pre 19 godina
ovde je rec o prostom terminskom ugovoru. ukoliko neko zeli da se stvarno zastiti od fluktuacije kupice put i/ili call opciju i za to platiti premiju, ali i rizik minimalizovati. bez opcije sve se svodi na spekulaciju. mozda je autor tako nesto i imao u vidu, ali ja nisam tekst tako protumacio
pre 19 godina
Evo konkretnog primera iz nase bankarske prakse.
Drzavni tender, cena treba da je u dinarima, budzet je fiksiran u dinarima tako da nije predvidjena fluktuacija cene u odnosu na EUR/DIN, ponuda se daje sad i konacna je bez prava na izmenu cene, isporuka se vrsi u narednih 5 meseci po nekakvom planu.
Roba koja se trazi je uvoznog porekla. Vrednost posla je desetak miliona EUR (u dinarima)
Problem je jasan.
Pokusavajuci da pronadjem resenje u vidu terminskog ugovora (jer je valutni rizik toliki da ni u teoriji ne moze da se pokrije cak i eventualnom razlikom u ceni) pozvao sam par prijatelja i kolega sa fakulteta koji zauzimaju vrlo visoke pozicije u prominentnim bankama u Srbiji.
Niko nije bio spreman da udje u pravi terminski ugovor.
Jedan mi je cak ponudio opciju dinari odmah :) Pa da imam dinare odmah ja bih odmah kupio valutu(cak bi nesto i na kamati za ta tri meseca zaradio).
Uglavnom moje prvo i jedino iskustvo po pitanju terminskih ugovora je vrlo negativno.
Molio bih Gdin. Eda Iglica (koga inace jako cenim) da mi objasni gde, kako, kod koga i pod kojim uslovima mogu da sanjam o terminskom ugovoru ili opciji na valutu u Srbiji.
Pozdrav,
Nik.
pre 19 godina
Posto je trziste finansijskim derivatima tek u povojima u Srbiji bilo bi lepo kada bi neko (stvarno nemam ideje ko bi taj 'neko' mogao da bude) definisao srpske reci za terminologiju vezanu za derivate i menadzment rizika.
Neke su ocigledne (spot, swap, hedge, forward) dok za neke nemam ideje (futures, arbitrage, itd ...). U svakom slucaju bravo za B92 sto je na sebe preuzeo ulogu informisanja i obrazovanja po ovom pitanju.
pre 19 godina
Gospodin Iglic je sasvim profesionalno i korektno ponudio varijantu uvoznicima i izvoznicima kako da se obezbede od promena kursa i zastite svoju osnovnu delatnost. Sve ostalo se zove "speculation" i nosi sa sobom velike rizike. "Spekulacijom" na Forex-u se bave specijalizovane investicione firme ( investment companies, hedge funds...) analiticari , i na vrhu piramide Centralne Banke.Rizik koji se preuzima ulazenjem u spekulaciju sa valutama ide od 15% pa cak i do 35% na godisnjem nivou ( i to se odnosi samo na majors - USD,EUR,JPY,GBP,CHF ) a kod Exotics ( gde nas Dinar jos ne spada ) everything goes...
Ako preduzece iz svog posla ima nekih 10-30% profita ( nemam blage predstave koliko firme ovde zaradjuju :) i kurs "krene" protiv njih....
Najvece multinacionalke , koristeci hedging, i dalje imaju gubitke na kraju godine zbog kursnih razlika .
Uporno se ovde kritikuje sve sto neko pametan predlozi, a slabo se slusaju pametni ljudi i predlozi ! Slusajte sta vam gospodin kaze - ZNA STA PRICA ...ako ne, well, your bloody money anyway...
Sto se tice mogucnosti predvidjanja kretanja valuta, e tu G. Iglic niste sasvim u pravu :) Ali ovo nije prilika za kratak kurs preko puske, niti se znanje i tehnika sa Majors moze primeniti na ovdasnji Dinar :)
Ima jos jedna , dosta jeftinija varijanta od Forwards, a to su Futures...Poradite malo na tome da razvijete trziste na Beogradskoj berzi , i to bas sa Futures valuta u odnosu na dinar...
Sve najbolje
Ciao
pre 19 godina
Za sve one koji "pripadaju" ovom malom (ali odabranom:)klubu pri B92, a pre svega za Gospodina Iglica i ekipu iz centralne Banke, jedna mala prica o mojoj profesiji..
