15

Monday, 12.02.2007.

12:44

"Resolution depends on China and Russia"

The UN Security Council will adopt a resolution on Kosovo only if a consensus is reached, Leon Kojen says.

Izvor: FoNet

"Resolution depends on China and Russia" IMAGE SOURCE
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15 Komentari

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Princip, UK

pre 17 godina

Beyond the veto's held by China it is also highly unlikely that this proposal as it stands - without a caveat to 1244 and the obligation of territorial integrity - will be futile in the UN Security Council. The US & UK would not even get close to the 9 affirmatives on the basis of the proposal as it is today - that is what is the real reason for delay and now supposedly more talks even though Athisarri has put is plan forward!!!

branco covic

pre 17 godina

the fact of the matter is that the BIG 2, russia and china are booming powers to reckon with. this is explained by the fact that EU ministers as well as kosovo prime minister seems like they have fire in their asses scrambling and lobbying for the russian and chinese "sweet yes" for the atisharri package, isnt' it gents and ladies? if they are weaklings that they could bully as albanians claim then these people wouldnt care at all. cheers to all

seo

pre 17 godina

with all do respect to all of you who advance thees arguments this is all mute. I am a student of political science and I strongly suggest that you listen to the politicians. that will tell you everything. first the EU politicians are confident that the ahtisaari document or suggestions will pass the SC. Second the kosovar politicians are in fact putting there credibility on the line directly by promising the people that kosovo is going straight trodes independence. and third the Serb politicians are giving very suttle hints that they consider kosovo a lost cause. so in conclusion this is in fact a done deal and this dance has to meet the inevitable conclusion.

luciano

pre 17 godina

Today many Americans agree with the statement that George Bush is one tough COOKY which means strange/crazy-NOT cookie which means something sweet to eat.Did you all notice Al Gore at the Grammy Awards and the Dixie Chicks winning the most awards(These are the girls who called George Bush an idiot while performing in London in 2003 and said that they are embarrassed to be from the same state of Texas as George).As far as the economic relationship between the US and China is concerned there is NO such thing as one being the boss and the other the servant.Many points you make Matthew are economically correct but not all.A lower American dollar is beneficial for American exporters and thus for American workers in those fields.It is not beneficial for the US government if it must borrow money in order to cover its outrageous overspending.A balanced budget on the other hand is beneficial and helps keep interest rates down because the government does not compete with the private sector for capital and thus driving up the interest that must be paid in borrowing those funds.But we have not seen a balanced budget since Playboy Bill Clinton left office.Say what you will about Bill's morals but his economic policies were great for America.China is a market of 1.3BILLION people compared to the US at 300m.China has NO annual budget deficit as compared to Bush's deficit of $400B with total US debt of $9 TRILLION.Total US trade with China is $300B which is third behind US/Canada trade at $500B and US/Mexico at $320.BUT Americans buy around $200B more of Chinese goods than America sells to China and this provides millions of jobs for CHINESE workers .China holds over $1 TRILLION of US obligations and its growing every year.There is NO issue that has the potential to jeopardize this interdependence except maybe the US recognizing Taiwan as de jure independent which is not likely to happen under ANY US administration.The US has NO military options with regards to China and Russia so neither one fears American military power considering the fact they each have tactical nuclear weapons so even talking about military confrontation over ANY issue is STUPID to say the least.IF China and Russia take a tough line on the Kosovo isssue in the UNSC it will be because it is in THEIR interests to do so and not because of US dictate.The US needs China's and Russia's help on the international political scene much more than the other way around.How strong China and Russia uphold Serbia's stance remains to be seen but ANY person on this website or anywhere else for that matter who does not recognize the importance of China and Russia to the stability of the world obviously has a grammar school comprehension of present day realities.

jovan

pre 17 godina

"sebastian":

you are a funny guy!

"blag is bag with his self-rightous long dissertations, and Princip is back with his self-satisfactory ideas.

Guys, remember: Russia has never said it opposes Kosovo independence!

Russia is simply being Russia, trying to get whatever it can from the whole situation.

I predict Russia and China will abstain. "

after reading your comment, I know that you could also take a crystal ball for further "predictions"...

you have eyes to see, but you are blind...

matthew:

I agree with most of what you have written, and as far as I know, it is the largest chinese community in europe that is located in Serbia.

being a partner for Russia and China AND being right in the middle of the CEFTA region...

only a complete idiot would doubt that this is bad for Serbia...

all the other internet historians here: guys, maybe it will be chinese cookies, you will have to swallow when your stomach starts aching... when you realize, what you won´t get...

