Tadić celebrates with supporters: Result looks better than it is? (FoNet)

This time round in new parliamentary elections brought about by the political convulsions of the Kosovo independence decision the Tadić bloc of parties (For a European Serbia) has beaten the Radicals again, coming first in Sunday's elections by some way.

This result looks better than it was. Had the Radicals joined Koštunica's party in an electoral bloc, they could have come first. As it is, a coalition of Radicals plus Koštunica's party plus rump Miloševites might find it easier to form a majority than the Tadić bloc, who are some way short of a majority despite this good showing last night.

So, much as before.

A huge majority of Serbs opposes Kosovo's independence. But they are divided on how to respond. The elections have not changed much. As expected.

The Tadić tendency argues that Serbia should stand firm on the issue of principle but press on towards EU membership. The Radical tendency says that the Kosovo issue needs a firmer response, with Serbia pursuing a more balanced policy - Yes to 'Europe' but also Yes to Russia.

The consistently baffling feature in all this is Koštunica, an intelligent and not illiberal expert on constitutionalism who has ended up trapped in a personal maze of dysfunctional nationalist pedantry.

A key moment was the rushed visit to Belgrade in October 2000 by then Russian Foreign Minister Ivanov. Ivanov's visit helped clinch Koštunica's victory over Milošević.

Russian diplomats had confidently expected Milošević to prevail in those elections, if not by winning fairly then by cheating on a large but efficient scale and staying on in power. The scale of Milošević's defeat and the subsequent popular pro-Western mobilisation against him left their complacent policy in excellent disarray. Ivanov was sent direct from a visit to India to try to salvage something from the wreckage.

What assurances did Koštunica give him then on the handing over of Serb indictees to the Hague Tribunal, or otherwise?

Right from the start, and despite everything he knew about how US/EU governments had helped the anti-Milošević campaign and his own, Koštunica seemed to think that he had won his new prominence on the basis of his own political acumen and cleverness. But as Zoran Đinđić told a roaring Belgrade crowd in a later election campaign, "Koštunica did not walk to power - we carried him!"

Koštunica's equivocation on almost every issue he has dealt with has been a sad sight. He parks himself on lofty but formalistic Positions of Principle with no idea on how to make actual progress, so he and Serbia usually end up worse off. His personal inability to come up with (and market) creative and interesting ideas for dealing with Kosovo has led Serbia to its current impasse. And his ducking and weaving on the transfer of Karadžić and Mladić to the Hague have been hugely damaging to Serbia's international credibility.

Basically, back in 2000 Koštunica was handed on a plate the chance to become one of Europe's great leaders, defining with Havel a vision of post-communist society based on robust but intelligent national positions and a clear if conservative-minded moral vision.

Koštunica instead has shrivelled away into a sulky corner, not without some residual power and influence but with nothing to offer which anyone wants for its own sake. Serbia in turn has underperformed and failed to use its opportunities.

If Koštunica now sides at last with the Radicals and Miloševites to keep out Tadić's bloc, his moral collapse will be complete. More likely he will try to stay independent and so act as some sort of ad hoc power-broker - but with a view to achieving precisely nothing.

Charles Crawford is a British diplomat and a former ambassador to Belgrade. This article originally appeared on charlescrawford.biz

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