John McCain

John McCain The remaining two Democratic candidates, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton have almost no substantive differences between them. But they are in the midst of a riveting and lengthy battle for the Democratic nomination, which has split the party into two almost equal parts. Questions of gender and race loom large over the race. The Democratic challenge is to decide on their candidate for President without the competition turning nasty, without both candidates being wounded, and without the losing candidate and his/her supporters being so embittered/angered/frustrated that they stay home on election day. Any or all of the above would significantly boost Republican chances. The Republicans have the reverse problem. John McCain has such a large lead in delegates that it is impossible for the only remaining serious contender, Mike Huckabee, to catch him. McCain's challenge, however, is daunting. He confronts a badly fractured party with widely differing views on basic issues. Evangelical Christians and other hard line Republican conservatives do not trust him and do not believe he shares their values. Convincing them to come out in droves on Election Day to vote for him under any circumstances would be a formidable task. Huckabee's strong showing in some state primaries precisely reflects conservative unhappiness at the McCain candidacy. But he not only has to win over the conservatives, he has to do so while maintaining or expanding his traditional base of support among Republican moderates and independent voters. While they flirted with a variety of other candidates, in the end the Republicans ended up with the only candidate who legitimately has a chance to win the Presidency. John McCain is a genuine war hero, who spent six years as a Prisoner of War in Vietnam, but was also instrumental as a Senator in bringing about reconciliation between the two countries almost two decades later. While critics can find flaws and twists and turns in some of his policy positions over time, the strong public perception is that he makes his own mind up about the issues and isn't afraid of the repercussions. Consequently, he has defied the Republican Party on key issues like immigration (where he favors a more moderate, conciliatory approach), global warming, torture (where he can speak authoritatively as one who was tortured as a POW), and campaign finance. In a famous speech in the primaries of 2000, he called two icons of the evangelical right, Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell, "agents of intolerance." The evangelicals have never forgiven him. All of the above has won him a strong following among moderate Republicans and independent voters. This is the case although on many issues he has followed a more conservative line. He has a lifetime 82% positive voting rating given by the American Conservative Union. While the American people and most Presidential hopefuls have steadily been more and more negative about the Iraq War, he again went against the grain and supported the "surge" in troops. His position on the war (although critical of its implementation) is close to that of President Bush. He calls his campaign "The Straight Talk Express," emphasizing that he will tell it like it is. He consistently slams those candidates whose positions seem to shift with the prevailing political winds and based on polls of popular opinion. In theory this should play very well against Hillary Clinton, who has consistently been charged with doing just that. Six months ago, McCain was written off by virtually everybody. His campaign was imploding. But a major shakeup of his staff and his dogged determination ultimately paid enormous dividends. His strengths are his courage; his war record; his demonstrated willingness to stand up for his beliefs; his ability to work constructively and effectively with both parties (Barack Obama talks about doing this, but McCain actually has); and his "gravitas" in general and in security/national defense issues in particular. One particular vulnerability is his age (72). If elected, he would be the oldest person elected for a first term in history. This is both a legitimate concern (will he be able to stand up to the physical and mental toll of being President) and it also makes his choice of a running mate for Vice President more important than is normally the case. He needs to choose carefully to continue to successfully walk the tightrope between his split constituencies. Another issue, which may well surface, is his rather famous temper. The long, stressful campaign process is the perfect environment to bring it out in perhaps a very costly manner. It is hard to see how he can avoid any episodes in the next nine months! But at the end of the day, it comes back to this conundrum: he is popular exactly because he is perceived as not pandering to the politically correct position and holding to his own views, his own values - regardless of what they are. If his moderate and independent supporters perceive that he is changing his views or shading them to pander to the Republican right, he will lose them and the election. At the same time, unless he can convince the Republican right and evangelicals to come out in droves to vote for him despite their qualms, he also loses. One can be sure that both Democrats in the running now are watching like hawks virtually every word and policy statement he makes to tear down his "straight talk" image. An example of this dilemma is President Bush's statement that McCain is "a true conservative." This was followed by speculation that in the actual Presidential election campaign, President Bush will do some selective campaigning and fund raising for the Republican candidate. While this may help to convince some of the more conservative Republicans to support McCain, it may well also convince even more moderates and conservatives to vote Democratic. In theory, McCain should now be able to use this valuable time to give his staff (and himself) time to relax and prepare for the stress of the oncoming election battle; raise campaign funds; formulate his strategy for the coming Presidential campaign; and begin building bridges with all the groups he needs to win. Given the Clinton/Obama deadlock, this would be an important advantage. But the pesky Mike Huckabee will not go away and keeps winning enough support in primaries to hammer home the point that the truly conservative Republicans are not happy with McCain. The Democrats are hoping that McCain will have to "move right" at some point to counter the Huckabee challenge. They will then use this as raw material in the actual Presidential campaign against him. The key variables to look for in the coming campaign are: -Race, gender, and age issues. All three are very much at play. This at times has led to polling data being extremely wrong, as many voters are reluctant to express their concerns/beliefs on any of the three. -The amount of bitterness engendered in the Democratic campaign and how much the public perception of the two candidates is damaged by it. -Who wins the Democratic nomination? Conventional wisdom has McCain doing much better against Hillary Clinton, as she and her husband are so hated by the Republican Right that they would come out in droves to vote against her. This in turn will enable him to continue to push for the moderate and independent vote. One columnist months ago wrote that it would take two miracles for the Republicans to have even a chance to win the White House in the face of the coming Democratic avalanche. The two miracles would be John McCain winning the Republican Nomination and Hillary Clinton the Democratic. -Finally, the major issues right now are the economy and the desire for "change." A major terrorist attack in the United States or continued, significant improvement in Iraq could significantly help McCain. Similarly, a significant downturn in Iraq could doom his chances. Holding his own views, values: John McCain (Beta) The contrast between the Democratic and Republican primary election campaigns is striking. The Democrats are virtually united on policy questions and are highly motivated. In the primary races to date, voters in the democratic primaries have been about 60% of the overall total with the Republicans turning out only the remaining 40%. William Montgomery "While critics can find flaws and twists and turns in some of his policy positions over time, the strong public perception is that he makes his own mind up about the issues and isn't afraid of the repercussions."