Matthew

pre 17 godina

"The biggest market for China's goods is USA, therefore China will not veto any resolution but it will abstain. the same goes with Russia ,, but not so much for consumer goods but for other political leverage that US has over Russia. UNCLE Sam is one tough cooky.
(Agim Elshani, 12 February 2007, 14:18)"

UNCLE Sam has bigger fish to fry. The Kosovo issue is getting exactly ZERO coverage in our media here in the US. FoxNews doesn't mention it at all and if Bush were going to make an issue out of Kosovo, the propaganda would start at Fox. Its actually rather odd considering it would be a great "Humanitarian" cause for Bush to support, an example of "peaceful" use of force to bring about a Muslim Democracy. It’s a total win-win for Bush, yet he won't touch it? I'm wondering if that's because he considers it Clinton's war? I honestly do not know.
As far as China and Russia go, I think they are the ones in position to get favors out of the US. The US desperately needs their backing in Iran and North Korea. The US will clearly save up whatever political clout they have to use in those situations and not for Kosovo.
Also, China being the largest holder in the world of US Bonds ensures that we can not break off economic relations with them at this time. At a time when most other countries of the world have shifted their investments to the Euro and not the weak dollar, China is one of the main things keeping the dollar from slipping even further. Also do not underestimate the power of the Chinese lobby here in the US. The Chinese are the one minority to come to the US that actually does incredibly well here. I live on the West Coast, and I can assure you that Asian dominated schools are some of the best in the US and the have a very decent standard of living and are very capable people. Asians are the most likely minorities to have broken the glass ceiling in the US, you see them in the Boardrooms, the Courtrooms and in mansions. China is just RED-HOT right now and a major world super power all to itself. They have no real interests in Kosovo, but if they can use that issue to gain leverage in world politics without risk, yeah, they are going to make what they can out of it. The West clearly can not force China into anything on this issue, if they want China's backing, they are going to have to give them something in return. China also has considerable ties to Serbia. Many may not be aware that many Chinese moved to Belgrade during the Milosevic era so they could vote for Milosevic. These people still live there. So China has much to gain and little to lose by making noise over this issue.
For Russia, clearly this is a total win-win regardless of whether they do anything else. With just a few calculated statements, they have encouraged the anti-EU forces in Serbia. EU membership no longer means jobs and security abroad for its new members. It basically puts its new member states into second class status where they are forced to open their undeveloped markets to established Western European countries who can then basically buy up anything of value, essentially taking capital out of these countries that should be used to develop local economic structures and traditions. Without this type of grass roots movement towards a capitalist ideology, these new EU members will always lag behind their more Western counterparts. Enabling workers to seek employment in the Western nations was the only balance to this. At least the workers were learning first hand how capitalism works and sending home money to be invested locally. Now, all of that will be cut off in the future. The EU currently has NOTHING to offer Serbia except the opportunity to vacation in areas they can not afford. Clearly, Serbia's future at this point is much better served by taking the middle ground in all of this. Working with the EU towards visa relaxation for tourism and education, but still maintaining economic and cultural ties to Russia and China is clearly the best strategy for future compromise. We need to end all discussion on joining NATO and make it clear we will only join it when Russia and China join as well. Silly alliances like NATO have only served to cause warlike counter reactions and domino effects in Europe, its time we move beyond that sort of thing and give the UN some real teeth and an army instead. If this is not done, NATO will effectively serve as the World's police and that organization is clearly bias towards North Atlantic countries. By joining NATO, Serbia is basically giving justification to the argument that NATO had the right to go into Serbia to bomb them without the approval of the UN.
Now whether China and Russia would actually veto anything is another matter altogether. China and Russia are going to oppose American Military might wherever they can. The US when left to its own devices, seems to go beserk bombing people all over the world. Hopefully someone can explain to them that just because you have the largest single military force does not mean you can ignore the wishes of the entire rest of the world.

sebastian

pre 17 godina

blag is bag with his self-rightous long dissertations, and Princip is back with his self-satisfactory ideas.

Guys, remember: Russia has never said it opposes Kosovo independence!

Russia is simply being Russia, trying to get whatever it can from the whole situation.

I predict Russia and China will abstain.

blag

pre 17 godina

agim gets it all wrong.

in fact the economic discussion on this site is not strong and is based on faulty info.

the main issue in the china -america relationship is not the purchase of chinese goods by america.

the main point of contention is

a) the refusal of the chinese to alter the strength of their currency

b) the continuing purchase of american debt by the chinese.

the posters on this site often refer to past economic realities. these things were once true (when america dominated world trade). those days are over. america is now a debtor nation and its trade amounts to 20% of world total. quite simply there are other economic power centers around the world (this is not our father's world anymore).

Princip, UK

pre 17 godina

Agim,

China has said it will do exactly as Russia. Maybe you need to be made aware that the Chinese do not want independence either not just because of Taiwan or Tibet but also the Uighar muslim seperatist's in their Xianjian province. Here's a link on current incidents of 4 Uighars killed in Kashmir last month that you might appreciate as balanced to your views;

[ http://www.islamonline.net/english/news/2001-02/23/article10.shtml ]

I guess you might not be surprised that the Chinese were not at all impressed that 5 of their citizens held at Guantanemo were handed over to no less Albania rather then back to the Chinese authorities when they were released last summer.
[ http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/4979466.stm ]

I guess the Chinese might be working towards the point that the US pay back for interferiing in Xianjian too not just taiwan and Tibet but alos for the bombing of their embassey and killing of their staff in 99.

