Kosovo: Belgrade ready to retaliate

Kosovo: Belgrade ready to retaliate Facing the prospect of losing some 15 per cent of its territory, Serbia seems ready for a list of measures, such as sealing the border with Kosovo and severing or downgrading diplomatic ties with the countries that recognize the self-proclaimed independent state. Violence on the ground cannot be excluded, but top state officials have said there would not be any military action. Serbian Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremic said on Tuesday that Belgrade’s diplomatic response to the recognition of the breakaway province would be within a wide spectrum from “the very mild to the very tough, the toughest one being cutting off diplomatic relations with countries which violate the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Serbia.” Speaking to the Serbian parliament, Jeremic said that there were seven levels of retaliatory measures, all of which were sent to the government for consideration, but he added that they were a state secret “which he could not discuss in public.’’ A source from the Serbian government told Balkan Insight that “all other ministries submitted plans to the Ministry for Kosovo, but there is no leak whatsoever.” For their part, Kosovo Albanian leaders say they do not fear any possible measures by Belgrade either in the medium or longer term. The international community, though seemingly not united on the recognition of Kosovo’s independence, has signaled it believes independence will happen. And it has unofficially warned that any serious counter-measures by Belgrade could only make life more difficult for Serbia. Meanwhile, Belgrade is plastered with huge billboards carrying photos of famous world leaders from Abraham Lincoln to George Washington and John F. Kennedy, from Charles de Gaulle and Winston Churchill to Willy Brandt. Next to some of their legendary remarks, the words ''Kosovo is Serbia'' have been added. The tit-for-tat vocabulary intensified after the last round of internationally-brokered talks on Kosovo failed, with Belgrade firmly rejecting independence and Pristina accepting nothing less than that. The next step is for the Troika of mediators from the EU, Russia and the US, to submit their report to UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon by Monday, December 10 Following the fruitless negotiations which ended in Austria on November 28, Kosovo leaders and most western countries remain in favor of the option of Kosovo’s internationally-supervised independence, as proposed by UN envoy Martti Ahtisaari. Speaking to the Gradjanski list daily in Serbia on Wednesday, Ivan Vejvoda, Director of the Balkan Trust for Democracy in Belgrade, said Kosovo was expected to declare independence some time in February 2008. He added that ''over 20, if not all of'' the EU countries would join the US in recognizing the territory’s independence. Such a prediction is not welcomed by official Serbia, which backed by Russia, strongly opposes Kosovo’s independence, with Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica of the conservative Democratic Party of Serbia, DSS, insisting that “all of Serbia needs to be united and show that for us it is illegal, and that Kosovo is an integral part of Serbia.” President Boris Tadic and Deputy Prime Minister Bozidar Djelic, both of the centrist Democratic Party, DS, have sent a similar message, saying that Serbia will use all legal and political means against “a hostile act” and that the ministries were “getting ready for the darkest scenario.” That scenario seemingly does not include any military action after Defense Minister Dragan Sutanovac, also from the DS, said that if Serbia tried to use its army and police in Kosovo, it would face the same defeat as it did in 1999, when NATO bombing forced the then president Slobodan Milosevic’s troops out of Kosovo. However, some saber rattling could be heard from Kostunica's camp. His advisor, Aleksandar Simic, told state television late on Tuesday that "war is a legal means too." Simic referred to the 1990s Balkan wars, saying Serbia "had some bad experience and that's why there is a lot of caution and patience now. But, the state interests are also defended by war." On Monday, Serbian Orthodox Bishop Artemije called for a general mobilization and for a closing down of the border with Kosovo. His war-cry, however, was met with disagreement by Serb MPs who suggested that he should either stay away from politics or organize his own party. Serbs from northern Kosovo bordering Serbia have also said that some violence could not be excluded, if Albanians from across the river Ibar tried to retake control of the divided town of Mitrovica by force. Political analysts believe that Serbia’s most likely answer to Kosovo independence might include an economic embargo on the entity which heavily depends on a wide range of supplies from Serbia. However, they caution that such a move would distance Serbia from the rest of Europe. Sources within the international community dealing with Kosovo also say Belgrade is unlikely to use force but they warn that any retaliation would meet a firm response. “We count on the [UN] Secretary-General’s powers,” a diplomatic source close to the issue, told Balkan Insight. He declined to specify, but other sources said that Russia’s strong opposition to any solution that was unacceptable to Belgrade, and the consequent threat of its veto in the Security Council, were behind such hopes. “If Belgrade really wants to join Europe, the leadership will have to think twice before taking any counter-measures against Kosovo,” the diplomatic source said. Media quoted William Montgomery, a former U.S. ambassador to Belgrade, as saying that a list of responses could include the setting up of "Serbian-controlled areas in Kosovo ... similar to those set up in Bosnia and Croatia 16 years ago". The other measures could include protests, closing the roads to Kosovo for trade and traffic and cutting off the power supply to the province. Such moves would also hit Kosovo’s Serb minority as well as the 16,000-strong NATO-led KFOR peacekeeping force. Vladimir Gligorov, a professor at the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, also believes that Belgrade could opt for a trade embargo on Kosovo, but doubts that would do Serbia any good. “The decision to halt trade with Kosovo would thus spoil relations with the EU. That and other retaliatory measures would probably mean a halt to [Serbia’s] EU integration process with significant consequences to trade and investment policies,” Gligorov told the Croatian financial internet portal Moj Novac. The UN Security Council is set to discuss Kosovo on December 19, following the ‘Troika’ report, and Serbia has demanded that Kosovo Albanian representatives should not be allowed to address the session as Kosovo’s constitutional framework envisages only their presence at the Security Council’s sessions. What option Serbia chooses in the end will depend also on the international community, with Foreign Minister Jeremic scheduled to hold meetings at UN headquarters in New York this week. “If he gets a clear message that Kosovo’s independence will have UN support, any harsh response by Belgrade will hurt Serbia the most,’’ the diplomatic source said. Julijana Mojsilovic is a Balkan insight contributor. Balkan Insight is BIRN`s online publication. One of the billboards the government uses to reinforce its claim over Kosovo (kim.sr.gov.yu) Ahead of the December 10 deadline for Kosovo’s status, there is mounting speculation about how the Serbian government is likely to respond to Kosovo’s anticipated declaration of independence. Julijana Mojsilovic Political analysts believe that Serbia’s most likely answer to Kosovo independence might include an economic embargo on the entity which heavily depends on a wide range of supplies from Serbia. However, they caution that such a move would distance Serbia from the rest of Europe.

