Frozen conflicts

I can just picture Vladimir Putin grinning ear to ear, daring the US to unilaterally recognize greater albania. Kind of like Clint Eastwood - "go ahead, make my day". This really would make his day. It would give Russia the excuse it needs to take back Russian populated parts of the former Soviet Union. It would also give him the excuse to recognize Republika Srpska and poke the US right in the eye (which they deserve), because you can bet they will declare independence immediately. Northern Kosovo is under Serbian control, and will remain that way no matter what, it is very clear now. The Russian bear is itching for a fight after years of shameful leadership by Yeltsin. I am happy to see that Mr. Montgomery is coming around slowly. The tide has turned and every day the Serbian position gets stronger, and the albanian one gets weaker, as even Americans like Montgomery are starting to slowly step back from this crazy idea of creating a greater albania illegaly. Even the albanians number one ally is starting to abandon them. Justice is prevailing over power, just like Mr. Kostunica has said.

"Once the Kosovo Albanians understand that the international community is aligned in discouraging any action on independence, he believes they will simply have to accept it." Ouch! I have posted before this exact scenerio. What if the West said to Pristina, independence is off the table? What could the Albanians do, fight NATO? The developments are certainly becoming interesting.

Montgomery states;

"One factor for sure. The Bush Administration will not want its troops involved in violence in yet another country in addition to Iraq and Afghanistan in the run-up to next year's elections. This adds yet another reason why the U.S. Administration will want to deal with this problem this year and in a way which keeps its troops out of harm's way.

That means unilateral recognition and turning the implementation over to the EU. Keeping key EU countries in line for this solution, however, will take intense diplomatic efforts at the highest levels"

But somehow I can't see any other EU nation wanting act outside of the UN (1244 will remain valid) to send their troops into the mess the US have created by promising something that was not deliverable! Unilateral action will be in breach of 1244 and would thus be an act of War on the Soverign state of Serbia and bring us back to 9th June without this time US involvement! So who is he suggesting in the EU who would do what he suggest? Certainly not the Germans who have been on edge about getting them out and the UK military are over streched, the French possibly but I doubt it given their stance about Iraq war and it's illegitamacy of not going through the UN so which EU state is there to do this???. Looks like not even the key EU states will want to send in their troops either and the scramble will be to get out as quick as possible!

So was that a clear message from Polt when he let slip;

“What if we were to tell you today that we were wrong and that Kosovo is yours, and that we are withdrawing our forces from Kosovo by Saturday. What then?!”

- was it a slip or was it a clear message??? Certainly looks like the US administration are looking for some face saving solution what with the suggestions of partition and now confederation but cleverly getting proxies to suggest them!

Mr. Montgomery, it is about time that you finally say somthing that you and entire western world knew-meaning who the terrorists of Balcan are. The entire world is fighting terrorism with only some success-but Serbs have to fight it with arms tied behind their back. I am sure you will get earfull about this artical from those that know only terrorism. But thank you for breaking away from rest of western media and finally telling the true. After all rest of Serbia is living in peace with its minority-That alone should tell you somthing. It took west long time to become democratic but look how far Serbia came in only a decade. Shouldn't they be commandet for that instead constantly putting them down to satisfy those who are looking for trouble.

This is a very intersting and different slant from the ususal Montgomery article regarding Serbia's soverign province. Certainly would be good if rather then freezing the conflict all understood the win-win opportunity is there for the taking. Finally the US are starting to understand the complexities of the precedent they wished to set!

The EU can resolve the Gordian Knot by respecting the sovereignity of Serbia while pushing Serbia for greater responsibility & speed in progressing towards EU standards and membership.

Is it not beneficial for all of Serbia's citizens if they can forge a combined effort on the road to EU membership?

Together all would benefit - why create artifical borders when genuine borders are no exisistant within the EU?

What a day if NATO tells Kosovo "sorry you can't be independent" and Kosovo starts staging attacks on NATO personnel. I mean, the irony in all this...

It's about time that other people other than Serbian Ex-Patriots living in America realize that the U.S. is not going to put anymore of it's troops in harms way. At the end of the day, Kosovo is not important to the U.S. and we have absolutely no commitment to stay...at all! The EU diplomat was right in saying that America created this mess, but greatly underestimates America's willingness to just leave. What are the Europeans going to do then? Pull out of Afghanistan and Lebanon to deal with Kosovo? I doubt it. Violence has been on the way for eight years, why does everyone act shocked to finally see it coming?

" Those countries considering unilateral action will have to be asking themselves (and will be asked by other EU countries) just how important Kosovo is to them in the larger picture. The answer is "not very." Moreover, the growing opposition to unilateral action consists of several countries/leaders with real expertise in the Balkans, giving their arguments more weight."

key-paragraph I would say.
I am quite pleased to read something here, that I was saying a long time ago.

it´s up to the EU now, and I really doubt that they will risk a division within the EU for the sake of 1.8 million K-albanians.
it´s just improbable.

they will have to accept it, and afterwards, as far as I expect it, be quite content to have a broad autonomy and not be be "ruled" by Belgrade.

"has not "learned" to avoid the use of violence, are the Kosovo Albanians."

Excuse me Mr. Montgomery, but wasnt it the Kosova Albanians who resisted peacefully for 10 years while suffering the brutality of the Milosevic regime?

People look at Kosova post 1999, but never go back and look at how it war prior to then.

Most people think everything started in 1999, and few understand that betwen 1989-1999 things were just as bad.

We resisted peacufully, were humiliated by the 10% Serbs that lived here and had to suffer Serbia's elected leaders.

Croatians, Bosnian Muslims and Serbs took up arms against each other immediatly, while the Albanians waited patiently for a solution for almost 10 years before KLA showed up out of frustration.