Also since you point out China needs America for it's goods I think you will find the dependency is equivalent - the US needs cheap Chinese products for it's markets. The Chinese products are in demand because of the low cost not because the US has a special affinity for the Chinese - the US economy would be severly struggling if it blocked Chinese products because they veto - get real!.

I am certain Luciano can inform you on the economic interdependency of US-China trade and the veto is insignificant and unrelated to this matter. Howver, the concept of legalising a seperation of sovereign territory to a ethnic predominantely muslim seperatist group is extremely relevant to the Chinese.

Agim Elshani

pre 17 godina

The biggest market for China's goods is USA, therefore China will not veto any resolution but it will abstain. the same goes with Russia ,, but not so much for consumer goods but for other political leverage that US has over Russia. UNCLE Sam is one tough cooky.

Princip, UK

pre 17 godina

The negotiation team need to push the talks on ther detail of ensuring protection for ALL 350,000 returnees and the financing the return. Also they need to push on what Wisner said regarding obligations to 1244 only a few days ago;

"the Security Council will consider the wishes of the majority in Kosovo AND ACCEPT the obligation to respect the sovereignty of Serbia stipulated by UN Resolution 1244"

- this will be the security council compromise as said by Wisner only a few days ago. Without the addition of territorial integrity I guess the US can not be surprised by a veto (Both Russia & China) but I guess they will make a song and dance about it! But what then if there is a veto? No problem 1244 still stands and maybe the EU can work at implementing it fully utilising the elements of Athisarri for ensuring minority rights to create standards!

blag

pre 17 godina

the russians will not be greater Serbs than Serbs are themselves. russians will protect trhe idea of kosovo in serbia only so strongly as the serbs will want to protect it.

albanians are firmly resolved to accept nothing short of independence, but only because they had first
obtained the US blessing for this position. it is the US which is the evil in this situation.

the only chance for keeping K in Serbia is for the Russians to block the passage of a resolution in the UNSC. but even that may just pave the way to a unilateral recognition of kosovo. but if so, even that is preferable to a UNSC resolution b/c it is easier to challenge legally. easier to justify econoic isolation with. easier to partition kosovo that way... and far easier to break bosnia that way.

perhaps the russians will block and perhaps they will not. we cant be sure either
way. all that we can be sure about is that Putin will not be a greater Serb than Kostunica or Tadic. but if the two of them continue to fight for k, perhaps he will, too. tadic and kostunica need to be ready to do what is necessary. this has moved into very deep waters.

don't go wobbly now. don't negotiate your own rape. don't sign anything. don't believe the bullsh*t EU threats about european future. don't believe the FUD Masters (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt). they do not want to do this the messy way.... but if they want it the messy way... be prepared to give it to them real messy (partition, prolonged legal challenge, economic isolation of kosovo, and break BiH into two pieces)... as we already know the russians will use american actions as justification for thier own actions (as will every other revolutionary group across the world).

at the end of the day i find it hard to believe that the USA will run the risk of upsetting the world order (or at least power politics) for this place called kosovo.

do not think that they have not paid attention to this weekend's words by Putin, Lavrov, and Ivanov. All three used language very reminiscent of the Cold War.

america used to be a great country. but not anymore. it chose to be omnipotent when the cold war ended and broke every international norm that existed. america now lies bleeding across the mid-east (abandoned by everyone but the UK)... and the russians see this and have decided to pick a fight.

in fact they are so weak that they handed off the kosovo ball to germany (but they still call the shots and tell germany how to advance the ball).

blag

pre 17 godina

the russians will not be greater Serbs than Serbs are themselves. russians will protect trhe idea of kosovo in serbia only so strongly as the serbs will want to protect it.

albanians are firmly resolved to accept nothing short of independence, but only because they had first
obtained the US blessing for this position. it is the US which is the evil in this situation.

the only chance for keeping K in Serbia is for the Russians to block the passage of a resolution in the UNSC. but even that may just pave the way to a unilateral recognition of kosovo. but if so, even that is preferable to a UNSC resolution b/c it is easier to challenge legally. easier to justify econoic isolation with. easier to partition kosovo that way... and far easier to break bosnia that way.

perhaps the russians will block and perhaps they will not. we cant be sure either
way. all that we can be sure about is that Putin will not be a greater Serb than Kostunica or Tadic. but if the two of them continue to fight for k, perhaps he will, too. tadic and kostunica need to be ready to do what is necessary. this has moved into very deep waters.

don't go wobbly now. don't negotiate your own rape. don't sign anything. don't believe the bullsh*t EU threats about european future. don't believe the FUD Masters (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt). they do not want to do this the messy way.... but if they want it the messy way... be prepared to give it to them real messy (partition, prolonged legal challenge, economic isolation of kosovo, and break BiH into two pieces)... as we already know the russians will use american actions as justification for thier own actions (as will every other revolutionary group across the world).

at the end of the day i find it hard to believe that the USA will run the risk of upsetting the world order (or at least power politics) for this place called kosovo.

do not think that they have not paid attention to this weekend's words by Putin, Lavrov, and Ivanov. All three used language very reminiscent of the Cold War.

america used to be a great country. but not anymore. it chose to be omnipotent when the cold war ended and broke every international norm that existed. america now lies bleeding across the mid-east (abandoned by everyone but the UK)... and the russians see this and have decided to pick a fight.

in fact they are so weak that they handed off the kosovo ball to germany (but they still call the shots and tell germany how to advance the ball).

