It's ultimately clear: The war has already started

It's ultimately clear: The war has already started

However, the war may, in fact, already commenced, according to a BBC analysis.

British public service columnist Jonathan Marcus points out that "the risk of an all-out war between Russia and Ukraine dominates the headlines.All the obvious questions are being asked. Will Russia attack?"

Is President Vladimir Putin determined upon war come what may? Or can diplomacy secure peace? But we cannot see inside President Putin's mind.

So here's another question - how will we know when hostilities commence?

In response to that question, he also offered several answers.

Tanks rolling, rockets firing

First of all, clearly massed Russian tank formations crossing Ukraine's frontiers, or a massive rocket barrage or air strikes against Ukrainian positions, would mark a dramatic escalation in the crisis and a shift to a new phase of the conflict.

But the question can also be answered in another way and for this we need to stand back and view the Russian campaign against Ukraine in its entirety.

We need to look at the full toolkit available to Moscow and assess how it is being used. And in this light, when you ask - how will we know if the conflict has started - then the answer may be that it already has.

Military pressure

Russia already occupies Crimea - part of Ukraine - and it provides practical assistance to anti-Kiev rebels in the Donbas region.

Indeed it was the intervention of Russian armoured and mechanised units against Ukrainian forces in 2014 that prevented the pro-Russian rebels' defeat. Sporadic fighting has continued ever since. All sides supposedly support an international peace effort there, but little progress has been made.

Beyond this pressure there is also the threat to employ overwhelming military force.

The build-up of Russian combat formations around Ukraine's borders is extraordinary. This includes a significant deployment of forces to Belarus - which also shares a border with Ukraine - which might provide a closer jumping-off point for an assault towards the Ukrainian capital Kiev itself. Although Moscow says that this is just a routine exercise, what the Russians sent to Belarus is not just an ordinary military exercise, the author of the article believes.

It is also stated that a huge number of videos have been posted on social networks, showing Russian troops moving towards Belarus and Ukraine.

Irrespective of what Moscow may say, Ukraine and its friends in the West have every reason to be worried.

Creating a narrative

The next tool available to Moscow is an attempt to influence the narrative.

On the one hand Russia says it is not preparing for war, though it very much looks as though it is. But, just as importantly, it has a story to tell - a narrative - where far from Ukraine being the victim, it is in fact Russia itself that is threatened.

This is the substance of the documents handed over to the US which seek to halt and in some ways reverse NATO expansion and create a new sphere of influence for Moscow.

While some aspects of Russia's concerns, like talks on strategic and other weapons systems, are widely seen as a good idea, on NATO enlargement it is unlikely to get any change - and it probably knows this.

But the narrative has another purpose too. It is the story that Russia tells to try to shape the way the whole Ukraine crisis is discussed, not just by Western governments or its own citizens.

By all fair and rigorous independent analysis Russia is preparing for war with Ukraine, whatever its official spokesmen Kremlin may say.

Subversion

There are other possibilities in the Russian toolbox too. Cyber-attack and subversion, for example. Ukraine certainly has been the subject of the former. Just over a week ago a number of government websites were hit though it was far from clear where the attack came from.

More recently the UK Government has claimed evidence that Moscow has selected individuals to form a new government in Kiev - though whatever the suspicions, there has been no conclusive public evidence confirming Moscow's hand in such activities.

A cyber element could be an important part of any Russian attack, because they can cripple critical infrastructure and disrupt Ukraine's ability to coordinate a military effort.

Blurred lines between war and peace

When Russia seized Crimea we heard a lot of talk about "hybrid" and "grey-zone warfare" and the alleged deniability of the operation, whose participants, though uniformed, wore no military insignia.

But there was no doubt who these troops were. And Crimea was seized with old-fashioned military force, rather than by some esoteric deception.

What is under way at present is the essence of "grey-zone warfare" - the blurring of the boundary between peace and war.

But the Russian military has articulated a sophisticated doctrine that sees war and peace as a continuum where different tools are applied at different stages, sometimes in sequence, sometimes together, though with the same strategic aim.

And that ultimately is why the conflict has already been joined, it has been concluded in this analysis.