"It will be the end of Ukraine. And the Russians know it."
Ukraine could be plunged into chaos, former officials of that country claim.Source: Jutarnji list
Ukraine could be plunged into chaos, former officials of that country claim. As they point out, that would happen if the Western governments forced Kiev to submit to Russia's demands for decentralization of power in order to prevent the invasion.
They told "Telegraph" that foreign statesmen raised the issue of adopting elements of the 2015 Minsk II peace agreement, which they say would fatally undermine Ukrainian sovereignty.
Minsk II was formed while the Russian army and its allies surrounded the Ukrainian forces, and then defeated them at the railway junction called Debaltseve in 2015, and the immediate provision of the agreement was the imposition of a truce and the withdrawal of heavy weapons.
It also requires several amendments to a number of Ukrainian legal acts, which would then go before the Ukrainian parliament for confirmation. These include granting "special status" and the degree of self-government of separatist-controlled parts of Donetsk and Luhansk, organizing new elections in the area, pardoning those who fought for pro-Russian goals, and amending Ukraine's constitution to decentralize power to the regions.
Ukrainian officials say that the result of such changes in practice would be that the authorities under Russian control become a legitimate local government, and their militia a local police force, according to the British "Telegraph".
They would elect Russian-controlled MPs to Ukraine's parliament, and federalization would allow the Kremlin, through the regional government in Donbas, to veto foreign and domestic policies.
French President Emmanuel Macron met with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday, and the head of official Moscow promised not to take any new "military initiatives" as a sign that he is preparing for de-escalation.
However, the remarks of Ukrainian officials reflect the widespread concern of the Ukrainian political elite that the goal of Putin's current military accumulation is not only to implement the Minsk II agreement, but also to provoke divisions within the country.
"If the United States and Russia agree that Minsk II must be imposed, that will be the worst possible solution," said Sergei Rachmaninoff, a member of the Security and Intelligence Committee.
"It will be the end of Ukraine. And chaos would be created, which Russia would take advantage of. Not a civil war, but only chaos. And the Russians know that," he added.
Three Ukrainian officials agree in the assessment that the implementation of the agreement will start the "Third Maidan", or the people's revolution, and say that they doubt that this is exactly what Putin hoped for. The nightmare scenario, they say, would mean Russian tanks in front of Kiev, while government forces and well-armed protesters opposing the agreement would fight each other in the capital.
As a reminder, the Minsk II peace agreement was negotiated by Vladimir Putin and then-Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko in February 2015 in Minsk in negotiations mediated by then-French President François Hollande and former German Chancellor Angela Merkel.