T Wassberg
pre 16 godina
In order to assess the likely outcome of the Kosovo talks, it is good to ask the question: Who has most to loose from a unilateral declaration of independence? The answer is that it is not Serbia - it is the EU. Take a country like Spain. Unilateral recognition of Kosovo will greatly encourage Basque separatism. The ETA will want to emulate the successful tactics of the KLA. Kosovo independence means that more Spanish policemen, more Spanish politicians will be killed. One does not have to be a rocket scientist to realise that the Spanish government will never risk such a development. Spain will never recognise Kosovo outside the boundaries of international law, outside a new UNSC resolution. The same goes for a host of other EU countries. This means that unilateral independence will unavoidibly split the EU and create great havoc within it - the European Union will become the European Disunion. Not even a politician like Kouchner wants to wreck the EU for the sake of K-Albanians. A new UNSC resolution is a sine qua non for EU unity. If in this situation, the US recognises Kosovo's independence unilaterally, they will create huge problems for Europe, which will severely damage the transatlantic relationship. Although one should not underestimate the irrationality of the current US administration, there are hopefully someone there that realises that the transatlantic relationship is more important for the US than is Kosovo independence. Now, Ischinger is a highly skilled diplomat who is acutely aware of these things. He will make sure that when the time comes in December, the Contact Group will put forth a document that will be able to pass in the UNSC - that is, a document that does not cross any red lines for Serbia.
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