Stratfor: Tadić victory suits Kremlin

Boris Tadić’s re-election as president suits Russia’s opposition to Kosovo independence more than had Tomislav Nikolić won.

Izvor: Beta

Wednesday, 06.02.2008.

11:28

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Boris Tadic’s re-election as president suits Russia’s opposition to Kosovo independence more than had Tomislav Nikolic won. This is the view of the U.S. strategic analysis agency, Stratfor. "Tadic victory suits Kremlin" “Following the Serbian presidential elections, most of the West welcomed Tadic’s victory over the pro-Russia candidate Nikolic - nonetheless, pro-Western Tadic is still the better choice in the eyes of the Kremlin,“ says a Stratfor study. Reiterating that the Serb Radical Party candidate is pro-Russia oriented, Stratfor points out that Russia welcomed the incumbent president’s victory, and believes that he will be more effective in thwarting Kosovo independence. The Stratfor study says that Kosovo was a key factor in the election campaign even though both candidates oppose the province’s independence, though many voters believed that Tadic’s wish to take Serbia into the EU would force him to relinquish Kosovo. The analysis claims that the president must maintain his position on Kosovo, or risk a backlash from the right wing and his coalition partners. “Had Nikolic won, he would have been in a better position to make concessions over Kosovo; his party is the furthest to the right and the most nationalist, so there is no-one more extreme than him to oppose him,“ says Stratfor. “In a nutshell, Russia’s wish to thwart Kosovo independence is more likely to succeed with Tadic at the helm rather than Nikolic,“ the agency concludes. The analysis says that prior to the elections, the Kremlin appeared to be moving closer to the Tadic camp, citing the energy deal giving Russia a 90 percent stake in Serbian oil production. Making economic headway in eastern Europe is a key issue for Russia, and Tadic has allowed this in Serbia, while also bolstering Russia’s opposition to the West’s insistence on Kosovo independence, says Stratfor.

Stratfor: Tadić victory suits Kremlin

“Following the Serbian presidential elections, most of the West welcomed Tadić’s victory over the pro-Russia candidate Nikolić - nonetheless, pro-Western Tadić is still the better choice in the eyes of the Kremlin,“ says a Stratfor study.

Reiterating that the Serb Radical Party candidate is pro-Russia oriented, Stratfor points out that Russia welcomed the incumbent president’s victory, and believes that he will be more effective in thwarting Kosovo independence.

The Stratfor study says that Kosovo was a key factor in the election campaign even though both candidates oppose the province’s independence, though many voters believed that Tadić’s wish to take Serbia into the EU would force him to relinquish Kosovo.

The analysis claims that the president must maintain his position on Kosovo, or risk a backlash from the right wing and his coalition partners.

“Had Nikolić won, he would have been in a better position to make concessions over Kosovo; his party is the furthest to the right and the most nationalist, so there is no-one more extreme than him to oppose him,“ says Stratfor.

“In a nutshell, Russia’s wish to thwart Kosovo independence is more likely to succeed with Tadić at the helm rather than Nikolić,“ the agency concludes.

The analysis says that prior to the elections, the Kremlin appeared to be moving closer to the Tadić camp, citing the energy deal giving Russia a 90 percent stake in Serbian oil production.

Making economic headway in eastern Europe is a key issue for Russia, and Tadić has allowed this in Serbia, while also bolstering Russia’s opposition to the West’s insistence on Kosovo independence, says Stratfor.

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