As entertaining as best TV series

As entertaining as best TV series This eclipses all other issues in the United States and also impacts on all other issues. This means, for example, that it will be next to impossible for major legislation to be passed by Congress this entire year. Many Senators and all the Congressmen will be campaigning and also focusing on how potential bills will be seen by the electors. President Bush is now very much a lame duck, both because the end of his final term is in sight and his personal unpopularity. This means that his Administration will be unable to pressure Senators or Congressmen even from his own party to support controversial or difficult legislation. They will all be looking to the future, not to what all too soon will be the past. So will foreign governments. The Presidential races on both the Republican and Democratic sides now resemble an entertaining weekly TV series, with each episode bringing unexpected twists and turns, triumphs and despair. Characters considered dead come back to life. Others falter under pressure. Some show unexpected sides to their personalities. It is the ultimate reality television show! While there are negatives associated with the American primary process for the election of President (the length of time and the cost), there is no question that it severely tests the will, strength, flexibility and endurance of each candidate. It isn't a party campaigning - it is individuals standing wholly on their own. They know that any word that they utter, even any expression on their faces can bring disaster or success. Moreover, in certain ways the lives of the candidates and their interaction with ordinary people is greater during this period than at any other time. Now is also the time when their entire lives will be minutely scrutinized by reporters and opponents for flaws to exploit. At this relatively early stage of the primaries, some key points are already clear: -Americans are well aware of how their country is now perceived in the world. They don't like it and expect the new President to improve our image. -If there is one word in general that seems thus far to have captured the mood of the voters, it is "change." Exactly what this means is subject to different interpretations. -The downturn of military and civilian casualties in Iraq has temporarily made this less of a focus than it will be in the actual Presidential campaign. -As fears of an economic downturn crystallize, this issue is beginning to have more and more significance in the campaigns. Polls show more and more voters listing economic factors as their major concern. President Bill Clinton won his first Presidential election by famously being kept on track in his public speeches by his staff endlessly repeating, "It's the Economy, Stupid!" It would be ironic if his wife ends up doing the same. -For somewhat different reasons, both the Republican and Democratic races at this point in time are both volatile, changing dramatically in short periods of time, and the ultimate winner uncertain. -Hanging over the campaigns are four sensitive issues in America: race (Obama), gender (Clinton), and to a lesser extent, age (McCain) and religion (Romney). All four are landmines ready to explode on any candidate who handles them incorrectly. But they also offer almost irresistible temptations to candidates and their supporters to exploit. -Barack Obama's candidacy has not been greeted warmly by many of the most prominent black leaders. That is because they come from the "civil rights" era of American politics, which was adversarial in nature and confrontational with the political system. Obama represents a new, younger generation more in the mainstream of American life. In some ways, this may be the passing of the baton from one generation to the next. -While the next few primaries will help or hurt some of the candidates, the next real key date is February 5, when the Democrats will hold primaries in 22 States and one Territory accounting for 52% of delegates to their nominating convention and the Republicans will have similar contests in 21 States. It is called "Super Tuesday" for good reason. It has the potential to be decisive in both races. -It used to be that the actual choice of a candidate was at the Party Nominating Conventions themselves, making them events of high drama. Over the past few decades, however, the nominees were chosen far earlier during the primaries themselves. One candidate would get momentum and by a "snowball effect," would capture all the delegates needed to win long before the last primary races were even held. That may well not be the case this year. It is now quite possible that either or both parties may go to the summer nominating conventions with no clear winner after all the primary races. This opens the door to all sorts of scenarios. The Democratic race has taken dramatic turns. Hillary Clinton's commanding advantage over several months seemingly evaporated overnight with a victory by Barack Obama in the first State primary in Iowa and polls showing that he had eliminated Clinton's advantage in New Hampshire and in fact would win that State primary by a significant margin. For around three days, there was a euphoria around the Obama campaign and dozens of articles explaining all the problems of the Clinton campaign with dire predictions of staff changes and even "panic." This ended as abruptly as it started, however, when Hillary defied the poll predictions and won the New Hampshire primary by a slim margin of less than 7000 votes. It is hard to overemphasize the significance of those votes. If Obama would have won that second primary by even one vote, he may well have developed a "bandwagon effect" which would have given him the momentum to dominate the campaign. It certainly would have seriously wounded Clinton's chances. As it is however, the Democratic race has significantly tightened up with national polls showing that Obama has almost totally erased Hillary's earlier lead. John Edwards is hanging in with the hopes that one of the two front-runners will falter badly. He also may be hoping to win enough delegates to be a deciding factor in a deadlocked convention. Given the above, the chances are high that the United States is going to elect either its first black or first woman President. Both have already made history as the first serious contenders for President that are not white males. But a danger now emerging is that either the race or gender card will begin to be played by the candidates or their staffs (or even perceived to be played by them) to the ultimate detriment of both. The campaign has just seen one such incident on the issue of race. The recent victory of Mitt Romney in the Michigan primary means that three different Republican candidates with three different philosophies won the first three major primaries. Senator John McCain, whose campaign was resurrected from the "dead" won in New Hampshire based on his appeal to independent voters, as well as in South Carolina just a few days ago. Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee won in Iowa thanks to his appeal to hard-line conservatives and evangelical Christians. Romney won in Michigan by emphasizing the need to fix America's faltering economy and appealing to the coalition of economic and social conservatives that supported Ronald Reagan. He also won in Nevada where he was running virtually unopposed. Added to all of the above is that the formidable candidate and former Mayor of New York, Rudy Giuliani did not even campaign in those states and has focused instead of the larger state races that lie ahead. Which means that at this point in time, any of the four are still very much in the race. So, all in all, the only certainty is great uncertainty and the fact that America will be fixated for the next ten months on the unfolding drama even more than is normally the case. The first woman president? Hillary Clinton campaigns (Beta) In November of this year, the United States will hold elections for the next President, the entire House of Representatives, 1/3rd of the Senate, a large number of State Governors, and numerous local offices. William Montgomery The chances are high that the United States is going to elect either its first black or first woman President. Both have already made history as the first serious contenders for President that are not white males. But a danger now emerging is that either the race or gender card will begin to be played by the candidates or their staffs (or even perceived to be played by them) to the ultimate detriment of both.