Takodje za one koji ipak misle da zanemare savet G. Iglica i odluce se na speculation...
There is a huge difference between talking and acting in the foreign exchange world. Actually, it takes some naturally built-in guts to pick up the telephone and conclude a transaction. And it is true that «either you 've got it or you ain't got it». Traders agree that «once a trader always a trader». Even the best market analyst is not necessarily a born trader. And on the other hand a trader can never really give up the trading instinct. However, whereas these people are the big stars when booking profits, they become the loneliest people in the whole wide world when writing a loss. As one of this species, I am presenting a houmoristic article, which was written a long time ago, at a time that market information was not available through on-line pages on a screen but rather through slow telex machines. Technology has changed dramatically since then but I can assure you that trading psychology remains the same.
Written by Gerry Gohler, V.P. Wells Fargo Bank, L.A. in the late'70s
General guidelines for junior dealers after taking their first major foreign exchange position or the dealing with the agony and ecstasy of being right or wrong.
At close of trading session:
Settle nervousness of abdominal area with several cocktails of your choice.
Settle following aggravated nervousness with Alka Seltzer.
Watch traffic carefully on way home. Other drivers are unaware of your pre-occupation with Japanese Yen and could not care less.
Pay no attention to wife and children, you are alone in the world.
Hurry with your supper because of necessity to watch the 5 o'clock, 6 o'clock and 7 o'clock news. At each of these newscasts feel either elated or depressed at the news.
Maybe phone Singapore and see how the currencies open. If unchanged or slightly down from your price settle down for an evening of tube watching. You might not comprehend the stories but you may watch for news flashes during the actual shows.
Stay up until about midnight, so you can watch the 11 o'clock news.
Take additional Alka Seltzer and before going to bed (you don't sleep anyway) maybe call Zurich or London and see how things go.
Toss around and talk in your sleep. Your wife will love you for it, especially when you mumble: «I should not have gone in -or I should have pulled out and why did I do that.» This will leave room for speculation on her part about your sanity.
Get up around 5:30 am and maybe make a call to Frankfurt.
Start a hurried breakfast (coffee and Marlboro with an Alka Seltzer will do).
Avoid rush hour by driving to the office at 6 am. (You van do this without putting your tie on, lots of time for that after you unwind your position).
Run from parking lot to office and curse slowness of elevators.
When arriving in trading room run in direct line to the Reuters machine. Tear off 80 feet of accumulated news and with your left hand pick up telephone to broker. Don't bother with «Good morning» (brokers don't take positions and don't understand your problems). Scream into phone «Hows the Yen», hold your breath.
Take bid and offer and write figures on piece of paper.
If you unwind position at huge profit do the following: Write the ticket and calculate net profit.
Your mysterious stomach disorder clears up immediately being replaced by sense of triumph, elation. Hot flushes of success. The real greatness of your own genius will dawn upon you immediately. Laugh hysterically at your own good fortune, slap top of desk and find the world a truly beautiful place to be in. Pick up telephone to brokers, clients, friends and with due modesty let them know how you interpreted the difficult market correctly and had enough guts to take a stand and make an educated guess and take a calculated risk which paid off... Tell some mild jokes to show your human side even if you know that you are really the greatest. From the reaction to your jokes you can easily tell how your friends in the other bank made out last night.
If they laugh with you, they had the same position. If they just say «hmm, oh yeah» they lost money and don't feel so good. Don't press them at this point, hang up and let them call you back later. Show them you have compassion and say something like «It happens to the best of us».
If you find that the market (and the whole world!) has turned against you, do the following:
Exhale deeply. Sit down, calculate your losses.
Cast furtive glances about you and determine who is in the immediate area.
Turn introverted. Answer other peoples questions politely but firmly: «Sorry I can't talk now, but I am working out a complicated deal.»
Repress hot flushes of past failures and fears of your entire future and stop your mind from racing in circles.
Clear your mind and start thinking of how to explain this loss to your boss.
During the period don't accept phone calls, the inflection in your voice might tip off other bankers to your true position. Telex calls are OK because of impersonal nature of machine.
Take two Alka Seltzers and more coffee and Marlboros. and wait for bosses arrival.
Since bosses arrive usually two hours after the common people you have ample time for strategy.
List past losses (if possible from predecessors or ideally fro boss himself!)
Blame loss on outdated revaluation system.
Recite past profits and your own merits in bringing in several large accounts two years ago.
