The worst and best of 2007

The worst and best of 2007 Six negative developments 1. Russia continued its march towards becoming a traditional 19th century authoritarian power, devoid of ideology other than a determination to once again be "great." Aided by skyrocketing prices for its natural resources and a population tired of years of humiliation and economic ruin, Vladimir Putin is becoming the new (and widely popular) Czar of Russia. The short and medium term problem is that Putin is a child of the Cold War and brings with him all the prejudices, antagonisms, and predispositions which characterized the KGB of that era. In fact, for him, that era still exists. And like a self-fulfilling prophecy, the steps, which he is taking, may well bring it back. The key area to watch will be the Russian "near abroad." Any step the countries in this region take which aligns them more to the West in terms of democracy, NATO membership, and EU membership (or dishonoring the Soviet role in those countries) will be seen by him as a serious provocation. The potential for a major clash with Russia in this area is high. 2. Pakistan slid towards anarchy. Even before the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, general opposition to the reign of President Musharraf grew from all ends of the spectrum. This included traditional political rivals, but also an increasingly powerful extreme Islamic fundamentalism. With the assassination, the situation is extremely dangerous. The Taliban and Al-Qaeda operate openly in parts of Pakistan already and their influence continues to grow. While Pakistan with its nuclear weapons is currently the country under greatest pressure, the same forces are at work in many other countries in the region, such as Saudi Arabia, Aghanistan and Egypt. One could well argue that the biggest damage resulting from the Iraq invasion may not be in Iraq itself, but in the shock waves it has released throughout the Middle East. 3. Stability in the Balkans has decreased. It is not a question of potentially good or bad outcomes in the aftermath of the upcoming Unilateral Declaration of Independence by the Kosovo Albanians and subsequent recognition by the United States and most of the European Union. It is simply which one of a variety of very bad scenarios will take place. The outlook for stability in Bosnia, Serbia proper, Macedonia, and Kosovo is very bleak. 4. The US sub-prime mortgage crisis has caused financial instability on a broad basis (including Europe). If it were just the millions of American homeowners who face the loss of their homes, it would not be as dangerous. But the enormous losses suffered by financial institutions all over the world has had major repercussions on their lending policies and interest rates they charge. In part because of this crisis, the United States faces a recession in the coming year and the impact of that will fall on all countries exporting to the U.S. and will lower overall world economic growth. 5. The United Nations once again has had its credibility and even legitimacy diminished. Whether the issue is Darfur, the Middle East Peace Process, the North Korean nuclear problem, or Kosovo, the United Nations is unable to deal with crises successfully and "coalitions of the willing" come together to act outside of UN channels. The nations guiltiest for this problem - and who complain most vigorously about it - are those with the veto power in the Security Council. Yet every single one would rather the organization be totally discredited than give up that veto power. 6. In almost every Western developed country, the press from illegal migration has both accelerated and caused a nationalistic backlash. Nowhere has a good formula been found to deal with this problem, which will only continue to worsen, given the massive income disparities in the world and the comparative ease of travel. The end result will be a combination of greatly increased internal security checks, the continued growth of nationalist parties, and even violence directed at the illegal (and even legal) immigrants. Regardless of all of the above, the ethnic makeup of the Western developed countries will continue to change. Eight positive developments 1. Knowledge of the dangers of global warming and the need to take action have passed "the tipping point," spurred by the awarding of the Nobel Peace Prize to Al Gore and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We can now look for more and more positive steps by governments, private citizens, and industry. At the same time, the degree of damage we are doing at current levels is so high and the push for more industrialization from developing countries like China is so strong it is hard to conceive that the impact of global warming will do anything but worsen for the foreseeable future. 2. For the first time in history, both a woman and a black are legitimate, powerful candidates for the next President of the United States. One may have to be American to understand just how important both candidacies are to our nation's development. 3. North Korea seems to be on a better track with regard to its nuclear program and overall international approach, thanks in large part to behind the scenes encouragement/pressure from China and also steps towards moderation from a reluctant Bush Administration. 4. The "surge" in Iraq has confounded skeptics (including myself) and significantly reduced violence there. The three ethnic groups are coming to informal arrangements among themselves, which have carved out informal spheres of influence. This has not, however, translated into formal political compromise or progress. The end result is that the situation does not look quite as bleak or quite as hopeless as it did six months ago. 5. The election of French President Sarkozy has brought new vigor to France. He has had the courage and dynamism to take on sacred cows of French Labor and begin to put in place the changes needed for France to grow economically. He is bringing the same energy to the EU and the global community. 6. Carla del Ponte finally is departing the ICTY, leaving behind a legacy of unnecessarily increasing nationalist tensions in the region, fueling the persistent belief that the actions of the ICTY were politically inspired and mishandling the key trial of her era: that of Slobodan Milosevic. 7. After years of backsliding, the European Union seems to have gotten its act together with regard to the Western Balkans. There is a new determination to provide assistance for the democratic transition and also a willingness to look at accelerated membership. 8. The EU has taken on two new members (Bulgaria and Romania) and expanded the list of countries under the Schengen Agreement by nine. This is a tremendous step forward for freedom of movement within the EU. It has the downside, however, of tightening up the requirements on countries outside of the zone. Serbia, for example, finds itself far more isolated now that at the height of the Milosevic years. In the very worst of those times, travel to Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria was easy. Now a visa must be obtained in advance for all three countries. The circle around Serbia is tightening…It will tighten even more when Croatia joins the EU and re-imposes visa restrictions on Serbia as a direct result. In the meantime, Croatia has problems of its own with entry into Slovenia. One mixed event with pluses and minuses The EU came to an agreement on modifications to make voting on many issues easier (no consensus needed); establishing a President; and an office for Foreign Affairs. While the end result will be more efficiency, it has been done by deliberately avoiding (except in one case where it is required by Constitution) taking the changes to a referendum by the voters. They know it would never pass. There is something inherently flawed about an organization which everybody knows does not have the solid support of its citizens. It is quite extraordinary how this does not attract more popular outrage. On top of the negative list: Vladimir Putin (Beta) Russia continued its march towards becoming a traditional 19th century authoritarian power, devoid of ideology other than a determination to once again be "great." William Montgomery Russia continued its march towards becoming a traditional 19th century authoritarian power, devoid of ideology other than a determination to once again be "great."

