Analyst: Putin holds the key

OOnce again, I do not believe that Russia will oppose its veto. The powerful USA will make sure to give Russia a few candies so it won't oppose the resolution.

Hosovo will be an independent nation and all the Albanians, after all they went through, desserve it.

I think Russia has realised that the Veto is actually a total win and is completly in it's best interest and by and far the best opportunity of ensuring the recognition of all that IT chooses. The US will be the ones opening the pandora box.

With the Veto and no road map for a solution the US will be forced with the dilema of recognising an ILLEGAL unilateral declaration of a PARTITIONED Southern Kosovo & Metohija - I need to add not necessarily along the Ibar in this messy of messy scenario's but could in fact be much further south - who is to know when this surely will cause the unforseen consequences that Russia has warned against.

or

Back down completly and accept the new world political arena that is no longer only US uni-polar. Beyond that NATO will be facing a huge containment challange just when it needs the resources most in Afghanistan.

If they do recognise - in which case if the US can act this way so too could the Russians - why not ? Sui generis will no longer be applicable and pandora will be the US's fault.

If Judah is saying this openly he is clearly sending out a message that the US is now caught between pillar and post and knows it but I guess Putin won't be helping unless of course the US swollow and put up.

Lets hope the US can finally comprehend what the Russians have been suggesting all along - that things have moved on and a real solution needs to be found that recognises the new geo-political dimension today and not some throw back to the 90's. A real compromise must be found that is acceptable to the real parties concerned and not a "futile & counterproductive" attempt to impose it.

Victor - All hail the great leaders. I think your plan is excellent. The new planet Hosovo will truly enjoy its independence in the league of space nations.

@kate,

you shouldn´t be to harsh with vicky!

just because you or me could write massive and so often repeated nonsense correctly, it doesn´t mean that others have this capacity and capeability.

for me it´s positive enough that marching political realism on south-serbia is making victor a part-time visitor of this homepage.

Raso, you are certainly a Serb to try to ridiculize me by calling me Vicky! This is typical of what the Serbs have done in Kosovo...

I know you don't appreciate the fact that I have sided with the Albanians (the victims) and have always encouraged the independence of Kosovo. This is the only solution, actually, ethnic separation of the two. This is better in my view than ethnic cleansing!

Here we go again. The Albanian side pooh-poohs anything coming out of Moscow as irrelevant and baseless, while constantly relying on US protection.

Serbs rah-rah Moscow's stance as the checkmate against Kosovo independence and the guarantor of its territorial sovereignty.

The EU, while never openly saying they are against givng Kosovo its independence, would happily acquiesce behind a Russian veto, washing their hands of any blame, but happy that they don't have another poor statelet to economically support.

The problem I see is that every side is absolutely positive their side will decisively win in the end and continues to ignore anything else. No contingency plans have been thought of in the event their plans do not work, and no real signs of compromise have been made to mollify the potential Russian veto. As much as I love my country, I'm not counting on the Bush Administration suddenly becoming a beacon of authority in the world, with Russia rolling over like an obedient dog - least of all over something as miniscule to US interests as Kosovo (no offense, but it gets absolutely no attention in the news here, and Americans could really care less if Kosovo goes independence or stays part of Serbia).

It's no surprise Judah said Putin, not Bush, is the keyholder to Kosovo and the region. He saw an opening in the game and moved in. Russia will not use its veto only if:

1. Kosovo independence is watered down so much that independence actually becomes more a burden than a blessing, making other potential breakaway regions think twice about their own separatist movements.

2. Russia becomes THE economic investor in Serbia/Kosovo, shutting out foreign competitors and flooding the Balkan markets with petro and gas dollars

3. Balkan governments (Kosovo, Serbia, and probably Montenegro and Macedonia) agree to become key allies of Moscow before EU preferences.

Russia's not doing this simply out of love for their Orthodox brethren in the Balkans - and Albanians should really realize this because they're the one's talking of the alleged Big Russian Brother thing. They're doing this because they see an opening in the region to move in and marginalize US and Western interests. The whole Kosovo issue has moved so far beyond simple Albanian self-determination and has now become another piece of the Big Power Politics.

