Stratfor: Radicals’ win may spell war in Kosovo

The Radicals will not win and I seriously doubt that the Serbs have the resources, leadership, or manpower to engage in conflict. This is a worst case scenario that STRATFOR always plans for...I think the Serbs will get automatic entry in the EU before any war erupts. Just my opinion, but Kosovo is lost to us...at least for the time being.

the members of the radical party can never make war in kosovo.
also they will create deep divisions to serbia society.
and if they engage in war, they must know that there is a price to pay if you loose.
miloshevic paid the price of kosovo, this radlicals what?

Stratfor actually considers the "Slovenia conflict" a war??? A defeat??? A defeat of what??? LOL!

Albanians at this point pray that Serbia will take radical steps ,and maybe even initiate the war in Kosova.In Kosova 10.000 people died, these families can hardly wait another war,since in Kosova the situation is diffrent from 1998,is diffrent politically,economically and security,including TMK,Police and Militia.Everybody knows today that these threats coming from Serbia or Rdical party or whatever party will be ,means that Serbia will be not like NOKIA but like an I-POD.

LOL!!! I should have read the whole thing before responding with a comment! War with Montenegro! LOL Stratfor's analysts must be drunk.

Either way, had the bosniak and albanian groups in montenegro (largely conditioned by Milo) not voted, there would not have been a vote supporting independence.

Hey Arben,

I think that most of us have no idea what your analogies refer to. What does IPOD have to do with anything??? Better try to provide a clear, understandable point.

Cheers

There seems to be a fringe within the Albanian K population that would actually embrace another armed conflict with Serbia. And what for? Would it make those people happier to kill some Serbs?

Hey Svojgazda,

Ceku already did that in croatia in 1993. I guess he wants to kill more.

only serb radicals maybe and the ones who dont stay in their place but come in our place.

if kosovo status will not be resolved quickly, the international comunity should not excpect people living here to change and see to the future. always there will be tension, division, this is proven by the past

The western media will be against the Serbs if we try to keep what belongs to us. I can clearly see them lying to the world about how the serbs are killing hundreds of thousands and start bombing our schools and hospitals again.



And then people ignore how we invested so much into kosovo... are the albanians giong to pay us for these investments if they end up breaking off?

Radical win or not, its up to Serbs to defend the heart of their national character, culture, and faith from extremism. The solution to Kosovo must be a compromise, and Serbia offers just that.

Why does the International community so misunderstand Balkan politics?

Slovenia? Geez, its obvious that Serbs were not a minority in danger there, and hence no major conflict. They don't even understand what the motivation behind the conflicts were in the first place, its just amazing to me.

And Montenegro?!?!?!?! That's just absurd really. There's no minority Serb population there in danger of being abused. Besides, Montenegrins ARE Serbs. Yes, there are some tensions between the two countries, but considering that the majority of politicians and businessmen in Serbia are Montenegrin, I don't think they view Montenegrins as the enemy.

The "last time" conflict wracked the region was in 2004! And before that was after NATO drove out the Serbian paramilitary groups. Of course those don't count as the victims were Serbs.

The number of ground troops has never been a deterrent to Serbs. Everyone knows there's no way a ground invasion would have any chance of success in the Balkans without an insanely high cost in lives on both sides. It was air strikes that did it, and for that, the actual physical presence in Kosovo doesn't mean much.

The Radicals are far more likely to focus on the issues of the right to self determination for Serbs in Bosnia or Croatia, then to send in the army into Kosovo. That's a nice safe issue with no risks or costs to it. Even the radicals aren't stupid enough to send in the army.

Now, some paramilitary units, or disgruntled gangsters are a possible threat. Just because the Serb population in Kosovo is small doesn't mean anything. First, it only takes a few people to start trouble (the 2004 riots are a prime example). Secondly, the paramilitary groups in Bosnia and Croatia came from Serbia! At least the ones that were doing the worst crimes.