You say you have never been to Kosova and dont know the character of the Kosova Albanians, well ... perhaps you SHOULD come to Kosova.

We will not live under Serbia again, and anyone who tries to force us to do so is greatlty mistaken.

By cornering the Kosova Albanians the US will lose and lose bigtime. Other interests will step in and the Kosova Albanians will have no choice but to accept those interests.

Mike,

we all know that these are all empty threats and giving Nick the view that he is spot is all the more likely for him o continue beliveing the fantasy that Iran (or Saudi Arabia) can mysteriously support the ethnic-Albaninans without the EU noticing and immediatly ringing huge alarm bells. Recetly the EU have been pushing the Bosniaks to boot out all the islamiscists out and I guess it would not be looked favorably by a large number of EU states. Such a move would backfire all the more so then the illegal act of a unilateral declaration itself.

Reality is the ethnic-Albanians have placed all their eggs in the US basket and current indicators that independence will never hatch! Was it not Joe Diguardio who said it was a last chance - looks like there never was a chance!

This is obviously an article that Albanians do not want to see, yet alone comment on. If you try and discredit the author, good luck, he knows the Balkans well. I always respect yet, not always agree with, his commentaries. Nick, your freedom fighting KLA are nothing but a bunch of clan driven Albanian terrorists. There agenda was self-serving, and not always in the interest of Kosovo's poor population. Look at Haradinaj, a KLA leader yet, a major clan head. Do you not think his first goal was towards his clan? I am at a loss for woeds at times. A_Kosovars are so far behind EU standards, that it's hard to say anything. I was recently in Paris, and I thought to myself, Pristina wants to be at par with this place in the EU, ARE YOU KIDDING? Jesus, it is night and day. Bottom line, I in favor of justice, and Serbia was not dealt with that way. Clinton's dirty and illegal NATO action was a crime, I hope it will be exposed one day. The Serb people did not deserve that. If DC hated Milosevic, why kill innocent Serbian citizens? I wiil do my best to not get Hillary elected.

Your Excellency, here is some food for thoughts:

EU to prioritize Serbia’s integration into the Union, in its current borders, with all the conditions attached. That way, both Serbia and Kosovo would have a common target and would be forced to work together towards the mutual goal.
Once the EU membership is a fact of life, the borders become less relevant and the concept of EU regions kicks in, providing the Kosovo Albanians to achieve their desired level of independence.
That way:
1. No violation of the International Law
2. No need for strains within USA-EU relationship on issue of unilateral recognition
3. No changing of internationally recognized borders
4. No setting precedence for others in the world
5. No need for insistence (must admit a weird one) that this is a unique case
6. No headaches with how to treat Repubika of Serbska and Kraina region in Croatia in the future
7. You may well continue this list yourself …

Now, how about that?
And if it , eventually, turns this way – I want it to be noted and would expect a bottle of good local wine for solving this Gordian Knot – despite all the odds and “smart international efforts”…

And one more thing, I fail to understand what is to USA? Why are you guys ready to go all nine yards for something that, after all, has almost certain lose-lose outcome, yet even the President does not shy away in making very precise promises? Is there any truth in the Serbian claim that what USA really aims for is a huge military complex of a size of Benelux – but not bound by any constrains of any international law?

I doubt that Albanians are much more prone to violence than the other Yugoslavs. But I do think that that as long as we reward their violence they will keep giving us more. Just consider the past decade:
- The KLA in 1997/1998 had foreign support and showed fast results.
- The "rebellion" in South Serbia in 2001 could happen because of US support. They kept the disarmed zone along the Serb border and they didn't guard "their" border.
- Guerrilla infiltration in Macedonia again happened mostly over a US guarded border. And the result in Macedonia could only be described as a victory for the Albanians.
- March 2004 resulted in a more negative international view of the Albanian side. But at the same time most commentors agreed that it had strengthened the position of the Albanians in Kosovo.
- well known trouble makers like Haradjinaj are treated like royalty by the UNMIK/KFOR. Nobody seems to wonder how their words are so successful in stopping violence.

Will the Albanians resort to violence towards the internationals? I doubt it. Killing Americans would make it much more difficult for the US to support the Albanian cause. It would look like supporting terrorism.

One of the commentors wrote about Albanians as "in the corner". I think the opposite is true. The Ahtisaari negotiations were balanced towards the Albanians. The Albanians can concede much more before they are really in the corner.

Tom Harding & Gunnar Knob,

very good points and I do truly believe that the EU will fashion a "European" compromise along with the other Europeans in the Troika i.e. Russia. Ahtisaari plan was and is the US policy written large and it has failed there is no doubt on that. RIP plan A especially given the deafening silence of the US administration now that they have failed to push it in the UN after the chat at the begining of July - I am certain Bush knew then Russia's intentions as they were told over a year before but kept on ignoring it.

What is more is there is a clear sign of reversing out of the cul de sac of independence drive that they were speeding into - this is evidenced by articles such as Montgomery's and the momumental slip of Polt just before he left Serbia;

"What if we were to tell you today that we were wrong and that Kosovo is yours, and that we are withdrawing our forces from Kosovo by Saturday. What then?"

Serbia needs to work with the Europeans in the Troika to support the "what if" and making a stable "what then" compromise that needs to be fashioned so that the region does not continue to be a black hole for the EU and equally showing that actually the Russians are not being obstinate that on the contrary they are being principled too and want the EU to prosper as it serves both the EU & Russian interest too.

In the large scheme of things surely the Serbian citizens of Albanian ethnicity need to be assured that in reality things in Serbia have changed and together all of Serbia can progress into Europe and all can benefit.

Many Serbians will question EU integration and rightly question it if it implies dismemberment and partition of your state. Thus if the Europeans in the Troika can be helped by Serbia in these talks to fashion an inclusive and "european" compromise then it is obvious that the US will ensure compliance to the European solution.

