Male šanse za jeftinije kredite

Znaci, ako sam dobro razumeo, ideja je ne da budzet direktno upadne u devizne rezerve kao do sada (sto Jelisic kao ne bi dozvolio), vec da prodaje obveznice uz vecu kamatu od repo, a banke ce tada same izvuci novac iz deviznih rezervi i uplatiti ih u budzet ovim putem. Druga varijanta je da gradjani izvuku svoju stednju iz banaka, time smanje kreditni potencijal privredi, pa uplate taj novac drzavi u budzet putem drzavnih obveznica, a drzava ce iz budzeta da kreditira privredu????

Ovde ja nigde ne vidim svez novac, vec samo presipanje iz supljeg u prazno???

Western banks feel Eastern Europe's pain
ERIC REGULY


Wednesday, February 18, 2009
ROME — Bank investors have downgraded Eastern Europe from hot growth story to liability as countries from Latvia to Bulgaria face potential economic collapse.

The deteriorating Eastern European economies and currencies have clobbered the shares of the Western banks that do business in the region. Italy's UniCredit, which has almost 4,000 branches in Central and Eastern Europe, lost 6.5 per cent in Milan trading yesterday, taking its one-week rout to 26 per cent.

French banking giant Société Générale, with subsidiaries in Romania, Slovenia and the Czech Republic, has suffered almost as much. Its shares hit a new 52-week low yesterday, taking its one-week loss to 16 per cent. Banks with little or no exposure to the region, like Banca Intesa, Italy's second-largest bank after UniCredit, have fared considerably better. Intesa is down 41 per cent over six months, compared with UniCredit's punishing 71 per cent.

Eastern Europe produced more grim economic news yesterday, suggesting the Western banks can look forward to no quick stock market revival. Latvia, the Baltic state on the Russian border, said it expects its economy to contract by 12 per cent this year, rather than the 5 per cent under its previous forecast.

Latvia was the European Union's fastest growing country in 2006. It and the other Baltic economies surged as Western capital flowed in and exports to the West and Russia soared. The abrupt reversal in the autumn forced Latvia to nationalize its second-largest bank and accept a €7.5-billion ($12-billion) bailout from the International Monetary Fund.

Latvia was only one of several Eastern European countries to get hit with grim economic news in the last week or so. On Feb. 7, the IMF said it was delaying the second payment, worth $1.9-billion (U.S.), of a $16.4-billion bailout loan to Ukraine because of the Ukrainian government's refusal to reduce its budget deficit to meet the loan's terms. This led to the resignation of Ukraine's Finance Minister, Viktor Pynzenyk.

Fitch, the ratings agency, cut Ukraine's long-term foreign and local currency credit rating to below investment grade, to B from B-plus. Analysts said the country may default on its loans unless it gets help from the European Central Bank.

The Russian government this week forecast a 2.2-per-cent GDP contraction this year. It previously forecast a 0.2-per-cent fall. In a research note published Tuesday, Denmark's Danske Bank Group said Eastern Europe, pummelled by falling currencies, risky Western loans and an export slowdown, faces “a market meltdown on the same scale as occurred during the Asian crisis of 1997,” adding that the region has become the “subprime area of Europe.”

Last night, several Eastern European countries were desperately trying to prop up their currencies. The deputy governor of the Czech central bank said the bank would have to stop reducing interest rates to prevent further currency deterioration. The Polish government revealed that it has been talking to the ECB about joining the exchange rate mechanism (ERM). The ERM is the predecessor stage to adopting the euro, during which the currency is allowed to float within a fairly tight range against the euro.

Western banks with significant Eastern European businesses may get downgraded, Moody's said in a report this week, because the region has “entered a deep and long economic downturn.” Writedowns on banking investments in the region are likely, analysts said.

UniCredit, the biggest banking name in the region, yesterday played down the risks to its eastern network. Bank spokesman Andrea Morawski said the bank was well-diversified, with only about 20 per cent of its overall revenues from Poland and other Central and Eastern European countries. “We are still primarily a Western European bank,” he said.

The Eastern banking portfolio was highly profitable in 2007 and is expected to show profits in 2008, when UniCredit reports its year-end results, he said. He had no comment on possible writedowns, other than to say that UniCredit is “monitoring the situation in light of the current outlook.”