Make the following statements with authority:
1. We are a big bank and have to trade to maintain visibility in the market.
2. You can't be right all the time.
3. We have 14 more working days to break even.
4. Are we a big bank or some provisional schlock outfit?
5. Put boss on the defensive by saying «I thought you knew about this and I had your full support».
6. Blame President Carter, Blumenthal, Kahn for being incompetent.
7. Tell him that Chase, Citi and Morgan have the same position only 20 times larger and they must be really hurting by now (this will make boss feel happy that he is not Chase etc.)
8. Don't talk to anybody if you can avoid it, especially auditors (they are against you anyway) or Operations people (they don't understand).
9. Take floating holiday at secluded beach, preferably alone, and don't forget your Alka Seltzer.
Ciao
pre 19 godina
U redu je autorov pristup. Ali zanemaruje osnovnu, po meni apsurdnu cinjenicu, da je novac roba, kada je u pitanju Euro ili USA$, odnosno valute mnogih zemalja
jer ih nalazim na brojnim kursnim listama sirom sveta. Dinar - kao robu ne vidim na ni jednoj od njih, sem kod nas. Dakle - kakva je to roba koja se prometuje na vestacki ogranicenom trzistu jedino kod nas.Da je ona potrebana nekom drugom, mimo nas, pojavio bi se u prometnim - kursnim listama i van nase zemlje. Ovako...
NBS odrzava ga pod vestackim zvonom. I normalno, samo oni upuceni mogu predvideti njegovo kursno kretanje, a to je pre svega NBS i domace - strane banke.
pre 19 godina
A da je krajem maja 2006. uvoznik terminski kupio evre na sest meseci, cena bi (otprilike, da ne trazim sada precizne podatke o kursu i kamatnim stopama na taj dan) bila 88*1.1/1.02=95 dinara...kurs je krajem novembra bio oko 79. :)
Nisam siguran koliko je ovaj obracun primenljiv za nase uslove.
pre 19 godina
Zahvaljujem se Danilu na ispravci. Tehničkom omaškom su zamenjena mesta if i id u formuli. Obračun je OK.
pre 19 godina
@Ljuba kurs se izrazava na cetvrtu decimalu
pre 19 godina
Predlazem autoru da manje dodaje nule kod iznosa od 75.000 evra :-)
pre 19 godina
Postoji mala greska u formuli za izracunavanje forward kursa. Naime, u brojiocu razlomka koji u odnos stavlja kamatne stope za EUR i RSD trebalo bi da notacija bude 1+rd / 1+rf, a ne kao sto je navedeno. Izracunavanje je korektno. Podrzavam sto skoriju primenu ovih instrumenata - da konacno budemo kao normalno finansijsko trziste.
pre 19 godina
Nazalost ovaj komentator iako na visokoj funkciji ipak ne zna neke osnovne stvari
Nije "Random Walk" ono sto on kae da je random walk,
a naravno da su kretanja valuta predvidljiva ,"interest rate parity"
pre 19 godina
Nazalost ovaj komentator iako na visokoj funkciji ipak ne zna neke osnovne stvari
Nije "Random Walk" ono sto on kae da je random walk,
a naravno da su kretanja valuta predvidljiva ,"interest rate parity"
pre 19 godina
Postoji mala greska u formuli za izracunavanje forward kursa. Naime, u brojiocu razlomka koji u odnos stavlja kamatne stope za EUR i RSD trebalo bi da notacija bude 1+rd / 1+rf, a ne kao sto je navedeno. Izracunavanje je korektno. Podrzavam sto skoriju primenu ovih instrumenata - da konacno budemo kao normalno finansijsko trziste.
pre 19 godina
Predlazem autoru da manje dodaje nule kod iznosa od 75.000 evra :-)
pre 19 godina
@Ljuba kurs se izrazava na cetvrtu decimalu
pre 19 godina
A da je krajem maja 2006. uvoznik terminski kupio evre na sest meseci, cena bi (otprilike, da ne trazim sada precizne podatke o kursu i kamatnim stopama na taj dan) bila 88*1.1/1.02=95 dinara...kurs je krajem novembra bio oko 79. :)
Nisam siguran koliko je ovaj obracun primenljiv za nase uslove.
pre 19 godina
Zahvaljujem se Danilu na ispravci. Tehničkom omaškom su zamenjena mesta if i id u formuli. Obračun je OK.
pre 19 godina
U redu je autorov pristup. Ali zanemaruje osnovnu, po meni apsurdnu cinjenicu, da je novac roba, kada je u pitanju Euro ili USA$, odnosno valute mnogih zemalja
jer ih nalazim na brojnim kursnim listama sirom sveta. Dinar - kao robu ne vidim na ni jednoj od njih, sem kod nas. Dakle - kakva je to roba koja se prometuje na vestacki ogranicenom trzistu jedino kod nas.Da je ona potrebana nekom drugom, mimo nas, pojavio bi se u prometnim - kursnim listama i van nase zemlje. Ovako...