Lets put it in simple terms forcing dismemberment & partition of Serbia will freeze Europe integration and create a split that will lead to a new cold war aligning Serbia with a resurgent Russia who will have evidence of US self interest and blatant imperialism and a serious ratcheting up rhetoric not seen since the 60's with totally different but predicatble consequences to the global economy.

The alternative scenario of a "European" compromise which respects international law and intergrates is win all round. The uphill element is showing the ethnic-Albanians that they have all to gain by an inclusive compromise and that human rights need to be protected for all not selective for who ever is the local majority.

All the above is not gonna happen.
You folks dont seem to understand the resolve of the Bush Administration and the EU's bigs, let alone Kosovar Albanians.
You are being unrealistic, the facts on the ground (Kosovo) tell a different story.
You can NOT force 2 million Albanians into submission to agree and join Serbia again.
You know that as well as I do.
I can understand your point of view but there is another point and that is :
Kosovars want to part with Serbia as far as territory.
They want to be Independent, they will be given INDEPENDENCE for a mere reason that reflects in some other situations that US is involved and wants to prove a point.

Lazer,
You made no sense whatsoever.

@princip

"But somehow I can't see any other EU nation wanting act outside of the UN (1244 will remain valid) to send their troops into the mess the US have created by promising something that was not deliverable!"

Ultimately economics and larger EU interests will dictate policy. This is why eventually the letter of the law of 1244 will ultimately reach fruition. The responsibility of securing peace lies with the state of Serbia primarily, in concert with EU assistance. In the coming years, we will see the borders secured by the Serbian Armed Forces, as well as all of its settlements where Serbs, Croats and Roma live. In this way, both communities will be able to enjoy autonomy, all the while avoiding further "balkanization of the balkans."

The only people that can bring peace in Kosovo are the Albanian and Serbian Police forces, protecting their respective communities, with larger protection from the S.A.F and Europe working in concert. Any insurrection will be quickly put to rest as we have seen that the KLA has the tendency to melt into the mountains instead of engage in any direct or meaningful miltary engagment.

What is different now, as opposed to 1999, is that the American cavalry will have no pretext to enter and come the aid of the balkan version of the mujahadeen. Those cards have been played. Sadly, I predict a frozen conflict, like Montgomery, but that is sadly the reality in the former Yugoslavia.

lazer i don't think they will have a choice if that is decided by the EU and US. Resolve yes but to get involve in a war we have no interest then i am sorry sir you will be fighting NATO and if the US jumps ship and leave Camp Bondsteel then you as albanians are on your own. I am sorry to say, by attacking NATO forces there i don't think they will. But if it is all or nothing NATO will ReDeploy Macedonia to secure the border so there is no interference From Macedonia and Albania. Remember those two country want into the Euro Club.

I was looking for the money quote in this article, and found the entire article is the money quote. Harsh antacid reality does indeed bite, and this was the clearest scenario I've read (even more clear than Svilanovic's statement two weeks ago) about the absolute Catch-22 Kosovo is in and the high expectations the US created, but now cannot seem to deliver.

Nick, your statement, "By cornering the Kosova Albanians the US will lose and lose bigtime. Other interests will step in and the Kosova Albanians will have no choice but to accept those interests" is also spot on. If independence means that much to many of you - especially those who, as Amb. Montogomery says, would be willing to resort to violence, and if the US is not giving it, they will seek support elsewhere: Iran? Saudi Arabia? We've been lucky this conflict hasn't gone "Islamic" yet. Pray it NEVER does.

"it is just freedom. You already have that from Ottomans, so why should we now not have it."
Femi, because we can't have it either.
Ceku goes to Croatia to fight so that we can't have it!
We can't have it in Bosnia either.
Are you saying that Serbs simply don't deserve something that others do? Or that Albanians deserve more then anyone else?