Princip, UK

pre 17 godina

The negotiation team need to push the talks on ther detail of ensuring protection for ALL 350,000 returnees and the financing the return. Also they need to push on what Wisner said regarding obligations to 1244 only a few days ago;

"the Security Council will consider the wishes of the majority in Kosovo AND ACCEPT the obligation to respect the sovereignty of Serbia stipulated by UN Resolution 1244"

- this will be the security council compromise as said by Wisner only a few days ago. Without the addition of territorial integrity I guess the US can not be surprised by a veto (Both Russia & China) but I guess they will make a song and dance about it! But what then if there is a veto? No problem 1244 still stands and maybe the EU can work at implementing it fully utilising the elements of Athisarri for ensuring minority rights to create standards!

Agim Elshani

pre 17 godina

The biggest market for China's goods is USA, therefore China will not veto any resolution but it will abstain. the same goes with Russia ,, but not so much for consumer goods but for other political leverage that US has over Russia. UNCLE Sam is one tough cooky.

Princip, UK

pre 17 godina

Agim,

China has said it will do exactly as Russia. Maybe you need to be made aware that the Chinese do not want independence either not just because of Taiwan or Tibet but also the Uighar muslim seperatist's in their Xianjian province. Here's a link on current incidents of 4 Uighars killed in Kashmir last month that you might appreciate as balanced to your views;

[ http://www.islamonline.net/english/news/2001-02/23/article10.shtml ]

I guess you might not be surprised that the Chinese were not at all impressed that 5 of their citizens held at Guantanemo were handed over to no less Albania rather then back to the Chinese authorities when they were released last summer.
[ http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/4979466.stm ]

I guess the Chinese might be working towards the point that the US pay back for interferiing in Xianjian too not just taiwan and Tibet but alos for the bombing of their embassey and killing of their staff in 99.

Also since you point out China needs America for it's goods I think you will find the dependency is equivalent - the US needs cheap Chinese products for it's markets. The Chinese products are in demand because of the low cost not because the US has a special affinity for the Chinese - the US economy would be severly struggling if it blocked Chinese products because they veto - get real!.

I am certain Luciano can inform you on the economic interdependency of US-China trade and the veto is insignificant and unrelated to this matter. Howver, the concept of legalising a seperation of sovereign territory to a ethnic predominantely muslim seperatist group is extremely relevant to the Chinese.

blag

pre 17 godina

agim gets it all wrong.

in fact the economic discussion on this site is not strong and is based on faulty info.

the main issue in the china -america relationship is not the purchase of chinese goods by america.

the main point of contention is

a) the refusal of the chinese to alter the strength of their currency

b) the continuing purchase of american debt by the chinese.

the posters on this site often refer to past economic realities. these things were once true (when america dominated world trade). those days are over. america is now a debtor nation and its trade amounts to 20% of world total. quite simply there are other economic power centers around the world (this is not our father's world anymore).

sebastian

pre 17 godina

blag is bag with his self-rightous long dissertations, and Princip is back with his self-satisfactory ideas.

Guys, remember: Russia has never said it opposes Kosovo independence!

Russia is simply being Russia, trying to get whatever it can from the whole situation.

I predict Russia and China will abstain.

Matthew

pre 17 godina

"The biggest market for China's goods is USA, therefore China will not veto any resolution but it will abstain. the same goes with Russia ,, but not so much for consumer goods but for other political leverage that US has over Russia. UNCLE Sam is one tough cooky.
(Agim Elshani, 12 February 2007, 14:18)"