The worst and best of 2007

Six negative developments

1. Russia continued its march towards becoming a traditional 19th century authoritarian power, devoid of ideology other than a determination to once again be "great." Aided by skyrocketing prices for its natural resources and a population tired of years of humiliation and economic ruin, Vladimir Putin is becoming the new (and widely popular) Czar of Russia.

The short and medium term problem is that Putin is a child of the Cold War and brings with him all the prejudices, antagonisms, and predispositions which characterized the KGB of that era. In fact, for him, that era still exists. And like a self-fulfilling prophecy, the steps, which he is taking, may well bring it back. The key area to watch will be the Russian "near abroad."

Any step the countries in this region take which aligns them more to the West in terms of democracy, NATO membership, and EU membership (or dishonoring the Soviet role in those countries) will be seen by him as a serious provocation. The potential for a major clash with Russia in this area is high.

2. Pakistan slid towards anarchy. Even before the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, general opposition to the reign of President Musharraf grew from all ends of the spectrum. This included traditional political rivals, but also an increasingly powerful extreme Islamic fundamentalism. With the assassination, the situation is extremely dangerous.

The Taliban and Al-Qaeda operate openly in parts of Pakistan already and their influence continues to grow. While Pakistan with its nuclear weapons is currently the country under greatest pressure, the same forces are at work in many other countries in the region, such as Saudi Arabia, Aghanistan and Egypt. One could well argue that the biggest damage resulting from the Iraq invasion may not be in Iraq itself, but in the shock waves it has released throughout the Middle East.

3. Stability in the Balkans has decreased. It is not a question of potentially good or bad outcomes in the aftermath of the upcoming Unilateral Declaration of Independence by the Kosovo Albanians and subsequent recognition by the United States and most of the European Union. It is simply which one of a variety of very bad scenarios will take place. The outlook for stability in Bosnia, Serbia proper, Macedonia, and Kosovo is very bleak.

