
But then, that would be problematic for the Albanians, not necessarily because of “nationalism and hatred” as you imagine, but rather because once Serbia is in the EU by itself, without Kosova, then Serbia has veto power, and will find every conceivable objection, real or imaginary, to block Kosova’s entry, virtually until it agrees to becoming a Serbian colon again, in all but name.
That is the danger for the Kosovars. What’s more, I doubt the EU would object too much to Serbian obstruction. The EU, true, has tended to be less enthusiastic about independence than the US, mainly because Serbia is part of Europe and the centre of the Balkans, and they don’t want instability, plus are worried about some other national questions in Europe. However, there is another aspect to this: just as the EU does not want Turkey, I also believe it does not want 5 million Albanians in the EU either, due to good old stuck up European racism and trying to keep the EU a “Christian club” and above all because Albanians are poor. From that point of view many in the EU would prefer Serbia lose Kosova, not to help Kosova, but to accept in Serbs but not Albanians.
Of course that would leave a huge security problem in the Balkans, so the EU would have to promise Kosovar and Albanian membership in the distant future, but be able to hold it off for as long as possible, via the Serbian veto, as they can, meantime trying to inject some money into the place, perhaps.
I don’t say any of this because I want that to be the case, on the contrary, I say it because that is what I think of many of the “oh so civilized” leaders of the EU.
The EU is thus stuck between wanting to placate Serbia and not mess things up with Russia, and thus rejecting full independence, on one hand, and wanting to be able to take in Serbia without for the moment taking in the Albanian population, thus wanting something like the Ahtissari Plan, on the other.
The suggestion by one of the Albanian posters that accepting Kosova independence is one of the conditions for Serbian EU membership is fanciful. The EU heads are being honest when they say membership and Kosova are unrelated, in the same way as the Greek Cypriots were able to reject the Annan Plan for two confederal (Greek and Turkish) states in Cyprus, the UN plan backed by the EU, even though the Turkish Cypriot population were brave enough to vote for it and reject their own extremist leadership, yet still Cyprus was let into the EU, with the part controlled by the Turks effectively left outside, but without any status. And now Cyprus has veto power.
In these circumstances it is understandable for the Albanians to be latching on to the US promise, despite the US role in the world, but I doubt the US promise can mean much, except as a propaganda stunt and a bargaining chip with Putin. Unless that is the Kosovar Albanians get real smart and get really political about this, and begin to really show in practice that they want to do something honestly about the appalling conditions of the minorities and really enhance return and reconciliation, and make it really look like it is something they are doing on their own because they think it’s right, not because some great power is telling them, try to win the propaganda battle with real stuff so that it becomes really very hard for the EU to accept Serbian arguments.
And if this means putting forward your own version of the Annan Plan for Cyprus in Kosova – two confederal states within and independent Kosova – then not only would it be going as far as possible to assuage the minority’s concerns, but it would also be difficult for the EU to say no to a plan that it pushed for in Cyprus. It would be a huge step towards Kosova’s independent membership of the EU, and even Russia would be able to imagine it was her diplomacy that ‘forced’ the Kosovars to give a better deal to the minority.
Tim Duc
Great analysis and really and enjoyable read.
One thing that I like to stress though.
Predominantly all our comment come from a realist prospective of international relations and that’s understandable as the states have been the major contributors to our crisis at hand. Namely you can trace all the Balkan wars to Serbia and her adoption of nationalistic agenda. My interpretation of Kosova conflict is that it took place in a two state setting.
It is also true that the wars at least in appearance have been fought for straight and narrow national interest. Everything that you say in this framework stands.
I have to disagree with you on the EU front though.
The design of EU can be explained by a numerous schools of thought but the least believable of these explanations is given by realism.
In essence EU is an endeavour that aims to draw from cooperation and complexity of interdependence. As such it can not restrict access to the club by using the same criteria that it has set herself initially.
