If Putin loses, a chain reaction starts

If Putin loses, a chain reaction starts

Liana Fix, a fellow for Europe at Council of Foreign Relations (CFR), and Michael Kimmage, a history professor at the Catholic University of America and a senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, discuss the current status of the war in Ukraine, assessing the strategies that Russia, Ukraine and the West are pursuing.

According to them, there are three basic scenarios, each of which would have different consequences for the West and Ukraine.

Also, the extent of the destruction of Ukraine is such that Kyiv would not be able to accept anything other than the complete surrender of Russia.

The second scenario would be a failure in the midst of escalation – that is, a scenario of Russian defeat in the midst of an escalating conflict. The Kremlin would nihilistically seek to prolong the war in Ukraine while at the same time launching a campaign of sabotage in countries supporting Kyiv and in Ukraine itself. In the worst case, Russia could decide on a nuclear attack on Ukraine.

The war would then lead to a direct military conflict between NATO and Russia. Russia would transform from a revisionist state to a rogue state, a transition that is already underway, and this would reinforce the West's belief that Russia represents a unique and unacceptable threat. Crossing the nuclear threshold could lead to NATO's conventional involvement in the war, hastening Russia's defeat on the ground.

The third scenario is the fall of Putin's regime, in which the decisive battles would take place not in Ukraine, but in the corridors of the Kremlin or on the streets of Moscow. Although Putin has brought political stability to Russia - a commendable achievement given the fractures of the post-Soviet years - his citizens could turn against him if the war leads to widespread destitution.

The fall of his regime could mean an immediate end to the war, which Russia would not be able to wage amid the ensuing domestic chaos. A coup d'état followed by a civil war would perpetuate what happened after the Bolshevik takeover in 1917, which precipitated Russia's withdrawal from World War I.

A Russian defeat would free Ukraine from the terror it has suffered since the beginning of the invasion. This would reinforce the principle that an attack on another country cannot go unpunished. This could also open up new opportunities for Belarus, Georgia and Moldova, as well as for the West to complete the organization of Europe according to its ideas.

Although the defeat of Russia would bring many benefits, the US and Europe should, however, prepare for the regional and global disorder that defeat would produce. Namely, since 2008, Russia has been a revisionist power - it has redrawn borders, annexed territories, interfered in elections, intervened in various African conflicts and changed the geopolitical dynamics of the Middle East by supporting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, analysts write for "Foreign Affairs".

Thus, if Russia were to disintegrate into chaos rather than accept defeat through negotiations, the consequences would be felt in Asia and Europe, as well as in the Middle East. The disorder could take the form of separatism and renewed conflicts in and around Russia, the largest country in the world. The question would also arise, if Russia disintegrates, who will take control of Russian nuclear weapons?

Nevertheless, the agreement with Ukraine could bring about the normalization of relations with the West. That would be a strong boost for a less militaristic Russian leader than Putin, and it would appeal to many Russians.

A more accommodating leader than Putin could lead Ukraine to reconsider negotiations. Faced with defeat, Putin may resort to attacks on the global stage.

The text also states that the consequences of a nuclear attack would be catastrophic, not only for the Ukrainian population. The war would continue, and nuclear weapons would not do much to help Russian soldiers on the ground.

Instead, Russia would face international outrage. Brazil, China and India have so far not condemned the Russian invasion, but no country truly supports Moscow in such a war or would support the use of nuclear weapons.

The alliance would likely respond with conventional force to weaken Russia's military and prevent future nuclear attacks, risking an escalation spiral if Russia in turn launched conventional attacks on NATO.