Kosovo: Belgrade ready to retaliate

Facing the prospect of losing some 15 per cent of its territory, Serbia seems ready for a list of measures, such as sealing the border with Kosovo and severing or downgrading diplomatic ties with the countries that recognize the self-proclaimed independent state.

Violence on the ground cannot be excluded, but top state officials have said there would not be any military action.

Serbian Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremić said on Tuesday that Belgrade’s diplomatic response to the recognition of the breakaway province would be within a wide spectrum from “the very mild to the very tough, the toughest one being cutting off diplomatic relations with countries which violate the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Serbia.”

Speaking to the Serbian parliament, Jeremić said that there were seven levels of retaliatory measures, all of which were sent to the government for consideration, but he added that they were a state secret “which he could not discuss in public.’’

A source from the Serbian government told Balkan Insight that “all other ministries submitted plans to the Ministry for Kosovo, but there is no leak whatsoever.”

For their part, Kosovo Albanian leaders say they do not fear any possible measures by Belgrade either in the medium or longer term.

The international community, though seemingly not united on the recognition of Kosovo’s independence, has signaled it believes independence will happen. And it has unofficially warned that any serious counter-measures by Belgrade could only make life more difficult for Serbia.

Meanwhile, Belgrade is plastered with huge billboards carrying photos of famous world leaders from Abraham Lincoln to George Washington and John F. Kennedy, from Charles de Gaulle and Winston Churchill to Willy Brandt. Next to some of their legendary remarks, the words ''Kosovo is Serbia'' have been added.

The tit-for-tat vocabulary intensified after the last round of internationally-brokered talks on Kosovo failed, with Belgrade firmly rejecting independence and Priština accepting nothing less than that. The next step is for the Troika of mediators from the EU, Russia and the US, to submit their report to UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon by Monday, December 10

Following the fruitless negotiations which ended in Austria on November 28, Kosovo leaders and most western countries remain in favor of the option of Kosovo’s internationally-supervised independence, as proposed by UN envoy Martti Ahtisaari.

