"D-Day" for Alberta: Has the breakup of Canada begun? VIDEO

Premier Danielle Smith has warned that a victory for the separatist camp would lead to dangerous uncertainty, particularly as a trade war with the United States continues, Euronews reports.

Opinion polls indicate that fewer than a quarter of residents in the western Canadian province support independence. Nevertheless, ahead of the vote, attention is focused on voter turnout and whether the motivated separatist camp, amid what some describe as a lack of engagement among federalists, could achieve an unexpected result.

“Don’t let anyone tell you that the outcome is already decided. Turnout will determine the result,” Smith said at a rally on Thursday. She described the referendum initiative as a “dangerous bluff” at a time when U.S. President Donald Trump is imposing punitive tariffs and threatening annexation in an effort to undermine Canada’s resolve.

“Vote as if the survival of Canada depends on it—because it does,” Smith urged voters.

Discontent over the oil industry

Alberta has the world’s fourth-largest proven oil reserves, and the separatist movement has been fueled by dissatisfaction with the federal government’s management of the sector.

Many Alberta residents strongly opposed Danielle Smith’s predecessor, Justin Trudeau, accusing him of seeking to suppress oil production through his climate policies.

“If you’re asking me to identify who is responsible for separatist sentiment, I think it’s Justin Trudeau,” Alberta Premier Danielle Smith said earlier this month on the Canadaland podcast.

At a separatist rally in Edmonton on Saturday, 61-year-old Sandy Martel told AFP that people connected to the oil industry felt “robbed, cheated and mistreated.”

“It’s time to stand up and say: enough is enough,” she added.

The vote is taking place just days after a fire at a military base in the province killed at least four soldiers and injured dozens, prompting an outpouring of sympathy across the country.

Comparisons with Brexit

Alberta’s conservative premier has said she wants the province to remain part of Canada, but she initiated the referendum process in an effort to finally resolve the contentious issue.

If a majority votes in favour of secession, the process leading to a binding referendum will be launched, as promised. If the federalist camp prevails, Smith believes the question of secession should be considered settled.

Analysts have compared her strategy to that of former British Prime Minister David Cameron, who hoped a referendum would put an end to the debate over Britain’s membership in the European Union.

Carney led the Bank of England during the upheaval surrounding Brexit and drew on that experience on Thursday to warn Alberta residents of the potential consequences.

“At the time, it was unclear what Brexit actually meant,” he told a television station in Calgary. “Over the following years, as the details were being worked out, there was enormous uncertainty, investment was put on hold, and the economy began to fall behind,” he added, warning of unintended economic consequences.

Campaign overshadowed by disinformation

Today’s referendum features ten questions, including several concerning immigration. However, the main focus is on the tenth question: “Should Alberta remain a province of Canada?” Alternatively, should the province take legal steps to bring the question of independence to a final vote?

Elections Alberta has announced that ballots cast on the tenth question will be counted first, with results expected early tomorrow morning.

The period leading up to the referendum has been marked by widespread manipulation involving content generated by artificial intelligence.

Carney has called for a “decisive outcome”, but analysts fear the result could be challenged regardless of the final vote count.

“It is highly likely that, following this referendum, some members of the community will believe that the vote was rigged or, at the very least, unfair,” said Angus Bridgman, director of the Media Ecosystem Observatory at McGill University.

The debate has also drawn involvement from allies of Donald Trump, including U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who described Alberta as a “natural partner” of the United States in January.

After a separatist party won the provincial election in Quebec on October 5, tech billionaire Elon Musk wrote on the social media platform X that the province would be “better off” if it seceded.

“Alberta and Saskatchewan should also separate,” Musk added.

Asked about alleged foreign interference, Carney said on Thursday that foreign governments, including the United States, should not “interfere in our elections”.