Goodbye Zelensky, in four points

Goodbye Zelensky, in four points

As the Washington Post writes, citing its source, the new U.S. strategy will reduce the emphasis on returning the territories occupied by Russia, focusing on defense against new Russian advances.

The U.S. newspaper states that this is a sharp change compared to last year, when the American and allied armies rushed to train Ukrainian soldiers and send sophisticated equipment to Kyiv in the hope that they could quickly suppress the Russian forces that occupied eastern and southern Ukraine. That effort failed, mostly in Russia's heavily fortified minefields and front-line trenches.

The plan is for 30 countries that support Ukraine to join the new American plan, and each of them is preparing a document in which they list their obligations that they will fulfill during the next 10 years.

Last week, Britain already announced its 10-year agreement with Ukraine, which was signed by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv. However, the success of this strategy depends almost entirely on the US, by far the largest donor of money and equipment and coordinator of multilateral efforts.

The Biden administration hopes to release its 10-year commitment to Ukraine this spring, now being drafted by the State Department.

"We wouldn't survive without the support of the US, that's a fact," Zelensky said in a television interview last week.

According to US officials, the US document should guarantee support for short-term military operations, as well as "building a future Ukrainian military force capable of deterring Russian aggression." This will include concrete pledges and programs to help protect, rebuild and expand Ukraine's industrial and export base, and help the country with needed political reforms.

Four phases: struggle, construction, recovery and reform

For the combat phase, artillery ammunition, replacement of vehicles lost in the counteroffensive and a lot more drones are most needed, said Eric Ciaramella, a former CIA intelligence analyst. "A lot of electronic warfare technology and drones - that's where the Russians got the upper hand. They need more air defense systems to cover more cities," he said.

The construction phase is focused on promises for future Ukrainian security forces on land, sea and in the air, namely the development of Ukraine's industrial base for weapons production.

"Ukrainians will be able to see what they will receive from the global community for 10 years. At the end of 2024, they will have a plan for an army that can strongly respond to Russian attacks," Ciaramella said.

At the same time, part of the assigned funds will be directed to the development of the Ukrainian industrial base for the production of weapons that can at least keep pace with Russian production.

The recovery phase includes additional air defense to create protective "bubbles" around Ukrainian cities outside of Kyiv and Odessa and enable the recovery of key parts of Ukraine's economy and exports.

The reform phase includes attracting foreign investment to Ukraine, which will require additional efforts to stop corruption, US officials admit. Zelensky has taken some steps, including firing and arresting allegedly corrupt military procurement officials and judges.