"Tadić painted himself into corner"

An analyst for the Belgrade-based newspaper Politika says that the Serbian president's current policy has collapsed. “The German Chancellor came to Belgrade to clear up plans and illusions of her hosts about Kosovo. With German precision, teutonically cold, frau Merkel said to Boris Tadic things he wanted to hear the least: Germany wants Serbia in EU, but it won’t happen until she normalizes her relations with its south neighbor, until Serbia’s ‘parallel structures’ in Kosovo aren’t abolished." "Tadic painted himself into corner" “At cross purposes… Tadic said then that institutions in North Kosovo were not parallel, but the only institutions – Serbia’s. Germany neither wants parallel, but the only institutions – Kosovo’s. What should we do now?”(…)," Bosko Jaksic wrote. “The hosts were unpleasantly surprised – not because they did not know what Germans think, but because they thought that Germans would not drive them into the corner. It was a public execution [of Tadic’s] motto ‘Both Kosovo and Europe’. The candidacy turned from ‘sure thing’ into a gaseous state.” “Since Serbia’s elite still consider that Serbia’s national issue is not resolved yet, the politicians collected themselves soon and started voicing slogans, which, it seems that way, are closest to them.” “’The patriotic Serbia’, the EU is sick and tired of, was thrilled. The realistic Serbia, that thinks that Kosovo has been lost for a long time as well as that Kosovo Serbs should be helped, just like Serbs in independent Bosnia-Herzegovina, silently monitors the developments.” “Tadic had to appear in public and say that there ‘is a possibility’ Serbia would not get the EU member-country candidate status this year. Why? Because Serbia cannot accept the condition to abolish her institutions in North Kosovo.” “Tadic made a decision not to abandon his people in Kosovo, (who has ever asked for such a thing?) but, is he ready to give up his ‘primary strategic objective’ – as he used to describe accession to the EU so many times? He says that he is not, that Serbia will not give up EU integration processes, but it is just a wishful thinking, a nice slogan. Decisions on the future of Serbia’s EU integrations are not made in Belgrade, but in Brussels and Berlin.” “Tadic still believes that it is still possible to eat your cake and to have it. If not today, then it will happen tomorrow, next year: ‘I’m sure that Serbia will meet any criterion which is in line with the Copenhagen criteria, but we will see whether the EU is going to meet her part of the job’.” “What Copenhagen criteria?! These were not written for candidates that have Kosovo. Whether EU is going to meet her portion of the job? The EU does meet it, to Serbia’s regret the EU does it systematically, in an organized manner, with a clearly defined objective, in a way Serbia does not want to do it, because Serbia has been going zigzag, Serbia does not know what she is going to do without Kosovo, because she does not know what she shall do with Kosovo.” “Politicians are trying to avoid taking ‘either-or’ standpoints. Since Merkel destroyed the dreams about ‘and-and’ – both Kosovo and the EU – Tadic is now in an ‘either-or’ situation. If he agrees with Merkel, it would mean admitting to the defeat of the current politics and would make many Serbs very angry, especially people living in northern Kosovo. Refusing means at least temporarily parting with Europe. “Both options have their electoral price, which means that the Democrats in power will have to look for new slogans and a new, middle solution. (…) The dilemma is dramatic. So dramatic that decisions should not be made over night or in one cabinet, not even the cabinet of the president.(...)" "However, it is not the first time 180 degree turns are made. Last year, while Serbia was preparing [its] resolution in the UN, Tadic changed the course literally over night, during a meeting with EU High Representative Catherine Ashton. The capital he gained with this brave move was huge, however, the President then got scared of himself. He avoided explaining the quality of this policy, he refused to advocate for it. He backed down, because he was afraid that he would be punished by clero-nationalists – he is counting on their voices, as well." “He failed to calculate that a well defined and clearly stated standpoint would mean that he would win more votes than he would loose. Thus, once again, as in the times of cohabitation [of Tadic’s Democratic Party (DS) and Vojislav Kostunica’s Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS)] we started sliding into populism. Everything was hidden by the magic formula “both Kosovo and Europe”. “Then Merkel came, and unusually openly said that this formula was not valid. Either Serbia recognizes Kosovo as its neighboring state and normalizes its relations with Kosovo, or Auf wiedersehen Europe. Tadic saw a world that he invested significant political capital in collapse before his eyes. Candidacy will not happened by the end of the year. The key argument that the Democrats were intending to enter the electoral campaign with, is lost. (…) Aware of the number of Serbian voters who do not want Serbia ‘to loose’ Kosovo, as well as the influence of the Serbian Orthodox Church, Tadic had no choice but to publicly reject Merkel’s recommendations. This will earn him the votes of those who admire him in the words borrowed from Slobodan Milosevic: Serbia will not bow down. He looses those [who want Serbia in the EU]." “DS may loose the elections without the candidacy, but it cannot win without Kosovo. Which only means that the state policy will most certainly not change until the winner [of the elections in] 2012 is determined. (…) Tadic can, for a large part, thank himself on the position he is in. Or share the responsibility with his advisors and all those who are crowding to make him the leader in the region." “It is true that Europe lied when it lulled Serbia with the statements that the process of European integrations of Serbia and the solution to the Kosovo problem are two separate issues. It is also true that this suited Belgrade. I never believed (…) that these two processes were separate. It had to be clear that, at some point, at a certain moment, EU and Kosovo would have to meet. And they met. In Belgrade. When I think more about it, I like that the German Chancellor was so unambiguous. She canceled the possibility of spreading optimism, canceled the rhetorical gymnastics, the calculations that we can do everything. The fog has cleared”, Bosko Jaksic writes.

