Ruecker: Timely solution for Kosovo

How do you define "pre-1999 status"? Even Ruecker himself did not attempt to clarify. Because he can't in reality. Does "pre-1999 status" refer to direct rule from Belgrade? Which is different from what Belgrade is proposing now in its concept of maximum autonomy for Kosovo. No, Mr Ruecker. The whole thing is far from clear. You only have to revisit the open disagreement between Russia and US/UK in the UN to know that the Contact Group is far from united in reality.

I really hope peace and friendship will eventually come to the Balkans. So that I can visit this extraordinary region. But true peace and friedship cannot be dictated from outside. It must come from the parties within the Balkans themselves.

As "the parties within the Balkans" are not able to sort out the Kosovo question between themselves I suggest that outsiders arm both sides adequately, secure absolute safe havens for all civilians and let the others find the solution violently. The army that capitulates will bear the responsibility of state of things for next 200 years, after which a revanche opportunity will be organized in case populus so demands.
This is the only way to come to a solution both sides accept.

these guys (ruecker, et al) should all be arrested for incompetence. they say nothing. they double speak. they lie. they have led those people down a garden path to failure. at least when you look at a serb you know what he wants (autonomy).... and when you look at an albanian you know what he wants (indep). these guys are sickening.

Pre-1999 status referrs to Kosovo as part of Serbia. That will never happen again. Ahtisaari's package, while perhaps not specifically using the word independence, will specifically point out the end of Serb sovreignty over the province. That is the most important thing for the Albanians. Get Serbia to have absolutely no claim on paper as well. Then independence will be recognized on a bilateral basis until its time to vote in the General Assembly. One of the guiding principles of the Contact Group as well as many Western diplomats, has been that the final status must be acceptable to the people who live in the province...namely the two million albanians who comprise 97% of the population there. So like Ruecker said: Draw your own conclusions as to what the final status will look like.

The contact group should add one more sacred cow/principle to their list: Thou shalt not take territory from a sovereign state and redraw international borders. Perhaps this is superfluous since we all know that international law will take precedence or are some members of the contact group happy to make an ass of the law ?

Sidi as you may well know populations come and go particularly in the Balkans. Not so long ago (50 to 60 years) Serbs were the majority population in Kosovo. I have some empathy with your situation before WWII there were by some estimates 2 million Serbs in Krajina, a disputed region of Croatia back in the 90’s. During operation storm, in which the US acquiesced, the remaining Serbs, a quarter of a million, were ethnically cleansed from Krajina. There are now roughly a few hundred Serbs left in Croatia. My point is that the will of 2 million Kosovo Albanians living in Serbia should not decide the future for the region because a) the population is fluid and at present Serbs are under represented in the region many too frightened to return to their homes. Secondly, most of the population in Kosovo is under 25 and are likely to leave the region because of it’s poor economic potential and b) what about the will of the Serbian population living in Serbia shouldn’t they have a say in what happens to their territory?

If the west didn't believe there may be a way to preserve some of the Serbia's territorial integrity, they would have announced the Kosmet independence already.

I believe this is the last opportunity for Serbia to show the world that the Milosevic era is gone and democracy has prevailed for Serbs and Albanians in Kosmet.

If radicals win, Kosmet will certainly earn an unconditional independence, however, if democratic forces win there is a chance to preserve some of Serbia's territorial integrity.

Naturally, it will be hard to convince our Albanian friends to stay within Serbia's union, however, if the presure comes from the west, including the one's who are advocating Kosmet's independence, it can be done.

So, it's very much in Serbia's interest and in the interest of Kosmet's/Kosova's Serbs, to show the world that we are democratic. That's the only way there can be a compromise.

Some posters here are right to some extent. Kosmet/Kosova may never return to its pre-1999. But they forget that Serbia has utterly changed since 1999.

And I prsonally believe that we can live together with Kosmet's Albanians if we share the same democratic ideal of joining the international community, Nato, EU, etc.