On this sole point Tim Judah has been a good student of mine. ONLY the chessmaster himself Vladimir Putin knows for sure what Russia's vote will be.As a fellow judo practitioner I would like to comment on President Putin's cool under pressure demeanor and his leadership in raising Russia to its present elevated economic and political status.It is the single most important country for the long term stability of the European continent.One look at the map of Europe and a child can realize this to be so.Reading between the lines it does appear that Russia is intent on giving the Serbs some wiggle room and negotiating time to try and get maximum benefits for their side but the Serbs should NOT interpret this as a signal to be obstructive but to negotiate constructively.

"but the Serbs should NOT interpret this as a signal to be obstructive but to negotiate constructively."
(luciano, 19 February 2007, 18:45)

I think Luciano, the Serb negotiation team have been only too willing to participate constructively in genuine negotiations but how genuine has the mediator been in creating the right environment? Athisarri has dictated the talks and the failure of both sides to come together is either a total failure of Athisarri's inadequate skills or a purposeful and intended pre-determined result.

You might find these links insightful as to how and why Athisarri has directed the negotiations [sic] the way he has. The link is to The Public International Law & Policy Group (PILPG). The following links are of discussions held to play out scenario's of negotiation in 2002/3.

Kosovo Lessons Learned, March 2002
http://www.publicinternationallaw.org/areas/peacebuilding/simulations/PILPGKosovoMarch2002Report.pdf

Kosovo Lessons Learned, December 2003
http://www.publicinternationallaw.org/areas/peacebuilding/simulations/PILPGKosovoMarch2002Report.pdf


You can find them and the associated negotiation packs for the Serbs, Albanians, and Internationals.

http://www.publicinternationallaw.org/areas/peacebuilding/simulations/#Kosovo

It would seem as ever this is all predetermined from a few years ago - if you look into there financial supporters - hint see The Open Society Institute.

Victor,

We're just ribbing you..Don't take it too seriously..

But yes, they're correct. You're posts seem to repeat themselves, and are out of context many times..

No offence, but if i hear the next weather forecast is calling for rain in Belgrade, i'll definately count on your posts blaming Mladic for floods and locusts coming from God himself...

Enjoy the ride buddy..
Most of us watched the fall of Yugoslavia from the beginning, first hand..And NOT from the CNN headlines...
Let's be constructive

Take care..

Tim Judah is dreaming about unilateral recognition.

Steinmeier: Against a veto in the UN, but also against unilateral recognition

German Foreign Minister Frank Walter Steinmeier said he does not believe the West and Russia will confront in the UN Security Council on the status of Kosmet and expressed hope reason will prevail. He told German daily Handelsbladt that Kosmet must not become a legal model for resolving the same problems in the world. My job is to do everything I can in order that Russia should not put a veto on a solution on Kosmet, he said. He also warned that the countries that might one-sidedly recognize independence of Kosmet should the UN Security Council not make a decision on independence must previously consider what that would mean for the Balkans. Therefore we must invest efforts both in the EU and the Contact Group for Kosmet and also in the UN Security Council, in order to prevent both a veto and a unilateral recognition of Kosmet, Steinmeier assessed.
Radio Srbija

«... i'll definately count on your posts blaming Mladic for floods and locusts coming from God himself... »

Once again, Pietro, you're showing the real face of most Serbs who are in complete denial of what Mladic has accomplished. It is why I repeat because most of the Serb on this forum, not even living in Serbia, and who cannot even speak Serbian properly, think that they know everything of what happened in the Balkans, because they have watched the events on CNN. Make me laugh!

I am on this forum to remind all Serbs in the diaspora, that the community of nations are not going to pass the cloth on the genocide committed by your nation between 1989 and 2000. You can laugh as much as you can on what Serbia has done to over 200 000 people; I WON'T!

"Once again, Pietro, you're showing the real face of most Serbs who are in complete denial of what Mladic has accomplished."

Alright Victor...
Find me ONE Serb who denies Srebrenica..
There's a memorial there, and everyday reminders about the horror there..
Documentaries have been made..

As far as the war went, the Serbs in the diaspora tend to be better informed than Serbs in the homeland..
They learned how to distinguish Western spin (CNN) and Milosevism..

How you call me a denier of Srebrenica, i'll never understand...
Again, my previous comment stays.
Even with humour, you can't see beyond your own perceptions of who the Serbs are...