"In essence EU is an endeavour that aims to draw from cooperation and complexity of interdependence. As such it can not restrict access to the club by using the same criteria that it has set herself initially"
Dear Village-Bey, of course you're not wrong about this, but it is only one aspect. 'Realism' and real power interests are always there behind the scenes and have their impact. I stressed "many in the EU" rather than the EU officially. For example, the objection to Turkey has two sides. On one side, there is the very valid objections to the very great restrictions, or even open violations, of human and democratic rights in Turkey, as well as its own role in Cyprus (keeping its troops there), violations of Kurdish righs (though there has been some improvement) etc. On the other, many EU leaders have openly expressed the view that Turkey has no place in a Christian club like the EU. What's more, Turkey is much poorer, with millions of poor peasants, and many EU states do not ant them to have acesss to the EU labour market; or more cyncally, they want them to have access, as they do now, but only as low-paid guest workers, with no rights; if they were in the EU, they would have the same rights to social security etc as do other European workers. And the simple fact is that both Kosova and Albania are much poorer than their neighbours (due to Kosova being a colony of Serbia for decades followed by a decade of limbo, Albania being under Hoxhaism followed by Berisha's 'pyramid' capitalism etc) and I believe the EU will therefore use every excuse to hold up the process. But that's why I also think the Kosovar leadership needs to get smarter politically, and needs to do more solid stuff about what is obviously wrong there, it's not all their fault sure, but they can't evade resposnibility either, and it's nothing to be proud of. And Serbia in the EU first does give it a veto, simple as that. And there is no doubt the EU wants Serbia in fast - take a look at a map of the Balkans to see it is in the centre. Croatia is already ahead of Serbia since turning in Gotovina, and I believe many in the EU did not want Croatia much ahead of Serbia in order to not create tensions. Fact is, if Serbia could find the guts or decency to confront its chauvinisic extreme right and hand in Mladic, it would be in the EU in a flash.
Serbia should be fully aware that there are no shortcuts to join the EU. The standards are there for each country which have aspiration to join EU. For Serbia, handover of all war criminals, fighting crime and corruption, reform of all institutions, good relationships with its neighbours, full respect with its minority rights and compliance with the European convention on Human Rights, accepting the sovereignity of the Republic of Kosova. If Serbian doesn't like this package then it would be quite easier to join the Russian Federation.
There is a fine balance to be struck here. There is no doubt that a great amount of effort is gone into handling Serbia with care. Kosova is extensively discussed at the top level diplomacy and to be fair this sort of attention is quite disproportionate to the specific weight of this small and undeveloped corner of southeast Europe.
In a European context, and I agree this is primarily an European matter excluding Russia, this acquires further significance as it remains an unresolved security matter and directly stands in the way of a EU expansion plans.
The main issue here is how to deal with Serbia and there are in my opinion a combination of two factors that make this matter essential topic of concern.
One is that despite her appalling reputation Serbia is yet significant internationally.
Secondly that she is still wrapt up in a nationalistic fever, yet immature democratically, reasons that make her act as a irresponsible child whom you should handle with care.
At the other side of the spectrum Europe cannot look towards the Albanians for more than Ahhtisaari’s Plan as it would be betraying its own core values and everything else that she stands for.
Even if it tried Albanians are highly mobilised and motivated and their will would be hard to ignore. Their determination equals that to any national-social movement and maybe even more. One of the few parallels comparisons of our modern time would be that with Solidarnos movement in Poland.
Thus Europe is engaged in an great illusion act aimed primarily at Serbia. The magical trick will be to convince Serbia that she is not the great looser after all. It might offer Serbia a package that it would be hard to refuse or it might play it cool after a unilateral declaration of independence by giving assurances to Kosovars for a gradual international recognition.
The only thing that remains a pretty safe bet in here is that Kosova will get her independence pretty soon. The rest is anybody’s guess.