UNCLE Sam has bigger fish to fry. The Kosovo issue is getting exactly ZERO coverage in our media here in the US. FoxNews doesn't mention it at all and if Bush were going to make an issue out of Kosovo, the propaganda would start at Fox. Its actually rather odd considering it would be a great "Humanitarian" cause for Bush to support, an example of "peaceful" use of force to bring about a Muslim Democracy. It’s a total win-win for Bush, yet he won't touch it? I'm wondering if that's because he considers it Clinton's war? I honestly do not know.
As far as China and Russia go, I think they are the ones in position to get favors out of the US. The US desperately needs their backing in Iran and North Korea. The US will clearly save up whatever political clout they have to use in those situations and not for Kosovo.
Also, China being the largest holder in the world of US Bonds ensures that we can not break off economic relations with them at this time. At a time when most other countries of the world have shifted their investments to the Euro and not the weak dollar, China is one of the main things keeping the dollar from slipping even further. Also do not underestimate the power of the Chinese lobby here in the US. The Chinese are the one minority to come to the US that actually does incredibly well here. I live on the West Coast, and I can assure you that Asian dominated schools are some of the best in the US and the have a very decent standard of living and are very capable people. Asians are the most likely minorities to have broken the glass ceiling in the US, you see them in the Boardrooms, the Courtrooms and in mansions. China is just RED-HOT right now and a major world super power all to itself. They have no real interests in Kosovo, but if they can use that issue to gain leverage in world politics without risk, yeah, they are going to make what they can out of it. The West clearly can not force China into anything on this issue, if they want China's backing, they are going to have to give them something in return. China also has considerable ties to Serbia. Many may not be aware that many Chinese moved to Belgrade during the Milosevic era so they could vote for Milosevic. These people still live there. So China has much to gain and little to lose by making noise over this issue.
For Russia, clearly this is a total win-win regardless of whether they do anything else. With just a few calculated statements, they have encouraged the anti-EU forces in Serbia. EU membership no longer means jobs and security abroad for its new members. It basically puts its new member states into second class status where they are forced to open their undeveloped markets to established Western European countries who can then basically buy up anything of value, essentially taking capital out of these countries that should be used to develop local economic structures and traditions. Without this type of grass roots movement towards a capitalist ideology, these new EU members will always lag behind their more Western counterparts. Enabling workers to seek employment in the Western nations was the only balance to this. At least the workers were learning first hand how capitalism works and sending home money to be invested locally. Now, all of that will be cut off in the future. The EU currently has NOTHING to offer Serbia except the opportunity to vacation in areas they can not afford. Clearly, Serbia's future at this point is much better served by taking the middle ground in all of this. Working with the EU towards visa relaxation for tourism and education, but still maintaining economic and cultural ties to Russia and China is clearly the best strategy for future compromise. We need to end all discussion on joining NATO and make it clear we will only join it when Russia and China join as well. Silly alliances like NATO have only served to cause warlike counter reactions and domino effects in Europe, its time we move beyond that sort of thing and give the UN some real teeth and an army instead. If this is not done, NATO will effectively serve as the World's police and that organization is clearly bias towards North Atlantic countries. By joining NATO, Serbia is basically giving justification to the argument that NATO had the right to go into Serbia to bomb them without the approval of the UN.
Now whether China and Russia would actually veto anything is another matter altogether. China and Russia are going to oppose American Military might wherever they can. The US when left to its own devices, seems to go beserk bombing people all over the world. Hopefully someone can explain to them that just because you have the largest single military force does not mean you can ignore the wishes of the entire rest of the world.

jovan

pre 17 godina

"sebastian":

you are a funny guy!

"blag is bag with his self-rightous long dissertations, and Princip is back with his self-satisfactory ideas.

Guys, remember: Russia has never said it opposes Kosovo independence!

Russia is simply being Russia, trying to get whatever it can from the whole situation.

I predict Russia and China will abstain. "

after reading your comment, I know that you could also take a crystal ball for further "predictions"...

you have eyes to see, but you are blind...

matthew:

I agree with most of what you have written, and as far as I know, it is the largest chinese community in europe that is located in Serbia.

being a partner for Russia and China AND being right in the middle of the CEFTA region...

only a complete idiot would doubt that this is bad for Serbia...

all the other internet historians here: guys, maybe it will be chinese cookies, you will have to swallow when your stomach starts aching... when you realize, what you won´t get...

luciano

pre 17 godina

Today many Americans agree with the statement that George Bush is one tough COOKY which means strange/crazy-NOT cookie which means something sweet to eat.Did you all notice Al Gore at the Grammy Awards and the Dixie Chicks winning the most awards(These are the girls who called George Bush an idiot while performing in London in 2003 and said that they are embarrassed to be from the same state of Texas as George).As far as the economic relationship between the US and China is concerned there is NO such thing as one being the boss and the other the servant.Many points you make Matthew are economically correct but not all.A lower American dollar is beneficial for American exporters and thus for American workers in those fields.It is not beneficial for the US government if it must borrow money in order to cover its outrageous overspending.A balanced budget on the other hand is beneficial and helps keep interest rates down because the government does not compete with the private sector for capital and thus driving up the interest that must be paid in borrowing those funds.But we have not seen a balanced budget since Playboy Bill Clinton left office.Say what you will about Bill's morals but his economic policies were great for America.China is a market of 1.3BILLION people compared to the US at 300m.China has NO annual budget deficit as compared to Bush's deficit of $400B with total US debt of $9 TRILLION.Total US trade with China is $300B which is third behind US/Canada trade at $500B and US/Mexico at $320.BUT Americans buy around $200B more of Chinese goods than America sells to China and this provides millions of jobs for CHINESE workers .China holds over $1 TRILLION of US obligations and its growing every year.There is NO issue that has the potential to jeopardize this interdependence except maybe the US recognizing Taiwan as de jure independent which is not likely to happen under ANY US administration.The US has NO military options with regards to China and Russia so neither one fears American military power considering the fact they each have tactical nuclear weapons so even talking about military confrontation over ANY issue is STUPID to say the least.IF China and Russia take a tough line on the Kosovo isssue in the UNSC it will be because it is in THEIR interests to do so and not because of US dictate.The US needs China's and Russia's help on the international political scene much more than the other way around.How strong China and Russia uphold Serbia's stance remains to be seen but ANY person on this website or anywhere else for that matter who does not recognize the importance of China and Russia to the stability of the world obviously has a grammar school comprehension of present day realities.