Serbia ought to make an example by treating Presevo Albanians as any other citizen in the bounderies of Serbia should be treated.

The boycot, the Gendarmerie, and the underdevelopment of Albanian populated aereas in Serbia, certainly do not look good in the eyes of International community.

Presevo walley is a mirror of how Albanians in Kosmet/Kosova may be treated if they are to stay in the Union.

So, Belgrade politicians ought to do something fast about it, in order to achieve a win win sollution.

And some of you Serbian posters who act as if you want the land but not the people, you are doing a big favor to extremists such as Sidi.

Kosmet can be maintained in Serbia only if we show care, understanding, and humblness for these suffering people and our suffering Serbian people in Kosmet/Kosova.

Marry christmas to our Kosmet, Kosova friends.

"Gsuar Krishtlandjet,"

Boris,

I think that unmik has failed in its mission because in the last 7 yrs they have wasted time and money. This should not be taking this long. They made the serbs and albanians have negotiations hahahah. Every serb and albanian knew that both sides would of came to an agreement. Its all a game right now. Heres the real story Iran. Yep thats right Iran america needs russia to help them with Iran and russia is not. so America is going to give kosovo what they want because they know russia will not like this. So russia can help america and break their deals with Iran on oil or let kosovo be free and still keep their deals. Thats whats happening right now. So bottom line the UN is a joke!

@Sidi:

you should rather argue on the basis of rationality than on your wishful thinking. come back to see reason, instead of repeating on and on this flapdoodle of "2 millions can´t be stopped" bla-blah...

"we will fight till death for independence" and those lines above seem to me like the desperate try to blether around in order to call in for independence..

not returning to the pre-99 status simply means,not returning to the situation that was left by Milosevic, namely KosMet without autonomy.
every other interpretation is far from reason. you should know that, in order not to be disappointed in the end, what I think you will defintely be.
But then, I am convinced of that, the international community will be paying attention on the behaviour of the Kosvo-albanians. And that will be the moment, where you will be exposed as a community incapable of bringing peace and prosperity to the region.

thanks to all the others here for their ideas, arguments and opinions, merry x-mas!

to sidi: the outcome you specify is unacceptable for serbia and therefore a russian veto is likely. and i ask yet again... what is the legal mechanism to end serb sovreignty?

that leaves you a unilateral declaration of independence... which means:

-serb exodus from the south
-reciprocal declaration from the north (effective partition).
-serb economic embargo
-your biggest neighbor and the one you rely most for thrufare not recognizing you and constantly seeking ways to destabilize you
-no recognition/ drawn out recognition from a number of other states.

Sidi

I don't think your definition of "pre-1999 status" is accurate. It cannot refer to Serbia's sovereignty over Kosovo as this would directly contradict UN Resolution 1244. And the Contract Group has always supported UN policy, otherwise they wouldn't have supported UNMIK and the UN appointed Athisaari. If your interpretation is correct, Russia would definitely not have supported this Contact Group position.

But Sidi if one of the members of the security council does not agree then you can kiss that contact group reccomendation goodbye. I think whatever is decided will be good for both sides even if they don't like it all. So for those who read this forums come up with bright idea of causing an insurrection in Kosovo be prepared to fight because NATO is not going to allow conflict. They have already made agreements with Serbia to move troops rapidly to Kosovo if needed. I don't think they will be coming to the rescue of the albaninans this time. So for those who read this and think i am a serb you had better think again. Merry Xmas all.

Blag, it is clear that you fancy yourself an astute political analyst, but what think of the fact that the International Red Cross, as we speak, is preparing for an exodus of at least 70,000 Serbs? Might that be a strong indication of the future status of Kosovo?

arben, i'm just a regular guy writing logical things; disregarding lazy western news reports; and keeping emotions out of it. my take on the red cross thing:

a number of things took place since these plans were written 6 months ago... and in that time the conventional thinking has changed (i would place greater importance on last week's agreement to provide NATO safe passage to kosovo thru serbia... obviously to quell riots).

