genc
pre 19 godina
Blag,
When all agree that there will bo NO border changes in the former Yugo, that includes Kosovo borders also. You cannot take for granted that only Serbia will be allowed to take Northern Kosovo and the others will be granted nothing. The P Albanians would react and put e democratic Serbia in a very difficult position (and Corridor 10 is of vital interest to Serbia, much more than N.Mitrovica and Zvecan). Moreover, the Albanians in Macedonia, the Serbs and Croats in Bosnia would surely feel authorised to do the same. No one wishes that. It’s against Serbia’s interest too, b/c a smaller and serbless Kosovo, as it seems you wish it, could not be hampered from joining Albania, and that’s the worst scenario for Serbia. And Serbia could by no means hamper that, if it annexes the northern piece of Kosovo. I think this view prevails in Serbia also.
As about Slovenia and Croatia’s independence, remember that they were parts of a sovran state, with a very ambiguous Constitution, which guaranteed the right of repubblics to self-determination to the point of seccession along with the untouchable integrity of SFRY. Kosovo is a UN-protectorate, with NO serbian administration and army at all. There hadn’t been border changes in Europe till 1991. Now Europeans do not consider that as a dogma, stability comes first, which is guaranteed by holding Kosovo separated from Serbia. Indeed, it’s different place and different time. The Constitution, with its hole, cannot be forced to the K-Albanians; in the future, with Kosovo running its separate way, the EU will gently push for some “slight, unsignificant updating” to be made to it.
It seems to me that you give much importance to Serbia’s additional leverage. That’s all about getting a better bargain in Kosovo, not about changing the substance of the outcome. Things have gone too far by now and Serbia’s weight is much smaller than needed to influence the outcome. Kosovo is a matter of European and global stability, its recognition will be sponsored by those who are currently playing the game, and surely they can offer much more than access in the small-sized serbian economy. Moreover, Serbia cannot simply ignore economical access to the bigs and the mediums who will recognize Kosovo, you know that economy has its laws, if you make a bad deal you cannot survive for long. And there private enterprises, mostly international, and not states, which run business.
In the theory K will set a precedent, agreed. But theory and praxis are sometimes far away. If any other separatist movement will manage to get the support of so much big players, borders will change. If not, it will remain a “sui generis” case, not applicable to it.
The blockage is also not to be taken seriously in the West, it would harm Serbia itself and push Kosovo towards Albania and Macedonia, with the 25% of Albanian population (not wished by many). I think there will be some angry measures in Belgrade following the declaration of independence, and much legal smuggling through the border, as it has always happened in the Balcans. You seem not be used to the Balcanic and Serbian mentality. You live in NYC and have only an ideal perception of Serbia and the Serbs there. During the 1998-1999 war the KLA bought 90% of its weapons from the Yugoslav Army. That should suggest you sth.
For the rest, it seems to me that you also are pointing to that concept which currently is being labelled “conditioned independence”. All of us know that there will be no FULL independence next year, but we know also that there won’t be any possibility for Serbia to rule again Kosovo. We know also that that kind of broad autonomy offered by Serbia to Kosovo is not functional, and is not sincere (the Consitution hole). It has not been taken seriosly by no one of the big players, even not by Russia. Hence you have the outcome, name it whatever you want. In addition, I would suggest you to consider that trying to partition Kosovo is not the best thing for Serbia’s interests today. As I pointed out, it’s much better for S to have some partecipation in Kosovo through its minority there, than a hostile land at its border.
I’m happy that you also choose the intellectual way of discussion, even if with so much fiction in it. There are also many childish, offensive and absurd commentaries even from the pro-Serbian side (many of them from not Serbians, which is positive). I appreciate your way of dialectical arguing, but I think that you need a better cognition of the real situation on the spot and more neutral valuation of Serbian possibilities in this game. Anyway, I feel that we’re agreeing in substance, but disagreing in terminology: for me iKosovo is going toward conditioned independece, for you it’s “not (full) independece”. Anyway, substance matters, not labelles. As an Albanian I wish that after all what happened, both peoples will find a normal way to live along as neighbours. I see that realism is preavailing from both sides and that leads me to be optimistic. Wish the best to you also (and more realism)!
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