Leaked document reveals alleged Kremlin plan to take over Belarus by 2030

Leaked document reveals alleged Kremlin plan to take over Belarus by 2030

A group of European and U.S. media outlets, including the Kyiv Independent, has obtained a 17-page document allegedly detailing Russia’s plans to subjugate Belarus and dismantle its independence.

According to that document, the Kremlin plans to take full control over the politics, economy and military potential of Belarus by 2030, reports Meduza, referring to the Dossier Center.

The document details Russia's future steps to take full control of Belarusian political, economic, and military spheres by the end of the decade.

According to the same source, the main staff of the army, the FSB agency (formerly the KGB), the GRU, the foreign military intelligence agency and the presidential administration led by Vladimir Putin participated in the development of the plan. It's not a new plan. According to the document, the strategy was drawn up in 2021. It is written on only 17 pages, and the political, defense, trade and social goals of the Russian authorities in Belarus are divided into short-term (until 2022), medium-term (until 2025) and long-term (2030) plans. The second part identifies risks associated with the plan.

Meanwhile, the short-term goals prescribed Belarus to complete the constitutional reform "based on Russian interests." In February 2022, constitutional amendments were adopted.

Among the targets for 2022, Russia also allegedly lists "boosting pro-Russian sentiment among political and military elites". This aligns with another Russian short-term goal of "limiting the influence of nationalist and pro-Western forces in Belarus" laid out in the leaked strategy.

Russian authorities expect to adapt Belarusian legislation to Russian by 2030, take control of the country's foreign policy and manage it in the interests of the Russian Federation. According to the mentioned document, Russia should increase its military presence in the country, the number of Russian media and achieve the supremacy of the Russian language over Belarusian. The procedure for issuing Russian passports to citizens of Belarus would also be simplified, which would "create a layer of Russians interested in integration", Meduza reports the contents of the document.

The Russian authorities expect to spread their influence through science and education, and for this purpose, it is said, they would open examination centers throughout the country and establish several centers of science and culture in Mogilev, Grodno and Vitebsk.

Belarus has practically been a Russian satellite for a long time, and the dictator there, Lukashenko, consults the "boss" Putin about everything. Meduza reminds that Russia and Belarus signed an agreement on a federal state back in 1999 and that the negotiations dragged on for 20 years. Back in 2019, it was announced that the countries managed to agree on 28 union programs related to economic issues such as the harmonization of monetary policy and tax legislation.

In a new internal document written by Meduza, it is stated that the Main Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, employees of the GRU, SVR, FSB and the department of the presidential administration - the presidential department for border cooperation led by Alexei Filatov participated in the development of the plan. The Dossier Center says that Filatov represented the Kremlin's interests in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and also oversaw humanitarian and political interaction with the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics.

Meduza writes that the journalists showed the document to outside experts, who confirmed that it looks credible and should be taken seriously. This opinion, Meduza pointed out, was also expressed by the US Ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), Michael Carpenter:

"Russia's goals in relation to Belarus are the same as in relation to Ukraine, only in case Belarus, Russia relies on coercion rather than war."