Agreements Quell Fears of Post-Referendum Unrest

Pro-independence and pro-union parties settle on rules for May's independence vote, with the EU as guarantor

Author: Petar Komnenic
Source: Balkan Insight

The possibility of an internal conflict breaking out in Montenegro after the May 21 referendum on the future of the republic's state union with Serbia appears to have been ruled out by an amicable agreement between pro-independence and pro-union camps about how the vote is to be conducted.

The European Union, for its part, has guaranteed that the agreed rules will be complied with.

The government - a coalition of the Democratic Party of Socialists, DPS, and the Social Democrats, SDP - wants independence for Montenegro. Their cause is supported by several minor parties in parliament, such as the Liberal Party and the Civic Party, whose members have advocated independence for the republic ever since the former Yugoslavia started to break up.

A number of parties representing Montenegro's Albanian, Muslim and Croat minorities also support the pro-independence bloc. They were joined recently by a non-government organisation called the Movement for Independence, which rallies intellectuals, prominent public figures and independence-minded citizens.

The pro-union bloc comprises the Socialist People's Party, SNP, the strongest opposition party, the People's Party, NS, the Democratic Serb Party and the Serb People's Party.

They are backed by The Movement for a European State Union of Serbia and Montenegro, a counterforce to the Movement for Independence.

The pro-union opposition protested strongly last year when the authorities declared their intention to hold the referendum, arguing that it would result in an internal conflict because a democratic atmosphere had not been created in Montenegro.

After the opposition eventually asked for EU arbitration, Brussels started negotiations with the authorities on the rules that would apply to the voting.

With the mediation of the EU's special envoy, Miroslav Lajcak, the two sides agreed that 55 per cent of the voters who turn up must vote for independence in order for Montenegro to become an independent state.

Although unhappy with the EU proposition, the government voted in favour along with the opposition and passed new legislation allowing Montenegro's citizens to decide its future status.

The agreement has now eased tension and paved the way for a peaceful outcome, now seen as certain by political leaders and analysts alike.

Dragan Soc, a senior People's Party official, has warned several times that the referendum might trigger violence. But he now believes it will not be a security threat, as long as it is conducted in line with the rules.

"My previous warnings that a war could break out were made after the pro-independence leaders said they would declare victory even if they won less than 55 per cent of the vote," he said.

"Brussels got involved in the negotiating process and the international community is now a guarantor that no such thing will happen."

Dragan Kujovic, the DPS vice-president and the deputy speaker of parliament, said the referendum rules set with the EU's mediation had quelled fears that the process might plunge Montenegro into a civil war.

"The attempt to portray the referendum as a security threat and an instability factor is hollow political rhetoric by those who don't want the referendum to take place because they know the unionists will lose," he said.

"Anyone who forces the issue will have to say why they went along with the referendum but I don't expect anyone will from now on."

Kujovic is convinced that the Montenegrin authorities will play by the rules and refrain from taking one-sided action that could build up more tension.

"I am certain the citizens will vote for an independent state of Montenegro by an overwhelming majority. Hence we have no reason not to play by the rules," Kujovic said.

SNP officials say they will engage in a positive campaign devoid of hate speech or attempts to whip up tension. A senior party official, Vasilije Lalosevic, told Balkan Insight that the SNP would outline to the population the political, economic and geo-strategic advantages of keeping the state union together.

He, too, believes that passing the referendum law ruled out the possibility of unilateral action, adding that the EU had played a very important role in the process.

"We will observe the law drawn up with European Union's mediation and I am convinced the EU will make sure the same rule applies to the pro-independence bloc," Lalosevic said.

Momcilo Vuksanovic, one of the leaders of the movement for keeping the state union together, said he has his doubts about the government's readiness to play by the rules, however. He believes it will be hard to control the pro-independence bloc's behaviour.

"If the referendum takes place in line with the rules recommended by the European Union, it won't be a security issue. However, I am quite sure that these terms will not be honoured and that the authorities have already set in motion all the illegal mechanisms at hand such as buying off votes and bringing pressure to bear on the voters through the police and media," he said.

"If that trend continues, the referendum may become a security threat," Vuksanovic said.

Dragan Rosandic, a political analyst close to the pro-unionist bloc, says organising a referendum in a society as divided as Montenegro's was always going to be risky because a large section of the population will see the outcome as a defeat, either way. Rosandic nevertheless believes it is encouraging that the two political blocs have agreed on the conditions for holding the referendum.

"Also encouraging is the role of the European Union as a buffer zone between the two sides and a guarantor that both of them will play by the rules," Rosandic said.

Srdja Vukadinovic, a pro-independence sociologist and analyst, says the security threat was eliminated the moment the international community got involved in the process and its implementation.

Petar Komnenic is a correspondent for the independent Montenegrin weekly Monitor. Balkan Insight is BIRN's online publication.

This article was published with the support of the British embassy in Belgrade, as part of BIRN's Minority Media Training and Reporting Project.