FT: Kosovo hostage to big power rivalry

I think it is a question of national prestige. Don't believe all the diplomatic niceties: behind all the polite smiles whenever US and Russian diplomats meet, both see realpolitiks as a zero-sum game. A rise in US prestige means a drop in Russia's and vice versa. And it will be a great blow to Russian prestige if the US gets its way entirely over Kosovo's status. Russia still sees itself as a superpower and now feels that with sky high oil prices, its world influence is once again on the ascent. Russian prestige suffered great blows with the break-up of the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact. This was made worse when the US later initially enjoyed great successes in toppling the Talaban and Saddam Hussein.

Today many are delighted at the turn of events in Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran and N. Korea. What is happening in these countries are a blow to US prestige and credibility.

Don't you think the Russians are secretly pleased to see the US having bitten off much more than they could chew? They will also be pleased if they could obstuct the US objectives for Kosovo. Especially since this will earn them Serbia's eternal gratitude. Plus the bonus of the rest of the world will beginning to see them as protectors from US bullying. The Russians need NOT spent a single rouble to oppose the US over Kosovo. Do you know how much the US already spent in Iraq, Afghanistan, Kosovo and the Balkans? I think it suits the Russians just fine to play the opposing game, and financially bleed the US ever more.

Lowe has a point. Besides, this type of international strategy in the Balkans is nothing new. Today it's between Russia and the US. One hundred years ago, it was between Russia and Austria. In all this time, Serbia has been caught in the middle. Let's not forget Austria's annexation of Bosnia to keep it out of Serb hands, as well as their established military presence in the Sandjak to keep Serbia and Montenegro from linking up. So too here, do we find external powers using the Balkans as their veritable chess board. The downside to all of this is that the Great Powers may make it seem they are the "friends" to the Balkan peoples (US to K-Albanians, and Russia as the Orthodox big brother to the Serbs). If history has taught us anything about this region, when Great Powers are concerned, their own strategic interests come first. Right now, Bosnia's mishmash instability is a result of external powers all trying to agree on a peace settlement. In the same regard, I see no golden path for the Kosovo solution.

Very intelligent comment Mike!
I certainly agree with your point of view concerning big powers.

However, I don't believe US is simply a friend of Albanians. They are actually protecting their investment, which is Bonstill Airbase!

It's estimated that this base may replace Ramstein as they relocate their troops.

Russia may flex some muscle by vetoing in the UN, but it will be short-lived. It simply won't stop Kosovo independence.

In that case, US may just give the green light to Kosovo Parliament to unilaterally declare independence.

That independence may not get recognition like Slovenia or Monte Negro, but it'll surely be recognized by US and all of it's allies, which is more than enough to legitimize a new country.

In the end, Serbs and Albanians have little chose when strategic decisions are made in Washington.


Cheers,

Din

So Russia is back as viable rival to the US, and we can hope for a little more balance in world affairs. Back in 1978 I wrote an article in a student magazine suggesting that the Cold War was not merely ideological, but simply a question of raw power - nothing else. I'm not always right about everything, but in this case I was.

As far as Serbia and the break-up of Yugoslavia was concerned, it came rather too late. Had Russia in that time, under Boris Yeltsin and his vodka, been as healthily aggressive as it is now becoming, Germany and the US would not have meddled so arrogantly in the Balkans and the former Yugoslav republics could have achieved their independence much as the Czechs and Slovaks did.

Still, better late than never.

I think it is a question of national prestige. Don't believe all the diplomatic niceties: behind all the polite smiles whenever US and Russian diplomats meet, both see realpolitiks as a zero-sum game. A rise in US prestige means a drop in Russia's and vice versa. And it will be a great blow to Russian prestige if the US gets its way entirely over Kosovo's status. Russia still sees itself as a superpower and now feels that with sky high oil prices, its world influence is once again on the ascent. Russian prestige suffered great blows with the break-up of the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact. This was made worse when the US later initially enjoyed great successes in toppling the Talaban and Saddam Hussein.

Today many are delighted at the turn of events in Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran and N. Korea. What is happening in these countries are a blow to US prestige and credibility.

Don't you think the Russians are secretly pleased to see the US having bitten off much more than they could chew? They will also be pleased if they could obstuct the US objectives for Kosovo. Especially since this will earn them Serbia's eternal gratitude. Plus the bonus of the rest of the world will beginning to see them as protectors from US bullying. The Russians need NOT spent a single rouble to oppose the US over Kosovo. Do you know how much the US already spent in Iraq, Afghanistan, Kosovo and the Balkans? I think it suits the Russians just fine to play the opposing game, and financially bleed the US ever more.

Lowe has a point. Besides, this type of international strategy in the Balkans is nothing new. Today it's between Russia and the US. One hundred years ago, it was between Russia and Austria. In all this time, Serbia has been caught in the middle. Let's not forget Austria's annexation of Bosnia to keep it out of Serb hands, as well as their established military presence in the Sandjak to keep Serbia and Montenegro from linking up. So too here, do we find external powers using the Balkans as their veritable chess board. The downside to all of this is that the Great Powers may make it seem they are the "friends" to the Balkan peoples (US to K-Albanians, and Russia as the Orthodox big brother to the Serbs). If history has taught us anything about this region, when Great Powers are concerned, their own strategic interests come first. Right now, Bosnia's mishmash instability is a result of external powers all trying to agree on a peace settlement. In the same regard, I see no golden path for the Kosovo solution.

Very intelligent comment Mike!
I certainly agree with your point of view concerning big powers.

However, I don't believe US is simply a friend of Albanians. They are actually protecting their investment, which is Bonstill Airbase!

It's estimated that this base may replace Ramstein as they relocate their troops.

Russia may flex some muscle by vetoing in the UN, but it will be short-lived. It simply won't stop Kosovo independence.

In that case, US may just give the green light to Kosovo Parliament to unilaterally declare independence.

That independence may not get recognition like Slovenia or Monte Negro, but it'll surely be recognized by US and all of it's allies, which is more than enough to legitimize a new country.

In the end, Serbs and Albanians have little chose when strategic decisions are made in Washington.


Cheers,

Din

So Russia is back as viable rival to the US, and we can hope for a little more balance in world affairs. Back in 1978 I wrote an article in a student magazine suggesting that the Cold War was not merely ideological, but simply a question of raw power - nothing else. I'm not always right about everything, but in this case I was.

As far as Serbia and the break-up of Yugoslavia was concerned, it came rather too late. Had Russia in that time, under Boris Yeltsin and his vodka, been as healthily aggressive as it is now becoming, Germany and the US would not have meddled so arrogantly in the Balkans and the former Yugoslav republics could have achieved their independence much as the Czechs and Slovaks did.

Still, better late than never.