seo

pre 17 godina

with all do respect to all of you who advance thees arguments this is all mute. I am a student of political science and I strongly suggest that you listen to the politicians. that will tell you everything. first the EU politicians are confident that the ahtisaari document or suggestions will pass the SC. Second the kosovar politicians are in fact putting there credibility on the line directly by promising the people that kosovo is going straight trodes independence. and third the Serb politicians are giving very suttle hints that they consider kosovo a lost cause. so in conclusion this is in fact a done deal and this dance has to meet the inevitable conclusion.

branco covic

pre 17 godina

the fact of the matter is that the BIG 2, russia and china are booming powers to reckon with. this is explained by the fact that EU ministers as well as kosovo prime minister seems like they have fire in their asses scrambling and lobbying for the russian and chinese "sweet yes" for the atisharri package, isnt' it gents and ladies? if they are weaklings that they could bully as albanians claim then these people wouldnt care at all. cheers to all

Princip, UK

pre 17 godina

Beyond the veto's held by China it is also highly unlikely that this proposal as it stands - without a caveat to 1244 and the obligation of territorial integrity - will be futile in the UN Security Council. The US & UK would not even get close to the 9 affirmatives on the basis of the proposal as it is today - that is what is the real reason for delay and now supposedly more talks even though Athisarri has put is plan forward!!!

blag

pre 17 godina

the russians will not be greater Serbs than Serbs are themselves. russians will protect trhe idea of kosovo in serbia only so strongly as the serbs will want to protect it.

albanians are firmly resolved to accept nothing short of independence, but only because they had first
obtained the US blessing for this position. it is the US which is the evil in this situation.

the only chance for keeping K in Serbia is for the Russians to block the passage of a resolution in the UNSC. but even that may just pave the way to a unilateral recognition of kosovo. but if so, even that is preferable to a UNSC resolution b/c it is easier to challenge legally. easier to justify econoic isolation with. easier to partition kosovo that way... and far easier to break bosnia that way.

perhaps the russians will block and perhaps they will not. we cant be sure either
way. all that we can be sure about is that Putin will not be a greater Serb than Kostunica or Tadic. but if the two of them continue to fight for k, perhaps he will, too. tadic and kostunica need to be ready to do what is necessary. this has moved into very deep waters.

don't go wobbly now. don't negotiate your own rape. don't sign anything. don't believe the bullsh*t EU threats about european future. don't believe the FUD Masters (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt). they do not want to do this the messy way.... but if they want it the messy way... be prepared to give it to them real messy (partition, prolonged legal challenge, economic isolation of kosovo, and break BiH into two pieces)... as we already know the russians will use american actions as justification for thier own actions (as will every other revolutionary group across the world).

at the end of the day i find it hard to believe that the USA will run the risk of upsetting the world order (or at least power politics) for this place called kosovo.

do not think that they have not paid attention to this weekend's words by Putin, Lavrov, and Ivanov. All three used language very reminiscent of the Cold War.

america used to be a great country. but not anymore. it chose to be omnipotent when the cold war ended and broke every international norm that existed. america now lies bleeding across the mid-east (abandoned by everyone but the UK)... and the russians see this and have decided to pick a fight.

in fact they are so weak that they handed off the kosovo ball to germany (but they still call the shots and tell germany how to advance the ball).

Princip, UK

pre 17 godina

The negotiation team need to push the talks on ther detail of ensuring protection for ALL 350,000 returnees and the financing the return. Also they need to push on what Wisner said regarding obligations to 1244 only a few days ago;

"the Security Council will consider the wishes of the majority in Kosovo AND ACCEPT the obligation to respect the sovereignty of Serbia stipulated by UN Resolution 1244"

- this will be the security council compromise as said by Wisner only a few days ago. Without the addition of territorial integrity I guess the US can not be surprised by a veto (Both Russia & China) but I guess they will make a song and dance about it! But what then if there is a veto? No problem 1244 still stands and maybe the EU can work at implementing it fully utilising the elements of Athisarri for ensuring minority rights to create standards!

Agim Elshani

pre 17 godina

The biggest market for China's goods is USA, therefore China will not veto any resolution but it will abstain. the same goes with Russia ,, but not so much for consumer goods but for other political leverage that US has over Russia. UNCLE Sam is one tough cooky.