It's true that Serb entity in Bosnia did not exists before teh war. Same in Croatia (and it still doesn't exist).
Let me tell you few things about debate that was going on there before the war, and
after HDZ won the elections in Croatia.
SDS (Serbian Democratic Party) polled poorly and only got electoral mandates in the Knin area. SDS’s poor showing partly reflected the lack of political organization in other parts of Croatia, but also the fact that domestic opinion was still moderate as most of Croatia’s Serbs chose to vote for the reformed communists in the Party for Democratic Change.
After HDZ took power they targeted "overreprezentation" of Serbs, and many were fired (not left jobs in political boycott as in Kosovo).
In late June 1990, Tuđman’s government went on to propose a package of constitutional amendments, which were quickly adopted on 25 July.
One of the most significant changes was that Serbs were declared minority in Croatia.
Others were that five-pointed star was replaced with Checkered flag, requirement of a two-thirds majority in decisions on interethnic issues was removed and Croatian became the sole official language. Term "Croato-Serbian language" was retired. Cyrillic was gone.
At the time, the SDS also took a fairly moderate position. The party advocated cultural autonomy for the Serbs.
When Raskovic's proposal for cultural autonomy was undermined by Zagreb, another more extreme wing of SDS emerged lead by Milan Babic, the mayor of Knin.
Babic demanded territorial autonomy. Rašković on the other hand maintained his demand for constituent status and cultural autonomy for the Serbs, and stated that he was against political autonomy.
On the day the constitutional amendments were passed by the Croatian parliament (on July 25th 1990), the so-called ‘Serb Assembly’ was held in Srb in Krajina. The Assembly constituted ‘the Serb parliament’ and elected Babić as its president. The gradual shift in demands was reflected in the Declaration on Sovereignty and Autonomy of the Serb People which was adopted by the Assembly in Srb. The declaration stated that the “Serbian people in Croatia have the right to autonomy. The content of that autonomy will depend on either federal or confederal order in Yugoslavia.” The degree of autonomy was therefore linked to the future status of Yugoslavia: “In the conditions of confederal state order of Yugoslavia, the Serbian people in Croatia has the right to full political-territorial autonomy”.In a further move, the Assembly also decided to hold a referendum on the declaration of autonomy.
Although Tuđman stated that, “territorial autonomy for the Serbs is out of the question. We will not allow it” ,the referendum, nevertheless, went ahead on 19 August with majority of the Serb voters supporting the proposal for autonomy.
In the nutshell, West was then saying that not allowing ANY autonomy (not even cultural) was a moderate positon, while asking for autonomy (cultural or later territorial)was extreme position.
Strangly, when it comes to Kosovo, Serbian offers of "substential autonomy" are called extreme, hard-line positon, while not accepting anything short of independance is called moderate position.
That, after swearing that REPUBLICS of forme Yugoslavia cannot be divided (when this was an issue in Croatia, and Bosnia).
"Kosova however has different specifics, there is no parallels that can be drown between them. "
I know. Even during 90's you had a right to use your own language, something that was denied to Croatian Serbs. There were schools in Alabanian language, etc. (you boycotted, but it's another story). Since 1974 you had substantial autonomy, something again that Serbs in Croatia or in Bosnia didn't have. So, don't tell me that
parallels can't be drown between them , because we know that very well.
You had everything that Serbs wanted in Croatia and Bosnia, but was denied to them.
"New entity was created in Bosnia that never exited before. Republika Serbska never heard in my life before has been created."
You are right. It didn't exist. Kosovo did. Why Albanians had autonomy and Serbs in Bosnia didn't? There is very big inequality in how minority is treated in Serbia, compared to Croatia or Bosnia. And you suggest to give Kosovo independance to achieve equality?
I just read some study that shows that there is still gender inequallity even in well-developed countries. Women earn less then men on the same jobs.
Femi has a solution. Increase salaries for men, and ban women from voting. (because men are priviledged from the beginning we should give them even more, while taking more from the women). This should achieve equality.
This is your logic, Femi. Since Albanians are priviledged from the beginning (compared to Croatian Serbs, for instance)they should be given even more, while Serbs in Croatia that didn't have autonomy should have right to speak their language taken away. And Ceku went to fight for that.

This article is not well researched.

Most of the comments here show clear one sided or one mentality viewpoint.

Things look better in paper than in reality. One point I have to make is as soon as someone 'researches' Kosov (you fill the next letter) and writtes an article, as soon as the word "Bush administration" comes up you know that the article is beyond biased. This is the reason why I read better articles in BIRN than in "liberal / independent / etc" places.

Princip,

The EU couldnt spot Godzilla in the center of Berlin :)

I am a very big supporter of US policy. They made some mistakes yes, but who doesnt!!! They have done more good and have used their superpower status more fairly than most states in history.

I, like most Kosova Albanians genuinely believe that our future lies with the EU and NATO and the fact that we are traditionally muslim plays a very litte part during our daily lives. Everyone who knows something abou the Balkans knows fully well that Albanians are highly secular.

Mike,

The issue has not gone islamic because the Kosova Albanian population does not consider itself Islamic. I seriously doubt any Kosova Albanian would be willing to plead our case with Iran or Saudi Arabia.

But i suspect that in the unlikely event of a frozen conflict which will rise tensions to boiling point, then there will be those who will start becoming convinced that the US and the EU have failed us and will look elsewere for support.

Mike Wrote: US promised Prishtina the World!!

US is promising us nothing more than freedom, freedom we deserve, just like everybody else.

Mike it is not the World it is just freedom. You already have that from Ottomans, so why should we now not have it.

Mr. Mongomery, Your honesty is most appreciated, and your analysis of the Albanian state of mind regarding the use of violence and terrorism is also very correct, as the Serbs know quite well. They are certainly comfortable in the use of those methods. But all this brings up a critical question for you to consider: Are you willing to reward those who threaten and perform, inplicitly and explicitly, violence and terrorism with fulfilment of their demands? Also, do you think that appeasement with the amputation of Kosovo, handing it to them on a silver platter, will satisfy their appetites for other areas inhabited by Albanians? Also, with the world watching, isn't the precedent set a very dangerous one to international law, the UN Charter and world stability? I got an idea..How about the US and EU develop a backbone and tell the Albanians "no", and tell them that NATO has a way of dealing with violence, a la 1999. Since the Kosovar Albanian position is wrong as a matter of international law, the position must fail.

Princip, It's not my intention to encourange anyone, and as I said, I certainly hope certain Albanian sectors do not start looking to the Middle East as some alternative form of support. The Saudis have absolutely no problem giving people money and support - in exchange for a heavy dosage of Wahabism. Yet Washington promised Pristina the world, and they are now realizing they cannot deliver on all their promises. If there is any sanity to these negotiations, Belgrade and Pristina will make some hard sacrifices for the greater good of compromise, and I can only hope that Pristina afterwards calls it even - not looks elsewhere to manifest unrealized goals. Still, I can't answer for Nick, but I think he wouldn't be in favor of the Middle East alternative.

Veda
When Yugosllavia collapsed Serbia’s policy was wherever Serbs lived to create new entities.
A quarter of Croatia was occupied but it did not succeed, in Bosnia it did, it carved the country into two halves.
Half Bosnians and Croats the other half Serbs.

New entity was created in Bosnia that never exited before.
Republika Serbska never heard in my life before has been created.
Serbia achieved this through genocide, ethnic cleansing as the principal policy..
Kosova however has different specifics, there is no parallels that can be drown between them.
We live in Kosova, it is our land, our country, it has been so for millennia.

Our new Kosova will guarantee Serbs greater rights, something that Serbia has failed to implement in Preshevo, Bujanoc, Medvedghja.