As entertaining as best TV series

This eclipses all other issues in the United States and also impacts on all other issues. This means, for example, that it will be next to impossible for major legislation to be passed by Congress this entire year. Many Senators and all the Congressmen will be campaigning and also focusing on how potential bills will be seen by the electors.

President Bush is now very much a lame duck, both because the end of his final term is in sight and his personal unpopularity. This means that his Administration will be unable to pressure Senators or Congressmen even from his own party to support controversial or difficult legislation. They will all be looking to the future, not to what all too soon will be the past. So will foreign governments.

The Presidential races on both the Republican and Democratic sides now resemble an entertaining weekly TV series, with each episode bringing unexpected twists and turns, triumphs and despair. Characters considered dead come back to life. Others falter under pressure. Some show unexpected sides to their personalities. It is the ultimate reality television show!

While there are negatives associated with the American primary process for the election of President (the length of time and the cost), there is no question that it severely tests the will, strength, flexibility and endurance of each candidate. It isn't a party campaigning - it is individuals standing wholly on their own.

They know that any word that they utter, even any expression on their faces can bring disaster or success. Moreover, in certain ways the lives of the candidates and their interaction with ordinary people is greater during this period than at any other time. Now is also the time when their entire lives will be minutely scrutinized by reporters and opponents for flaws to exploit.

At this relatively early stage of the primaries, some key points are already clear:

-Americans are well aware of how their country is now perceived in the world. They don't like it and expect the new President to improve our image.

-If there is one word in general that seems thus far to have captured the mood of the voters, it is "change." Exactly what this means is subject to different interpretations.

-The downturn of military and civilian casualties in Iraq has temporarily made this less of a focus than it will be in the actual Presidential campaign.

