FT: Kosovo hostage to big power rivalry

FT: Kosovo hostage to big power rivalry

Putin warns that independence for Kosovo would set a precedent for Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the Russian-backed, separatist enclaves in Georgia. The US insists Kosovo is a “unique” case, thereby also seeking to assuage Chinese concerns over Taiwan and Tibet.

Financial Times reports that diplomats expect UN envoy Martti Ahtisaari to recommend a form of “managed” or “conditional” independence that falls short of full sovereignty, keeping Kosovo under international protection and guidance, possibly for three years.

Should Russia deprive Kosovo of the UN’s blessing for a path to independence, then the Kosovo Albanian government under Agim Ceku, prime minister, may be encouraged by the US to consider making a unilateral declaration of independence.

This heightens the risk that the Serb minority in Kosovo, mostly concentrated in NATO-protected enclaves, would follow suit and declare their own independence or allegiance to Belgrade.

The London daily quotes Dimitri Simes, head of the Nixon Center think-tank which has close contact with Moscow, when he says that Russia’s position on Kosovo is hardening but it may not have decided how it will vote at the UN.

“That depends on the overall status of the US-Russia relationship, the results of World Trade Organisation negotiations and the forthcoming meetings in November between Presidents Bush and Putin, first in Moscow and then in Hanoi,” he said.

But he warned that it might be difficult for Putin to back down over Kosovo.

“The Russian leadership, including President Putin personally, is making it increasingly clear to the Bush administration that Georgia is becoming a defining issue in the US-Russia relationship the way Iran and North Korea are on the American side.”

Glen Howard, president of the Jamestown Foundation security think-tank, said Putin had “let the genie out of the bottle with nationalism” and warned of the dangers posed by a Russia seeking to regain its Soviet-era domination of the Caucasus and its strategic oil and gas pipelines.

Condoleezza Rice, US secretary of state, kept making concessions only for Russia to keep “upping the ante”, Mr Howard said.

It was possible the Bush administration would seek to delay Kosovo’s bid for independence and Georgia’s bid for NATO membership to keep Russia on board over Iran and North Korea, he added.

Speaking of the deadlock facing Mr Ahtisaari, one Kosovo Albanian politician commented: “We are waiting for the real talks to begin – between the US and Russia”, Financial Times reports.