All the above is not gonna happen.
You folks dont seem to understand the resolve of the Bush Administration and the EU's bigs, let alone Kosovar Albanians.
You are being unrealistic, the facts on the ground (Kosovo) tell a different story.
You can NOT force 2 million Albanians into submission to agree and join Serbia again.
You know that as well as I do.
I can understand your point of view but there is another point and that is :
Kosovars want to part with Serbia as far as territory.
They want to be Independent, they will be given INDEPENDENCE for a mere reason that reflects in some other situations that US is involved and wants to prove a point.

This is obviously an article that Albanians do not want to see, yet alone comment on. If you try and discredit the author, good luck, he knows the Balkans well. I always respect yet, not always agree with, his commentaries. Nick, your freedom fighting KLA are nothing but a bunch of clan driven Albanian terrorists. There agenda was self-serving, and not always in the interest of Kosovo's poor population. Look at Haradinaj, a KLA leader yet, a major clan head. Do you not think his first goal was towards his clan? I am at a loss for woeds at times. A_Kosovars are so far behind EU standards, that it's hard to say anything. I was recently in Paris, and I thought to myself, Pristina wants to be at par with this place in the EU, ARE YOU KIDDING? Jesus, it is night and day. Bottom line, I in favor of justice, and Serbia was not dealt with that way. Clinton's dirty and illegal NATO action was a crime, I hope it will be exposed one day. The Serb people did not deserve that. If DC hated Milosevic, why kill innocent Serbian citizens? I wiil do my best to not get Hillary elected.

"Once the Kosovo Albanians understand that the international community is aligned in discouraging any action on independence, he believes they will simply have to accept it." Ouch! I have posted before this exact scenerio. What if the West said to Pristina, independence is off the table? What could the Albanians do, fight NATO? The developments are certainly becoming interesting.

This is a very intersting and different slant from the ususal Montgomery article regarding Serbia's soverign province. Certainly would be good if rather then freezing the conflict all understood the win-win opportunity is there for the taking. Finally the US are starting to understand the complexities of the precedent they wished to set!

The EU can resolve the Gordian Knot by respecting the sovereignity of Serbia while pushing Serbia for greater responsibility & speed in progressing towards EU standards and membership.

Is it not beneficial for all of Serbia's citizens if they can forge a combined effort on the road to EU membership?

Together all would benefit - why create artifical borders when genuine borders are no exisistant within the EU?

It's about time that other people other than Serbian Ex-Patriots living in America realize that the U.S. is not going to put anymore of it's troops in harms way. At the end of the day, Kosovo is not important to the U.S. and we have absolutely no commitment to stay...at all! The EU diplomat was right in saying that America created this mess, but greatly underestimates America's willingness to just leave. What are the Europeans going to do then? Pull out of Afghanistan and Lebanon to deal with Kosovo? I doubt it. Violence has been on the way for eight years, why does everyone act shocked to finally see it coming?

What a day if NATO tells Kosovo "sorry you can't be independent" and Kosovo starts staging attacks on NATO personnel. I mean, the irony in all this...

Montgomery states;

"One factor for sure. The Bush Administration will not want its troops involved in violence in yet another country in addition to Iraq and Afghanistan in the run-up to next year's elections. This adds yet another reason why the U.S. Administration will want to deal with this problem this year and in a way which keeps its troops out of harm's way.

That means unilateral recognition and turning the implementation over to the EU. Keeping key EU countries in line for this solution, however, will take intense diplomatic efforts at the highest levels"

But somehow I can't see any other EU nation wanting act outside of the UN (1244 will remain valid) to send their troops into the mess the US have created by promising something that was not deliverable! Unilateral action will be in breach of 1244 and would thus be an act of War on the Soverign state of Serbia and bring us back to 9th June without this time US involvement! So who is he suggesting in the EU who would do what he suggest? Certainly not the Germans who have been on edge about getting them out and the UK military are over streched, the French possibly but I doubt it given their stance about Iraq war and it's illegitamacy of not going through the UN so which EU state is there to do this???. Looks like not even the key EU states will want to send in their troops either and the scramble will be to get out as quick as possible!

So was that a clear message from Polt when he let slip;

“What if we were to tell you today that we were wrong and that Kosovo is yours, and that we are withdrawing our forces from Kosovo by Saturday. What then?!”

- was it a slip or was it a clear message??? Certainly looks like the US administration are looking for some face saving solution what with the suggestions of partition and now confederation but cleverly getting proxies to suggest them!

Mr. Montgomery, it is about time that you finally say somthing that you and entire western world knew-meaning who the terrorists of Balcan are. The entire world is fighting terrorism with only some success-but Serbs have to fight it with arms tied behind their back. I am sure you will get earfull about this artical from those that know only terrorism. But thank you for breaking away from rest of western media and finally telling the true. After all rest of Serbia is living in peace with its minority-That alone should tell you somthing. It took west long time to become democratic but look how far Serbia came in only a decade. Shouldn't they be commandet for that instead constantly putting them down to satisfy those who are looking for trouble.

" Those countries considering unilateral action will have to be asking themselves (and will be asked by other EU countries) just how important Kosovo is to them in the larger picture. The answer is "not very." Moreover, the growing opposition to unilateral action consists of several countries/leaders with real expertise in the Balkans, giving their arguments more weight."

key-paragraph I would say.
I am quite pleased to read something here, that I was saying a long time ago.

it´s up to the EU now, and I really doubt that they will risk a division within the EU for the sake of 1.8 million K-albanians.
it´s just improbable.

they will have to accept it, and afterwards, as far as I expect it, be quite content to have a broad autonomy and not be be "ruled" by Belgrade.

Lazer,
You made no sense whatsoever.