NBS odrzava ga pod vestackim zvonom. I normalno, samo oni upuceni mogu predvideti njegovo kursno kretanje, a to je pre svega NBS i domace - strane banke.
pre 19 godina
Gospodin Iglic je sasvim profesionalno i korektno ponudio varijantu uvoznicima i izvoznicima kako da se obezbede od promena kursa i zastite svoju osnovnu delatnost. Sve ostalo se zove "speculation" i nosi sa sobom velike rizike. "Spekulacijom" na Forex-u se bave specijalizovane investicione firme ( investment companies, hedge funds...) analiticari , i na vrhu piramide Centralne Banke.Rizik koji se preuzima ulazenjem u spekulaciju sa valutama ide od 15% pa cak i do 35% na godisnjem nivou ( i to se odnosi samo na majors - USD,EUR,JPY,GBP,CHF ) a kod Exotics ( gde nas Dinar jos ne spada ) everything goes...
Ako preduzece iz svog posla ima nekih 10-30% profita ( nemam blage predstave koliko firme ovde zaradjuju :) i kurs "krene" protiv njih....
Najvece multinacionalke , koristeci hedging, i dalje imaju gubitke na kraju godine zbog kursnih razlika .
Uporno se ovde kritikuje sve sto neko pametan predlozi, a slabo se slusaju pametni ljudi i predlozi ! Slusajte sta vam gospodin kaze - ZNA STA PRICA ...ako ne, well, your bloody money anyway...
Sto se tice mogucnosti predvidjanja kretanja valuta, e tu G. Iglic niste sasvim u pravu :) Ali ovo nije prilika za kratak kurs preko puske, niti se znanje i tehnika sa Majors moze primeniti na ovdasnji Dinar :)
Ima jos jedna , dosta jeftinija varijanta od Forwards, a to su Futures...Poradite malo na tome da razvijete trziste na Beogradskoj berzi , i to bas sa Futures valuta u odnosu na dinar...
Sve najbolje
Ciao
pre 19 godina
Za sve one koji "pripadaju" ovom malom (ali odabranom:)klubu pri B92, a pre svega za Gospodina Iglica i ekipu iz centralne Banke, jedna mala prica o mojoj profesiji..
Takodje za one koji ipak misle da zanemare savet G. Iglica i odluce se na speculation...
There is a huge difference between talking and acting in the foreign exchange world. Actually, it takes some naturally built-in guts to pick up the telephone and conclude a transaction. And it is true that «either you 've got it or you ain't got it». Traders agree that «once a trader always a trader». Even the best market analyst is not necessarily a born trader. And on the other hand a trader can never really give up the trading instinct. However, whereas these people are the big stars when booking profits, they become the loneliest people in the whole wide world when writing a loss. As one of this species, I am presenting a houmoristic article, which was written a long time ago, at a time that market information was not available through on-line pages on a screen but rather through slow telex machines. Technology has changed dramatically since then but I can assure you that trading psychology remains the same.
Written by Gerry Gohler, V.P. Wells Fargo Bank, L.A. in the late'70s
General guidelines for junior dealers after taking their first major foreign exchange position or the dealing with the agony and ecstasy of being right or wrong.
At close of trading session:
Settle nervousness of abdominal area with several cocktails of your choice.
Settle following aggravated nervousness with Alka Seltzer.
Watch traffic carefully on way home. Other drivers are unaware of your pre-occupation with Japanese Yen and could not care less.
Pay no attention to wife and children, you are alone in the world.
Hurry with your supper because of necessity to watch the 5 o'clock, 6 o'clock and 7 o'clock news. At each of these newscasts feel either elated or depressed at the news.
Maybe phone Singapore and see how the currencies open. If unchanged or slightly down from your price settle down for an evening of tube watching. You might not comprehend the stories but you may watch for news flashes during the actual shows.