«Deputy Prime Minister Božidar Đelić hopes Serbia will attain an EU candidate status by the end of 2008. »
There are individuals in this world who are ashamed of nothing. If I were a Serbian minister, I would be shy to talk about a possible candidacy status of my country by the end of 2008... unless Serbia complies to the ICTY and deliver to the Hague all those who have tarnished the image of my nation and of all Serbs for that matter.
The Deputy Prime Minister Božidar Đelić seems to possess a ‘demeasured’ arrogance to address his counterpart on a subject which is out of order in the circumstances.
Jovan, this is of common knowledge that he is a minister; and his visit in France should be permitted only when his country complies fully with the Hague. Until then, he has no affair in France, even though he is Minister of F Affairs...
I have a theory... What if the rush to allow Serbia in as an EU member isn't some way of solving the Kosovo situation without independence?
Think about it... Serbia enters the EU. Would the push for independence in Kosovo be as strong if the EU tells the Kosovars "Look, you will require years and years before you become a candidate? And not only that, but you will be required to deal with the return of refugees from Serbia, rebuild destroyed churches, and make more deals with Serbs that weren't in the original agreement."
(Please let's not be naive and think that won't happen. Simply look at Bosnia to see how the Dayton agreement has changed dramatically over the past few years in order to bring that nation closer to EU status. All at the expense of those who wanted nothing to do with their minorities)
So would the push for independence be as strong? I recently read an article in which the Albanians were applying for Serbian passports. Strange, huh? But not really since those who were doing so said that they had to in order to enjoy a better life.
So let's continue and see what the alternatives would be... either stay within Serbia as an autonomous province with substantial freedom and EU membership privileges; or you go for independence, without a UN vote, very little investment, isolation from Serbia, possibly Montenegro (in order to stay friendly with Serbia) and absolutely no domestic product you could live off of. Those mines you seem to think will change Kosovo into a rich country will mostly be in the north and will suffer directly from the lack of UN recognition. Don't expect those mines to go into full operation when the status of Kosovo is in question and the Nothern half is under Serbian control.
So what you end up with is a state that would be dirt poor and totally isolated from all of Europe.
Or, you have EU membership.
Some of the Albanians on here will say that they will take that chance, but seriously now, put your nationalism and hatred to the side and think about it. In the end, people will care more about Visas, EU perks, and a better life. In the end, the people of Kosovo will have a choice and many will soon change their tune. If Serbia could go from being very nationalistic during the 1990s to being more moderate and EU friendly, then the same will happen to the Albanians.
Eventually the West will be able to get one of their moderates into Pristina, like they did with Serbia and Djindjic or Ukraine or countless other nations. And this moderate will eventually tell the people "It's either the EU (with) Serbia, or independence and years of poverty and isolation."
Perhaps the rush for EU membership is a way of killing two birds with one stone. Give the Serbs an incentive to stay democratic by rewarding them, and solve the Kosovo problem by including them in any EU membership Serbia gets.
I think this could be the solution that will work. I wonder if others agree.
hi blacky i really doubt what you are saying, the EU is in no rush to get Serbia in. I think this is just a carrot tossed out so Belgrade's politicians will be focused on that "achievement" than independence.
For all the talk from Serbia's politicians about there being no compromise over Kosovo for EU membership, i simply do not believe them.
I think they will sacrifice Kosovo for a guarantee of EU membership in the very near future - that being the key - VERY NEAR future.
they are probably gauging the Serbian populations possible reaction to independence at the moment alongside against wha tthey think they can obtain from the Russians if they stick to their line and try to keep Kosovo.
Blacky,
With your "theory"... What if the rush to allow Serbia in as an EU member isn't some way of solving the Kosovo situation without independence?
EU is not a night club my friend. You didn't sleep well last night coming up with nonsense.
Tim Duc
Great analysis and really and enjoyable read.
One thing that I like to stress though.
Predominantly all our comment come from a realist prospective of international relations and that’s understandable as the states have been the major contributors to our crisis at hand. Namely you can trace all the Balkan wars to Serbia and her adoption of nationalistic agenda. My interpretation of Kosova conflict is that it took place in a two state setting.