First and Foremost, the International community NEEDS to get people who understand the Balkan mentality and the reasons behind the conflicts, or its NEVER going to stop.

Stratfor may be correct in what they predict, Radicals coming to power and independence for Kosovo. However, they are completely utterly wrong on the reasoning behind everything and show they have no concept on Balkan politics.

I want to know where they are getting these people? And why they understand so little. No wonder the US is so bogged down in Iraq...

Sadly, this passes as news in the West. The Big Bad Oriental Serb is once again rearing his ugly head against the sweet, innocent Albanian, Croat, Bosnian, Montenegrin, Eskimo, and Hawaiian, because all he knows what to do is go to war, wreack havoc, and sing nationalistic songs, blah blah blah. Please. Anyone with half a brain and half an thought paid to the region knows the SRS is powerful but certainly NOT likely to win the elections, and that Serbia is militarily exhausted and UNINTERESTED in fighting. I'd say we should focus on the growing concerns of radical Albanian expansionism instead, but that too would be premaute and prejudicial.

And Arban, I sincerely doubt Albanians are praying for a Radical election because they too, are exhausted and tired of fighting. And I happen to think Nokia and i-Pods are both excellent products. What are you talking about???

Stratfor is not a legitimate agency and this analysis proves it.

So basically Stratfor sees the EU/NATO as the only deterrant for Serbia should it use its military to defend its borders. But they might be tied up in the middle east without any sign of withdrawl anytime soon. Actually, if anything... conflict in the middle east looks like its about to get worse.

I could be wrong, but I find it hard to believe that if the Radicals win power in Serbia they will attack Kosovo, Bosnia and Montenegro, even simultaneously. It would be suicide. Politicians everywhere tend to say almost anything in order to get power, then use that power to slowly accustom their supporters to reality. I've seen that in Britain so many times.

Not all Western military powers are bogged down in Iraq and Afganistan, and as a supporter of Serbia, I really don't want to see them on Serbian streets.

The Radicals will not win and I seriously doubt that the Serbs have the resources, leadership, or manpower to engage in conflict. This is a worst case scenario that STRATFOR always plans for...I think the Serbs will get automatic entry in the EU before any war erupts. Just my opinion, but Kosovo is lost to us...at least for the time being.

the members of the radical party can never make war in kosovo.
also they will create deep divisions to serbia society.
and if they engage in war, they must know that there is a price to pay if you loose.
miloshevic paid the price of kosovo, this radlicals what?

Stratfor actually considers the "Slovenia conflict" a war??? A defeat??? A defeat of what??? LOL!

Albanians at this point pray that Serbia will take radical steps ,and maybe even initiate the war in Kosova.In Kosova 10.000 people died, these families can hardly wait another war,since in Kosova the situation is diffrent from 1998,is diffrent politically,economically and security,including TMK,Police and Militia.Everybody knows today that these threats coming from Serbia or Rdical party or whatever party will be ,means that Serbia will be not like NOKIA but like an I-POD.

LOL!!! I should have read the whole thing before responding with a comment! War with Montenegro! LOL Stratfor's analysts must be drunk.

Either way, had the bosniak and albanian groups in montenegro (largely conditioned by Milo) not voted, there would not have been a vote supporting independence.

Hey Arben,

I think that most of us have no idea what your analogies refer to. What does IPOD have to do with anything??? Better try to provide a clear, understandable point.

Cheers

There seems to be a fringe within the Albanian K population that would actually embrace another armed conflict with Serbia. And what for? Would it make those people happier to kill some Serbs?

Hey Svojgazda,

Ceku already did that in croatia in 1993. I guess he wants to kill more.

only serb radicals maybe and the ones who dont stay in their place but come in our place.

if kosovo status will not be resolved quickly, the international comunity should not excpect people living here to change and see to the future. always there will be tension, division, this is proven by the past

The western media will be against the Serbs if we try to keep what belongs to us. I can clearly see them lying to the world about how the serbs are killing hundreds of thousands and start bombing our schools and hospitals again.



