THE GUARDIAN (London)
Saturday April 21, 2001

Government parties promise independence referendum

Nick Wood in Podgorica

The final break-up of Yugoslavia will be at stake when voters in Montenegro go to the polls tomorrow in a general election dominated by one issue: whether the mountainous Balkan republic land should declare independence.

President Milo Djukanovic's Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) and its coalition partners, the Social Democratic party, say they will call an independence referendum if they win.

Such a move has been fiercely criticised by the international community, which says it would encourage separatist movements in neighbouring Bosnia and Kosovo and prompt further instability in the region.

The contact group on the Balkans -the US, Britain, Germany, France, Italy and Russia - warned Montenegro earlier this week that it would cut off aid to Montenegro if it pursues the goal of independence.

The latest opinion polls suggest that the independence alliance will win.

But another poll focused on voting intentions in a referendum gave a narrow margin of victory to those wishing to remain part of the federal Yugoslavia.

Montenegro and Serbia are the last two republics left inside present-day Yugoslavia, a state which once included Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Macedonia.

Montenegro fought successfully for centuries to keep the Ottoman empire at bay, and its independence was formally recognised at the international Congress of Berlin in 1878. It was absorbed into Yugoslavia in 1918 at the end of the first world war.

Despite the importance of tomorrow's vote, the run-up to the election has been comparatively low key. Apart from a few pro-government posters on advertising hoardings, there is little evidence of political activity on the streets of the capital, Podgorica.

"I think that people's minds have been made up pretty much already, also we no longer have the problem of Milosevic still being in power," said Sreten Bogojgevic, 36, an electronics engineer. "People are taking things seriously, but with a lot less emotion."

The government coalition has presented independence as both "inevitable" and a natural continuation of Montenegro's development since 1998, the year in which it removed itself from federal Yugoslavians institutions in protest against the Milosevic regime's policies.

Since the feud, Montenegro has developed its own customs and banking systems - it has adopted the deutschmark as its own currency and abandoning the Yugoslav dinar.

The government parties have boycotted all federal elections and none of their MPs has attended the federal parliament. The last remaining federal institution with any clout is the Yugoslav army.

The Socialist Democratic deputy prime minister, Dragisa Burzan, says Montenegro's interests can no longer be served in a federation with its neighbour.

"Montenegro would suffer very much, it would not have a direct approach to funds from foreign governments. We would be represented by a federal government which we can not influence in any realistic way," he said.

Anti-independence parties say they will not take part in a referendum on secession. The People's party (NS) and Socialist People's party say they will win 40% of the vote.

"It's very close. The main political battle will be after the election, because there will be no significant majority on either side," said Dragan Soc, the president of the People's party. "I expect high emotions to increase if Mr Djukanovic calls for a referendum without a real consensus."

In an ominous warning to Macedonia's ethnic minorities Mr Soc said that Muslims and ethnic Albanians - who make up roughly a quarter of the population and are mostly expected to vote for independence candidates - to think carefully before making their decision.

"I am strongly against blaming Muslims or Albanians. I don't want to split our country, but in the Balkans this is a very sensitive issue. I don't want to say they can't vote. But people have to think about it very carefully. They should not be seen to tip the balance. That's my advice to them. I cannot exclude that pro-Yugoslav supporters could accuse ethnic minorities of being guilty."

The possibility of a bitter referendum campaign immediately after the general election has raised fears of a knock-on effect through the region, notably in Bosnia, Macedonia and Kosovo.

But international analysts and government officials have played down the danger.

"It's usually mentioned in the context of Kosovo, but we do not add or subtract in anyway to influence those pushing for Kosovo's independence," said Mr Burzan. "Their minds are already made up."

Peter Palmer, an analyst for the International Crisis Group in Podgorica said that the international community's fears were based on its failure to solve the Kosovo question.

"The status of Kosovo is completely separate from the case of Montenegro," he said.

"Montenegro should not be held hostage to the case of Kosovo, and be made a scapegoat to the apparent lack of imagination by the international community in its policy towards Kosovo."

Threats to withdraw aid from Montenegro would make things worse, he said.

"If the international community's overriding responsibility is to maintain stability in the region, I can't imagine anything more unstabalising than threatening to withdraw assistance... Linking assistance to Montenegro's future political status is bordering on the irresponsible."