By Carlotta Gall

"Good morning,Montenegro, good night, Yugoslavia!" shouted the first speaker at the government's final rally this week before parliamentary elections on Sunday.

The voting will probably set the course for the independence of tiny Montenegro from its sister republic, Serbia, and thus spell the end of federated Yugoslavia, an experiment that dissolved in blood twice in the last century.

Despite opposition from the United States and European governments, which want no more border changes in the Balkans, President Milo Djukanovic of Montenegro is making a determined effort to lead his republic to independence. If, as polls predict, his coalition wins the election, he has said, he intends to call a referendum on independence for the summer.

If independence is approved, Montenegro will follow the other republics of the former Communist Yugoslavia - Slovenia, Croatia, Macedonia and Bosnia and Herzegovina - in the decade-long break with Belgrade.

Leaders in Serbia, including the Yugoslav president, Vojislav Kostunica, who would be out of a job with the dissolution of Yugoslavia, are opposed to the secession effort but have said they would respect voters' wishes.

Despite the international opposition, Western diplomats in this mountainous redoubt of 600,000 people say independence may become inevitable. Opinion polls predict that Mr. Djukanovic's coalition will win up to 44 percent of the vote. The pro- independence Liberal Alliance may secure as much as 12 percent.

The two could form a government and, with a simple majority in parliament, call a referendum.

An estimated 55 to 60 percent would vote for independence in a referendum, polls indicate. Although a majority, the pro-independence politicians concede that is probably not enough to convince Serbia and the world. The government is also widely expected to fall short of the two-thirds majority in parliament needed to approve changes to the Constitution that would seal a referendum result.

"The key thing is if they can win a two-thirds majority in this election," said Peter Palmer, a senior analyst for the International Crisis Group, a research organization that has focused on the Balkans. "But if they don't, it will not stop the process."

He predicted extensive political wrangling, allegations of fraud from the opposition and even isolated violence. "Probably," Mr. Palmer said, "we are in for a rather difficult period after the elections."

The opposition to independence is led by the Coalition for Yugoslavia and dominated by the Socialist People's Party, which was an ally of Slobodan Milosevic until he was ousted in October as Yugoslav president by a popular revolt in Serbia.

The Socialists have been joined by the People's Party, which precipitated the early elections when it left the government coalition over calls for independence. The Socialists' leader, Predrag Bulatovic, said in an interview in the capital he would respect the democratic process and seek to calm tensions over the voting.

Montenegro's fiercely clannish inhabitants are deeply split over the identity issue. Some argue that they are a separate ethnic group, others that they are Serbs. The pro-Serb parties are predicted to win 26 percent of the vote, enough to block changes in the Constitution and bolster their argument that Montenegro needs ties with Serbia to prosper.

A top adviser to President Djukanovic, Miodrag Vukovic, said the strength of the result would dictate the speed of the push to resolve the independence debate, which has grown in importance here since Mr. Milosevic's ouster. Before then, the West had supported Mr. Djukanovic as a foil to the authoritarian government in Belgrade.

Foreign governments argue that Montenegro's independence will encourage further fissure in the Balkans. The militant Serb and Croat communities could seek to split from Bosnia, and the Albanian majority in Kosovo province might push harder for independence from Serbia.

Diplomats here said foreign governments would therefore urge the new government to go slowly. But they conceded that Mr. Djukanovic no longer heeded them.

The president has plunged into the campaign, speaking at many rallies. The coalition put on a big display for thousands of supporters at its last rally in the capital, with banks of speakers blaring out music, video screens and a police helicopter circling overhead.

"Montenegro will be restored with all its rights," he told the crowd as it chanted his name, "Milo! Milo! The time has come."

He said he had refused to push for independence under Mr. Milosevic because that would have meant war pitting Montenegro against Serbia's 10 million people.

"But on the threshold of the 21st century, Montenegro is democratic and mature enough to take hold of its destiny and take its place in the European family," Mr. Djukanovic said.

He criticized Serbia for supporting a joint state, but not respecting Montenegro, and said he would continue to seek a close relationship with Serbia after independence.

"Serbia will not have a more loyal friend than Montenegro," he added. "But we are only demanding to have our own house to ourselves."