Princip, UK

pre 17 godina

Agim,

China has said it will do exactly as Russia. Maybe you need to be made aware that the Chinese do not want independence either not just because of Taiwan or Tibet but also the Uighar muslim seperatist's in their Xianjian province. Here's a link on current incidents of 4 Uighars killed in Kashmir last month that you might appreciate as balanced to your views;

[ http://www.islamonline.net/english/news/2001-02/23/article10.shtml ]

I guess you might not be surprised that the Chinese were not at all impressed that 5 of their citizens held at Guantanemo were handed over to no less Albania rather then back to the Chinese authorities when they were released last summer.
[ http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/4979466.stm ]

I guess the Chinese might be working towards the point that the US pay back for interferiing in Xianjian too not just taiwan and Tibet but alos for the bombing of their embassey and killing of their staff in 99.

Also since you point out China needs America for it's goods I think you will find the dependency is equivalent - the US needs cheap Chinese products for it's markets. The Chinese products are in demand because of the low cost not because the US has a special affinity for the Chinese - the US economy would be severly struggling if it blocked Chinese products because they veto - get real!.

I am certain Luciano can inform you on the economic interdependency of US-China trade and the veto is insignificant and unrelated to this matter. Howver, the concept of legalising a seperation of sovereign territory to a ethnic predominantely muslim seperatist group is extremely relevant to the Chinese.

blag

pre 17 godina

agim gets it all wrong.

in fact the economic discussion on this site is not strong and is based on faulty info.

the main issue in the china -america relationship is not the purchase of chinese goods by america.

the main point of contention is

a) the refusal of the chinese to alter the strength of their currency

b) the continuing purchase of american debt by the chinese.

the posters on this site often refer to past economic realities. these things were once true (when america dominated world trade). those days are over. america is now a debtor nation and its trade amounts to 20% of world total. quite simply there are other economic power centers around the world (this is not our father's world anymore).

sebastian

pre 17 godina

blag is bag with his self-rightous long dissertations, and Princip is back with his self-satisfactory ideas.

Guys, remember: Russia has never said it opposes Kosovo independence!

Russia is simply being Russia, trying to get whatever it can from the whole situation.

I predict Russia and China will abstain.

Matthew

pre 17 godina

"The biggest market for China's goods is USA, therefore China will not veto any resolution but it will abstain. the same goes with Russia ,, but not so much for consumer goods but for other political leverage that US has over Russia. UNCLE Sam is one tough cooky.
(Agim Elshani, 12 February 2007, 14:18)"

UNCLE Sam has bigger fish to fry. The Kosovo issue is getting exactly ZERO coverage in our media here in the US. FoxNews doesn't mention it at all and if Bush were going to make an issue out of Kosovo, the propaganda would start at Fox. Its actually rather odd considering it would be a great "Humanitarian" cause for Bush to support, an example of "peaceful" use of force to bring about a Muslim Democracy. It’s a total win-win for Bush, yet he won't touch it? I'm wondering if that's because he considers it Clinton's war? I honestly do not know.
As far as China and Russia go, I think they are the ones in position to get favors out of the US. The US desperately needs their backing in Iran and North Korea. The US will clearly save up whatever political clout they have to use in those situations and not for Kosovo.
Also, China being the largest holder in the world of US Bonds ensures that we can not break off economic relations with them at this time. At a time when most other countries of the world have shifted their investments to the Euro and not the weak dollar, China is one of the main things keeping the dollar from slipping even further. Also do not underestimate the power of the Chinese lobby here in the US. The Chinese are the one minority to come to the US that actually does incredibly well here. I live on the West Coast, and I can assure you that Asian dominated schools are some of the best in the US and the have a very decent standard of living and are very capable people. Asians are the most likely minorities to have broken the glass ceiling in the US, you see them in the Boardrooms, the Courtrooms and in mansions. China is just RED-HOT right now and a major world super power all to itself. They have no real interests in Kosovo, but if they can use that issue to gain leverage in world politics without risk, yeah, they are going to make what they can out of it. The West clearly can not force China into anything on this issue, if they want China's backing, they are going to have to give them something in return. China also has considerable ties to Serbia. Many may not be aware that many Chinese moved to Belgrade during the Milosevic era so they could vote for Milosevic. These people still live there. So China has much to gain and little to lose by making noise over this issue.
For Russia, clearly this is a total win-win regardless of whether they do anything else. With just a few calculated statements, they have encouraged the anti-EU forces in Serbia. EU membership no longer means jobs and security abroad for its new members. It basically puts its new member states into second class status where they are forced to open their undeveloped markets to established Western European countries who can then basically buy up anything of value, essentially taking capital out of these countries that should be used to develop local economic structures and traditions. Without this type of grass roots movement towards a capitalist ideology, these new EU members will always lag behind their more Western counterparts. Enabling workers to seek employment in the Western nations was the only balance to this. At least the workers were learning first hand how capitalism works and sending home money to be invested locally. Now, all of that will be cut off in the future. The EU currently has NOTHING to offer Serbia except the opportunity to vacation in areas they can not afford. Clearly, Serbia's future at this point is much better served by taking the middle ground in all of this. Working with the EU towards visa relaxation for tourism and education, but still maintaining economic and cultural ties to Russia and China is clearly the best strategy for future compromise. We need to end all discussion on joining NATO and make it clear we will only join it when Russia and China join as well. Silly alliances like NATO have only served to cause warlike counter reactions and domino effects in Europe, its time we move beyond that sort of thing and give the UN some real teeth and an army instead. If this is not done, NATO will effectively serve as the World's police and that organization is clearly bias towards North Atlantic countries. By joining NATO, Serbia is basically giving justification to the argument that NATO had the right to go into Serbia to bomb them without the approval of the UN.
Now whether China and Russia would actually veto anything is another matter altogether. China and Russia are going to oppose American Military might wherever they can. The US when left to its own devices, seems to go beserk bombing people all over the world. Hopefully someone can explain to them that just because you have the largest single military force does not mean you can ignore the wishes of the entire rest of the world.