the west's plan was always to force-feed kosovo independence to serbia and discount the opposition by telling serbia it could not enter the EU until it capitulated.

however, much has changed:

a) the EU has closed off entry to serbia for the next decade (taking away a big carrot).

b) serbia has done very well bringing in foreign direct investment and keeping inflation in check (allowing it to chart an independent financial path not beholden to traditional western tools of control: the world bank and IMF).

c) kostunica hardened his resolve and called their bluff by telling them he'd rather keep kosovo then gain entry to the EU and NATO (seeing serbia'serbia's medium term future outside of those two institutions).

c) the new serbian constitution is really a problem for kosovo independence in that it outlaws any recognition of an independent kosovo (meaning effective embargo particularly on thrufare whicj kosovo needs to export cheaply).

d) the unexpected russian veto threat and the overall serbian diplomatic momentum it has gained in the past 6 months.

e) the weakening american position worldwide - particularly the quagmire in iraq; the definace of north korea and iran (all of which were supposed to have been solved by now); and the conitnued aggresiveness of a pissed-off russia fueled with petro-dollars) looking to reassert itself and counter american policy.

f) a divided american government presided over by a lame duck president who still hasn't put into place a u.n. ambassador

g) the inability of the west's darling (tadic... who is softer on kosovo) to win a majority... or even a plurality in serbia.

h) kostunica's disinterest in running for continued political office... making him kinda untouchable. he is not very interested in populartity... but in doing the right thing.


these are notable developments. i suggest everyone go to the ICG website (the biggest proponent's of kosovo independence these last 7 years (wesley clark, atasharri; madeline albright; abromovitz, etc) and read last week's report. it is not optimistic (whereas they have been very arrognnat the past 7 years):

http://www.crisisgroup.org

(the kosovo report is right on the front page)

one more thing...i am also sickened by the post-1999 serbian timidity to stand up to the west. it is easy for me b/c i am here and didn't get bombed... but i didn't make the problem either. so i write to gives serbs a needed good hard kick in the ass to snap them out of their funk.

lookbeforeyouleap

were do you get your figures? Serbs were never a majority in Kosovo. During the 50s and 60s serbs tried in different illegal ways to become a majority but failed.

To Blag,
There might some truth on you comments, and it makes sense from you own prespective!!

But Blag, remember we are not playing chess here.
For Kosova and its status its people should decide, not others.

Kushtunica and his politics will get you back to the1980, encouraging and feeding nationalism at costs of ordinary people, for his personal political gains.
Have Serbia had a more pragmatic government, that would have co-operated with Hague, solve Kosova’s status (citing Ceku) “cut the problem off”, the whole region would have been in a much better position today, maybe both countries real EU candidates.

The economical embargo already exits from Serbia on Kosova, and it is already doing lots of damage to Kosova’s economy and its people, but in long term Serbia will regretted, as Kosova is forced to bypass Serbia with roads/rail/air.
If this embargo continues Tirana’s and Skopjes will be Kosovas main economical partners.
People of Kosova wellcomes Serbia as a partner to explore Kosova’s markets and its economy.
The Serbia telecom (63 and 64) in Kosova is not doing bad, although operating illegally.

But when it comes to the status of Kosova, this is linked with the lives of 2 million peoples security, and this is the answer of the Kosova’s people: you had it, you abuse it, ill treated its citizens, created a system of Apartheid in 20 century Europe, and killed us in thousands, and now you are thinking we will go all over those things again, and accept you and your state as our own.
Thank you for the offer, not good enough, next time we mix things you might loose more than Kosova.

what could be the reason, that those albanians here are only capable of threatening on and on... " nobody can stop 2 millions", " the people should (sic!) decide or like this nice little try of a threat in that last comment: ..." you could lose more"

could it be that there is only the threatening-with-violence-card the albanians can play? sounds like despair to me.
hey albanians, there´s no reason to be frightened, you´ll be serbias citizens! that means something, since serbia will very likely be a regional economic "tiger-state".... you´ll be better of within serbian borders! you just still don´t see it...due to the albanian propaganda.

