Putin will do the same as Hitler or it'll be the end of him?
Is the murder of the Russian war blogger Vladlen Tatarsky the beginning of the Night of the Long Knives in Russia, "The Telegraph" asks in its analysis.
Wednesday, 05.04.2023.
22:22
Putin will do the same as Hitler or it'll be the end of him?
As "The Telegraph" recalls in its text, in the summer of 1934, Hitler ordered the assassination of the leaders of the SA, a Nazi private militia that had gotten out of control and threatened his power.The apparent killing of Maxim Fomin, aka Vladlen Tartarsky - a vocal pro-war critic of the Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine and a supporter of Wagner's mercenary group - was interpreted by some as a "shot" at Wagner's leader Yevgeny Prigozhin.
Prigozhin is sometimes talked about as a potential successor to Putin and has frequently crossed paths with Putin's inner circle in recent months, publicly alleging incompetence and even accusing Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu of treason.
This seems to have upset Putin as well as the military leadership to such an extent that the military has been accused of deliberately and needlessly wasting the lives of Wagner's mercenaries and depriving them of ammunition in order to clip their wings and even get rid of them, according to "The Telegraph".
Looking for a replacement for Wagner?
The UK Ministry of Defense is now reporting that Russia wants to sponsor and develop alternative private military companies (PMCs) to replace Wagner in Ukraine.Wagner, with 30,000 to 50,000 fighters in the country, has been essential to Putin's faltering war effort, undertaking missions that the regular military would not have done, so such blatant moves against the group indicate just how big a threat Putin must believe Prigozhin is.
Wagner will not be easy to replace. Apart from the activities in Ukraine, the network of that group, intertwined with Russian foreign and economic policy, stretches from Syria to Africa, Europe to Latin America. This war fed it and fed it, and it probably got too big to eradicate completely.
Still, while Putin might be better off getting rid of private military outfits and the internal risks they pose, they bring him many benefits. For one thing, he knows that former Russian leaders were brought down by high casualty rates, and his "desperate move" to avoid further casualties helps explain Russia's apparent caution in its current offensive and the Kremlin's reluctance to order full mobilization. The deaths of mercenaries do not have to be officially reported, and their body bags do not attract anything like the emotions of returning military casualties.
Wagner also demonstrated beyond doubt, especially at Bakhmut, that private companies can sometimes work more efficiently, unencumbered by the bureaucracy and institutional sclerosis that often characterizes regular forces. Although their owners are motivated by profit, PMCs are also cheaper, without the large costs of extensive training, pensions, disability benefits and higher wages, writes "The Telegraph".
The main thing in this war is that the PMC and their fighters are not legally responsible. In fact, under Russian law, they are illegal and therefore deniable. They are not commercially registered, do not pay taxes and do not officially exist. Wagner displayed a level of ruthlessness even greater than most regular Russian forces: he raped, robbed, tortured and killed prisoners and civilians with little fear of ever being brought to justice.
Shoigu has a private army
Putin will seek to combine these advantages with perhaps the most important ingredient in war: loyalty. This is where Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, the target of Prigozhin's wrath, could step in.It sounds bizarre to Western ears, but it is believed that even Shoigu has his own private army in Ukraine - "Patriot", an illegal organization that fights for profit together with the state that he legally leads.
Perhaps "Patriot" will become Wagner's successor, writes "The Telegraph" and adds that Shoigu is a long-time friend of Putin whose loyalty is unquestionable, his wealth is tied to Putin's, and the future of both depends on the outcome in Ukraine.
The rapid transformation of the Russian PMC scene, and in particular the removal of Wagner from the battlefield, could be as trump card for Putin as the elimination of the SA was for Hitler. Failure to do so could mean his end...
Be that as it may, all this is bad news for the West, which in the coming years will undoubtedly feel the consequences of the growing network of Russian mercenary groups around the world, "The Telegraph" concludes.
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