Speaking to the Građanski list daily in Serbia on Wednesday, Ivan Vejvoda, Director of the Balkan Trust for Democracy in Belgrade, said Kosovo was expected to declare independence some time in February 2008. He added that ''over 20, if not all of'' the EU countries would join the US in recognizing the territory’s independence.

Such a prediction is not welcomed by official Serbia, which backed by Russia, strongly opposes Kosovo’s independence, with Prime Minister Vojislav Koštunica of the conservative Democratic Party of Serbia, DSS, insisting that “all of Serbia needs to be united and show that for us it is illegal, and that Kosovo is an integral part of Serbia.”

President Boris Tadić and Deputy Prime Minister Božidar Đelić, both of the centrist Democratic Party, DS, have sent a similar message, saying that Serbia will use all legal and political means against “a hostile act” and that the ministries were “getting ready for the darkest scenario.”

That scenario seemingly does not include any military action after Defense Minister Dragan Šutanovac, also from the DS, said that if Serbia tried to use its army and police in Kosovo, it would face the same defeat as it did in 1999, when NATO bombing forced the then president Slobodan Milosevic’s troops out of Kosovo.

However, some saber rattling could be heard from Kostunica's camp. His advisor, Aleksandar Simić, told state television late on Tuesday that "war is a legal means too."

Simić referred to the 1990s Balkan wars, saying Serbia "had some bad experience and that's why there is a lot of caution and patience now. But, the state interests are also defended by war."

On Monday, Serbian Orthodox Bishop Artemije called for a general mobilization and for a closing down of the border with Kosovo. His war-cry, however, was met with disagreement by Serb MPs who suggested that he should either stay away from politics or organize his own party.

Serbs from northern Kosovo bordering Serbia have also said that some violence could not be excluded, if Albanians from across the river Ibar tried to retake control of the divided town of Mitrovica by force.

Political analysts believe that Serbia’s most likely answer to Kosovo independence might include an economic embargo on the entity which heavily depends on a wide range of supplies from Serbia. However, they caution that such a move would distance Serbia from the rest of Europe.

Sources within the international community dealing with Kosovo also say Belgrade is unlikely to use force but they warn that any retaliation would meet a firm response.

“We count on the [UN] Secretary-General’s powers,” a diplomatic source close to the issue, told Balkan Insight. He declined to specify, but other sources said that Russia’s strong opposition to any solution that was unacceptable to Belgrade, and the consequent threat of its veto in the Security Council, were behind such hopes.

“If Belgrade really wants to join Europe, the leadership will have to think twice before taking any counter-measures against Kosovo,” the diplomatic source said.

Media quoted William Montgomery, a former U.S. ambassador to Belgrade, as saying that a list of responses could include the setting up of "Serbian-controlled areas in Kosovo ... similar to those set up in Bosnia and Croatia 16 years ago".

The other measures could include protests, closing the roads to Kosovo for trade and traffic and cutting off the power supply to the province. Such moves would also hit Kosovo’s Serb minority as well as the 16,000-strong NATO-led KFOR peacekeeping force.

Vladimir Gligorov, a professor at the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, also believes that Belgrade could opt for a trade embargo on Kosovo, but doubts that would do Serbia any good. “The decision to halt trade with Kosovo would thus spoil relations with the EU.

That and other retaliatory measures would probably mean a halt to [Serbia’s] EU integration process with significant consequences to trade and investment policies,” Gligorov told the Croatian financial internet portal Moj Novac.

The UN Security Council is set to discuss Kosovo on December 19, following the ‘Troika’ report, and Serbia has demanded that Kosovo Albanian representatives should not be allowed to address the session as Kosovo’s constitutional framework envisages only their presence at the Security Council’s sessions.

What option Serbia chooses in the end will depend also on the international community, with Foreign Minister Jeremić scheduled to hold meetings at UN headquarters in New York this week.

“If he gets a clear message that Kosovo’s independence will have UN support, any harsh response by Belgrade will hurt Serbia the most,’’ the diplomatic source said.

Julijana Mojsilović is a Balkan insight contributor. Balkan Insight is BIRN`s online publication.