It is also true that the wars at least in appearance have been fought for straight and narrow national interest. Everything that you say in this framework stands.
I have to disagree with you on the EU front though.
The design of EU can be explained by a numerous schools of thought but the least believable of these explanations is given by realism.
In essence EU is an endeavour that aims to draw from cooperation and complexity of interdependence. As such it can not restrict access to the club by using the same criteria that it has set herself initially.
Victor says today…”tarnished the image of my nation and of all Serbs for that matter.”
On a previous post Victor said... "You know well that no posters on this forum refer to all Serbs as bad and evil. This is a 'free affirmation'. On this forum, we only speak of Serbs who perpetrated horrible crimes, and not about the ordinary Serbs. Most of the Serb readers don't establish this simple difference."
You prove me right again and again Victor. You preach the dangerous thought of collective guilt and because you contradict yourself over and over again, you tarnish your own image on this site.
If Kosovo can get independence without the consent of UNSC and UNSCR1244 taken into consideration, why can't Serbia join the EU instantly and Copenhagen Criteria bypassed?
You seem to think Serbia should follow international law but Kosovo not? What logic is that?
Blacky’s theory is very interesting. It’s also good to see a relatively civilized level of discussion just here at the moment.
It might even be right, but here’s a couple of snags. Firstly, if the EU is going to take Serbia because, Blacky believes, it has met all the requirements re rule of law, minority rights etc (doubtful, but getting there), which he believes (quite rightly) that Kosova hasn’t yet, then if the EU were to take in Serbia including Kosova as an “autonomous” province, as he suggests, then Serbia would not be meting the requirements until they are all met fully in Kosova as well, thus it would slow down Serbia’s accession.
Secondly, Blacky says that some of the Albanians “will say that they will take that chance”, meaning accepting the kinds of conditions you list that will be imposed on them, such as “you will be required to deal with the return of refugees from Serbia, rebuild destroyed churches” etc. Now what if I suggested that Kosova is already restoring destroyed churches – not fast enough perhaps, with its limited resources, but nevertheless happening, and not something the Albanians object to, and no Kosovar leaders have ever objected to Serb refugees return, they even have a ‘Ministry of Returns’ headed by a Serb. Certainly it has been appallingly slow, but there is no objection.
So when you condescendingly advise Albanians to “put your nationalism and hatred to the side” and stay with Serbia, maybe they are already happy to do that on their own, independently, without being part of the state that recently tried to annihilate them, speaking of “nationalism and hatred”.
But then, that would be problematic for the Albanians, not necessarily because of “nationalism and hatred” as you imagine, but rather because once Serbia is in the EU by itself, without Kosova, then Serbia has veto power, and will find every conceivable objection, real or imaginary, to block Kosova’s entry, virtually until it agrees to becoming a Serbian colon again, in all but name.
That is the danger for the Kosovars. What’s more, I doubt the EU would object too much to Serbian obstruction. The EU, true, has tended to be less enthusiastic about independence than the US, mainly because Serbia is part of Europe and the centre of the Balkans, and they don’t want instability, plus are worried about some other national questions in Europe. However, there is another aspect to this: just as the EU does not want Turkey, I also believe it does not want 5 million Albanians in the EU either, due to good old stuck up European racism and trying to keep the EU a “Christian club” and above all because Albanians are poor. From that point of view many in the EU would prefer Serbia lose Kosova, not to help Kosova, but to accept in Serbs but not Albanians.
Of course that would leave a huge security problem in the Balkans, so the EU would have to promise Kosovar and Albanian membership in the distant future, but be able to hold it off for as long as possible, via the Serbian veto, as they can, meantime trying to inject some money into the place, perhaps.
I don’t say any of this because I want that to be the case, on the contrary, I say it because that is what I think of many of the “oh so civilized” leaders of the EU.
The EU is thus stuck between wanting to placate Serbia and not mess things up with Russia, and thus rejecting full independence, on one hand, and wanting to be able to take in Serbia without for the moment taking in the Albanian population, thus wanting something like the Ahtissari Plan, on the other.