John McCain

The remaining two Democratic candidates, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton have almost no substantive differences between them. But they are in the midst of a riveting and lengthy battle for the Democratic nomination, which has split the party into two almost equal parts. Questions of gender and race loom large over the race.

The Democratic challenge is to decide on their candidate for President without the competition turning nasty, without both candidates being wounded, and without the losing candidate and his/her supporters being so embittered/angered/frustrated that they stay home on election day. Any or all of the above would significantly boost Republican chances.

The Republicans have the reverse problem. John McCain has such a large lead in delegates that it is impossible for the only remaining serious contender, Mike Huckabee, to catch him. McCain's challenge, however, is daunting. He confronts a badly fractured party with widely differing views on basic issues. Evangelical Christians and other hard line Republican conservatives do not trust him and do not believe he shares their values.

Convincing them to come out in droves on Election Day to vote for him under any circumstances would be a formidable task. Huckabee's strong showing in some state primaries precisely reflects conservative unhappiness at the McCain candidacy. But he not only has to win over the conservatives, he has to do so while maintaining or expanding his traditional base of support among Republican moderates and independent voters.

While they flirted with a variety of other candidates, in the end the Republicans ended up with the only candidate who legitimately has a chance to win the Presidency. John McCain is a genuine war hero, who spent six years as a Prisoner of War in Vietnam, but was also instrumental as a Senator in bringing about reconciliation between the two countries almost two decades later.

While critics can find flaws and twists and turns in some of his policy positions over time, the strong public perception is that he makes his own mind up about the issues and isn't afraid of the repercussions. Consequently, he has defied the Republican Party on key issues like immigration (where he favors a more moderate, conciliatory approach), global warming, torture (where he can speak authoritatively as one who was tortured as a POW), and campaign finance. In a famous speech in the primaries of 2000, he called two icons of the evangelical right, Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell, "agents of intolerance." The evangelicals have never forgiven him.