"Tadić painted himself into corner"

“At cross purposes… Tadić said then that institutions in North Kosovo were not parallel, but the only institutions – Serbia’s. Germany neither wants parallel, but the only institutions – Kosovo’s. What should we do now?”(…)," Boško Jakšić wrote.

“The hosts were unpleasantly surprised – not because they did not know what Germans think, but because they thought that Germans would not drive them into the corner. It was a public execution [of Tadić’s] motto ‘Both Kosovo and Europe’. The candidacy turned from ‘sure thing’ into a gaseous state.”

“Since Serbia’s elite still consider that Serbia’s national issue is not resolved yet, the politicians collected themselves soon and started voicing slogans, which, it seems that way, are closest to them.”

“’The patriotic Serbia’, the EU is sick and tired of, was thrilled. The realistic Serbia, that thinks that Kosovo has been lost for a long time as well as that Kosovo Serbs should be helped, just like Serbs in independent Bosnia-Herzegovina, silently monitors the developments.”

“Tadić had to appear in public and say that there ‘is a possibility’ Serbia would not get the EU member-country candidate status this year. Why? Because Serbia cannot accept the condition to abolish her institutions in North Kosovo.”

“Tadić made a decision not to abandon his people in Kosovo, (who has ever asked for such a thing?) but, is he ready to give up his ‘primary strategic objective’ – as he used to describe accession to the EU so many times? He says that he is not, that Serbia will not give up EU integration processes, but it is just a wishful thinking, a nice slogan. Decisions on the future of Serbia’s EU integrations are not made in Belgrade, but in Brussels and Berlin.”

“Tadić still believes that it is still possible to eat your cake and to have it. If not today, then it will happen tomorrow, next year: ‘I’m sure that Serbia will meet any criterion which is in line with the Copenhagen criteria, but we will see whether the EU is going to meet her part of the job’.”

“What Copenhagen criteria?! These were not written for candidates that have Kosovo. Whether EU is going to meet her portion of the job? The EU does meet it, to Serbia’s regret the EU does it systematically, in an organized manner, with a clearly defined objective, in a way Serbia does not want to do it, because Serbia has been going zigzag, Serbia does not know what she is going to do without Kosovo, because she does not know what she shall do with Kosovo.”

“Politicians are trying to avoid taking ‘either-or’ standpoints. Since Merkel destroyed the dreams about ‘and-and’ – both Kosovo and the EU – Tadić is now in an ‘either-or’ situation. If he agrees with Merkel, it would mean admitting to the defeat of the current politics and would make many Serbs very angry, especially people living in northern Kosovo. Refusing means at least temporarily parting with Europe. “Both options have their electoral price, which means that the Democrats in power will have to look for new slogans and a new, middle solution. (…) The dilemma is dramatic. So dramatic that decisions should not be made over night or in one cabinet, not even the cabinet of the president.(...)"

"However, it is not the first time 180 degree turns are made. Last year, while Serbia was preparing [its] resolution in the UN, Tadić changed the course literally over night, during a meeting with EU High Representative Catherine Ashton. The capital he gained with this brave move was huge, however, the President then got scared of himself. He avoided explaining the quality of this policy, he refused to advocate for it. He backed down, because he was afraid that he would be punished by clero-nationalists – he is counting on their voices, as well."

“He failed to calculate that a well defined and clearly stated standpoint would mean that he would win more votes than he would loose. Thus, once again, as in the times of cohabitation [of Tadić’s Democratic Party (DS) and Vojislav Koštunica’s Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS)] we started sliding into populism. Everything was hidden by the magic formula “both Kosovo and Europe”.

“Then Merkel came, and unusually openly said that this formula was not valid. Either Serbia recognizes Kosovo as its neighboring state and normalizes its relations with Kosovo, or Auf wiedersehen Europe. Tadić saw a world that he invested significant political capital in collapse before his eyes. Candidacy will not happened by the end of the year. The key argument that the Democrats were intending to enter the electoral campaign with, is lost. (…) Aware of the number of Serbian voters who do not want Serbia ‘to loose’ Kosovo, as well as the influence of the Serbian Orthodox Church, Tadić had no choice but to publicly reject Merkel’s recommendations. This will earn him the votes of those who admire him in the words borrowed from Slobodan Milošević: Serbia will not bow down. He looses those [who want Serbia in the EU]."

“DS may loose the elections without the candidacy, but it cannot win without Kosovo. Which only means that the state policy will most certainly not change until the winner [of the elections in] 2012 is determined. (…) Tadić can, for a large part, thank himself on the position he is in. Or share the responsibility with his advisors and all those who are crowding to make him the leader in the region."

“It is true that Europe lied when it lulled Serbia with the statements that the process of European integrations of Serbia and the solution to the Kosovo problem are two separate issues. It is also true that this suited Belgrade. I never believed (…) that these two processes were separate. It had to be clear that, at some point, at a certain moment, EU and Kosovo would have to meet. And they met. In Belgrade. When I think more about it, I like that the German Chancellor was so unambiguous. She canceled the possibility of spreading optimism, canceled the rhetorical gymnastics, the calculations that we can do everything. The fog has cleared”, Boško Jakšić writes.