The suggestion by one of the Albanian posters that accepting Kosova independence is one of the conditions for Serbian EU membership is fanciful. The EU heads are being honest when they say membership and Kosova are unrelated, in the same way as the Greek Cypriots were able to reject the Annan Plan for two confederal (Greek and Turkish) states in Cyprus, the UN plan backed by the EU, even though the Turkish Cypriot population were brave enough to vote for it and reject their own extremist leadership, yet still Cyprus was let into the EU, with the part controlled by the Turks effectively left outside, but without any status. And now Cyprus has veto power.
In these circumstances it is understandable for the Albanians to be latching on to the US promise, despite the US role in the world, but I doubt the US promise can mean much, except as a propaganda stunt and a bargaining chip with Putin. Unless that is the Kosovar Albanians get real smart and get really political about this, and begin to really show in practice that they want to do something honestly about the appalling conditions of the minorities and really enhance return and reconciliation, and make it really look like it is something they are doing on their own because they think it’s right, not because some great power is telling them, try to win the propaganda battle with real stuff so that it becomes really very hard for the EU to accept Serbian arguments.
And if this means putting forward your own version of the Annan Plan for Cyprus in Kosova – two confederal states within and independent Kosova – then not only would it be going as far as possible to assuage the minority’s concerns, but it would also be difficult for the EU to say no to a plan that it pushed for in Cyprus. It would be a huge step towards Kosova’s independent membership of the EU, and even Russia would be able to imagine it was her diplomacy that ‘forced’ the Kosovars to give a better deal to the minority.
"In essence EU is an endeavour that aims to draw from cooperation and complexity of interdependence. As such it can not restrict access to the club by using the same criteria that it has set herself initially"
Dear Village-Bey, of course you're not wrong about this, but it is only one aspect. 'Realism' and real power interests are always there behind the scenes and have their impact. I stressed "many in the EU" rather than the EU officially. For example, the objection to Turkey has two sides. On one side, there is the very valid objections to the very great restrictions, or even open violations, of human and democratic rights in Turkey, as well as its own role in Cyprus (keeping its troops there), violations of Kurdish righs (though there has been some improvement) etc. On the other, many EU leaders have openly expressed the view that Turkey has no place in a Christian club like the EU. What's more, Turkey is much poorer, with millions of poor peasants, and many EU states do not ant them to have acesss to the EU labour market; or more cyncally, they want them to have access, as they do now, but only as low-paid guest workers, with no rights; if they were in the EU, they would have the same rights to social security etc as do other European workers. And the simple fact is that both Kosova and Albania are much poorer than their neighbours (due to Kosova being a colony of Serbia for decades followed by a decade of limbo, Albania being under Hoxhaism followed by Berisha's 'pyramid' capitalism etc) and I believe the EU will therefore use every excuse to hold up the process. But that's why I also think the Kosovar leadership needs to get smarter politically, and needs to do more solid stuff about what is obviously wrong there, it's not all their fault sure, but they can't evade resposnibility either, and it's nothing to be proud of. And Serbia in the EU first does give it a veto, simple as that. And there is no doubt the EU wants Serbia in fast - take a look at a map of the Balkans to see it is in the centre. Croatia is already ahead of Serbia since turning in Gotovina, and I believe many in the EU did not want Croatia much ahead of Serbia in order to not create tensions. Fact is, if Serbia could find the guts or decency to confront its chauvinisic extreme right and hand in Mladic, it would be in the EU in a flash.
Victor,
Your frequent use of the phrase “all Serbs” is a clear indication of your belief in collective guilt.
Maybe you don’t understand the definition of collective guilt.
As a purported psycho-educator(and I am not quite sure what that is), I would expect you to know the damage that is caused when you encourage individuals to assume responsibility for someone else’s behavior.
Also, I am not Matthew. I am Roger7 and I am, and only me, responsible for my posts on B92 and no one else.
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