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THE INDEPENDENT (London)
21 April 2001
Montenegro vote could clear way for
independence
By Vesna Peric Zimonjic in Podgorica, Montenegro
The Montenegrin President, Milo Djukanovic, faces allegations
of smuggling on the eve of elections that could eventually
lead to the break-up of Yugoslavia.
A clear victory for pro- independence parties in tomorrow's
poll would clear the way for an early referendum on
secession from Serbia, the only other constituent of
the Yugoslav Federation.
But opponents of Mr Djukanovic, once a darling of the
West, point out that he has allowed the country to become
a paradise for cigarette smuggling. Italian investigators
believe that transit fraud could account for as much
as 60 per cent of Montenegro's gross domestic product,
which totalled $700m (£500m) in 1999.
Analysts believe that the illicit trade will only get
worse if Montenegro opts for and wins independence from
Belgrade. Jonathan Eyal, of the Royal United Services
Institute, a think-tank in London, said: "We'll
probably see the creation of another Mickey Mouse state,
a smugglers' paradise, totally dependent on foreign
aid."
But Mr Djukanovic's breakaway bid from Belgrade will
in any case face an uphill task.
The latest opinion polls show that his "Victory
Belongs to Montenegro" coalition will obtain some
42 per cent of votes in tomorrow's ballot. The second
largest group will be pro-Belgrade "Together for
Yugoslavia" coalition, with some 25 per cent of
votes. The remaining votes are expected to be shared
among 11 small parties and groups. All of this in a
country where the voters number fewer than 500,000.
The complicated mathematics of tiny Montenegro's elections
suggest that Mr Djukanovic will have to look among the
small parties to find a government partner. To call
an independence referendum, he will have to look for
more backers for the necessary two- thirds majority
in the 77- member parliament.
Meanwhile, Italian investigators and newspapers have
linked Mr Djukanovic's administration to an organised
tobacco smuggling ring. American cigarettes are brought
to Rotterdam. From there, they are transported by trucks
as duty free goods to the Adriatic Slovenian port of
Kopar. Then they travel by ship to the Montenegrin port
of Bar.
The ships belong to a Thessaloniki company registered
in the name of Marko Milosevic, son of Slobodan Milosevic.
From Bar speedboats carry the goods across the Adriatic
to some spots between the Italian ports of Bari and
Brindisi. Then, cigarettes travel by land back into
Western Europe, where they are sold at low prices, costing
Western governments millions in unpaid duties.
In a separate development, Carla Del Ponte, the chief
prosecutor at the War Crimes Tribunal in The Hague,
handed over sealed indictments last week containing
names of Montenegrin officials who took part in bombing
operations around Dubrovnik in 1991. It is believed
that Mr Djukanovic could be among them, as he was the
Prime Minister of Montenegro at the time.
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