How do you define "pre-1999 status"? Even Ruecker himself did not attempt to clarify. Because he can't in reality. Does "pre-1999 status" refer to direct rule from Belgrade? Which is different from what Belgrade is proposing now in its concept of maximum autonomy for Kosovo. No, Mr Ruecker. The whole thing is far from clear. You only have to revisit the open disagreement between Russia and US/UK in the UN to know that the Contact Group is far from united in reality.

I really hope peace and friendship will eventually come to the Balkans. So that I can visit this extraordinary region. But true peace and friedship cannot be dictated from outside. It must come from the parties within the Balkans themselves.

As "the parties within the Balkans" are not able to sort out the Kosovo question between themselves I suggest that outsiders arm both sides adequately, secure absolute safe havens for all civilians and let the others find the solution violently. The army that capitulates will bear the responsibility of state of things for next 200 years, after which a revanche opportunity will be organized in case populus so demands.
This is the only way to come to a solution both sides accept.

these guys (ruecker, et al) should all be arrested for incompetence. they say nothing. they double speak. they lie. they have led those people down a garden path to failure. at least when you look at a serb you know what he wants (autonomy).... and when you look at an albanian you know what he wants (indep). these guys are sickening.

Pre-1999 status referrs to Kosovo as part of Serbia. That will never happen again. Ahtisaari's package, while perhaps not specifically using the word independence, will specifically point out the end of Serb sovreignty over the province. That is the most important thing for the Albanians. Get Serbia to have absolutely no claim on paper as well. Then independence will be recognized on a bilateral basis until its time to vote in the General Assembly. One of the guiding principles of the Contact Group as well as many Western diplomats, has been that the final status must be acceptable to the people who live in the province...namely the two million albanians who comprise 97% of the population there. So like Ruecker said: Draw your own conclusions as to what the final status will look like.

The contact group should add one more sacred cow/principle to their list: Thou shalt not take territory from a sovereign state and redraw international borders. Perhaps this is superfluous since we all know that international law will take precedence or are some members of the contact group happy to make an ass of the law ?

Sidi as you may well know populations come and go particularly in the Balkans. Not so long ago (50 to 60 years) Serbs were the majority population in Kosovo. I have some empathy with your situation before WWII there were by some estimates 2 million Serbs in Krajina, a disputed region of Croatia back in the 90’s. During operation storm, in which the US acquiesced, the remaining Serbs, a quarter of a million, were ethnically cleansed from Krajina. There are now roughly a few hundred Serbs left in Croatia. My point is that the will of 2 million Kosovo Albanians living in Serbia should not decide the future for the region because a) the population is fluid and at present Serbs are under represented in the region many too frightened to return to their homes. Secondly, most of the population in Kosovo is under 25 and are likely to leave the region because of it’s poor economic potential and b) what about the will of the Serbian population living in Serbia shouldn’t they have a say in what happens to their territory?

If the west didn't believe there may be a way to preserve some of the Serbia's territorial integrity, they would have announced the Kosmet independence already.

I believe this is the last opportunity for Serbia to show the world that the Milosevic era is gone and democracy has prevailed for Serbs and Albanians in Kosmet.

If radicals win, Kosmet will certainly earn an unconditional independence, however, if democratic forces win there is a chance to preserve some of Serbia's territorial integrity.

Naturally, it will be hard to convince our Albanian friends to stay within Serbia's union, however, if the presure comes from the west, including the one's who are advocating Kosmet's independence, it can be done.

So, it's very much in Serbia's interest and in the interest of Kosmet's/Kosova's Serbs, to show the world that we are democratic. That's the only way there can be a compromise.

Some posters here are right to some extent. Kosmet/Kosova may never return to its pre-1999. But they forget that Serbia has utterly changed since 1999.

And I prsonally believe that we can live together with Kosmet's Albanians if we share the same democratic ideal of joining the international community, Nato, EU, etc.

Serbia ought to make an example by treating Presevo Albanians as any other citizen in the bounderies of Serbia should be treated.

