ICG: Montenegro's Election - A Test for the Future of the FRY

Brussels/Podgorica 18 April, 2001: The future of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia faces a crucial test when Montenegrins go to the polls on Sunday 22 April. The parliamentary election campaign has been so dominated by the issue of the future status of Montenegro and its relationship with Serbia that the vote has become nearly a de facto referendum on independence.

Time to Decide: a Pre-election Briefing Paper published today by the International Crisis Group provides the latest views from Podgorica and Belgrade, analyses the positions of all parties, and looks at the chances of victory for President Milo Djukanovic, who, despite Western misgivings, is campaigning for independence. The latest opinion polls put pro-independence parties ahead, but the extent of their likely victory is unclear.

The ICG urges pro-independence parties not to be tempted to ignore Montenegro's constitution, which requires a decision supported by at least two-thirds of parliament's deputies to confirm a change in favour of independence. ICG Balkans Program Director Mark Thompson says "in a situation where Montenegrins are deeply divided, it is especially important to insist upon strict observance of the established rules by all sides."

It is equally vital that pro-Yugoslavia parties continue to play by the political rules if the vote goes against them and that the international community discontinue its approach of pressuring Montenegro. Even before the vote is counted, the international community must be seen as playing an impartial role in monitoring the election through the OSCE.

The international community may be lagging behind Belgrade, where senior officials have indicated they will not stand in the way if Montenegro votes to split from Serbia. Mark Thompson urged the international community to "take a neutral stance, and refrain from using the OSCE as a vehicle for opposing Montenegrin independence."

This briefing paper focuses specifically on the election campaign and updates aspects of the more extensive report, Montenegro: Settling for Independence, that ICG issued on 28 March.

Time to Decide: A Pre-election Briefing Paper (pdf file)