Stay up until about midnight, so you can watch the 11 o'clock news.
Take additional Alka Seltzer and before going to bed (you don't sleep anyway) maybe call Zurich or London and see how things go.
Toss around and talk in your sleep. Your wife will love you for it, especially when you mumble: «I should not have gone in -or I should have pulled out and why did I do that.» This will leave room for speculation on her part about your sanity.
Get up around 5:30 am and maybe make a call to Frankfurt.
Start a hurried breakfast (coffee and Marlboro with an Alka Seltzer will do).
Avoid rush hour by driving to the office at 6 am. (You van do this without putting your tie on, lots of time for that after you unwind your position).
Run from parking lot to office and curse slowness of elevators.
When arriving in trading room run in direct line to the Reuters machine. Tear off 80 feet of accumulated news and with your left hand pick up telephone to broker. Don't bother with «Good morning» (brokers don't take positions and don't understand your problems). Scream into phone «Hows the Yen», hold your breath.
Take bid and offer and write figures on piece of paper.
If you unwind position at huge profit do the following: Write the ticket and calculate net profit.
Your mysterious stomach disorder clears up immediately being replaced by sense of triumph, elation. Hot flushes of success. The real greatness of your own genius will dawn upon you immediately. Laugh hysterically at your own good fortune, slap top of desk and find the world a truly beautiful place to be in. Pick up telephone to brokers, clients, friends and with due modesty let them know how you interpreted the difficult market correctly and had enough guts to take a stand and make an educated guess and take a calculated risk which paid off... Tell some mild jokes to show your human side even if you know that you are really the greatest. From the reaction to your jokes you can easily tell how your friends in the other bank made out last night.
If they laugh with you, they had the same position. If they just say «hmm, oh yeah» they lost money and don't feel so good. Don't press them at this point, hang up and let them call you back later. Show them you have compassion and say something like «It happens to the best of us».
If you find that the market (and the whole world!) has turned against you, do the following:
Exhale deeply. Sit down, calculate your losses.
Cast furtive glances about you and determine who is in the immediate area.
Turn introverted. Answer other peoples questions politely but firmly: «Sorry I can't talk now, but I am working out a complicated deal.»
Repress hot flushes of past failures and fears of your entire future and stop your mind from racing in circles.
Clear your mind and start thinking of how to explain this loss to your boss.
During the period don't accept phone calls, the inflection in your voice might tip off other bankers to your true position. Telex calls are OK because of impersonal nature of machine.
Take two Alka Seltzers and more coffee and Marlboros. and wait for bosses arrival.
Since bosses arrive usually two hours after the common people you have ample time for strategy.
List past losses (if possible from predecessors or ideally fro boss himself!)
Blame loss on outdated revaluation system.
Recite past profits and your own merits in bringing in several large accounts two years ago.
Make the following statements with authority:
1. We are a big bank and have to trade to maintain visibility in the market.
2. You can't be right all the time.
3. We have 14 more working days to break even.
4. Are we a big bank or some provisional schlock outfit?
5. Put boss on the defensive by saying «I thought you knew about this and I had your full support».
6. Blame President Carter, Blumenthal, Kahn for being incompetent.
7. Tell him that Chase, Citi and Morgan have the same position only 20 times larger and they must be really hurting by now (this will make boss feel happy that he is not Chase etc.)
8. Don't talk to anybody if you can avoid it, especially auditors (they are against you anyway) or Operations people (they don't understand).
9. Take floating holiday at secluded beach, preferably alone, and don't forget your Alka Seltzer.
Ciao
pre 19 godina
Posto je trziste finansijskim derivatima tek u povojima u Srbiji bilo bi lepo kada bi neko (stvarno nemam ideje ko bi taj 'neko' mogao da bude) definisao srpske reci za terminologiju vezanu za derivate i menadzment rizika.
Neke su ocigledne (spot, swap, hedge, forward) dok za neke nemam ideje (futures, arbitrage, itd ...). U svakom slucaju bravo za B92 sto je na sebe preuzeo ulogu informisanja i obrazovanja po ovom pitanju.
pre 19 godina
Evo konkretnog primera iz nase bankarske prakse.
Drzavni tender, cena treba da je u dinarima, budzet je fiksiran u dinarima tako da nije predvidjena fluktuacija cene u odnosu na EUR/DIN, ponuda se daje sad i konacna je bez prava na izmenu cene, isporuka se vrsi u narednih 5 meseci po nekakvom planu.
