IMF predict economic growth for Serbia

Serbia will achieve economic growth this year and the next of four and six percent respectively, experts of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted.

Izvor: B92

Tuesday, 29.04.2008.

14:09

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Serbia will achieve economic growth this year and the next of four and six percent respectively, experts of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted. The growth rate last year was seven percent. Economists believe that the decrease was caused by the period spent on last parliamentary elections, campaigning and forming the cabinet. IMF predict economic growth for Serbia IMF experts stated that the biggest problem for countries in transition is the growth of foreign debt and the great demand for loans. Serbia had almost twice the GDP last year than the number planned for this year, but the inflation rate was also in the double digits. On the other hand, the economy ministry in the outgoing cabinet, led by G17 Plus, believes that this year will "not be that bad". “In accordance with the conservative nature of the IMF, its estimates are probably more stern, with pessimistic view of the effects of the political crisis we are going through and the effects of the elections ahead of us." "There is no doubt that if the pro-European forces win in the elections, the crisis will be shorter, after which we can expects without a doubt an investment boom, and in these conditions it will not be hard to control the inflation,” Jasna Matic of the economy ministry said. In an analysis of the European economy, IMF experts stated that economic growth in Croatia and Macedonia will be more than four percent. Bosnia-Herzegovina is expected to have growth of over five percent, while Montenegro will achieve the largest growth in the region, with seven percent. Serbia is at the bottom of the list with four percent. “The bottom rate in the region means that we are the most sensitive to loans. I do not agree with the estimates of the IMF because they base them on the notion that oil prices will fall. They do not include in their estimates eventual bombing of gas pipelines or sinking of tankers, which is why we have the current record prices of oil, and the loans which are more abundant, and because of this, Serbia will have more growth this year than the IMF estimates,” advisor of the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) Miroslav Zdravkovic is optimistic.

IMF predict economic growth for Serbia

IMF experts stated that the biggest problem for countries in transition is the growth of foreign debt and the great demand for loans.

Serbia had almost twice the GDP last year than the number planned for this year, but the inflation rate was also in the double digits.

On the other hand, the economy ministry in the outgoing cabinet, led by G17 Plus, believes that this year will "not be that bad".

“In accordance with the conservative nature of the IMF, its estimates are probably more stern, with pessimistic view of the effects of the political crisis we are going through and the effects of the elections ahead of us."

"There is no doubt that if the pro-European forces win in the elections, the crisis will be shorter, after which we can expects without a doubt an investment boom, and in these conditions it will not be hard to control the inflation,” Jasna Matić of the economy ministry said.

In an analysis of the European economy, IMF experts stated that economic growth in Croatia and Macedonia will be more than four percent. Bosnia-Herzegovina is expected to have growth of over five percent, while Montenegro will achieve the largest growth in the region, with seven percent.

Serbia is at the bottom of the list with four percent.

“The bottom rate in the region means that we are the most sensitive to loans. I do not agree with the estimates of the IMF because they base them on the notion that oil prices will fall. They do not include in their estimates eventual bombing of gas pipelines or sinking of tankers, which is why we have the current record prices of oil, and the loans which are more abundant, and because of this, Serbia will have more growth this year than the IMF estimates,” advisor of the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) Miroslav Zdravković is optimistic.

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