"Old, New, Orthodox" - CIA predicts a fragmented Europe
The US intelligence service CIA, and the agency Stratfor, have predicted big changes on European soil, Belgrade-based daily Vecernje Novosti is reporting.Source: Vecernje novosti
Namely, the CIA sees the European continent as quite different to what it is today in the near future - divided in three parts: "new," "old," and "(Christian) Orthodox" - and Serbia would be a part of the third.
At the same time, Stratfor has also predicted big changes - the strengthening of Poland and Romania through a strategic partnership with the US, the rise of Turkey as a regional power, and a decline in Germany's influence.
According to the CIA, by 2020, there will be a western bloc, "Old Europe," made up of Germany, France, Austria, UK, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Sweden, Norway, Finland; "New Europe" would include Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Croatia - and these, mostly former Warsaw Psct countries, would now form America's main military bastion in Europe.
A decade ago, the CIA also predicted that Europe would face a great crisis, making it difficult for the Balkan states to join the EU. For that reason, the prediction even at the time was that Serbia, along with Greece, Bulgaria, Macedonia, and Romania would form the "Orthodox Group" - that would also include Bosnia-Herzegovina and Albania, as well as Kosovo, which is treated as a separate entity.
Meanwhile in the "Catholic Zone" Eastern European countries would be under US patronage, the CIA predicted.
The turmoil that began in 2008, since the EU has been in trouble, shook the unity of the organization - and Stratfor predicted that if it survived, the EU would find it difficult to restore that unity, and would function in a more limited and fragmented manner. "In the next decade, Europe will be defined by the rise of national states as the driving force on the continent. The number of national states is likely to increase through secessionist movements or countries breaking up," Stratfor said in a projection of Europe by 2025.
These decade- old predictions that said relations within Europe would be very unpredictable and unstable have already come true, and this will result in the free trade zone's inability to function without greater protectionism. This is expected to hit Germany particularly hard, while Poland will increase its regional power. It is stressed that by the end of the decade, Turkey will rise to the level of a significant regional power, as Iran's main rival.
Europe's economic decline is also due to the aging of the continent, which, as predicted by the CIA, affects not only the loss of EU's power as a world player, but also the fate of NATO, and generally of old military alliances.
It has long been recognized that the face of Europe is dramatically changing through migrations, especially from Muslim countries. A decade ago, the CIA predicted that the Muslim population in Europe would go from 22 to 37 percent by 2025, which could further increase tensions on the continent.
The CIA also predicted that US relations with Europe will be "dramatically different" by 2020 - something that the new boss in the White House, Donald Trump, is obviously working on. This, as predicted, will result in a deviation from those institutions we have been accustomed to since World War II. NATO could be weakened and replaced by a different European defense architecture.