OOnce again, I do not believe that Russia will oppose its veto. The powerful USA will make sure to give Russia a few candies so it won't oppose the resolution.

Hosovo will be an independent nation and all the Albanians, after all they went through, desserve it.

I think Russia has realised that the Veto is actually a total win and is completly in it's best interest and by and far the best opportunity of ensuring the recognition of all that IT chooses. The US will be the ones opening the pandora box.

With the Veto and no road map for a solution the US will be forced with the dilema of recognising an ILLEGAL unilateral declaration of a PARTITIONED Southern Kosovo & Metohija - I need to add not necessarily along the Ibar in this messy of messy scenario's but could in fact be much further south - who is to know when this surely will cause the unforseen consequences that Russia has warned against.

or

Back down completly and accept the new world political arena that is no longer only US uni-polar. Beyond that NATO will be facing a huge containment challange just when it needs the resources most in Afghanistan.

If they do recognise - in which case if the US can act this way so too could the Russians - why not ? Sui generis will no longer be applicable and pandora will be the US's fault.

If Judah is saying this openly he is clearly sending out a message that the US is now caught between pillar and post and knows it but I guess Putin won't be helping unless of course the US swollow and put up.

Lets hope the US can finally comprehend what the Russians have been suggesting all along - that things have moved on and a real solution needs to be found that recognises the new geo-political dimension today and not some throw back to the 90's. A real compromise must be found that is acceptable to the real parties concerned and not a "futile & counterproductive" attempt to impose it.

Victor - All hail the great leaders. I think your plan is excellent. The new planet Hosovo will truly enjoy its independence in the league of space nations.

@kate,

you shouldn´t be to harsh with vicky!

just because you or me could write massive and so often repeated nonsense correctly, it doesn´t mean that others have this capacity and capeability.

for me it´s positive enough that marching political realism on south-serbia is making victor a part-time visitor of this homepage.

Raso, you are certainly a Serb to try to ridiculize me by calling me Vicky! This is typical of what the Serbs have done in Kosovo...

I know you don't appreciate the fact that I have sided with the Albanians (the victims) and have always encouraged the independence of Kosovo. This is the only solution, actually, ethnic separation of the two. This is better in my view than ethnic cleansing!

Here we go again. The Albanian side pooh-poohs anything coming out of Moscow as irrelevant and baseless, while constantly relying on US protection.

Serbs rah-rah Moscow's stance as the checkmate against Kosovo independence and the guarantor of its territorial sovereignty.

The EU, while never openly saying they are against givng Kosovo its independence, would happily acquiesce behind a Russian veto, washing their hands of any blame, but happy that they don't have another poor statelet to economically support.

The problem I see is that every side is absolutely positive their side will decisively win in the end and continues to ignore anything else. No contingency plans have been thought of in the event their plans do not work, and no real signs of compromise have been made to mollify the potential Russian veto. As much as I love my country, I'm not counting on the Bush Administration suddenly becoming a beacon of authority in the world, with Russia rolling over like an obedient dog - least of all over something as miniscule to US interests as Kosovo (no offense, but it gets absolutely no attention in the news here, and Americans could really care less if Kosovo goes independence or stays part of Serbia).

It's no surprise Judah said Putin, not Bush, is the keyholder to Kosovo and the region. He saw an opening in the game and moved in. Russia will not use its veto only if:

1. Kosovo independence is watered down so much that independence actually becomes more a burden than a blessing, making other potential breakaway regions think twice about their own separatist movements.

2. Russia becomes THE economic investor in Serbia/Kosovo, shutting out foreign competitors and flooding the Balkan markets with petro and gas dollars

3. Balkan governments (Kosovo, Serbia, and probably Montenegro and Macedonia) agree to become key allies of Moscow before EU preferences.

Russia's not doing this simply out of love for their Orthodox brethren in the Balkans - and Albanians should really realize this because they're the one's talking of the alleged Big Russian Brother thing. They're doing this because they see an opening in the region to move in and marginalize US and Western interests. The whole Kosovo issue has moved so far beyond simple Albanian self-determination and has now become another piece of the Big Power Politics.