@princip

"But somehow I can't see any other EU nation wanting act outside of the UN (1244 will remain valid) to send their troops into the mess the US have created by promising something that was not deliverable!"

Ultimately economics and larger EU interests will dictate policy. This is why eventually the letter of the law of 1244 will ultimately reach fruition. The responsibility of securing peace lies with the state of Serbia primarily, in concert with EU assistance. In the coming years, we will see the borders secured by the Serbian Armed Forces, as well as all of its settlements where Serbs, Croats and Roma live. In this way, both communities will be able to enjoy autonomy, all the while avoiding further "balkanization of the balkans."

The only people that can bring peace in Kosovo are the Albanian and Serbian Police forces, protecting their respective communities, with larger protection from the S.A.F and Europe working in concert. Any insurrection will be quickly put to rest as we have seen that the KLA has the tendency to melt into the mountains instead of engage in any direct or meaningful miltary engagment.

What is different now, as opposed to 1999, is that the American cavalry will have no pretext to enter and come the aid of the balkan version of the mujahadeen. Those cards have been played. Sadly, I predict a frozen conflict, like Montgomery, but that is sadly the reality in the former Yugoslavia.

lazer i don't think they will have a choice if that is decided by the EU and US. Resolve yes but to get involve in a war we have no interest then i am sorry sir you will be fighting NATO and if the US jumps ship and leave Camp Bondsteel then you as albanians are on your own. I am sorry to say, by attacking NATO forces there i don't think they will. But if it is all or nothing NATO will ReDeploy Macedonia to secure the border so there is no interference From Macedonia and Albania. Remember those two country want into the Euro Club.

I was looking for the money quote in this article, and found the entire article is the money quote. Harsh antacid reality does indeed bite, and this was the clearest scenario I've read (even more clear than Svilanovic's statement two weeks ago) about the absolute Catch-22 Kosovo is in and the high expectations the US created, but now cannot seem to deliver.

Nick, your statement, "By cornering the Kosova Albanians the US will lose and lose bigtime. Other interests will step in and the Kosova Albanians will have no choice but to accept those interests" is also spot on. If independence means that much to many of you - especially those who, as Amb. Montogomery says, would be willing to resort to violence, and if the US is not giving it, they will seek support elsewhere: Iran? Saudi Arabia? We've been lucky this conflict hasn't gone "Islamic" yet. Pray it NEVER does.

Mike,

we all know that these are all empty threats and giving Nick the view that he is spot is all the more likely for him o continue beliveing the fantasy that Iran (or Saudi Arabia) can mysteriously support the ethnic-Albaninans without the EU noticing and immediatly ringing huge alarm bells. Recetly the EU have been pushing the Bosniaks to boot out all the islamiscists out and I guess it would not be looked favorably by a large number of EU states. Such a move would backfire all the more so then the illegal act of a unilateral declaration itself.

Reality is the ethnic-Albanians have placed all their eggs in the US basket and current indicators that independence will never hatch! Was it not Joe Diguardio who said it was a last chance - looks like there never was a chance!

Princip, It's not my intention to encourange anyone, and as I said, I certainly hope certain Albanian sectors do not start looking to the Middle East as some alternative form of support. The Saudis have absolutely no problem giving people money and support - in exchange for a heavy dosage of Wahabism. Yet Washington promised Pristina the world, and they are now realizing they cannot deliver on all their promises. If there is any sanity to these negotiations, Belgrade and Pristina will make some hard sacrifices for the greater good of compromise, and I can only hope that Pristina afterwards calls it even - not looks elsewhere to manifest unrealized goals. Still, I can't answer for Nick, but I think he wouldn't be in favor of the Middle East alternative.

Your Excellency, here is some food for thoughts:

EU to prioritize Serbia’s integration into the Union, in its current borders, with all the conditions attached. That way, both Serbia and Kosovo would have a common target and would be forced to work together towards the mutual goal.
Once the EU membership is a fact of life, the borders become less relevant and the concept of EU regions kicks in, providing the Kosovo Albanians to achieve their desired level of independence.
That way:
1. No violation of the International Law
2. No need for strains within USA-EU relationship on issue of unilateral recognition
3. No changing of internationally recognized borders
4. No setting precedence for others in the world
5. No need for insistence (must admit a weird one) that this is a unique case
6. No headaches with how to treat Repubika of Serbska and Kraina region in Croatia in the future
7. You may well continue this list yourself …

Now, how about that?
And if it , eventually, turns this way – I want it to be noted and would expect a bottle of good local wine for solving this Gordian Knot – despite all the odds and “smart international efforts”…

And one more thing, I fail to understand what is to USA? Why are you guys ready to go all nine yards for something that, after all, has almost certain lose-lose outcome, yet even the President does not shy away in making very precise promises? Is there any truth in the Serbian claim that what USA really aims for is a huge military complex of a size of Benelux – but not bound by any constrains of any international law?

"it is just freedom. You already have that from Ottomans, so why should we now not have it."
Femi, because we can't have it either.
Ceku goes to Croatia to fight so that we can't have it!
We can't have it in Bosnia either.
Are you saying that Serbs simply don't deserve something that others do? Or that Albanians deserve more then anyone else?

"has not "learned" to avoid the use of violence, are the Kosovo Albanians."

Excuse me Mr. Montgomery, but wasnt it the Kosova Albanians who resisted peacefully for 10 years while suffering the brutality of the Milosevic regime?

People look at Kosova post 1999, but never go back and look at how it war prior to then.

Most people think everything started in 1999, and few understand that betwen 1989-1999 things were just as bad.

We resisted peacufully, were humiliated by the 10% Serbs that lived here and had to suffer Serbia's elected leaders.

Croatians, Bosnian Muslims and Serbs took up arms against each other immediatly, while the Albanians waited patiently for a solution for almost 10 years before KLA showed up out of frustration.