Roba koja se trazi je uvoznog porekla. Vrednost posla je desetak miliona EUR (u dinarima)
Problem je jasan.
Pokusavajuci da pronadjem resenje u vidu terminskog ugovora (jer je valutni rizik toliki da ni u teoriji ne moze da se pokrije cak i eventualnom razlikom u ceni) pozvao sam par prijatelja i kolega sa fakulteta koji zauzimaju vrlo visoke pozicije u prominentnim bankama u Srbiji.
Niko nije bio spreman da udje u pravi terminski ugovor.
Jedan mi je cak ponudio opciju dinari odmah :) Pa da imam dinare odmah ja bih odmah kupio valutu(cak bi nesto i na kamati za ta tri meseca zaradio).
Uglavnom moje prvo i jedino iskustvo po pitanju terminskih ugovora je vrlo negativno.
Molio bih Gdin. Eda Iglica (koga inace jako cenim) da mi objasni gde, kako, kod koga i pod kojim uslovima mogu da sanjam o terminskom ugovoru ili opciji na valutu u Srbiji.
Pozdrav,
Nik.
pre 19 godina
ovde je rec o prostom terminskom ugovoru. ukoliko neko zeli da se stvarno zastiti od fluktuacije kupice put i/ili call opciju i za to platiti premiju, ali i rizik minimalizovati. bez opcije sve se svodi na spekulaciju. mozda je autor tako nesto i imao u vidu, ali ja nisam tekst tako protumacio
pre 19 godina
Nazalost ovaj komentator iako na visokoj funkciji ipak ne zna neke osnovne stvari
Nije "Random Walk" ono sto on kae da je random walk,
a naravno da su kretanja valuta predvidljiva ,"interest rate parity"
pre 19 godina
Postoji mala greska u formuli za izracunavanje forward kursa. Naime, u brojiocu razlomka koji u odnos stavlja kamatne stope za EUR i RSD trebalo bi da notacija bude 1+rd / 1+rf, a ne kao sto je navedeno. Izracunavanje je korektno. Podrzavam sto skoriju primenu ovih instrumenata - da konacno budemo kao normalno finansijsko trziste.
pre 19 godina
Predlazem autoru da manje dodaje nule kod iznosa od 75.000 evra :-)
pre 19 godina
@Ljuba kurs se izrazava na cetvrtu decimalu
pre 19 godina
A da je krajem maja 2006. uvoznik terminski kupio evre na sest meseci, cena bi (otprilike, da ne trazim sada precizne podatke o kursu i kamatnim stopama na taj dan) bila 88*1.1/1.02=95 dinara...kurs je krajem novembra bio oko 79. :)
Nisam siguran koliko je ovaj obracun primenljiv za nase uslove.
pre 19 godina
Zahvaljujem se Danilu na ispravci. Tehničkom omaškom su zamenjena mesta if i id u formuli. Obračun je OK.
pre 19 godina
U redu je autorov pristup. Ali zanemaruje osnovnu, po meni apsurdnu cinjenicu, da je novac roba, kada je u pitanju Euro ili USA$, odnosno valute mnogih zemalja
jer ih nalazim na brojnim kursnim listama sirom sveta. Dinar - kao robu ne vidim na ni jednoj od njih, sem kod nas. Dakle - kakva je to roba koja se prometuje na vestacki ogranicenom trzistu jedino kod nas.Da je ona potrebana nekom drugom, mimo nas, pojavio bi se u prometnim - kursnim listama i van nase zemlje. Ovako...
NBS odrzava ga pod vestackim zvonom. I normalno, samo oni upuceni mogu predvideti njegovo kursno kretanje, a to je pre svega NBS i domace - strane banke.
pre 19 godina
Gospodin Iglic je sasvim profesionalno i korektno ponudio varijantu uvoznicima i izvoznicima kako da se obezbede od promena kursa i zastite svoju osnovnu delatnost. Sve ostalo se zove "speculation" i nosi sa sobom velike rizike. "Spekulacijom" na Forex-u se bave specijalizovane investicione firme ( investment companies, hedge funds...) analiticari , i na vrhu piramide Centralne Banke.Rizik koji se preuzima ulazenjem u spekulaciju sa valutama ide od 15% pa cak i do 35% na godisnjem nivou ( i to se odnosi samo na majors - USD,EUR,JPY,GBP,CHF ) a kod Exotics ( gde nas Dinar jos ne spada ) everything goes...