-As fears of an economic downturn crystallize, this issue is beginning to have more and more significance in the campaigns. Polls show more and more voters listing economic factors as their major concern. President Bill Clinton won his first Presidential election by famously being kept on track in his public speeches by his staff endlessly repeating, "It's the Economy, Stupid!" It would be ironic if his wife ends up doing the same.

-For somewhat different reasons, both the Republican and Democratic races at this point in time are both volatile, changing dramatically in short periods of time, and the ultimate winner uncertain.

-Hanging over the campaigns are four sensitive issues in America: race (Obama), gender (Clinton), and to a lesser extent, age (McCain) and religion (Romney). All four are landmines ready to explode on any candidate who handles them incorrectly. But they also offer almost irresistible temptations to candidates and their supporters to exploit.

-Barack Obama's candidacy has not been greeted warmly by many of the most prominent black leaders. That is because they come from the "civil rights" era of American politics, which was adversarial in nature and confrontational with the political system. Obama represents a new, younger generation more in the mainstream of American life. In some ways, this may be the passing of the baton from one generation to the next.

-While the next few primaries will help or hurt some of the candidates, the next real key date is February 5, when the Democrats will hold primaries in 22 States and one Territory accounting for 52% of delegates to their nominating convention and the Republicans will have similar contests in 21 States. It is called "Super Tuesday" for good reason. It has the potential to be decisive in both races.

-It used to be that the actual choice of a candidate was at the Party Nominating Conventions themselves, making them events of high drama. Over the past few decades, however, the nominees were chosen far earlier during the primaries themselves. One candidate would get momentum and by a "snowball effect," would capture all the delegates needed to win long before the last primary races were even held. That may well not be the case this year. It is now quite possible that either or both parties may go to the summer nominating conventions with no clear winner after all the primary races. This opens the door to all sorts of scenarios.

The Democratic race has taken dramatic turns. Hillary Clinton's commanding advantage over several months seemingly evaporated overnight with a victory by Barack Obama in the first State primary in Iowa and polls showing that he had eliminated Clinton's advantage in New Hampshire and in fact would win that State primary by a significant margin.

For around three days, there was a euphoria around the Obama campaign and dozens of articles explaining all the problems of the Clinton campaign with dire predictions of staff changes and even "panic." This ended as abruptly as it started, however, when Hillary defied the poll predictions and won the New Hampshire primary by a slim margin of less than 7000 votes.

It is hard to overemphasize the significance of those votes. If Obama would have won that second primary by even one vote, he may well have developed a "bandwagon effect" which would have given him the momentum to dominate the campaign. It certainly would have seriously wounded Clinton's chances.

As it is however, the Democratic race has significantly tightened up with national polls showing that Obama has almost totally erased Hillary's earlier lead. John Edwards is hanging in with the hopes that one of the two front-runners will falter badly. He also may be hoping to win enough delegates to be a deciding factor in a deadlocked convention.

Given the above, the chances are high that the United States is going to elect either its first black or first woman President. Both have already made history as the first serious contenders for President that are not white males. But a danger now emerging is that either the race or gender card will begin to be played by the candidates or their staffs (or even perceived to be played by them) to the ultimate detriment of both. The campaign has just seen one such incident on the issue of race.

The recent victory of Mitt Romney in the Michigan primary means that three different Republican candidates with three different philosophies won the first three major primaries. Senator John McCain, whose campaign was resurrected from the "dead" won in New Hampshire based on his appeal to independent voters, as well as in South Carolina just a few days ago.

Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee won in Iowa thanks to his appeal to hard-line conservatives and evangelical Christians. Romney won in Michigan by emphasizing the need to fix America's faltering economy and appealing to the coalition of economic and social conservatives that supported Ronald Reagan. He also won in Nevada where he was running virtually unopposed.

Added to all of the above is that the formidable candidate and former Mayor of New York, Rudy Giuliani did not even campaign in those states and has focused instead of the larger state races that lie ahead. Which means that at this point in time, any of the four are still very much in the race.

So, all in all, the only certainty is great uncertainty and the fact that America will be fixated for the next ten months on the unfolding drama even more than is normally the case.