Ruling parties "likely to change coalition agreement"

BELGRADE Political analysts estimate it is "apparent" that the ruling coalition will change the coalition agreement within the upcoming government reshuffle. It now "depends on the readiness for change of minority partners of the United Regions of Serbia (URS) and the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) which scenario will become reality." Ruling parties "likely to change coalition agreement" Changes in the coalition agreement do not imply any special preparations, but they are necessary if new division of ministries is planned, Tanjug said, and added that this was the topic of Monday's talks between Prime Minister Ivica Dacic and First Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic. In order for the agreement to be altered, the ruling coalition needs to reach an agreement. Without an agreement, there are two options - forming of a parliamentary majority with a slightly weaker support (if the URS does not accept new solutions, such as the division of the ministry of finance and economy led by URS leader Mladjan Dinkic) or early elections (if the SPS does not agree to fundamental changes). "The division of Dinkic's ministry to finance and economy will occur even without the consent of the URS, if this is important to key factors in the government, but if the coalition led by the SPS does not show constructiveness and cooperativeness towards the strongest coalition party, the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), early elections are certain," President of Transparency Serbia and political expert Vladimir Goati has said. He pointed out that distinction should be made between the necessary partners in the coalition - those with at least 126 (out of 250) seats in the parliament altogether, and those without whom the coalition can survive, such as the URS. This is why the URS does not have strong bargaining position and a chance to accomplish its purposes like the SNS and the SPS, Goati added. The coalition agreement between the SNS, the SPS, the URS, the Party of United Pensioners of Serbia (PUPS) and the United Serbia (JS) was signed last year, on July 10, and ever since the government reshuffle was first mentioned the party leaders have been pointing to the necessity of changing the agreement if, for example, it was decided to divide the ministry of finance and economy or if a new ministry for European integration was formed. Political analyst Branko Radun also does not exclude the possibility of an agreement between the SNS and SPS with the URS being given the choice to take it or leave it. "We have a dominant political power, the SNS, which has huge popular support, the SPS is not doing bad, while the URS is a party with very little support. If the SPS and SNS reach an agreement, they could form the government without a third party," Radun stated. If the URS and SPS cause problems or insist on a minor reshuffle, an election becomes more likely, he noted. "It does not immediately mean another election, but it is headed that way," Radun pointed out. He does not completely exclude the possibility of getting a new prime minister in the reshuffle. The essence of the changes is to establish a new balance of power in the government, in a situation where the SNS is growing significantly stronger, and "it is necessary to recognize the new balance of power to have a stable government," Radun said. Professor of constitutional law at Belgrade's Union University Bogoljub Milosavljevic thinks a change in the coalition agreement is certain if there is an agreement to make "serious changes in the composition of the government, potentially replace the prime minister and put new people at top positions in the ministries." "It is a matter of assessment by the three key coalition partners and their decision whether to accept such a reshuffle," Milosavljevic told Tanjug. Such a reshuffle is entirely feasible and possible if it does not include exclusion from government. Tanjug

Ruling parties "likely to change coalition agreement"

Changes in the coalition agreement do not imply any special preparations, but they are necessary if new division of ministries is planned, Tanjug said, and added that this was the topic of Monday's talks between Prime Minister Ivica Dačić and First Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandar Vučić.

In order for the agreement to be altered, the ruling coalition needs to reach an agreement. Without an agreement, there are two options - forming of a parliamentary majority with a slightly weaker support (if the URS does not accept new solutions, such as the division of the ministry of finance and economy led by URS leader Mlađan Dinkić) or early elections (if the SPS does not agree to fundamental changes).

"The division of Dinkic's ministry to finance and economy will occur even without the consent of the URS, if this is important to key factors in the government, but if the coalition led by the SPS does not show constructiveness and cooperativeness towards the strongest coalition party, the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), early elections are certain," President of Transparency Serbia and political expert Vladimir Goati has said.

He pointed out that distinction should be made between the necessary partners in the coalition - those with at least 126 (out of 250) seats in the parliament altogether, and those without whom the coalition can survive, such as the URS.

This is why the URS does not have strong bargaining position and a chance to accomplish its purposes like the SNS and the SPS, Goati added.

The coalition agreement between the SNS, the SPS, the URS, the Party of United Pensioners of Serbia (PUPS) and the United Serbia (JS) was signed last year, on July 10, and ever since the government reshuffle was first mentioned the party leaders have been pointing to the necessity of changing the agreement if, for example, it was decided to divide the ministry of finance and economy or if a new ministry for European integration was formed.

Political analyst Branko Radun also does not exclude the possibility of an agreement between the SNS and SPS with the URS being given the choice to take it or leave it.

"We have a dominant political power, the SNS, which has huge popular support, the SPS is not doing bad, while the URS is a party with very little support. If the SPS and SNS reach an agreement, they could form the government without a third party," Radun stated.

If the URS and SPS cause problems or insist on a minor reshuffle, an election becomes more likely, he noted.

"It does not immediately mean another election, but it is headed that way," Radun pointed out.

He does not completely exclude the possibility of getting a new prime minister in the reshuffle.

The essence of the changes is to establish a new balance of power in the government, in a situation where the SNS is growing significantly stronger, and "it is necessary to recognize the new balance of power to have a stable government," Radun said.

Professor of constitutional law at Belgrade's Union University Bogoljub Milosavljević thinks a change in the coalition agreement is certain if there is an agreement to make "serious changes in the composition of the government, potentially replace the prime minister and put new people at top positions in the ministries."

"It is a matter of assessment by the three key coalition partners and their decision whether to accept such a reshuffle," Milosavljević told Tanjug.

Such a reshuffle is entirely feasible and possible if it does not include exclusion from government.