You say you have never been to Kosova and dont know the character of the Kosova Albanians, well ... perhaps you SHOULD come to Kosova.

We will not live under Serbia again, and anyone who tries to force us to do so is greatlty mistaken.

By cornering the Kosova Albanians the US will lose and lose bigtime. Other interests will step in and the Kosova Albanians will have no choice but to accept those interests.

This article is not well researched.

Most of the comments here show clear one sided or one mentality viewpoint.

Things look better in paper than in reality. One point I have to make is as soon as someone 'researches' Kosov (you fill the next letter) and writtes an article, as soon as the word "Bush administration" comes up you know that the article is beyond biased. This is the reason why I read better articles in BIRN than in "liberal / independent / etc" places.

Princip,

The EU couldnt spot Godzilla in the center of Berlin :)

I am a very big supporter of US policy. They made some mistakes yes, but who doesnt!!! They have done more good and have used their superpower status more fairly than most states in history.

I, like most Kosova Albanians genuinely believe that our future lies with the EU and NATO and the fact that we are traditionally muslim plays a very litte part during our daily lives. Everyone who knows something abou the Balkans knows fully well that Albanians are highly secular.

Mike,

The issue has not gone islamic because the Kosova Albanian population does not consider itself Islamic. I seriously doubt any Kosova Albanian would be willing to plead our case with Iran or Saudi Arabia.

But i suspect that in the unlikely event of a frozen conflict which will rise tensions to boiling point, then there will be those who will start becoming convinced that the US and the EU have failed us and will look elsewere for support.

Mike Wrote: US promised Prishtina the World!!

US is promising us nothing more than freedom, freedom we deserve, just like everybody else.

Mike it is not the World it is just freedom. You already have that from Ottomans, so why should we now not have it.

Veda
When Yugosllavia collapsed Serbia’s policy was wherever Serbs lived to create new entities.
A quarter of Croatia was occupied but it did not succeed, in Bosnia it did, it carved the country into two halves.
Half Bosnians and Croats the other half Serbs.

New entity was created in Bosnia that never exited before.
Republika Serbska never heard in my life before has been created.
Serbia achieved this through genocide, ethnic cleansing as the principal policy..
Kosova however has different specifics, there is no parallels that can be drown between them.
We live in Kosova, it is our land, our country, it has been so for millennia.

Our new Kosova will guarantee Serbs greater rights, something that Serbia has failed to implement in Preshevo, Bujanoc, Medvedghja.

I doubt that Albanians are much more prone to violence than the other Yugoslavs. But I do think that that as long as we reward their violence they will keep giving us more. Just consider the past decade:
- The KLA in 1997/1998 had foreign support and showed fast results.
- The "rebellion" in South Serbia in 2001 could happen because of US support. They kept the disarmed zone along the Serb border and they didn't guard "their" border.
- Guerrilla infiltration in Macedonia again happened mostly over a US guarded border. And the result in Macedonia could only be described as a victory for the Albanians.
- March 2004 resulted in a more negative international view of the Albanian side. But at the same time most commentors agreed that it had strengthened the position of the Albanians in Kosovo.
- well known trouble makers like Haradjinaj are treated like royalty by the UNMIK/KFOR. Nobody seems to wonder how their words are so successful in stopping violence.

Will the Albanians resort to violence towards the internationals? I doubt it. Killing Americans would make it much more difficult for the US to support the Albanian cause. It would look like supporting terrorism.

One of the commentors wrote about Albanians as "in the corner". I think the opposite is true. The Ahtisaari negotiations were balanced towards the Albanians. The Albanians can concede much more before they are really in the corner.

Tom Harding & Gunnar Knob,

very good points and I do truly believe that the EU will fashion a "European" compromise along with the other Europeans in the Troika i.e. Russia. Ahtisaari plan was and is the US policy written large and it has failed there is no doubt on that. RIP plan A especially given the deafening silence of the US administration now that they have failed to push it in the UN after the chat at the begining of July - I am certain Bush knew then Russia's intentions as they were told over a year before but kept on ignoring it.

What is more is there is a clear sign of reversing out of the cul de sac of independence drive that they were speeding into - this is evidenced by articles such as Montgomery's and the momumental slip of Polt just before he left Serbia;

"What if we were to tell you today that we were wrong and that Kosovo is yours, and that we are withdrawing our forces from Kosovo by Saturday. What then?"

Serbia needs to work with the Europeans in the Troika to support the "what if" and making a stable "what then" compromise that needs to be fashioned so that the region does not continue to be a black hole for the EU and equally showing that actually the Russians are not being obstinate that on the contrary they are being principled too and want the EU to prosper as it serves both the EU & Russian interest too.

In the large scheme of things surely the Serbian citizens of Albanian ethnicity need to be assured that in reality things in Serbia have changed and together all of Serbia can progress into Europe and all can benefit.

Many Serbians will question EU integration and rightly question it if it implies dismemberment and partition of your state. Thus if the Europeans in the Troika can be helped by Serbia in these talks to fashion an inclusive and "european" compromise then it is obvious that the US will ensure compliance to the European solution.

Lets put it in simple terms forcing dismemberment & partition of Serbia will freeze Europe integration and create a split that will lead to a new cold war aligning Serbia with a resurgent Russia who will have evidence of US self interest and blatant imperialism and a serious ratcheting up rhetoric not seen since the 60's with totally different but predicatble consequences to the global economy.

The alternative scenario of a "European" compromise which respects international law and intergrates is win all round. The uphill element is showing the ethnic-Albanians that they have all to gain by an inclusive compromise and that human rights need to be protected for all not selective for who ever is the local majority.

