Belgrade “testing nerves of West”

International Crisis Group analyst James Lyon says that Belgrade is "testing the nerves of the West".

Izvor: FoNet

Wednesday, 28.11.2007.

10:27

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International Crisis Group analyst James Lyon says that Belgrade is "testing the nerves of the West". “Belgrade now wants to extend the Kosovo negotiations. It is now testing the nerves of the West in order to provoke a negative reaction from the Kosovo Albanians, to get on the international community's good side with the solution that Serbia is offering in the negotiations,” Lyon said. Belgrade “testing nerves of West” “There is always a possibility for a continuation of negotiations. There is always someone in the European Union that could say that there has been some progress and that there would be a break of two, six or 12 months and then a new procedure of negotiations. But, so far, there is nothing specific,” Lyon said. “It is obvious that Russia is trying to force the European Union and U.S. to solve the Kosovo question through the United Nations Security Council. It now looks as if the U.S. and EU have decided to solve the question outside of the UN Security Council. That is the problem and we will see what the outcome will be,” Lyon told the Voice of America. He believes that all of the European Union would recognize Kosovo independence rather quickly, while the countries of the former Yugoslavia would take a different approach. “Of all of the EU countries, I think 23 or 24 would recognize Kosovo. In the first wave, Great Britain, France, Germany and Italy. Then, after about two to five months, the rest would recognize Kosovo,” he said. “Bosnia-Herzegovina would not officially recognize Kosovo. I do not see any indication that Montenegro would recognize Kosovo immediately." But he added that in his opinion, Croatia and Macedonia would opt for such a move. "It is now a question of how far Belgrade is willing to push the issue because Belgrade has interest in retaining relations with Macedonia, especially railway relations. There will be some smoke in the end, but there will not be any fire,” Lyon said. “Obviously, one of Belgrade’s policies is creating problems in neighboring countries. We see this especially in Bosnia-Herzegovina…Tensions in Bosnia are increasing and I think that Belgrade is playing with fire. That could also be a boomerang problem,” Lyon said.

Belgrade “testing nerves of West”

“There is always a possibility for a continuation of negotiations. There is always someone in the European Union that could say that there has been some progress and that there would be a break of two, six or 12 months and then a new procedure of negotiations. But, so far, there is nothing specific,” Lyon said.

“It is obvious that Russia is trying to force the European Union and U.S. to solve the Kosovo question through the United Nations Security Council. It now looks as if the U.S. and EU have decided to solve the question outside of the UN Security Council. That is the problem and we will see what the outcome will be,” Lyon told the Voice of America.

He believes that all of the European Union would recognize Kosovo independence rather quickly, while the countries of the former Yugoslavia would take a different approach.

“Of all of the EU countries, I think 23 or 24 would recognize Kosovo. In the first wave, Great Britain, France, Germany and Italy. Then, after about two to five months, the rest would recognize Kosovo,” he said.

“Bosnia-Herzegovina would not officially recognize Kosovo. I do not see any indication that Montenegro would recognize Kosovo immediately."

But he added that in his opinion, Croatia and Macedonia would opt for such a move.

"It is now a question of how far Belgrade is willing to push the issue because Belgrade has interest in retaining relations with Macedonia, especially railway relations. There will be some smoke in the end, but there will not be any fire,” Lyon said.

“Obviously, one of Belgrade’s policies is creating problems in neighboring countries. We see this especially in Bosnia-Herzegovina…Tensions in Bosnia are increasing and I think that Belgrade is playing with fire. That could also be a boomerang problem,” Lyon said.

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