And then people ignore how we invested so much into kosovo... are the albanians giong to pay us for these investments if they end up breaking off?

Radical win or not, its up to Serbs to defend the heart of their national character, culture, and faith from extremism. The solution to Kosovo must be a compromise, and Serbia offers just that.

Why does the International community so misunderstand Balkan politics?

Slovenia? Geez, its obvious that Serbs were not a minority in danger there, and hence no major conflict. They don't even understand what the motivation behind the conflicts were in the first place, its just amazing to me.

And Montenegro?!?!?!?! That's just absurd really. There's no minority Serb population there in danger of being abused. Besides, Montenegrins ARE Serbs. Yes, there are some tensions between the two countries, but considering that the majority of politicians and businessmen in Serbia are Montenegrin, I don't think they view Montenegrins as the enemy.

The "last time" conflict wracked the region was in 2004! And before that was after NATO drove out the Serbian paramilitary groups. Of course those don't count as the victims were Serbs.

The number of ground troops has never been a deterrent to Serbs. Everyone knows there's no way a ground invasion would have any chance of success in the Balkans without an insanely high cost in lives on both sides. It was air strikes that did it, and for that, the actual physical presence in Kosovo doesn't mean much.

The Radicals are far more likely to focus on the issues of the right to self determination for Serbs in Bosnia or Croatia, then to send in the army into Kosovo. That's a nice safe issue with no risks or costs to it. Even the radicals aren't stupid enough to send in the army.

Now, some paramilitary units, or disgruntled gangsters are a possible threat. Just because the Serb population in Kosovo is small doesn't mean anything. First, it only takes a few people to start trouble (the 2004 riots are a prime example). Secondly, the paramilitary groups in Bosnia and Croatia came from Serbia! At least the ones that were doing the worst crimes.

First and Foremost, the International community NEEDS to get people who understand the Balkan mentality and the reasons behind the conflicts, or its NEVER going to stop.

Stratfor may be correct in what they predict, Radicals coming to power and independence for Kosovo. However, they are completely utterly wrong on the reasoning behind everything and show they have no concept on Balkan politics.

I want to know where they are getting these people? And why they understand so little. No wonder the US is so bogged down in Iraq...

Sadly, this passes as news in the West. The Big Bad Oriental Serb is once again rearing his ugly head against the sweet, innocent Albanian, Croat, Bosnian, Montenegrin, Eskimo, and Hawaiian, because all he knows what to do is go to war, wreack havoc, and sing nationalistic songs, blah blah blah. Please. Anyone with half a brain and half an thought paid to the region knows the SRS is powerful but certainly NOT likely to win the elections, and that Serbia is militarily exhausted and UNINTERESTED in fighting. I'd say we should focus on the growing concerns of radical Albanian expansionism instead, but that too would be premaute and prejudicial.

And Arban, I sincerely doubt Albanians are praying for a Radical election because they too, are exhausted and tired of fighting. And I happen to think Nokia and i-Pods are both excellent products. What are you talking about???

Stratfor is not a legitimate agency and this analysis proves it.

So basically Stratfor sees the EU/NATO as the only deterrant for Serbia should it use its military to defend its borders. But they might be tied up in the middle east without any sign of withdrawl anytime soon. Actually, if anything... conflict in the middle east looks like its about to get worse.

I could be wrong, but I find it hard to believe that if the Radicals win power in Serbia they will attack Kosovo, Bosnia and Montenegro, even simultaneously. It would be suicide. Politicians everywhere tend to say almost anything in order to get power, then use that power to slowly accustom their supporters to reality. I've seen that in Britain so many times.

Not all Western military powers are bogged down in Iraq and Afganistan, and as a supporter of Serbia, I really don't want to see them on Serbian streets.