The boycot, the Gendarmerie, and the underdevelopment of Albanian populated aereas in Serbia, certainly do not look good in the eyes of International community.

Presevo walley is a mirror of how Albanians in Kosmet/Kosova may be treated if they are to stay in the Union.

So, Belgrade politicians ought to do something fast about it, in order to achieve a win win sollution.

And some of you Serbian posters who act as if you want the land but not the people, you are doing a big favor to extremists such as Sidi.

Kosmet can be maintained in Serbia only if we show care, understanding, and humblness for these suffering people and our suffering Serbian people in Kosmet/Kosova.

Marry christmas to our Kosmet, Kosova friends.

"Gsuar Krishtlandjet,"

Boris,

I think that unmik has failed in its mission because in the last 7 yrs they have wasted time and money. This should not be taking this long. They made the serbs and albanians have negotiations hahahah. Every serb and albanian knew that both sides would of came to an agreement. Its all a game right now. Heres the real story Iran. Yep thats right Iran america needs russia to help them with Iran and russia is not. so America is going to give kosovo what they want because they know russia will not like this. So russia can help america and break their deals with Iran on oil or let kosovo be free and still keep their deals. Thats whats happening right now. So bottom line the UN is a joke!

@Sidi:

you should rather argue on the basis of rationality than on your wishful thinking. come back to see reason, instead of repeating on and on this flapdoodle of "2 millions can´t be stopped" bla-blah...

"we will fight till death for independence" and those lines above seem to me like the desperate try to blether around in order to call in for independence..

not returning to the pre-99 status simply means,not returning to the situation that was left by Milosevic, namely KosMet without autonomy.
every other interpretation is far from reason. you should know that, in order not to be disappointed in the end, what I think you will defintely be.
But then, I am convinced of that, the international community will be paying attention on the behaviour of the Kosvo-albanians. And that will be the moment, where you will be exposed as a community incapable of bringing peace and prosperity to the region.

thanks to all the others here for their ideas, arguments and opinions, merry x-mas!

to sidi: the outcome you specify is unacceptable for serbia and therefore a russian veto is likely. and i ask yet again... what is the legal mechanism to end serb sovreignty?

that leaves you a unilateral declaration of independence... which means:

-serb exodus from the south
-reciprocal declaration from the north (effective partition).
-serb economic embargo
-your biggest neighbor and the one you rely most for thrufare not recognizing you and constantly seeking ways to destabilize you
-no recognition/ drawn out recognition from a number of other states.

Sidi

I don't think your definition of "pre-1999 status" is accurate. It cannot refer to Serbia's sovereignty over Kosovo as this would directly contradict UN Resolution 1244. And the Contract Group has always supported UN policy, otherwise they wouldn't have supported UNMIK and the UN appointed Athisaari. If your interpretation is correct, Russia would definitely not have supported this Contact Group position.

But Sidi if one of the members of the security council does not agree then you can kiss that contact group reccomendation goodbye. I think whatever is decided will be good for both sides even if they don't like it all. So for those who read this forums come up with bright idea of causing an insurrection in Kosovo be prepared to fight because NATO is not going to allow conflict. They have already made agreements with Serbia to move troops rapidly to Kosovo if needed. I don't think they will be coming to the rescue of the albaninans this time. So for those who read this and think i am a serb you had better think again. Merry Xmas all.

Blag, it is clear that you fancy yourself an astute political analyst, but what think of the fact that the International Red Cross, as we speak, is preparing for an exodus of at least 70,000 Serbs? Might that be a strong indication of the future status of Kosovo?

arben, i'm just a regular guy writing logical things; disregarding lazy western news reports; and keeping emotions out of it. my take on the red cross thing:

a number of things took place since these plans were written 6 months ago... and in that time the conventional thinking has changed (i would place greater importance on last week's agreement to provide NATO safe passage to kosovo thru serbia... obviously to quell riots).

the west's plan was always to force-feed kosovo independence to serbia and discount the opposition by telling serbia it could not enter the EU until it capitulated.

