By R. Jeffrey Smith

The central issue in Montenegro's parliamentary elections on Sunday is depicted by campaign posters plastered everywhere in the capital with the names of the two rival coalitions, "Victory is Montenegro's" and "Together for Yugoslavia."

If the former grouping wins, as recent polls predict, impoverished Montenegro will have taken a crucial step toward becoming the fifth and final republic to wrench itself away from the Yugoslav federation, which has been dominated by Serbia since 1989.

That's the confident prediction of Milo Djukanovic, Montenegro's 39-year-old president and the architect of his party's strategy to pursue independence this year over the objections of the United States, the European Union, the Serbian government and Yugoslav leaders.

In a late-night interview after a day of final preparations, Djukanovic said he felt certain the election would ratify his determination to secure a new place for Montenegro in the world, as a member of the United Nations and international financial institutions.

Djukanovic, whose separatist policies were supported by the West while Yugoslavia was governed by Slobodan Milosevic, expressed frustration that U.S. and European officials have switched positions and claimed that its independence could provoke fresh instability in the Balkans.

Describing Montenegro's independence as the "inevitable" culmination of post-communist world trends, Djukanovic said "if it were not so important to have a state, then all the other [republics] would not have had their own state . . . [and we] wouldn't have had 22 new states established in Europe after the fall of the Berlin Wall." Washington and allied capitals have urged Montenegro to reach a compromise with Serbian and Yugoslav leaders to gain more political prominence within the existing federation. Otherwise, they have said, Montenegro's departure will unsettle Serbia and hasten an independence drive in the neighboring Serbian province of Kosovo.

But privately, some Western diplomats say Yugoslavia's further dissolution is inevitable, given the resentments over Milosevic's rule that still linger after his ouster in October. "The Balkans are not stable anyway," even without Montenegro becoming independent, one diplomat said. "Kosovo wants independence now. But the international community thinks we can avoid discussing it as long as Montenegro is part of the [Yugoslav] fold. We're just in denial."

Djukanovic has said he firmly rejects the West's stated position that with Milosevic gone, Yugoslav officials can respond adequately to Montenegro's desire for elevated status. He said he sees little difference between Milosevic -- who pursued a "Serbia-first" policy throughout the region -- and his successor, Vojislav Kostunica.

Djukanovic asserts that with independence, Montenegro would adopt Western economic reforms more rapidly than Serbia would, without being saddled with that republic's multibillion-dollar debts.

"They will eventually walk the same path. But we do not want to waste time," he said. He envisions instead a loose union of Serbia, Montenegro and neighboring states to pursue free trade, joint participation in peacekeeping and a common currency – the euro.

However, Western officials say that Djukanovic has failed to scrap a stifling system of communist patronage and end political interference in the scenic, mountainous republic's potentially prosperous tourism sector. Italian and other officials also have expressed concern about alleged links between Djukanovic's government and organized crime, including a lucrative trade in cigarette smuggling.

These problems have been raised repeatedly by leaders of the opposition "Together for Yugoslavia" coalition. But the coalition has had difficulty presenting an alternate path to prosperity, because many of its supporters are fans of Milosevic and hostile to economic or political integration with the West.

Recent polling by the U.S.-funded National Democracy Institute forecast a vote of 57 percent in favor of the three pro-independence parties, with just 30 percent supporting "Together for Yugoslavia" and a separate, anti-independence party.

© 2001 The Washington Post Company