Elections in Bosnia promise little change

Elections in Bosnia promise little change Muslim Bosniak politicians continue to speak about the war, who did what and where they were, and the need for centralisation. Bosnian Serbs leaders speak about how to strengthen the "Serbian entity", Republika Srpska, with a view to independence or rigorous autonomy. For their part, Bosnian Croats insist on equality with the other two ethnic groups in BiH - déjà vu all over again. "The last four years have been lost for Bosnia and Herzegovina. It is true that opinion polls show that, more or less, the same political parties will enter the Parliament. But I hope that with the new electoral system with open lists, there will be more women, Europe-oriented politicians, young people and above all more politicians with transparent biographies," said Valentin Inzko, International High Representative and the EU's Special Representative for BiH. In fact, the election campaign showed that the only possible surprise could be Fahrudin Radoncic, a Bosnian version of Silvio Berlusconi, and his new Party for a better future (PBF). It is hard to put Mr Radoncic among those politicians with "transparent biographies", due to the shadowy ways that made him one of the richest people in Bosnia. Owner of the best-selling "Dnevni Avaz" daily, he is running for the Bosniak seat in the BiH Presidency trio. His rivals are the current Bosniak representative in the presidency, Haris Silajdzic (leader of the Party for BiH), and Bakir Izetbegovic, son of "the father of the Bosniak nation" Alija Izetbegovic, who founded the Party for Democratic Action. Mr Silajdzic is favourite to keep the job, but Mr Radoncic, thanks to his media basis, is widely portrayed as a man who can lead the country out of the economic crisis. His chances of success largely depend on Zeljko Komsic, the man representing the Croats in the Presidency trio. Mr Komsic has styled himself as an all-Bosnian patriot and champion of a unitary state, trying to score again in the Bosniak camp.. He is a member of the Social-democratic party (SDP), the most popular party in Bosnia according to the latest opinion polls. In 2006, he was backed by less than five percent of the Bosnian Croats but won the Croatian seat in the presidency in 2006 anyway due to his popularity among the Bosniaks. This is the simple basis of Mr Radoncic's calculation. The more Bosniaks vote for Mr Komsic, the greater the chance for him to overcome Mr Silajdzic and Izetbegovic junior. However, Bosnian Croats are unhappy about the prospect. "Mr Komsic is a swindle. We need a representative who will speak in the name of the Croats and send the message to the Bosniaks that we exist and it is impossible to rule Bosnia without Croats," said Dragan Cavic, the leader of the Croatian Democratic Union. In the Republika Srpska (RS), the results of the previous elections is set to be re-confirmed. According to the latest survey, Milorad Dodik, leader of the Bosnian Serbs Social-democrats (SNSD), will easily be re-elected in the first round as RS President. His party colleague Nebojsa Radmoanovic should also be reconfirmed as Serbian member of the Bosnian Presidency, and the SNSD stands to gain the absolute majority in the RS parliament. Mr Dodik raised his popularity in the electoral campaign thanks to help from Serbian president Boris Tadic and from members of the Belgrade government. They returned the favour to Mr Dodik, who sided with Mr Tadic in the crucial 2008 election campaign in Serbia. The forthcoming elections will be the seventh in BiH since 1990. There are 3,126,599 registered voters who will have to chose the three members of the Presidency as well as 42 lawmakers for the House of Representatives of the Parliamentary Assembly of BiH. In the Federation BiH (the Bosniak-Croat entity) 98 deputies will be elected to the House of Representatives, in addition to representatives of the ten cantonal assemblies. In Republika Srpska, the president and 83 deputies of the RS Assembly are to be picked. An election rally in Sarajevo (Beta/AP) General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina on Sunday are unlikely to produce results that will dramatically change the state created by the major Western powers in Dayton in 1995. Zeljko Pantelic General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina on Sunday are unlikely to produce results that will dramatically change the state created by the major Western powers in Dayton in 1995.

Elections in Bosnia promise little change

Muslim Bosniak politicians continue to speak about the war, who did what and where they were, and the need for centralisation. Bosnian Serbs leaders speak about how to strengthen the "Serbian entity", Republika Srpska, with a view to independence or rigorous autonomy. For their part, Bosnian Croats insist on equality with the other two ethnic groups in BiH - déjà vu all over again.

"The last four years have been lost for Bosnia and Herzegovina. It is true that opinion polls show that, more or less, the same political parties will enter the Parliament. But I hope that with the new electoral system with open lists, there will be more women, Europe-oriented politicians, young people and above all more politicians with transparent biographies," said Valentin Inzko, International High Representative and the EU's Special Representative for BiH.

In fact, the election campaign showed that the only possible surprise could be Fahrudin Radoncic, a Bosnian version of Silvio Berlusconi, and his new Party for a better future (PBF).

It is hard to put Mr Radoncic among those politicians with "transparent biographies", due to the shadowy ways that made him one of the richest people in Bosnia. Owner of the best-selling "Dnevni Avaz" daily, he is running for the Bosniak seat in the BiH Presidency trio. His rivals are the current Bosniak representative in the presidency, Haris Silajdzic (leader of the Party for BiH), and Bakir Izetbegovic, son of "the father of the Bosniak nation" Alija Izetbegovic, who founded the Party for Democratic Action.

Mr Silajdzic is favourite to keep the job, but Mr Radoncic, thanks to his media basis, is widely portrayed as a man who can lead the country out of the economic crisis. His chances of success largely depend on Zeljko Komsic, the man representing the Croats in the Presidency trio. Mr Komsic has styled himself as an all-Bosnian patriot and champion of a unitary state, trying to score again in the Bosniak camp..

He is a member of the Social-democratic party (SDP), the most popular party in Bosnia according to the latest opinion polls. In 2006, he was backed by less than five percent of the Bosnian Croats but won the Croatian seat in the presidency in 2006 anyway due to his popularity among the Bosniaks.

This is the simple basis of Mr Radoncic's calculation. The more Bosniaks vote for Mr Komsic, the greater the chance for him to overcome Mr Silajdzic and Izetbegovic junior.

However, Bosnian Croats are unhappy about the prospect. "Mr Komsic is a swindle. We need a representative who will speak in the name of the Croats and send the message to the Bosniaks that we exist and it is impossible to rule Bosnia without Croats," said Dragan Cavic, the leader of the Croatian Democratic Union.

In the Republika Srpska (RS), the results of the previous elections is set to be re-confirmed. According to the latest survey, Milorad Dodik, leader of the Bosnian Serbs Social-democrats (SNSD), will easily be re-elected in the first round as RS President. His party colleague Nebojsa Radmoanovic should also be reconfirmed as Serbian member of the Bosnian Presidency, and the SNSD stands to gain the absolute majority in the RS parliament.

Mr Dodik raised his popularity in the electoral campaign thanks to help from Serbian president Boris Tadic and from members of the Belgrade government. They returned the favour to Mr Dodik, who sided with Mr Tadic in the crucial 2008 election campaign in Serbia.

The forthcoming elections will be the seventh in BiH since 1990. There are 3,126,599 registered voters who will have to chose the three members of the Presidency as well as 42 lawmakers for the House of Representatives of the Parliamentary Assembly of BiH.

In the Federation BiH (the Bosniak-Croat entity) 98 deputies will be elected to the House of Representatives, in addition to representatives of the ten cantonal assemblies. In Republika Srpska, the president and 83 deputies of the RS Assembly are to be picked.