however, much has changed:

a) the EU has closed off entry to serbia for the next decade (taking away a big carrot).

b) serbia has done very well bringing in foreign direct investment and keeping inflation in check (allowing it to chart an independent financial path not beholden to traditional western tools of control: the world bank and IMF).

c) kostunica hardened his resolve and called their bluff by telling them he'd rather keep kosovo then gain entry to the EU and NATO (seeing serbia'serbia's medium term future outside of those two institutions).

c) the new serbian constitution is really a problem for kosovo independence in that it outlaws any recognition of an independent kosovo (meaning effective embargo particularly on thrufare whicj kosovo needs to export cheaply).

d) the unexpected russian veto threat and the overall serbian diplomatic momentum it has gained in the past 6 months.

e) the weakening american position worldwide - particularly the quagmire in iraq; the definace of north korea and iran (all of which were supposed to have been solved by now); and the conitnued aggresiveness of a pissed-off russia fueled with petro-dollars) looking to reassert itself and counter american policy.

f) a divided american government presided over by a lame duck president who still hasn't put into place a u.n. ambassador

g) the inability of the west's darling (tadic... who is softer on kosovo) to win a majority... or even a plurality in serbia.

h) kostunica's disinterest in running for continued political office... making him kinda untouchable. he is not very interested in populartity... but in doing the right thing.


these are notable developments. i suggest everyone go to the ICG website (the biggest proponent's of kosovo independence these last 7 years (wesley clark, atasharri; madeline albright; abromovitz, etc) and read last week's report. it is not optimistic (whereas they have been very arrognnat the past 7 years):

http://www.crisisgroup.org

(the kosovo report is right on the front page)

one more thing...i am also sickened by the post-1999 serbian timidity to stand up to the west. it is easy for me b/c i am here and didn't get bombed... but i didn't make the problem either. so i write to gives serbs a needed good hard kick in the ass to snap them out of their funk.

lookbeforeyouleap

were do you get your figures? Serbs were never a majority in Kosovo. During the 50s and 60s serbs tried in different illegal ways to become a majority but failed.

To Blag,
There might some truth on you comments, and it makes sense from you own prespective!!

But Blag, remember we are not playing chess here.
For Kosova and its status its people should decide, not others.

Kushtunica and his politics will get you back to the1980, encouraging and feeding nationalism at costs of ordinary people, for his personal political gains.
Have Serbia had a more pragmatic government, that would have co-operated with Hague, solve Kosova’s status (citing Ceku) “cut the problem off”, the whole region would have been in a much better position today, maybe both countries real EU candidates.

The economical embargo already exits from Serbia on Kosova, and it is already doing lots of damage to Kosova’s economy and its people, but in long term Serbia will regretted, as Kosova is forced to bypass Serbia with roads/rail/air.
If this embargo continues Tirana’s and Skopjes will be Kosovas main economical partners.
People of Kosova wellcomes Serbia as a partner to explore Kosova’s markets and its economy.
The Serbia telecom (63 and 64) in Kosova is not doing bad, although operating illegally.

But when it comes to the status of Kosova, this is linked with the lives of 2 million peoples security, and this is the answer of the Kosova’s people: you had it, you abuse it, ill treated its citizens, created a system of Apartheid in 20 century Europe, and killed us in thousands, and now you are thinking we will go all over those things again, and accept you and your state as our own.
Thank you for the offer, not good enough, next time we mix things you might loose more than Kosova.

what could be the reason, that those albanians here are only capable of threatening on and on... " nobody can stop 2 millions", " the people should (sic!) decide or like this nice little try of a threat in that last comment: ..." you could lose more"

could it be that there is only the threatening-with-violence-card the albanians can play? sounds like despair to me.
hey albanians, there´s no reason to be frightened, you´ll be serbias citizens! that means something, since serbia will very likely be a regional economic "tiger-state".... you´ll be better of within serbian borders! you just still don´t see it...due to the albanian propaganda.