jovan

pre 17 godina

"sebastian":

you are a funny guy!

"blag is bag with his self-rightous long dissertations, and Princip is back with his self-satisfactory ideas.

Guys, remember: Russia has never said it opposes Kosovo independence!

Russia is simply being Russia, trying to get whatever it can from the whole situation.

I predict Russia and China will abstain. "

after reading your comment, I know that you could also take a crystal ball for further "predictions"...

you have eyes to see, but you are blind...

matthew:

I agree with most of what you have written, and as far as I know, it is the largest chinese community in europe that is located in Serbia.

being a partner for Russia and China AND being right in the middle of the CEFTA region...

only a complete idiot would doubt that this is bad for Serbia...

all the other internet historians here: guys, maybe it will be chinese cookies, you will have to swallow when your stomach starts aching... when you realize, what you won´t get...

luciano

pre 17 godina

Today many Americans agree with the statement that George Bush is one tough COOKY which means strange/crazy-NOT cookie which means something sweet to eat.Did you all notice Al Gore at the Grammy Awards and the Dixie Chicks winning the most awards(These are the girls who called George Bush an idiot while performing in London in 2003 and said that they are embarrassed to be from the same state of Texas as George).As far as the economic relationship between the US and China is concerned there is NO such thing as one being the boss and the other the servant.Many points you make Matthew are economically correct but not all.A lower American dollar is beneficial for American exporters and thus for American workers in those fields.It is not beneficial for the US government if it must borrow money in order to cover its outrageous overspending.A balanced budget on the other hand is beneficial and helps keep interest rates down because the government does not compete with the private sector for capital and thus driving up the interest that must be paid in borrowing those funds.But we have not seen a balanced budget since Playboy Bill Clinton left office.Say what you will about Bill's morals but his economic policies were great for America.China is a market of 1.3BILLION people compared to the US at 300m.China has NO annual budget deficit as compared to Bush's deficit of $400B with total US debt of $9 TRILLION.Total US trade with China is $300B which is third behind US/Canada trade at $500B and US/Mexico at $320.BUT Americans buy around $200B more of Chinese goods than America sells to China and this provides millions of jobs for CHINESE workers .China holds over $1 TRILLION of US obligations and its growing every year.There is NO issue that has the potential to jeopardize this interdependence except maybe the US recognizing Taiwan as de jure independent which is not likely to happen under ANY US administration.The US has NO military options with regards to China and Russia so neither one fears American military power considering the fact they each have tactical nuclear weapons so even talking about military confrontation over ANY issue is STUPID to say the least.IF China and Russia take a tough line on the Kosovo isssue in the UNSC it will be because it is in THEIR interests to do so and not because of US dictate.The US needs China's and Russia's help on the international political scene much more than the other way around.How strong China and Russia uphold Serbia's stance remains to be seen but ANY person on this website or anywhere else for that matter who does not recognize the importance of China and Russia to the stability of the world obviously has a grammar school comprehension of present day realities.

seo

pre 17 godina

with all do respect to all of you who advance thees arguments this is all mute. I am a student of political science and I strongly suggest that you listen to the politicians. that will tell you everything. first the EU politicians are confident that the ahtisaari document or suggestions will pass the SC. Second the kosovar politicians are in fact putting there credibility on the line directly by promising the people that kosovo is going straight trodes independence. and third the Serb politicians are giving very suttle hints that they consider kosovo a lost cause. so in conclusion this is in fact a done deal and this dance has to meet the inevitable conclusion.

branco covic

pre 17 godina

the fact of the matter is that the BIG 2, russia and china are booming powers to reckon with. this is explained by the fact that EU ministers as well as kosovo prime minister seems like they have fire in their asses scrambling and lobbying for the russian and chinese "sweet yes" for the atisharri package, isnt' it gents and ladies? if they are weaklings that they could bully as albanians claim then these people wouldnt care at all. cheers to all

Princip, UK

pre 17 godina

Beyond the veto's held by China it is also highly unlikely that this proposal as it stands - without a caveat to 1244 and the obligation of territorial integrity - will be futile in the UN Security Council. The US & UK would not even get close to the 9 affirmatives on the basis of the proposal as it is today - that is what is the real reason for delay and now supposedly more talks even though Athisarri has put is plan forward!!!