© The Globe and Mail

Znaci, ako sam dobro razumeo, ideja je ne da budzet direktno upadne u devizne rezerve kao do sada (sto Jelisic kao ne bi dozvolio), vec da prodaje obveznice uz vecu kamatu od repo, a banke ce tada same izvuci novac iz deviznih rezervi i uplatiti ih u budzet ovim putem. Druga varijanta je da gradjani izvuku svoju stednju iz banaka, time smanje kreditni potencijal privredi, pa uplate taj novac drzavi u budzet putem drzavnih obveznica, a drzava ce iz budzeta da kreditira privredu????

Ovde ja nigde ne vidim svez novac, vec samo presipanje iz supljeg u prazno???

Western banks feel Eastern Europe's pain
ERIC REGULY


Wednesday, February 18, 2009
ROME — Bank investors have downgraded Eastern Europe from hot growth story to liability as countries from Latvia to Bulgaria face potential economic collapse.

The deteriorating Eastern European economies and currencies have clobbered the shares of the Western banks that do business in the region. Italy's UniCredit, which has almost 4,000 branches in Central and Eastern Europe, lost 6.5 per cent in Milan trading yesterday, taking its one-week rout to 26 per cent.

French banking giant Société Générale, with subsidiaries in Romania, Slovenia and the Czech Republic, has suffered almost as much. Its shares hit a new 52-week low yesterday, taking its one-week loss to 16 per cent. Banks with little or no exposure to the region, like Banca Intesa, Italy's second-largest bank after UniCredit, have fared considerably better. Intesa is down 41 per cent over six months, compared with UniCredit's punishing 71 per cent.

Eastern Europe produced more grim economic news yesterday, suggesting the Western banks can look forward to no quick stock market revival. Latvia, the Baltic state on the Russian border, said it expects its economy to contract by 12 per cent this year, rather than the 5 per cent under its previous forecast.

Latvia was the European Union's fastest growing country in 2006. It and the other Baltic economies surged as Western capital flowed in and exports to the West and Russia soared. The abrupt reversal in the autumn forced Latvia to nationalize its second-largest bank and accept a €7.5-billion ($12-billion) bailout from the International Monetary Fund.

Latvia was only one of several Eastern European countries to get hit with grim economic news in the last week or so. On Feb. 7, the IMF said it was delaying the second payment, worth $1.9-billion (U.S.), of a $16.4-billion bailout loan to Ukraine because of the Ukrainian government's refusal to reduce its budget deficit to meet the loan's terms. This led to the resignation of Ukraine's Finance Minister, Viktor Pynzenyk.

Fitch, the ratings agency, cut Ukraine's long-term foreign and local currency credit rating to below investment grade, to B from B-plus. Analysts said the country may default on its loans unless it gets help from the European Central Bank.

The Russian government this week forecast a 2.2-per-cent GDP contraction this year. It previously forecast a 0.2-per-cent fall. In a research note published Tuesday, Denmark's Danske Bank Group said Eastern Europe, pummelled by falling currencies, risky Western loans and an export slowdown, faces “a market meltdown on the same scale as occurred during the Asian crisis of 1997,” adding that the region has become the “subprime area of Europe.”

Last night, several Eastern European countries were desperately trying to prop up their currencies. The deputy governor of the Czech central bank said the bank would have to stop reducing interest rates to prevent further currency deterioration. The Polish government revealed that it has been talking to the ECB about joining the exchange rate mechanism (ERM). The ERM is the predecessor stage to adopting the euro, during which the currency is allowed to float within a fairly tight range against the euro.

Western banks with significant Eastern European businesses may get downgraded, Moody's said in a report this week, because the region has “entered a deep and long economic downturn.” Writedowns on banking investments in the region are likely, analysts said.

UniCredit, the biggest banking name in the region, yesterday played down the risks to its eastern network. Bank spokesman Andrea Morawski said the bank was well-diversified, with only about 20 per cent of its overall revenues from Poland and other Central and Eastern European countries. “We are still primarily a Western European bank,” he said.

The Eastern banking portfolio was highly profitable in 2007 and is expected to show profits in 2008, when UniCredit reports its year-end results, he said. He had no comment on possible writedowns, other than to say that UniCredit is “monitoring the situation in light of the current outlook.”

© The Globe and Mail