4. The US sub-prime mortgage crisis has caused financial instability on a broad basis (including Europe). If it were just the millions of American homeowners who face the loss of their homes, it would not be as dangerous. But the enormous losses suffered by financial institutions all over the world has had major repercussions on their lending policies and interest rates they charge. In part because of this crisis, the United States faces a recession in the coming year and the impact of that will fall on all countries exporting to the U.S. and will lower overall world economic growth.

5. The United Nations once again has had its credibility and even legitimacy diminished. Whether the issue is Darfur, the Middle East Peace Process, the North Korean nuclear problem, or Kosovo, the United Nations is unable to deal with crises successfully and "coalitions of the willing" come together to act outside of UN channels. The nations guiltiest for this problem - and who complain most vigorously about it - are those with the veto power in the Security Council. Yet every single one would rather the organization be totally discredited than give up that veto power.

6. In almost every Western developed country, the press from illegal migration has both accelerated and caused a nationalistic backlash. Nowhere has a good formula been found to deal with this problem, which will only continue to worsen, given the massive income disparities in the world and the comparative ease of travel.

The end result will be a combination of greatly increased internal security checks, the continued growth of nationalist parties, and even violence directed at the illegal (and even legal) immigrants. Regardless of all of the above, the ethnic makeup of the Western developed countries will continue to change.

Eight positive developments

1. Knowledge of the dangers of global warming and the need to take action have passed "the tipping point," spurred by the awarding of the Nobel Peace Prize to Al Gore and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We can now look for more and more positive steps by governments, private citizens, and industry.

At the same time, the degree of damage we are doing at current levels is so high and the push for more industrialization from developing countries like China is so strong it is hard to conceive that the impact of global warming will do anything but worsen for the foreseeable future.

2. For the first time in history, both a woman and a black are legitimate, powerful candidates for the next President of the United States. One may have to be American to understand just how important both candidacies are to our nation's development.

3. North Korea seems to be on a better track with regard to its nuclear program and overall international approach, thanks in large part to behind the scenes encouragement/pressure from China and also steps towards moderation from a reluctant Bush Administration.

4. The "surge" in Iraq has confounded skeptics (including myself) and significantly reduced violence there. The three ethnic groups are coming to informal arrangements among themselves, which have carved out informal spheres of influence. This has not, however, translated into formal political compromise or progress. The end result is that the situation does not look quite as bleak or quite as hopeless as it did six months ago.

5. The election of French President Sarkozy has brought new vigor to France. He has had the courage and dynamism to take on sacred cows of French Labor and begin to put in place the changes needed for France to grow economically. He is bringing the same energy to the EU and the global community.

6. Carla del Ponte finally is departing the ICTY, leaving behind a legacy of unnecessarily increasing nationalist tensions in the region, fueling the persistent belief that the actions of the ICTY were politically inspired and mishandling the key trial of her era: that of Slobodan Milošević.

7. After years of backsliding, the European Union seems to have gotten its act together with regard to the Western Balkans. There is a new determination to provide assistance for the democratic transition and also a willingness to look at accelerated membership.

8. The EU has taken on two new members (Bulgaria and Romania) and expanded the list of countries under the Schengen Agreement by nine. This is a tremendous step forward for freedom of movement within the EU. It has the downside, however, of tightening up the requirements on countries outside of the zone. Serbia, for example, finds itself far more isolated now that at the height of the Milošević years.

In the very worst of those times, travel to Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria was easy. Now a visa must be obtained in advance for all three countries. The circle around Serbia is tightening…It will tighten even more when Croatia joins the EU and re-imposes visa restrictions on Serbia as a direct result. In the meantime, Croatia has problems of its own with entry into Slovenia.

One mixed event with pluses and minuses

The EU came to an agreement on modifications to make voting on many issues easier (no consensus needed); establishing a President; and an office for Foreign Affairs. While the end result will be more efficiency, it has been done by deliberately avoiding (except in one case where it is required by Constitution) taking the changes to a referendum by the voters. They know it would never pass. There is something inherently flawed about an organization which everybody knows does not have the solid support of its citizens. It is quite extraordinary how this does not attract more popular outrage.