Ako preduzece iz svog posla ima nekih 10-30% profita ( nemam blage predstave koliko firme ovde zaradjuju :) i kurs "krene" protiv njih....
Najvece multinacionalke , koristeci hedging, i dalje imaju gubitke na kraju godine zbog kursnih razlika .
Uporno se ovde kritikuje sve sto neko pametan predlozi, a slabo se slusaju pametni ljudi i predlozi ! Slusajte sta vam gospodin kaze - ZNA STA PRICA ...ako ne, well, your bloody money anyway...
Sto se tice mogucnosti predvidjanja kretanja valuta, e tu G. Iglic niste sasvim u pravu :) Ali ovo nije prilika za kratak kurs preko puske, niti se znanje i tehnika sa Majors moze primeniti na ovdasnji Dinar :)
Ima jos jedna , dosta jeftinija varijanta od Forwards, a to su Futures...Poradite malo na tome da razvijete trziste na Beogradskoj berzi , i to bas sa Futures valuta u odnosu na dinar...
Sve najbolje
Ciao
pre 19 godina
Za sve one koji "pripadaju" ovom malom (ali odabranom:)klubu pri B92, a pre svega za Gospodina Iglica i ekipu iz centralne Banke, jedna mala prica o mojoj profesiji..
Takodje za one koji ipak misle da zanemare savet G. Iglica i odluce se na speculation...
There is a huge difference between talking and acting in the foreign exchange world. Actually, it takes some naturally built-in guts to pick up the telephone and conclude a transaction. And it is true that «either you 've got it or you ain't got it». Traders agree that «once a trader always a trader». Even the best market analyst is not necessarily a born trader. And on the other hand a trader can never really give up the trading instinct. However, whereas these people are the big stars when booking profits, they become the loneliest people in the whole wide world when writing a loss. As one of this species, I am presenting a houmoristic article, which was written a long time ago, at a time that market information was not available through on-line pages on a screen but rather through slow telex machines. Technology has changed dramatically since then but I can assure you that trading psychology remains the same.
Written by Gerry Gohler, V.P. Wells Fargo Bank, L.A. in the late'70s
General guidelines for junior dealers after taking their first major foreign exchange position or the dealing with the agony and ecstasy of being right or wrong.
At close of trading session:
Settle nervousness of abdominal area with several cocktails of your choice.
Settle following aggravated nervousness with Alka Seltzer.
Watch traffic carefully on way home. Other drivers are unaware of your pre-occupation with Japanese Yen and could not care less.
Pay no attention to wife and children, you are alone in the world.
Hurry with your supper because of necessity to watch the 5 o'clock, 6 o'clock and 7 o'clock news. At each of these newscasts feel either elated or depressed at the news.
Maybe phone Singapore and see how the currencies open. If unchanged or slightly down from your price settle down for an evening of tube watching. You might not comprehend the stories but you may watch for news flashes during the actual shows.
Stay up until about midnight, so you can watch the 11 o'clock news.
Take additional Alka Seltzer and before going to bed (you don't sleep anyway) maybe call Zurich or London and see how things go.
Toss around and talk in your sleep. Your wife will love you for it, especially when you mumble: «I should not have gone in -or I should have pulled out and why did I do that.» This will leave room for speculation on her part about your sanity.
Get up around 5:30 am and maybe make a call to Frankfurt.
Start a hurried breakfast (coffee and Marlboro with an Alka Seltzer will do).
Avoid rush hour by driving to the office at 6 am. (You van do this without putting your tie on, lots of time for that after you unwind your position).
Run from parking lot to office and curse slowness of elevators.
When arriving in trading room run in direct line to the Reuters machine. Tear off 80 feet of accumulated news and with your left hand pick up telephone to broker. Don't bother with «Good morning» (brokers don't take positions and don't understand your problems). Scream into phone «Hows the Yen», hold your breath.
Take bid and offer and write figures on piece of paper.
If you unwind position at huge profit do the following: Write the ticket and calculate net profit.
Your mysterious stomach disorder clears up immediately being replaced by sense of triumph, elation. Hot flushes of success. The real greatness of your own genius will dawn upon you immediately. Laugh hysterically at your own good fortune, slap top of desk and find the world a truly beautiful place to be in. Pick up telephone to brokers, clients, friends and with due modesty let them know how you interpreted the difficult market correctly and had enough guts to take a stand and make an educated guess and take a calculated risk which paid off... Tell some mild jokes to show your human side even if you know that you are really the greatest. From the reaction to your jokes you can easily tell how your friends in the other bank made out last night.