On this sole point Tim Judah has been a good student of mine. ONLY the chessmaster himself Vladimir Putin knows for sure what Russia's vote will be.As a fellow judo practitioner I would like to comment on President Putin's cool under pressure demeanor and his leadership in raising Russia to its present elevated economic and political status.It is the single most important country for the long term stability of the European continent.One look at the map of Europe and a child can realize this to be so.Reading between the lines it does appear that Russia is intent on giving the Serbs some wiggle room and negotiating time to try and get maximum benefits for their side but the Serbs should NOT interpret this as a signal to be obstructive but to negotiate constructively.

"but the Serbs should NOT interpret this as a signal to be obstructive but to negotiate constructively."
(luciano, 19 February 2007, 18:45)

I think Luciano, the Serb negotiation team have been only too willing to participate constructively in genuine negotiations but how genuine has the mediator been in creating the right environment? Athisarri has dictated the talks and the failure of both sides to come together is either a total failure of Athisarri's inadequate skills or a purposeful and intended pre-determined result.

You might find these links insightful as to how and why Athisarri has directed the negotiations [sic] the way he has. The link is to The Public International Law & Policy Group (PILPG). The following links are of discussions held to play out scenario's of negotiation in 2002/3.

Kosovo Lessons Learned, March 2002
http://www.publicinternationallaw.org/areas/peacebuilding/simulations/PILPGKosovoMarch2002Report.pdf

Kosovo Lessons Learned, December 2003
http://www.publicinternationallaw.org/areas/peacebuilding/simulations/PILPGKosovoMarch2002Report.pdf


You can find them and the associated negotiation packs for the Serbs, Albanians, and Internationals.

http://www.publicinternationallaw.org/areas/peacebuilding/simulations/#Kosovo

It would seem as ever this is all predetermined from a few years ago - if you look into there financial supporters - hint see The Open Society Institute.

Victor,

We're just ribbing you..Don't take it too seriously..

But yes, they're correct. You're posts seem to repeat themselves, and are out of context many times..

No offence, but if i hear the next weather forecast is calling for rain in Belgrade, i'll definately count on your posts blaming Mladic for floods and locusts coming from God himself...

Enjoy the ride buddy..
Most of us watched the fall of Yugoslavia from the beginning, first hand..And NOT from the CNN headlines...
Let's be constructive

Take care..

Tim Judah is dreaming about unilateral recognition.

Steinmeier: Against a veto in the UN, but also against unilateral recognition

German Foreign Minister Frank Walter Steinmeier said he does not believe the West and Russia will confront in the UN Security Council on the status of Kosmet and expressed hope reason will prevail. He told German daily Handelsbladt that Kosmet must not become a legal model for resolving the same problems in the world. My job is to do everything I can in order that Russia should not put a veto on a solution on Kosmet, he said. He also warned that the countries that might one-sidedly recognize independence of Kosmet should the UN Security Council not make a decision on independence must previously consider what that would mean for the Balkans. Therefore we must invest efforts both in the EU and the Contact Group for Kosmet and also in the UN Security Council, in order to prevent both a veto and a unilateral recognition of Kosmet, Steinmeier assessed.
Radio Srbija

«... i'll definately count on your posts blaming Mladic for floods and locusts coming from God himself... »

Once again, Pietro, you're showing the real face of most Serbs who are in complete denial of what Mladic has accomplished. It is why I repeat because most of the Serb on this forum, not even living in Serbia, and who cannot even speak Serbian properly, think that they know everything of what happened in the Balkans, because they have watched the events on CNN. Make me laugh!

I am on this forum to remind all Serbs in the diaspora, that the community of nations are not going to pass the cloth on the genocide committed by your nation between 1989 and 2000. You can laugh as much as you can on what Serbia has done to over 200 000 people; I WON'T!

"Once again, Pietro, you're showing the real face of most Serbs who are in complete denial of what Mladic has accomplished."

Alright Victor...
Find me ONE Serb who denies Srebrenica..
There's a memorial there, and everyday reminders about the horror there..
Documentaries have been made..

As far as the war went, the Serbs in the diaspora tend to be better informed than Serbs in the homeland..
They learned how to distinguish Western spin (CNN) and Milosevism..

How you call me a denier of Srebrenica, i'll never understand...
Again, my previous comment stays.
Even with humour, you can't see beyond your own perceptions of who the Serbs are...