Emotive Kosovo call a trump card in Serb election

"I came here to make a pledge," nationalist presidential challenger Tomislav Nikolic told a crowd of 2,000 Serbs from the north of Mitrovica, who gathered to wave their flags and sing their anthem within earshot of their Albanian neighbours.

"I will never turn my back on you, without Kosovo there is no Serbia," he told the crowd, who cheered and chanted his name.

His speech from the makeshift podium was not so much directed at Kosovo's remaining 120,000 Serbs, but intended for the ears of Serbia's 6.5 million voters.

The imminent declaration of independence by the Albanian majority province has turned Kosovo into a major election issue, both a slogan and a rallying cry that touches on history, national pride, and Serbia's future place in the world.

The dusty province is celebrated in century-old epic poems as the heartland of Serbia's medieval kingdom, and the seat of the country's powerful Orthodox Church.

Partly due to that heritage, partly due to wounded pride from the defeats of the Yugoslav wars in the 1990s, analysts say that the mere mention of Kosovo can make Serbs very susceptible to emotive, populist calls and change the course of the vote.

"Politicians have imposed Kosovo as an issue in this campaign," said analyst Djorde Vukovic of the CESID think-tank.

"Some have done it to divert the attention of voters from other more important issues while others truly believe their mission is to keep Kosovo within Serbia."

Kosovo has been a United Nations protectorate since 1999, when NATO drove out Serb forces accused of atrocities while battling a guerrilla insurgency. Belgrade, backed by Russia, has said it will never accept a breakaway.

"NEVER GIVE UP"

But the European Union is preparing to send a supervisory mission and most of its members, along with the United States, have indicated they will recognise the territory as independent.

All but one of the main candidates in the election have come out against Kosovo's independence, but differ on how hard they are willing to oppose the West after it becomes fact.

Frontrunner Nikolic has made clear he does not favour EU membership if the bloc insists on recognising Kosovo, and would push for a neutral status while cultivating ties with Russia.

Pro-Western incumbent Boris Tadic, second to Nikolic in the latest polls but seen as having a slight lead in a decisive Feb. 3 second round, is more conciliatory and has made joining the EU a priority.

But he has also taken care to protect himself from accusations of treason.

"Serbia will never accept the independence of Kosovo," Tadic said this week. "We must never give up or give in."

A CESID poll showed that despite the rhetoric from all sides, Kosovo ranked below issues such as living standards and jobs, as expected for a country with an average monthly wage of some 350 euros ($520) and unemployment of near 30 percent.

For voters closer to Nikolic's nationalist sympathies, the Kosovo issue was fourth on their list of concerns, while for Tadic's voters it was eighth.

But its rank jumped higher every time the West did something that Serbs perceived as insulting or humiliating, analysts said, such as giving overt support to the Kosovo Albanians.

Srdjan Bogosavljevic, analyst with the Strategic Marketing pollster, said candidates were trying to cover all the bases by tying Kosovo's fate, and Serbia's response and future political direction because of it, to the issue of "a better life".

"The significance of Kosovo for ordinary Serbs varies depending on whether there is a campaign going on," he added. "In times of intensive campaigning, Kosovo goes up on the list."