If they laugh with you, they had the same position. If they just say «hmm, oh yeah» they lost money and don't feel so good. Don't press them at this point, hang up and let them call you back later. Show them you have compassion and say something like «It happens to the best of us».
If you find that the market (and the whole world!) has turned against you, do the following:
Exhale deeply. Sit down, calculate your losses.
Cast furtive glances about you and determine who is in the immediate area.
Turn introverted. Answer other peoples questions politely but firmly: «Sorry I can't talk now, but I am working out a complicated deal.»
Repress hot flushes of past failures and fears of your entire future and stop your mind from racing in circles.
Clear your mind and start thinking of how to explain this loss to your boss.
During the period don't accept phone calls, the inflection in your voice might tip off other bankers to your true position. Telex calls are OK because of impersonal nature of machine.
Take two Alka Seltzers and more coffee and Marlboros. and wait for bosses arrival.
Since bosses arrive usually two hours after the common people you have ample time for strategy.
List past losses (if possible from predecessors or ideally fro boss himself!)
Blame loss on outdated revaluation system.
Recite past profits and your own merits in bringing in several large accounts two years ago.
Make the following statements with authority:
1. We are a big bank and have to trade to maintain visibility in the market.
2. You can't be right all the time.
3. We have 14 more working days to break even.
4. Are we a big bank or some provisional schlock outfit?
5. Put boss on the defensive by saying «I thought you knew about this and I had your full support».
6. Blame President Carter, Blumenthal, Kahn for being incompetent.
7. Tell him that Chase, Citi and Morgan have the same position only 20 times larger and they must be really hurting by now (this will make boss feel happy that he is not Chase etc.)
8. Don't talk to anybody if you can avoid it, especially auditors (they are against you anyway) or Operations people (they don't understand).
9. Take floating holiday at secluded beach, preferably alone, and don't forget your Alka Seltzer.
Ciao
pre 19 godina
Posto je trziste finansijskim derivatima tek u povojima u Srbiji bilo bi lepo kada bi neko (stvarno nemam ideje ko bi taj 'neko' mogao da bude) definisao srpske reci za terminologiju vezanu za derivate i menadzment rizika.
Neke su ocigledne (spot, swap, hedge, forward) dok za neke nemam ideje (futures, arbitrage, itd ...). U svakom slucaju bravo za B92 sto je na sebe preuzeo ulogu informisanja i obrazovanja po ovom pitanju.
pre 19 godina
Evo konkretnog primera iz nase bankarske prakse.
Drzavni tender, cena treba da je u dinarima, budzet je fiksiran u dinarima tako da nije predvidjena fluktuacija cene u odnosu na EUR/DIN, ponuda se daje sad i konacna je bez prava na izmenu cene, isporuka se vrsi u narednih 5 meseci po nekakvom planu.
Roba koja se trazi je uvoznog porekla. Vrednost posla je desetak miliona EUR (u dinarima)
Problem je jasan.
Pokusavajuci da pronadjem resenje u vidu terminskog ugovora (jer je valutni rizik toliki da ni u teoriji ne moze da se pokrije cak i eventualnom razlikom u ceni) pozvao sam par prijatelja i kolega sa fakulteta koji zauzimaju vrlo visoke pozicije u prominentnim bankama u Srbiji.
Niko nije bio spreman da udje u pravi terminski ugovor.
Jedan mi je cak ponudio opciju dinari odmah :) Pa da imam dinare odmah ja bih odmah kupio valutu(cak bi nesto i na kamati za ta tri meseca zaradio).
Uglavnom moje prvo i jedino iskustvo po pitanju terminskih ugovora je vrlo negativno.
Molio bih Gdin. Eda Iglica (koga inace jako cenim) da mi objasni gde, kako, kod koga i pod kojim uslovima mogu da sanjam o terminskom ugovoru ili opciji na valutu u Srbiji.
Pozdrav,
Nik.
pre 19 godina
ovde je rec o prostom terminskom ugovoru. ukoliko neko zeli da se stvarno zastiti od fluktuacije kupice put i/ili call opciju i za to platiti premiju, ali i rizik minimalizovati. bez opcije sve se svodi na spekulaciju. mozda je autor tako nesto i imao u vidu, ali ja nisam tekst tako protumacio
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