Beyond Berlin: Next 20 years

Turkey will never join the EU, because if it does the EU will not be the EU. It is as simple as that. Turkey is too big, and too different, it streaches deeply in the Middle East, it has too many connections with Central Asia. Finding a model of friendly relations with Turkey outside the EU is essential. The same applies to Russia. Ukraine and Belarus are too connected to Russia to become a part of the EU. Should they join while Russia is kept out it is bounnd to become hostile. It will not accept the well guarded EU's outer berder to cut through the Russian speaking heartland. Such a move would be perceived as a new Brest-Litovsk treaty. Perhaps Moldova (without the Trasdnestria) may reunite with Romania, Georgia after acquising to the loss of Abkhazia and South Ossetia may become a Western forepost and Western Ukraine, should it break away, may join. But this is the furtheres eastern enlargement the EU should consider. The expanssion fatigue is not palpable. It is a common seanse. Appart from Iceland (and Norway should it ever decide to join), the only countries that could adhere are the Western Balkans. EU does not need a ghetto in its tissue. Joining the union is also the only way Serbs, Croats and Albanians could reconcile.

A total strategic blunder by Gorbachev to allow the unification of Germany and help to consolidate the West.
It has only brought geopolitical and economic problems to us Pravoslavs (Russians,Serbs and others).
As for the new realities Asia(with China and Russia as its central powers)will become the new economic centre of the world with a reserve currency denominated in yuan/ruble.
Germany is an export oriented country that not only depends on Russian gas and oil but will more and more depend on the Asian markets for its exports .
Even today Germany exports much more to Russia and China than to the US and this is only growing exponentionally.
That means over time they will be forced to make a choice:
Adapt to the new realities and leave NATO and bow to the new masters or sink together with the Americans.
Either do what Russia and China wishes and "deconsolidate" the West or be barred from the worlds biggest markets and face an economic disaster.
Remember after WW1 when Germany was denied access to foreign markets,what happened?
I will tell you,1.6 million Germans died of starvation because nobody bought their industrial goods and they didn`t had enough farm land to feed themselves in absence of cash to import food.
Today after the loss of the agricultural eastern territories they have only become more dependent on acess to foreign markets.
If you want to crack NATO up Germany is the key.
I hope Putin,Medvedev and Jiabao are reading B92,until now they have followed my instructions.

As for Gorbachev,you wouldn`t believe it,recently he argued for the radical reduction of the global carbon footprint and this as a former president of a country that relies ,yep, on carbon (oil,gas) exports.
Not enough,a month ago he criticized Putin for "hurting" the Russian economy during the last ten years.
I simply cannot believe that such a man could become the leader of Russia .
That only shows that Russia needs to have a vibrant and strong two party system(Leftists and Rightists)which will follow a strategic line in Russias foreign policy and a media that is partially state owned and partially owned by Russian patriots who will screen potential candidates of both parties to the bones for their positions on issues of national importance.
If that existed in Russia in 1985 this guy would have never made it to the top of the state.

A total strategic blunder by Gorbachev to allow the unification of Germany and help to consolidate the West.
It has only brought geopolitical and economic problems to us Pravoslavs (Russians,Serbs and others).
As for the new realities Asia(with China and Russia as its central powers)will become the new economic centre of the world with a reserve currency denominated in yuan/ruble.
Germany is an export oriented country that not only depends on Russian gas and oil but will more and more depend on the Asian markets for its exports .
Even today Germany exports much more to Russia and China than to the US and this is only growing exponentionally.
That means over time they will be forced to make a choice:
Adapt to the new realities and leave NATO and bow to the new masters or sink together with the Americans.
Either do what Russia and China wishes and "deconsolidate" the West or be barred from the worlds biggest markets and face an economic disaster.
Remember after WW1 when Germany was denied access to foreign markets,what happened?
I will tell you,1.6 million Germans died of starvation because nobody bought their industrial goods and they didn`t had enough farm land to feed themselves in absence of cash to import food.
Today after the loss of the agricultural eastern territories they have only become more dependent on acess to foreign markets.
If you want to crack NATO up Germany is the key.
I hope Putin,Medvedev and Jiabao are reading B92,until now they have followed my instructions.

As for Gorbachev,you wouldn`t believe it,recently he argued for the radical reduction of the global carbon footprint and this as a former president of a country that relies ,yep, on carbon (oil,gas) exports.
Not enough,a month ago he criticized Putin for "hurting" the Russian economy during the last ten years.
I simply cannot believe that such a man could become the leader of Russia .
That only shows that Russia needs to have a vibrant and strong two party system(Leftists and Rightists)which will follow a strategic line in Russias foreign policy and a media that is partially state owned and partially owned by Russian patriots who will screen potential candidates of both parties to the bones for their positions on issues of national importance.
If that existed in Russia in 1985 this guy would have never made it to the top of the state.

Turkey will never join the EU, because if it does the EU will not be the EU. It is as simple as that. Turkey is too big, and too different, it streaches deeply in the Middle East, it has too many connections with Central Asia. Finding a model of friendly relations with Turkey outside the EU is essential. The same applies to Russia. Ukraine and Belarus are too connected to Russia to become a part of the EU. Should they join while Russia is kept out it is bounnd to become hostile. It will not accept the well guarded EU's outer berder to cut through the Russian speaking heartland. Such a move would be perceived as a new Brest-Litovsk treaty. Perhaps Moldova (without the Trasdnestria) may reunite with Romania, Georgia after acquising to the loss of Abkhazia and South Ossetia may become a Western forepost and Western Ukraine, should it break away, may join. But this is the furtheres eastern enlargement the EU should consider. The expanssion fatigue is not palpable. It is a common seanse. Appart from Iceland (and Norway should it ever decide to join), the only countries that could adhere are the Western Balkans. EU does not need a ghetto in its tissue. Joining the union is also the only way Serbs, Croats and Albanians could reconcile.