Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment: Russians will "attack" Belarus?

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment: Russians will "attack" Belarus?

They argue that the continued presentation of the nuclear threat is likely a tactic by which the Russians seek to consolidate annexed territory.

"The continued conflation of radiological and nuclear accidents and the constant discussion of the threat of disaster at the ZNPP is likely part of a wider Russian information operation meant to undermine Western support for Ukraine and frame Russian control of the plant as essential to avoid nuclear catastrophe in order to consolidate further operational and administrative control of Ukrainian nuclear assets and compel elements of the international community to recognize Russian annexation of Ukrainian territory at least obliquely," the analysis states.

Stricter media censorship

The ISW also alleges that the Russian government continues to increase its control over the Russian information space: "The Russian government is continuing to increase its control of the Russian information space as a Russian milblogger noted that Russian efforts to shape the information space “look like a kitten against a rhinoceros” compared with foreign “think tanks,” non-profit organizations, and “independent media.”

The FSB is also preparing a regulation that would ban the dissemination of information about the Russian military, which would also reportedly put tighter controls on discourse among Russian military bloggers and other similar sources that often discuss and criticize the tactical, operational and strategic dimensions of the war in Ukraine.

"Both the proposed Duma bill and the FSB decree indicate that the Russian government is scrambling to take control of the information space as it is increasingly inundated by criticisms of the Russian military that are levied both internally and externally. Russian officials likely seek to consolidate censorship measures to crack down on the prevalence of foreign voices and domestic critiques by applying legislative pressure to fundamental algorithms and presenting a wide range of activities that can be considered detrimental to Russian state security", ISW writes.

"The Russians are planning false flag attacks on Belarusian critical infrastructure"

ISW also said that Ukrainian intelligence services reported that Russian special services were planning fake attacks on Belarusian critical infrastructure, especially the Ostrovets nuclear power plant. They say it's probably an attempt to pressure Belarus into going to war with Ukraine.

Ukrainian intelligence reported that Russian special services are planning false flag attacks on Belarusian critical infrastructure in an attempt that would likely fail to pressure the Belarusian military to enter the war in Ukraine. The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on November 20 that Russian special services are planning to conduct several false flag terrorist attacks on Belarusian critical infrastructure facilities, particularly on the “Ostrovets” Belarusian nuclear power plant.

"The ISW previously assessed that the entry of Belarus into the war remains unlikely due to the high domestic risk that interference would pose to the survival of Alexander Lukashenko's regime. It is unlikely that potential fake attacks will change these factors," they write in the new analysis.

Lack of discipline

In its analysis, ISW also referred to video footage showing Ukrainian soldiers killing Russian prisoners of war. Several Russian military bloggers used the video's content to criticize the Russian military and the mobilization.

"One milblogger noted that the Makiivka shooting video is a clear example of how mobilized recruits lack the basic morale and discipline to properly fight for their beliefs and claimed that it is ridiculous that so many Russian soldiers even surrendered to Ukrainian troops in the first place. The divide between milbloggers criticizing the Makiivka shooting is emblematic of Russian military failures, and the Kremlin’s using it to further an information operation against the Ukrainian military may further fragment the information space", ISW concludes.