It's true that Serb entity in Bosnia did not exists before teh war. Same in Croatia (and it still doesn't exist).
Let me tell you few things about debate that was going on there before the war, and
after HDZ won the elections in Croatia.
SDS (Serbian Democratic Party) polled poorly and only got electoral mandates in the Knin area. SDS’s poor showing partly reflected the lack of political organization in other parts of Croatia, but also the fact that domestic opinion was still moderate as most of Croatia’s Serbs chose to vote for the reformed communists in the Party for Democratic Change.
After HDZ took power they targeted "overreprezentation" of Serbs, and many were fired (not left jobs in political boycott as in Kosovo).
In late June 1990, Tuđman’s government went on to propose a package of constitutional amendments, which were quickly adopted on 25 July.
One of the most significant changes was that Serbs were declared minority in Croatia.
Others were that five-pointed star was replaced with Checkered flag, requirement of a two-thirds majority in decisions on interethnic issues was removed and Croatian became the sole official language. Term "Croato-Serbian language" was retired. Cyrillic was gone.
At the time, the SDS also took a fairly moderate position. The party advocated cultural autonomy for the Serbs.
When Raskovic's proposal for cultural autonomy was undermined by Zagreb, another more extreme wing of SDS emerged lead by Milan Babic, the mayor of Knin.
Babic demanded territorial autonomy. Rašković on the other hand maintained his demand for constituent status and cultural autonomy for the Serbs, and stated that he was against political autonomy.
On the day the constitutional amendments were passed by the Croatian parliament (on July 25th 1990), the so-called ‘Serb Assembly’ was held in Srb in Krajina. The Assembly constituted ‘the Serb parliament’ and elected Babić as its president. The gradual shift in demands was reflected in the Declaration on Sovereignty and Autonomy of the Serb People which was adopted by the Assembly in Srb. The declaration stated that the “Serbian people in Croatia have the right to autonomy. The content of that autonomy will depend on either federal or confederal order in Yugoslavia.” The degree of autonomy was therefore linked to the future status of Yugoslavia: “In the conditions of confederal state order of Yugoslavia, the Serbian people in Croatia has the right to full political-territorial autonomy”.In a further move, the Assembly also decided to hold a referendum on the declaration of autonomy.
Although Tuđman stated that, “territorial autonomy for the Serbs is out of the question. We will not allow it” ,the referendum, nevertheless, went ahead on 19 August with majority of the Serb voters supporting the proposal for autonomy.
In the nutshell, West was then saying that not allowing ANY autonomy (not even cultural) was a moderate positon, while asking for autonomy (cultural or later territorial)was extreme position.
Strangly, when it comes to Kosovo, Serbian offers of "substential autonomy" are called extreme, hard-line positon, while not accepting anything short of independance is called moderate position.
That, after swearing that REPUBLICS of forme Yugoslavia cannot be divided (when this was an issue in Croatia, and Bosnia).
"Kosova however has different specifics, there is no parallels that can be drown between them. "
I know. Even during 90's you had a right to use your own language, something that was denied to Croatian Serbs. There were schools in Alabanian language, etc. (you boycotted, but it's another story). Since 1974 you had substantial autonomy, something again that Serbs in Croatia or in Bosnia didn't have. So, don't tell me that
parallels can't be drown between them , because we know that very well.
You had everything that Serbs wanted in Croatia and Bosnia, but was denied to them.
"New entity was created in Bosnia that never exited before. Republika Serbska never heard in my life before has been created."
You are right. It didn't exist. Kosovo did. Why Albanians had autonomy and Serbs in Bosnia didn't? There is very big inequality in how minority is treated in Serbia, compared to Croatia or Bosnia. And you suggest to give Kosovo independance to achieve equality?
I just read some study that shows that there is still gender inequallity even in well-developed countries. Women earn less then men on the same jobs.
Femi has a solution. Increase salaries for men, and ban women from voting. (because men are priviledged from the beginning we should give them even more, while taking more from the women). This should achieve equality.
This is your logic, Femi. Since Albanians are priviledged from the beginning (compared to Croatian Serbs, for instance)they should be given even more, while Serbs in Croatia that didn't have autonomy should have right to speak their language taken away. And Ceku went to fight for that.

I can just picture Vladimir Putin grinning ear to ear, daring the US to unilaterally recognize greater albania. Kind of like Clint Eastwood - "go ahead, make my day". This really would make his day. It would give Russia the excuse it needs to take back Russian populated parts of the former Soviet Union. It would also give him the excuse to recognize Republika Srpska and poke the US right in the eye (which they deserve), because you can bet they will declare independence immediately. Northern Kosovo is under Serbian control, and will remain that way no matter what, it is very clear now. The Russian bear is itching for a fight after years of shameful leadership by Yeltsin. I am happy to see that Mr. Montgomery is coming around slowly. The tide has turned and every day the Serbian position gets stronger, and the albanian one gets weaker, as even Americans like Montgomery are starting to slowly step back from this crazy idea of creating a greater albania illegaly. Even the albanians number one ally is starting to abandon them. Justice is prevailing over power, just like Mr. Kostunica has said.

Mr. Mongomery, Your honesty is most appreciated, and your analysis of the Albanian state of mind regarding the use of violence and terrorism is also very correct, as the Serbs know quite well. They are certainly comfortable in the use of those methods. But all this brings up a critical question for you to consider: Are you willing to reward those who threaten and perform, inplicitly and explicitly, violence and terrorism with fulfilment of their demands? Also, do you think that appeasement with the amputation of Kosovo, handing it to them on a silver platter, will satisfy their appetites for other areas inhabited by Albanians? Also, with the world watching, isn't the precedent set a very dangerous one to international law, the UN Charter and world stability? I got an idea..How about the US and EU develop a backbone and tell the Albanians "no", and tell them that NATO has a way of dealing with violence, a la 1999. Since the Kosovar Albanian position is wrong as a matter of international law, the position must fail.