All of the above has won him a strong following among moderate Republicans and independent voters. This is the case although on many issues he has followed a more conservative line. He has a lifetime 82% positive voting rating given by the American Conservative Union. While the American people and most Presidential hopefuls have steadily been more and more negative about the Iraq War, he again went against the grain and supported the "surge" in troops.

His position on the war (although critical of its implementation) is close to that of President Bush. He calls his campaign "The Straight Talk Express," emphasizing that he will tell it like it is. He consistently slams those candidates whose positions seem to shift with the prevailing political winds and based on polls of popular opinion. In theory this should play very well against Hillary Clinton, who has consistently been charged with doing just that.

Six months ago, McCain was written off by virtually everybody. His campaign was imploding. But a major shakeup of his staff and his dogged determination ultimately paid enormous dividends. His strengths are his courage; his war record; his demonstrated willingness to stand up for his beliefs; his ability to work constructively and effectively with both parties (Barack Obama talks about doing this, but McCain actually has); and his "gravitas" in general and in security/national defense issues in particular.

One particular vulnerability is his age (72). If elected, he would be the oldest person elected for a first term in history. This is both a legitimate concern (will he be able to stand up to the physical and mental toll of being President) and it also makes his choice of a running mate for Vice President more important than is normally the case. He needs to choose carefully to continue to successfully walk the tightrope between his split constituencies.

Another issue, which may well surface, is his rather famous temper. The long, stressful campaign process is the perfect environment to bring it out in perhaps a very costly manner. It is hard to see how he can avoid any episodes in the next nine months!

But at the end of the day, it comes back to this conundrum: he is popular exactly because he is perceived as not pandering to the politically correct position and holding to his own views, his own values - regardless of what they are. If his moderate and independent supporters perceive that he is changing his views or shading them to pander to the Republican right, he will lose them and the election. At the same time, unless he can convince the Republican right and evangelicals to come out in droves to vote for him despite their qualms, he also loses. One can be sure that both Democrats in the running now are watching like hawks virtually every word and policy statement he makes to tear down his "straight talk" image.

An example of this dilemma is President Bush's statement that McCain is "a true conservative." This was followed by speculation that in the actual Presidential election campaign, President Bush will do some selective campaigning and fund raising for the Republican candidate. While this may help to convince some of the more conservative Republicans to support McCain, it may well also convince even more moderates and conservatives to vote Democratic.

In theory, McCain should now be able to use this valuable time to give his staff (and himself) time to relax and prepare for the stress of the oncoming election battle; raise campaign funds; formulate his strategy for the coming Presidential campaign; and begin building bridges with all the groups he needs to win. Given the Clinton/Obama deadlock, this would be an important advantage. But the pesky Mike Huckabee will not go away and keeps winning enough support in primaries to hammer home the point that the truly conservative Republicans are not happy with McCain. The Democrats are hoping that McCain will have to "move right" at some point to counter the Huckabee challenge. They will then use this as raw material in the actual Presidential campaign against him.

The key variables to look for in the coming campaign are:

-Race, gender, and age issues. All three are very much at play. This at times has led to polling data being extremely wrong, as many voters are reluctant to express their concerns/beliefs on any of the three.

-The amount of bitterness engendered in the Democratic campaign and how much the public perception of the two candidates is damaged by it.

-Who wins the Democratic nomination? Conventional wisdom has McCain doing much better against Hillary Clinton, as she and her husband are so hated by the Republican Right that they would come out in droves to vote against her. This in turn will enable him to continue to push for the moderate and independent vote. One columnist months ago wrote that it would take two miracles for the Republicans to have even a chance to win the White House in the face of the coming Democratic avalanche. The two miracles would be John McCain winning the Republican Nomination and Hillary Clinton the Democratic.

-Finally, the major issues right now are the economy and the desire for "change." A major terrorist attack in the United States or continued, significant improvement in Iraq could significantly help McCain. Similarly, a significant downturn in Iraq could doom his chances.